The champagne isn’t chilling, but Eric Bruntlett has been summoned to retrieve the ice.
With all the controversy surrounding Brad "Hashtag" Lidge, and the fact that the Phillies are headed for an anticlimactic division clincher, possibly in the land of 10,000 sausages, it’s easy to forget that Pedro Feliz will soon be spotted screaming his head off wearing swimming goggles inside a clubhouse draped in Saran Wrap. For players like Pedro, who begin preparing as early as January, there’s cause for celebration to reward a job well done once the Phillies make it official. However, on the heels of the greatest party this city has ever seen, and knocking on the door to a third-consecutive division title, fans seem in no rush to block off 1 Penn Square for a pep rally in front of City Hall. One reader put it this way: "We already know that even if they do find a way to make it all the way through, it can't compare to how it felt last fall. We've experienced the pinnacle and everything else is just gravy. It simply can't mean as much; all the hurdles have been long since cleared, and the wistfulness is for the greater intensity of meaning which has gone more conspicuously missing than Brad Lidge's command. Meaning or not, however, another part of it is that everyone knows they aren't going very far at all in October, and it's going to suck to deal with an unhappy ending looming copiously in the headlights." - RSB
I think RSB's outlook is a little bleaker than it should be. Sure, you're never, ever, ever going to duplicate the sheer joy of that first one. But that shouldn't take everything away from the long ride each and every season is. The postseason is unpredictable. Everyone *doesn't* know that they aren't going far in October. I think everyone's expectations are much lower, but how can you call this one before it's even started?
Posted by: enrico | Friday, September 25, 2009 at 03:11 PM
JW, Odd comment to post, since RSB is the only one who "knows" that. It's extreme negativity based on nothing.
Posted by: Old Phan | Friday, September 25, 2009 at 03:19 PM
Beating a better AL team, like the Yankees or Red Sox, than last year's Rays would mean something. Denying one of those two regional, die-hard fanbases another championship would be great. (Repeat by defeating either of those teams and I guarantee ESPN will call you a dynasty.)
Posted by: joe l | Friday, September 25, 2009 at 03:23 PM
I agree Rick. I think there is no way to duplcate last years feelings but to repeat and do it against arguably better competition will be a true joy to experience. Let's go Phils!
Posted by: Mike h | Friday, September 25, 2009 at 03:24 PM
Hey Clout, if I promise to drop all past crap, make lucid comments, laud you when you're making great points, and only disagree when I have true insight, are you willing to do the same?
To paraphrase Mel Gibson in Maverick:
"Are we going to sit around here and get all worked up about nothing? I just want to play cards." (or in this case, engage in meaningful discussion about baseball in general and the Phillies specifically)
Posted by: SmokyJoe | Friday, September 25, 2009 at 03:24 PM
Why are expectations lower? This team is better almost across the board with the exception of closer.
My expectations are easily as high and I fully expect a deep run in October.
Posted by: CJ | Friday, September 25, 2009 at 03:25 PM
Oh good, now everyone, including the person who runs the site, is joining in the "just assume they'll be swept in the NLDS" party.
Sometimes when I read this I think I might have accidentally clicked on Metsblog. Do Phillies fans come here to read about how miserable they should be? Is that now my job as a Phillies fan? I must have missed the memo.
Posted by: Iceman | Friday, September 25, 2009 at 03:25 PM
The Phillies won't be able to hide their bullpen or their woeful bench in the post season. I don;t think that this team gets by the NLDS, never mind winning the WS.
Posted by: Marc H | Friday, September 25, 2009 at 03:26 PM
Only the 97,98,99 Yankess have repeated in the last twenty years. It would be quite an accomplishment, and only serve to further the advancement of "Phillies Nation".
Plus, it would absolutely eat up the Eagles Brass and the sycophantic press followers (yea I'm talking about you Eskin).
Posted by: SmokyJoe | Friday, September 25, 2009 at 03:27 PM
I am loving this season. It helps to have a little foresight. This season and next (and hopefully a few more after that) are about building a legacy. Guys like Utley, Hamels, Howard, Rollins, etc. are marking their place in history, and its fun to watch. So while it may not have the same novelty as it did last year, when I look back on what will hopefully be a dynasty (and re-watch all those DVDs) I will get just as much enjoyment out of a 2nd WFC as I did out of the first (possibly more, since I was really tired from stress and lack of sleep during the first).
