Yankees dethrone Phillies as champions of baseball

The Philadelphia Phillies' bid for back-to-back world titles fell short Wednesday night in a 7-3 defeat at the hands of the New York Yankees. 

Beerleaguer: Tonight concludes a historic run by a proud Philadelphia franchise, beginning with last season's title capture, continuing with their successful 162-game and division-clinching march through the regular season and ending with their second-consecutive National League pennant. While 2008 became the year Philadelphia was given reprieve from a long title drought, 2009 carried a different meaning for this individual, one that mattered less about winning and more about the bonds the Phillies have created among us. Step back. Look around. What great pleasure, excitement and brotherhood the Phillies have stirred, at a time when unity and goodwill are in such short supply.

I'll issue my final thoughts on the Phillies in the days ahead. Meanwhile, I extend my sincere thanks to the peanut gallery for spending another season with Beerleaguer. It's been a pleasure to serve you.

Comments

[NEPP]

Who are we getting to replace Feliz at 1 year, $1 million?

On the bullpen: Bring up Mathieson and Bastardo, sign Park or Durbin (preferably Park as he's far better), convince Eyre to come back again and you're set:

Lidge
Madson
Romero
Eyre
Park
Mathieson
Bastardo

Done. Too easy. Also sign some retreads to keep in AAA along the lines of Majewski, Lopez, Koplove last year.

The Bench is a huge issue. We NEED a legit middle infielder who can spell Rollins/Utley as well as a speedy 5th OF.

[Bay Slugga]

No starter on this team will be traded. We are not in sell mode. Vic is an important part of this squad.

[Lake Fred]

R.Billingsly wrote: "As disappointing as losing the World Series is, the Phils made it back. They were beaten by the best team in baseball. As much as I do not like the Yankees, I'd much rather lose to them then to a team like the Twins. The Yankees won 103 games during the regular season and have a team full of past and present All-Stars. They were the better team and won. Tip of the cap.

To get back to the World Series proves that last year was no fluke and that they can hang with anyone. With a few minor moves in the off-season, coupled with the talent in the high minors, 2010 could be even better."

I couldn't write my feelings any better than that, so I select R.Billingsly's words to represent mine.

Some of my random thoughts:

Cole got his wish. He's a pumpkin.

Pedro gave his best efforts, but his storybook ending was spoiled by Matsui. I'm not sure how I feel about him coming back, but I thank Pedro for this year.

When I analyze this series, my blame for no 7th game is Brad Lidge's loss. Like my feelings about Pedro, I'm not sure how I feel about him coming back as our 2010 closer, but I thank Brad Lidge for 2008.

Our biggest need is quality starting pitching. Thank God that Rube made the deal for Cliff Lee. That was our only two WS victories.

Chase Utley showed us why he gets the love.

Howard's homer last night showed us that despite adversity, he still tries to pull his team to victory.

Feliz = Non Clutch Hitter

[Bob]

Hugh,

Nothing for nothing, I'm sure there are millions of them (great, loyal fans), but it does make you wonder. I know I went to the prime Rays site last year and posted a brief congratulations for a good series and hopes for a rematch and got some nice responses.

Also can't help but think back to the contrast:

In Philly, when Cabrera caught a ball for the last out of an inning, he faked tossing it to the fans and then carried it in.

Last night, in the 8th in NYC, Jimmy Rollins caught a pop up for the last out of an inning. Even knowing that things looked grim for the Phils and that it might be his last time on the field, he took the time to cruise by the stands and toss the fans the ball.

Then, apparently no acknowledgement of the Phillies by the owners last night?

Don't want to generalize, but...

[FLPhilsFan]

Well, it seems after a great two years all is right with the world: the Phils disappoint again. Their play in the WS was possibly their worst ball all season. Somewhere they completely lost their focus. Notice how many stories there were about the Yankees clubhouse and their "concerns" - nada; from game 2 the Phils didn't seem to have the composure to win it all this year (and from opening day for Hamels). And what was Rollins doing on Letterman? They seemed to be focused on all the wrong things once they won the pennant - and from a team heralded as one with inimitable focus. I know we've got a great core and a respectable front office and staff - but the Phils were clearly outclassed by the Yanks, and I hate it. The Yankees pitchers are going to get a lot of praise, but the bottom line is they were hittable, save game 2, and we just didn't show up. Even Rivera didn't have a whole lot on his fastball, but he just kept playing knowing he could get the job done. Just like all the Yanks. This is the attitude we've been told the Phillies have, but they just rolled over. There are a lot of lessons to be learned from this series so let's hope they learn them and not spoil how great a team we've got.