Posted by: Jonesman | Friday, September 25, 2009 at 03:28 PM
"Only the 97,98,99 Yankess have repeated in the last twenty years. It would be quite an accomplishment, and only serve to further the advancement of "Phillies Nation"."
I realize that blacking out 1993 might make sense on here, but Toronto did win it in 92 & 93.
Posted by: Sully | Friday, September 25, 2009 at 03:29 PM
SmokyJoe: I behave no other way.
Posted by: clout | Friday, September 25, 2009 at 03:30 PM
terrible article.
way to be a wet blanket.
I went to the Phils-Nats game last Wednesday and even though the game never was close, you could feel it in the air that the city's getting ready for another playoff run.
I guess the most simplistic way of looking at it is this:
2008: Fans are "jumping out of their skin" excited about the playoffs, are the players?
2009: The other way around---I bet this team can't wait for the season to end so that all the Lidge, 4th starter, bench talk can be over and they can just do the one thing they've done well all season---put up W's. Will the fans be ready? Reading articles like this one doesn't make me too confident.
Posted by: del monty | Friday, September 25, 2009 at 03:30 PM
I, for one, will be happier than I was last year if the Phils win this year because it's so hard to repeat. And I'll celebrate like a sailor on shore leave if they beat the Yankees.
Posted by: Kutztown Fan | Friday, September 25, 2009 at 03:31 PM
Sorry Sully, got carried away. OK, first NL team to do it since the Big Red Machine of the 70s. How's that?
Posted by: SmokyJoe | Friday, September 25, 2009 at 03:31 PM
What a downer. The Phillies are going the playoffs to defend their title. No mass sell-off after winning it all like the Marlins. No choke-job with everything on the line like the Eagles or Flyers.
I'd always though Philly sports fans were pegged wrong because they (we) tend to be more knowledgable about our sports than fans in other towns. But now the wailing and wringing of hands makes me wonder.
When the Phillies suck again, and they will, you'll wish you'd have enjoyed their success more.
Posted by: Doohickey | Friday, September 25, 2009 at 03:31 PM
Also, I'd like to say that in retrospect, last year had a feeling of inevitability to it. The team just would not quit in close games ALL year. However, like everyone else here, I maintained my requisite cautious Phillies fan optimism even up to the clinching game's final innings.
This year's team is very different. While more talented, the gaping hole at the end of the bullpen and the prolonged stretches of deserted RISP leave me even less optimistic than last year.
Overturning a quarter century of failure was worth watching last October... tackling the previously mentioned problems and tossing the playoff dice one more time will be worth watching again this October.
Posted by: joe l | Friday, September 25, 2009 at 03:32 PM
Clout, good use of humor there, but I was being real. I'll choose to believe that you were too.
Posted by: SmokyJoe | Friday, September 25, 2009 at 03:32 PM
RSB: What everyone SHOULD know is that anything can happy in a short post-season series. It doesn't matter if you're the best team or the worst team. You just have to be the hottest team.
Posted by: clout | Friday, September 25, 2009 at 03:34 PM
How quickly we forget last year's interleague games, season=over, losing 2 of three to Nats in early September, losing four straight in LA to Dodgers in September, 8th inning meltdowns in Chicago in the end of August. There never was an "inevitability" last year. Hindsight is so 20-20.
Posted by: SmokyJoe | Friday, September 25, 2009 at 03:37 PM
Except to Philadelphia sports fans, hindsight is myopic.
Posted by: SmokyJoe | Friday, September 25, 2009 at 03:39 PM
I call BS on anyone who says last year had a feeling of inevitability. And if you did honestly feel that way, I bet you also did about the 93 Phillies, a few recent Eagles teams, Flyers against Detroit, etc.
I was sweating every pitch last year, and will be again this year. Same story with every die-hard Phils fan I know.
Posted by: Jonesman | Friday, September 25, 2009 at 03:40 PM
I second the notion that this was a terrible article. JW, you usually have great insights into the current "hot issues" surrounding the Phillies, but you really wiffed on this one.
Am I going to be any less excited if the Phillies win a postseason game, series, or the whole thing? Not a friggen chance on that one.
Am I not going to be upset if they lose? Don't count on that either.
I love this team, and I want to see them win it every year. I have a small amount of patience for a player like Lidge, and I don't care if Jimmy Rollins is closing out games that end in the win column. Get it done, no excuses, party hard.
Posted by: Bay Slugga | Friday, September 25, 2009 at 03:42 PM
BTW JW, excellent job of stirring the pot during a September of complacency. Should get some good emotional responses to this one.
Posted by: SmokyJoe | Friday, September 25, 2009 at 03:43 PM
Beg to differ Smokey, after a bunch of come from behind wins and overtaking the Mets (yet again), Stairs' bomb in LA... Last year I had a quiet confidence about the team (repressed by Negladelphian reflex) despite the given screw-ups and inter-league loses. This year, not so much. It's a great team, better than last, but I feel that their chances are even worse than last year. Maybe it's 20-20, ::shrug::
Posted by: joe l | Friday, September 25, 2009 at 03:47 PM
Do you guys think JW posted this just to get us fired up? Its like in the movies when the coach pretends that he has given up on the team, but then they go out there and decide to win it for themselves, and then coach comes back just in time to draw up the last second game winning play.
If this movie doesn't exist then I stand corrected, and shame on you Hollywood.
Posted by: Jonesman | Friday, September 25, 2009 at 03:47 PM
It's funny how inevitable 2008 looks in retrospect, and, how in retrospect, the Rays are considered not to be as good a team as the teams they beat over 162 last year and the ones they beat in the playoffs.
Posted by: EastFallowfield | Friday, September 25, 2009 at 03:50 PM
Last year's playoffs:
I knew the Phils had a chance to win it all when Myers fouled off a million of Sabathia's pitches until he walked then got knocked home as part of Vic's grand slam.
I felt even better about the Phils' chances for a WFC when Stairs smashed that homer against the Dodgers.
I knew the Phils would win it all when Blanton hit a homer in game 4 of the World Series.
I can't wait for defining moments like that this year.
Posted by: Kutztown Fan | Friday, September 25, 2009 at 03:53 PM
Getting a sense of confidence after Stairs HR that pretty much wrapped up the second round of postseason play means there's still time for this year's team to create that same feeling?
Posted by: EastFallowfield | Friday, September 25, 2009 at 03:55 PM
Nothing like using a quote from one of the more negative posters on here to stir the pot a bit.
No matter how far the Phillies get into October, it's better than the past seasons of total suckage or just narrowly missing the playoffs time and time again. I, for one, am going to enjoy it.
We are witnessing one of the best teams in Phillies history take the field every day and yet we are collectively finding a way to not enjoy it. This is where my affiliation with Negadelphia ends. I can't get behind this movement.
Posted by: doubleh | Friday, September 25, 2009 at 03:55 PM
MVPTommy has to be JW, right? There's no way an actual person can be that consistently wrong. It's gotta be a site traffic ploy.
Lidge should be the closer because he will costs us games, allowing us to finish behind the Cardinals, thus facing the Dodgers on the road instead of the Rockies at home?
And if you don't agree that the Dodgers on the road are a better matchup than the Rockies at home, "YOU obviously don't follow baseball"?
Posted by: DH Phils | Friday, September 25, 2009 at 03:56 PM
What Rico Brogna's up to these days, not to get off the subject of how confident we got after we won all those postseason series last year.
Posted by: EastFallowfield | Friday, September 25, 2009 at 03:58 PM
clout - Your keep bringing up this "hottest team" bunk when it has been clearly debunked by others including guys at Baseball Prospectus0. There isn't much of correlation at all between being a "hot" team going into the postseason and ultimately winning in the postseason.
Posted by: MG | Friday, September 25, 2009 at 04:01 PM
Dan Quisenberry: 6'0"
Dennis Eckersley: 6'2"
Trevor Hoffman: 6'2"
Mariano Rivera: 6'2"
JA Happ: 6'6"!!!
Not only should Happ be the closer, if Charlie has the foresight to do it, Happ will be THE GREATEST CLOSER OF ALL TIME (don't even get me started on Happ's Deer In Headlights Plus Standard Height Index of Truth (DIHPSHIT), which is off the charts).