Thanks Jason for your coverage; this is the only Phillies blog I read.

[G-Town Dave]

"The Bench is a huge issue. We NEED a legit middle infielder who can spell Rollins/Utley, as well as a speedy 5th OF."

Amen! And I'd greatly prefer that both bat RH.

[ftljohn]

Just some thoughts on the end of the year:

- It really was a heck of a year. Someone posted the opening day starting rotation and it was like I didn't even recognize the team.

- I went to my local dive last night to watch the game with a buddy who knows a little baseball, enough to be a fan, but not a baseball guy by any stretch. For the most part, that was the crowd there last night. Once the 9th inning hit, I was at peace. I knew we were going to lose, but I was okay with it. I was just so proud to be a fan of this team. It was akin to watching your 98-year old grandmother pass away of old age. You knew it was going to happen, but you went back and you remembered the memories. It was okay that it was happening. I think I love baseball too much...

- This team is going to be good for a few years. The core of our team will be between 30-32 years old, so I think that buys us another 4 years or so where we will have a legitimate shot every year. I think you'll absolutely see the minor tweaks every year, but I also think you'll see a few major trades by Rube ala Lee at the deadline.

- I'm happy we lost to the Yankees (not happy we lost, but if it was going to be to anyone...). We get the perception that Yank fans are not as knowledgeable as Phils fans, and maybe that's true. But who cares? I could care less about the Yanks. I don't love them. I don't hate them. I am completely and utterly indifferent towards them. That should suffice.

- If today is tough, imagine being a Nationals fan and your seaon ending in early June. Ouch.

Thanks JW, many memories shared on this site.

[NEPP]

Hmmm...Eric Bruntlett is RH and can play both 2B and SS. Problem Solved!

[Cipper]

NEPP: Agree with the bullpen scenario, but Mathieson and Bastardo still have to prove themselves. Will Walker still be in the system next year? He was a VERY good insurance plan this year, and thought he exceeded ALL expectations of most fans.

Side note:
http://www.philly.com/dailynews/sports/20091105_Padilla_accidentally_shot_during_target_shooting_session.html

Vincente Padilla got shot in the leg at a shooting range...

[G-Town Dave]

NEPP: If Gnome is re-signed, the 2010 Season = Over.

[rob bender]

LOL SECOND RATE TEAM FROM THE BIGGEST SECOND RATE CITY (I MEAN DUMP) ON EARTH... NO ONE EVER REMEMBERS WHO CAME IN SECOND... LET'S HEAR IT FOR NEW YORK... THE GREATEST CITY ON EARTH, TITLE TOWN!

[NEPP]

I'm 99% sure that Tyler Walker is a unrestricted free agent. We'd have to resign him if we wanted him back.

[DAK442]

Hugh: you're surprised by the classlessness of Yankee fans? Clearly you haven't encountered many.

[Hugh Mulcahy]

Not to dwell on the game but, what the hell was Rollins thinking stealing with two outs down 4 in the 7th? A brain fart, at best.

[NEPP]

All CAPS is the first sign of great intelligence and intellectural thought on an internest site.

A good throw would have easily gotten Rollins too. He got a terrible jump and seems like he has lost a step lately.

[That Dude]

UD HEN: dude, who are you? Ive been here for 2+ years. Who calls him Shano? uh, me. And now is the time to trade him and make way for MR MICHAEL TAYLOR.

You better open you eyes bro, you think we can afford Lee on the open market? I dont think so and it would madden me to see him in NY.

Bed Beard: thatnks for thr back up mofo.

Rob Bender: I knew your mother. I thougt that bender was her nickname. I didnt realize it was her last name.

[Pete Happy]

A couple of random observations:

-- Fielding was not up to the usual standards. Yankees got some extra out. The clutch double (triple?) plays were noticeably absent.

-- 5 years ago, Pedro plunks Matsui on his first AB. No quesiton about it.

-- I grew up outside NYC, lived in NYC, moved to Philly 15 years ago. Both are great cities, I loved living in NYC, I love living here (despite SEPTA). They are different places and have different good and bad points. If Philly was located in the midwest, with no other culture for 400 miles, people would talk about what a jewel it is. Instead it's 90 miles from NYC and (sorry) pales in the comparison sometimes (depending on what you think is important about a city).