Oh, and if the Phils manage to repeat, I will be as jacked up as last year.
Posted by: Petey Pablo | Friday, September 25, 2009 at 04:04 PM
Actually, to correct Sully and Smoky Joe---the Yanks went 3-peat from 98-2000... The Marlins won in '97...
Posted by: Delaware Vol | Friday, September 25, 2009 at 04:04 PM
RSB is only right in one aspect:
The 2008 WFC was a cathartic event for Philly fans. The demons were exorcized, and the Curse of Billy Penn was exposed as silly superstition.
However, the tenor and tone of the rest of his post, and his lack of historical perspective renders RSB full of $h*t.
If they repeat this year, it will be not only an historic moment in Philly, but an historic moment in baseball.
Only three NL teams have ever repeated as WS Champs:
'75/76 CIN
'21/22 NYG
'07/08 CHC
(not counting the 1888/89 NYG when the postseason was considered an exhibition).
The AL, OTOH, has had many more repeaters:
PHA '10/11
BOS '15/16
NYY '27/28
PHA '29/30
NYY '36/37/38/39
NYY '49/50/51/52/53
NYY '61/62
OAK '72/73/74
NYY '77/78
TOR '92/93
NYY '98/99/00
RSB, you are wrong. I will be just as excited and just as satisfied.
If they are fortunate enough to repeat, and I am fortunate enough to witness it, it will mean just as much - even more, really.
Our Phillies will be only the second NL team since 1922 to have repeated as WS Champs [and the 1st repeat WFC! :)]
Posted by: awh | Friday, September 25, 2009 at 04:04 PM
Where did clout say you have to be the hottest team 'going into the postseason?'
Don't see how one can argue being the hottest team IN the postseason is a recipe for failure.
Posted by: danger lad | Friday, September 25, 2009 at 04:07 PM
and, oh yeah, RSB should give BAP and G-Town their wet blankets back.
Posted by: danger lad | Friday, September 25, 2009 at 04:09 PM
"BTW JW, excellent job of stirring the pot during a September of complacency. Should get some good emotional responses to this one."
Have to agree with you SJoe, I think JW is calling us to respond, but, there is some kernel of truth behind his melancholy.
I felt it the other night when they played the ad with Harry's call of the NL East clinching play.
He did have a way of defining the moment with his words that hasn't been there this year.
That said, I've been a fan way too long, with way too many last place / second division finishes to fail to enjoy the 2009 version to the fullest.
Let's see what happens to this flawed but still great team and be grateful we are not the Nats.
Posted by: Bubba | Friday, September 25, 2009 at 04:11 PM
Granted expectations have been raised substantially (especially among the casual fan base that are possibly only marginally interested in baseball in general).
Still, I wouldn't call 2008 the 'pinnacle.' Every longtime fan of the Phils I talked to last year said that while 2008 was a great year that it still wasn't the same as 1980 especially given all of the struggles the team had in the late 70s getting over that ultimate hump.
Hell, I always hear the story in my family and my uncle & dad about how crushed they felt while they were at the infamous Phils-Dodgers NLCS game where Lukinski blew it.
Posted by: MG | Friday, September 25, 2009 at 04:11 PM
I didn't go into the city last year for the last game with Tampa because, well, I was so superstitious I thought I had to watch the game from my living room with my arms a certain way on the couch. I took nothing to chance and I certainly didnt want to think I jinxed the team. I missed a great party because of it. This year, I am going to go into the city when this team repeats...and I WILL party like it is 1999. I will NEVER take for granted a Championship. I am sure most of you feel the same way. I get just as mad/sad when the Phillies lose this year as I did last year. I will be just as happy if not happier when we win it all over [insert AL team here].
Posted by: keith | Friday, September 25, 2009 at 04:16 PM
Referring to 2008 as a 'pinnacle' is an exercise in relativity.
As a 34 yo man, I was barely 5 in 1980 and even younger during the difficulty of the lte '70's 'getting over the hump.'
2008 was certainly the pinnacle for me and I would think most of those in my age brackets that were left with the sour taste of the salt Joe Carter rubbed into our collective wounds in 1993.
Posted by: danger lad | Friday, September 25, 2009 at 04:17 PM
MG: I'm not talking about a team that is necessarily hot going into the playoffs I am talking about a team that gets hot once it is in the playoffs. Or do you think the best team usually wins?
Posted by: clout | Friday, September 25, 2009 at 04:20 PM
Normally I'm very appreciative and positive about the posts here, but this one just sucks. I would go so far as to say it is disappointing. I will be more than overjoyed again when they win it all. I will be on Broad Street again. I still have just a strong a hunger to see this team win it all as I did last September. Now we are talking about players like Rollins, Utley, Howard, Hamels, etc... cementing their LEGENDS with the very difficult and rare repeat. This will go from a great team we tell our grandkids about to perhaps the most legendary team in Philadelphia sports history. This silences the critics that say we just beat Tampa Bay in an odd Game 5 in the lowest rated World Series in years. This puts the team on course to having a real DYNASTY, since I like our odds to go deep in the post season and win it all over the next couple of years too. This is as exciting as it gets and to me the fact they won it last year just makes it more intense this year. I want it bad.
Posted by: Len39 | Friday, September 25, 2009 at 04:21 PM
Paul Hoover gets his first start for the Phillies tonight at catcher. I think at 6'1" that we should be fine.
Posted by: CJ | Friday, September 25, 2009 at 04:22 PM
danger lad, it's all about perspective, isn't it?
I don't remember 1964, so I feel no angst about it.
I do remember the failures in the late '70s, and the disappointment that came with it (damn that Bowie Kuhn for letting them play in the pouring rain).
But keep in mind one thing:
When the Phillies won the WS in 1980 it was the first time EVER, in almost 100 years.
Posted by: awh | Friday, September 25, 2009 at 04:25 PM
I, for one, think that winning the WS this year would be MORE thrilling than winning the WS last year.
Don't get me wrong. Winning the WS, after so many years of near-misses, was tremendous. But winning another one would be more tremendous still. As great as last year was, I can't say it was a once-in-a-lifetime event, since I was also there for 1980. Besides, not to diminish the accomplishment, but it's just a fact that plenty of not-so-great teams have gotten hot at the right time and won the World Series. If last year's Series is the only one this group ever wins, historians will remember the 2008 Phillies as simply a good, not great, team that got hot at the right time. That doesn't diminish the thrill of winning it, but it does mean that the thrill of winning it again would be greater still.
If we win another Series, everything changes. 2 straight championships would make this, indisputably, the greatest Phillies team in history, and a borderline dynasty. That WOULD be a once-in-a-lifetime event which none of us has ever experienced before or will ever experience again.
So I won't have any of this business about how another WFC can't compare to what we felt last year. I don't buy that for a second.
Posted by: bay_area_phan | Friday, September 25, 2009 at 04:26 PM
Completely agree with del monty.
This season, as the team has been in first since the end of May, has seemed so long with anticipation of the playoffs, where as in previous seasons, it was all about the chase in late August and September just to get into the playoffs.
Now we're all dying for the real thing to see if the Phils can be a legit dynasty.
I'd say that's the sign of a dominant team, when winning the division is an afterthought, and we're really thinking Yankees or Red Sox in the WS.
Posted by: No-Doubles Defense | Friday, September 25, 2009 at 04:27 PM
"it still wasn't the same as 1980 especially given all of the struggles the team had in the late 70s getting over that ultimate hump."
The fact that the Phillies did succeed, and so quickly with this group of players, mellows me substantially. The bitterness I'd have felt if this group had never won would have been absolute. Whatever else happens going forward, I'm grateful that, at the very least, I've been spared *that*.
Posted by: Klaus | Friday, September 25, 2009 at 04:34 PM
November will come the same, whether the Phillies win it all or are ousted in the first round due to blown 9th innings. Every single one of us will wake up and do the same thing then in either scenario: go on with our lives, our jobs, our families. Memories are wonderful, but they're never as intense and real as "the ride". I pity the fans who can't truly enjoy the thrill of the moment, only having abstract memories after the fact.
Posted by: SmokyJoe | Friday, September 25, 2009 at 04:41 PM
"We already know that even if they do find a way to make it all the way through, it can't compare to how it felt last fall. We've experienced the pinnacle and everything else is just gravy."