-- Dobbs being hurt was huge last night. No way Pedro bats late in the game if Dobbs could have batted and been a defensive replacement.

[timr]

I'd be pretty sad if Vic went, and my wife would be devasated. I do think he's kinda the heart and soul of this team, and don't think they can afford to trade him, but if it got a big upgrade at third... maybe.

In any case, we've got plenty of time to toss these scenarios around. I definitely think we'll see Taylor playing a big role on the bench and spelling our outfielders more, at least for Ibanez, who is going to need more rest next season. But beyond that, and the departure of Stairs and Bruntlett, I think the rest of this stuff is up in the air.

[Hugh Mulcahy]

is that rob bender or ben dover?

You'd think he could find something better to do today in the GREATEST CITY ON EARTH.

[Anthony]

With the way the yankee fans are acting, you can understand why most met fans in the NY/north jersey area, including myself, were pulling hard for the phillies. As much as the Mets and Phillies have gone at it for the past 3 years or so, I have always respected the phillies organization and the way the team was built from mostly within, and the toughness and never say attitide they exhibited. Of course there are some players that opposing fans are going to dis-like, but for the most part it's tough to knock anything about them. I have always been a big jeter admirer because he goes about his business the right way, but it sickens me when you hear other players like Tex, arod, and CC talk about what it means to win with the yankees....but they all fail to mention how it took another $20 mil per year each for them to come here. And it is the yankee fans, media, and announcers that make them so annoying, unlike the phils. They treat every mundane accomplishment like an act of royalty, retire every number of any player who has a significant moment for them, stop a game mid way thru so Roger Clemens can announce his comeback from the owners box (still the most sickening thing i have ever seen), the list goes on and on. And enough with the 27 WS...i am impressed with all the ones from the 70's thru now, but not so much before divisional play began in 1962 when they had the same team (albeit a great team) and only needed to win the league and advance directly to the WS
Just my 2 cents.

[NEPP]

They're not gonna trade Vic. No way in hell. Taylor will replace Werth when he's gone in a year as we won't be able to afford Werth AND Lee.

[bay_area_phan]

I could easily see the Phillies going after Beltre because they seem to value the type of consistent mediocrity that he brings. For my own tastes, Beltre just reminds me a little too much of Pedro Feliz: good glove, low average, terrible OBP, and decent, but not great, power.

That said, Beltre may be in the same mold as Feliz but he's obviously a lot better. And, during his Seattle years, his road numbers have consistently been better than his home numbers, so maybe there is something to the theory that he'd improve at a new park (although I recall people saying exactly the same thing about Pedro Feliz a couple years ago). Beltre doesn't really get me charged up but, assuming a return to career norms, he would certainly improve the lineup.

Coming off his down year, though, he's a bit of a risk. I definitely wouldn't give him more than a 2-year deal.

[timr]

Oh I also want to add that the Internet should not be a referendum on the quality of a team's fans or the city they represent. Neither should the fans outside of the game tailgating; for evidence of that, just refer to the great Daily Show bit from a few nights ago showing the fans from both cities being douchey. These are big cities with millions of people, and its not hard for a few idiots to find their way onto the Internet to gloat. For the record, all my Yankees-fan friends up here in Brooklyn have been very gracious.

[Old Phan]

Trading Vic to upgrade 3rd base? Worst idea ever.

[NEPP]

Beltre is a legit gold-glove 3B who has averaged a 102 OPS+ over the last 3 years. In other words, a significant upgrade over Feliz and his low 80s OPS+ and a better glove.

[Hugh Mulcahy]

timr - that Daily Show segment was a riot. I expect Yankee fans to be good winners and have to wonder who all these knuckleheads are that pollute the atmosphere on-line. The resident Mets fan at work gave me the obligatory and insincere 'so sorry about your team' and I gave him the obligatory "we'll beat your guys again next year. Think they'll re-sign Pedro and cut Oliver?" and order is truly restored.

[Bedrosian's Beard]

" I could easily see the Phillies going after Beltre because they seem to value the type of consistent mediocrity that he brings. For my own tastes, Beltre just reminds me a little too much of Pedro Feliz: good glove, low average, terrible OBP, and decent, but not great, power.

That said, Beltre may be in the same mold as Feliz but he's obviously a lot better"

-----------------------

"obviously a lot better". Well, isn't that a good enough difference?