What a sad statement the above is. If the Fightin's repeat as WFC, that should be just as sweet as last year because the Phillies have NEVER won back to back championships. It would be a first for the franchise.
Posted by: Steve | Friday, September 25, 2009 at 04:41 PM
BAP-Wow. Very eloquent indeed, and I couldn't agree more. As great as last year was (and it was amazing), winning back to back would mean that much more. Either way, this team is for real.
As an aside, I will admit that if you read the day to day posts here and had no idea what team people were talking about or where they were in the standings, you would never know that this team is 26 games above .500 and has been in 1st place since forever.
Posted by: Old Phan | Friday, September 25, 2009 at 04:42 PM
CJ - agreed. Johnny Bench was 6'1".
Posted by: Petey Pablo | Friday, September 25, 2009 at 04:42 PM
Is Lidge really 6'5"? He definitely seems shorter this year.
Posted by: TNA | Friday, September 25, 2009 at 04:43 PM
Anyone who doesn't get worked up about 3 straight division titles isn't a real fan as far as I'm concerned. I've watched some horrible Phillies teams in my day always hoping for a time like this and now that it's here, I love it more than I thought I would. Sure, there is plenty to bitch about but this is the best Phillies team we'll see in our lifetimes right now and I'm loving every minute of it.
Posted by: Greg V. | Friday, September 25, 2009 at 04:49 PM
JW - a little bit of a downer, eh? I want the Phils to win it all - who doesn't - but realistically, knowing the challenges we've had with our pitching, I'll be happy to go deep in the NLCS ...
I still feel the excitement and pride of '08, still see my rain-soaked Game 5 program and scorecard on my shelf every day, still wear my Shane Victorino jersey with the WS patch and feel damn proud to be a Phillies fan. Unlike the '93 squad, the '08 squad has done their fans proud and continued to play excellent ball the following season. Repeating is a very hard thing to do ...
Let's go Phillies!
Posted by: Chris in VA | Friday, September 25, 2009 at 04:54 PM
What's depressing is the real possibilty that we won't hear the promos on 1210 that declare "...Home of the World Champion Philadelphia Phillies".
Posted by: ozark | Friday, September 25, 2009 at 04:57 PM
This is ridiculous. It's like saying there's no way you can love your second kid as much as the first born.
Agree with Greg V. -- I've seen some awful Phils teams, and I look forward to everything these Phillies will achieve.
Posted by: spccpc | Friday, September 25, 2009 at 05:01 PM
JW's ploy at webtraffic shouldn't compromise the quality of his content. How about everyone promises to click a few ads more than they normally do, and you can concentrate on writing what you and the general tone of your audience feel/think.
Obviously winning a championship in a city that hasn't seen one in over 100 professional seasons across the 4 major sports generates more excitement, but as a Phillies fan, I am almost as excited as I was last year.
I have tickets to Monday's game and have never seen the Phillies clinch a division in person, I have been relentlessly keeping up to date on their magic number and the out of town scoreboard.
I have been crunching stats, splits, gamelogs of every single player on every single potential playoff opponent and trying to decide which scenarios to hope for. And no NL team has repeated since Cincy back in the early 70s, so I am dying to have these Phillies recognized as one of the best the NL has seen in decades.
I could go on and on about how many details of this year has be just as pumped as I was last year(like how I can't wait to tell off all the dumb NYY fans who think winning 1 is just a fluke, but repeating is a true sign of greatness), but I'll leave it at that since it's officially the weekend about 6 minutes ago.
Posted by: thephaithful | Friday, September 25, 2009 at 05:06 PM
I think the wet blankets out there are underestimating the progress of the playoffs. The playoffs are long and the Phils won't be dealing with small-timers this year like the Brewers and Rays. The Cardinals are currently an elite team and probably the most storied NL franchise. Carpenter and Wainwright, Lee and Hamels. That could be legendary. Toss in some Petey Martinez. The Dodgers have their own history of success and, with the NLCS in the rear-view mirror (with Stairs RF shot still barreling behind, closer than it appears), Duncan at 1st, Bowa at 4rd, Lopes at 1st, etc., a reunion would have a deeper plot. The Yankees have to the Pennant favorites. Jeter and Rivera, Jimmy and ... uh ... Madson I guess. New York isn't Tampa Bay. St Pete isn't the Bronx. They don't bring cowbells to games up there, and it will be cold. If the Phils make it through this postseason, no one will yawn. References to Foreigner tunes won't be apt. The experiences are incommensurable.
They beat the stinking Rays last year, friends! In a game delayed midway! The hurdles have not been cleared.
I must say I'm worried about their bullpen, though.
Posted by: Sophist | Friday, September 25, 2009 at 05:09 PM
relating to the post...how the hell does "everyone know" that we aren't going very far in the playoffs?
You guys got a time machine here at Beerleaguer? Jeez, talk about unnecessary negativity...
And I will be just as happy when I see them win a second WS this year.
Posted by: mikeB | Friday, September 25, 2009 at 05:09 PM
From a chat today:
"Kip (State College)
Do the Phils have a shot to repeat even with the issues with Lidge?
Peter Gammons (2:05 PM)
One thing about the NL playoffs is that the Cardinals, Phillies and Rockies all have some sort of bullpen issue. What will be interesting is to see what Charlie Manuel does and whether or not he puts J.A. Happ in the closer role, much like Tony LaRussa put Adam Wainwright as the Cards closer role in 2006 and they won the World Series. Manuel is hinting that he may give Happ a shot at the role. And the fact that he has the lowest oppenent's average with runners in scoring position of any pitcher in baseball is an indicator that perhaps he would work. If he does, with the Phillies starting pitching and lineup, they have a very good shot at repeating."
Posted by: SmokyJoe | Friday, September 25, 2009 at 05:09 PM
I was 30 and living in a Phanless Connecticut when the Phils won it all in 1980, and I went to bed wearing a Phillies cap that night. Last year may have been even better since I was able to listen to Harry Kalas call the last out over and over. And I still wore a Phillies cap to bed. I will be just as crushed if they lose a climactic game this year as I was when...(well we don't need to be reminded of all that), and I have a new hat I bought on a visit to CBP this summer (Phils come back to beat the Pirates in the ninth on home runs by Stairs and Howard—even my wife who doesn't like baseball was standing up and screaming) all ready for the occasion if they win. Count me with those who think maybe the negativity is a tad out of hand.
Posted by: GreysFan | Friday, September 25, 2009 at 05:14 PM
Is this a quantifiable skill apart from the general skill of holding the opposition to a low BA? Happ is Top 40 in overall BAA. His BAbip with RISP is .165.
Happ may be a leading contender for the job, but I'm not sure this is why.
Posted by: Sophist | Friday, September 25, 2009 at 05:21 PM
I agree that the RISP number itself isn't particularly meaningful. Maybe Gammons is just trying to say that Happ has pitched well in pressure situations already, and the 9th inning of a close post-season game is as intense as it gets for a pitcher.
Posted by: krukker | Friday, September 25, 2009 at 05:31 PM
Sophist, I thought the same thing, and frequently have similar quuandries with RISP numbers (both offensively and deensively) and BABIP (primarily pitcher's BABIP). My only question, is at what point (in both duration time and samples) is something no longer considered an outlier but something related to a defined skill set that may be hard to quantify? He's been doing it consistently for the entire year. Maybe his "sneaky fastball" is hidden even more out of the stretch? I'm not sure, but if he does it again next year, I'm going to have to start believing he has some control over that particular situation to produce positive results.
Posted by: SmokyJoe | Friday, September 25, 2009 at 05:31 PM
Sophist - I think it's instructive that not all pitchers fall to pieces when they allow a runner. Lidge is at one extreme, seeming to lose control of his fastball, mechanics and bladder.
Happ is at the other extreme. Like most very good pitchers, he seems to focus better and perform just a touch better when he's allowed a runner.
I think that's an admirable quality in either a starter or reliever.
Posted by: aksmith | Friday, September 25, 2009 at 05:32 PM
krukker, I'm guessing that's his take. Whether or not he can repeat those BABIP numbers in the future is a real unknown, but what can be inferred is that he has composure and doesn't fold under pressure.