[Cipper]

But is beltre worth twice what Feliz is going to be paid?

[NEPP]

Were Beltre and Ibanez close in Seattle? That could factor into going after him. If Raul is asked and says "Oh Beltre, that cancer?!?" then its a whole nother ballgame.

[mvptommyd]

Although a new 3rd baseman would be nice. With what is out there, I don't think it would be worth the extra money to upgrade that position. I would keep the starting 8 as they are now. Upgrade the bench no doubt and add a lefty out of the pen. Then that is it.

My only real big offseason move would be to try to sign Lee to an extension. I would be thinking in the neighborhood of 3 yrs/$36 million. I think that would be very fair and compare that to Beckett's extension he signed after the Red Sox won the world series. Also, Cole signed a 3 yr/ 20.5 extension after last year when he was the WS and NLCS MVP.

[bay_area_phan]

The bench is definitely a huge issue. The Phillies treated it as an afterthought all year & they eventually paid a price for that. In Bako, Bruntlett & Stairs, they managed to have 3 players on their bench who have no business being on a major league roster. A 4th player, Dobbs, is a big question mark after his terrible season, but I think it's reasonable to count on a bounce-back. Francisco was the vaunted bench acquisition, but the more one sees of him, the more holes appear in his game. Francisco is like many of the Phillies' early draft picks: lots of physical tools, yet he's a below average hitter, makes poor base-running decisions, and can't field his position despite decent speed. Maybe they can pedal him to some other gullible team that gets carried away by his physical tools. I don't really want him back.

[rob bender]

hey timr: just killing time between the champagne celebration last night and our victory parade down the canyon of heros tomorrow! enjoy this time, you're all back to what you're used to, feeling like the step child to new york... oh and hey don't forget to add 4 more losses to your historic total, there's something to be proud of!

[NEPP]

****My only real big offseason move would be to try to sign Lee to an extension. I would be thinking in the neighborhood of 3 yrs/$36 million.****

ROFL!!! I'd like to be in the room when they make that offer. He could probably make $18 million per in free agency over more years.

Bringing Feliz back is a HUGE mistake. His offense is non-existent and his glove is not nearly what it was even last year (when he was hurt all year).

Francisco is an okay 4th OF. Just dont ask him to play CF and you're fine.

[Old Phan]

I would agree that the bench is the biggest issue as far as acquisition of players. The BP is a question mark (esp. Lidge), but mainly due to health issues more than talent. Even though Feliz is the worst player in the history of baseball and the Phils would have made it to the WS if it wasnt for him (oh, wait, they did make it!) I wouldn't rush to spend a lot of $$ unless a big upgrade becomes available and they don't have to lose anyone in the process. And I wouldnt let the person who consider trading Vic for a 3rd base upgrade be the GM of a girl's softball team.

[bay_area_phan]

BB: My point is that: (1) he's not really an impact player the way, say, Chone Figgins is; and (2) he's not without risk, since he was actually no better than Feliz this year. But, assuming a return to career norms, yeah, he'd be a sizable improvement.

Tommy: I'd love to lock up Lee, but I don't think you'll get him for 3 years, $36M. The rumor is that he wants a mega-contract, along the lines of the game's top pitchers. It's hard to blame him, since: (1) this will probably be his last chance to get huge money; and (2) he can make a legitimate claim to being one of the top 3 or 4 pitchers in baseball over the last 2 seasons.

[J. Weitzel]

Closer, refortifying the rest of the bullpen, and a .234/.306/.281 in the postseason is too poor to be ignored by the leadoff hitter. These are just of the few issues the Phils need to consider, aside from third base, headed into the offseason. Rollins is a keeper, but the days of automatic entry as the leadoff guy need to end.

Actually, I think the playoffs served as nice sampling of pluses and minuses.

Keep your eye on Ibanez next season and Taylor waiting in the wings. Ibanez postseason: .259 .333 .481 and significant decline as the season went along. At his age, that's important.

[mvptommyd]

BAP & NEPP: That other post was supposed to be with this one. Let's see what Lackey gets before saying that deal is impossible.

[MFiP]

Why would Lee sign for $12m a year when he could get $16m or $17m on the open market? I'm sure he loves Philly, but I can't see him signing for less than $15m per.

[NEPP]

MVP: Also, Cole signed a 3 yr/ 20.5 extension after last year when he was the WS and NLCS MVP.