Posted by: SmokyJoe | Friday, September 25, 2009 at 05:33 PM
When did Happ go from possible ROY candidate to serviceable back end starter?
Posted by: Old Phan | Friday, September 25, 2009 at 05:34 PM
Also, Sophist, if Happ's good BABIP is luck and unsustainable, does that mean that Lidge's horrible BABIP is also luck and unsustainable, and he will pitch better in the future? I'm just trying to understand this issue through some context.
Posted by: SmokyJoe | Friday, September 25, 2009 at 05:36 PM
New thread, but I hope Sophist will still answer my above questions, in that he seems to be one of the most knowledgable posters on here when it comes to such matters.
Posted by: SmokyJoe | Friday, September 25, 2009 at 05:40 PM
Old Phan, some posters believe the ROY is probably just due to some good luck, and his history (mainly in the minors) along with his peripherals (K rates, walk rates, BABIP, Fly Ball %, etc) still point to being a back-end starter in the future.
Posted by: SmokyJoe | Friday, September 25, 2009 at 05:43 PM
Composure. That makes sense. SmokeyJoe, I don't know. We're talking ~140 PA here. In 149 PA, Pedro Feliz is batting .323 with RISP. Would you rather he be up with men on than Utley or Vic?
Something else I like about Happ. He can hold runners.
Posted by: Sophist | Friday, September 25, 2009 at 05:44 PM
Actually, with the way they've been swinging in those situations over the past month, I may take Feliz...JK:)
Thanks for your response.
Posted by: SmokyJoe | Friday, September 25, 2009 at 05:49 PM
Yeah as what you think the 'pinnacle' of Phils' success varies depending upon your age (I was too young to really enjoy the 1980 championship) but at the same time there is still a clear and close generational memory attachment to the feelings & thoughts of that 1980 championship.
Contrast that to something like the "Whiz Kids" of 1950 which you would have a much harder time of finding current fans who vividly remember that and have strong feelings. The players from that team are gradually passing away as a number of adult fans who watched or listened to that team on the radio.
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Posted by: MG | Friday, September 25, 2009 at 05:51 PM
I would love for them to win this year, but it won't sound the same called by Wheels or TMac as by Harry. Now Franzke, on the other hand, I'll listen to.
But I'm getting ahead of myself. First we have to clinch. And figure out the whole 9th inning thing. Hmm, wonder if the players feel confident with an unsettled BP?
Posted by: GBrettfan | Friday, September 25, 2009 at 06:04 PM
This is forking stupid. I thought I was a pessimistic curmudgeon. This site takes the cake.
Be happy. We have a 7 game lead with 10 to play, we have the best offense in the NL, we have a solid starting rotation, and in all likelihood we will be in the playoffs (a total crapshoot) with a chance to defend our title. Would you want it any other way? No? Then quitchabitchin'!
Sure, I'm as concerned about Charlie's obstinate refusal to rectify the 9th inning problem, but his and Amaro's recent comments suggest that things might be different in October. In any case, things are so wide open in the playoffs, it is hard to say what is gonna happen. Chances are we will lose, but at least we have a ticket for the ride.
Posted by: FuquaManuel | Friday, September 25, 2009 at 06:19 PM
Are you kidding me? It is september we are about to clinch and you are wistful because you can't top last year's feelings. Enjoy the goddamn season. It's like winning the lottery and complaining about the taxes. This site has had that burned out vibe since the start of the season. Considering the history of this franchise, it's sickening the lengths you have to go to be miserable. Stop watching baseball. Stop writing this blog if you are going to be obessively negative about everything phillies related.
Posted by: Lisa | Friday, September 25, 2009 at 08:52 PM
Weitzel - usually you glean good posts, but this one makes RSB look like an idiot. Perhaps that was your point. The reality is that the mind-blowing unlikelihood of the same franchise that set the all-time American sports record of 10,000 losses could follow it up the two seasons after that with back-to-back world championships would make for the greatest accomplishment in Philadelphia sports history. Period.
Posted by: Verdeforce | Saturday, September 26, 2009 at 12:50 AM
Wow. what an atrocious post. This is usually the place for displaced negativity and knee jerk reactions, but this was the topper.
Posted by: Joe | Saturday, September 26, 2009 at 09:37 AM