Yeah, to buy out his arbitration years. Lee is well beyond that point of his career and is a far better pitcher. How many CY awards does Cole have? Lee will be looking at a minimum of a 5 year, $15-20 million deal going into free agency and that's on the low end. If he has another year like this year and last, he'll get closer to Sabathia money.

[donc]

Douchey? Fabulous word. First time I ever heard it. I looked it up in Websters and it had a picture of Rudy Giuliani next to it.

[Old Phan]

Lee deserves Sabathia money. Question is, who can afford to give it to him? I hope I'm wrong, but I dont see the Phils doing it.

[NEPP]

****BAP & NEPP: That other post was supposed to be with this one. Let's see what Lackey gets before saying that deal is impossible.****

That will be something of a baseline but Lee is above Lackey at the moment.

ERA+ for 2008-09:

Lackey - 119
Lee - 154

No comparison.

[Hugh Mulcahy]

The top of the order should be realigned. If that can be done via a replacement for Feliz, great. I can't see them moving Vic. The minor leaguer prospects are stalking the corner outfielders, not center. Plus, he's my leadoff hitter next year if the roster doesn't change significantly. I don't see them making a move for a closer. Too much money in Lidge at this point and, in the bullpen generally.

[NEPP]

Vic (S)
Utley (L)
Werth (R)
Howard (L)
Ibanez (L)
Beltre (R)
Rollins (S)
Ruiz (R)
(Pitcher)

OR

Figgins (S)
Vic (S)
Utley (L)
Howard (L)
Werth (R)
Ibanez (L)
Rollins (S)
Ruiz (R)
(Pitcher)

Easy.

[bay_area_phan]

Lackey & Lee are not good comps. Lackey has won 23 games with a 3.79 ERA over the last 2 years. Lee has gone 36-16 with a 2.89 ERA during that same time. Oh yeah, he has also pitched 116 more innings than Lackey over that time period, as Lackey has had injury issues. In short, one guy is a No. 2 starter with injury risks; the other is a true ace & one of the top pitchers in baseball during the last 2 seasons. Of course, Lee's salary on the FA market will depend on how he does in 2010 but, for negotiation purposes, he's clearly going to operate on the assumption that he'll have another strong season.

[NEPP]

I would offer 4 years, $64 million with an option for a 5th based on innings pitched.

It offers security and a good contract length.

[Hugh Mulcahy]

NEPP, that's basically what I see in my mind's eye. I might have a different lineup against righties and lefties, though.

[G-Town Dave]

I don't like the idea of throwing a lot of money at Figgins. Or any money, even. His career numbers in the Postseason are terrible. Like, even worse than Pedro Feliz terrible:

Figgy - 135 PA .172/.223/.246/.469

Pete - 112 PA .204/.232/.324/.556

:-S

[NEPP]

yeah, I would modify it based on RH vs. LH pitching. That would be my base lineups though (i.e. the one UC would use 75% of the time).

Both are balanced. Rollins in the 7 hole is a great asset. His power and speed are far more valuable in that situation than they are at the top of the lineup.

A pitcher facing the "Bottom" of a lineup going against

Beltre
Rollins
Ruiz

isn't taking the inning off to say the least.

[Mike McNesby]

This is how I would like the 2010 rotation to take shape:
LEE
HAMELS
NEW STUD RIGHTY*
BLANTON
HAPP

* Might need to trade Victorino to make it happen but I'm all in.

The bullpen needs an overhaul:
I'd keep the following:
Lidge ...
That's it. Do what you want with the rest. We need a shutdown bullpen like in '08.

Here's who will positively be gone next year:

PITCHING:
Martinez, Myers, Eyre (retire), Park, Condrey, Kendrick,

POSITION PLAYERS:
Bako, Bruntlett, Stairs, Cairo,

On the Bubble:
- Pedro Feliz $5mm option with $500,000 buyout. (Might want to look at upgrading the bat there. Great fielder, light bat)

NOTE: I would keep Feliz if the Phillies could sign Figgins. Then I'd use Feliz as a defensive replacement or start him and use Figgins at almost every other position.
- Jamie Moyer ... we must upgrade the starting pitching. I'll keep him as a #5 starter if you get me a stud right-hander
- Chad Durbin ... nice reliever but not great
- JC Romero ... i think they want him back but the injury and the suspension might do him in.
- Ryan Madson ... I can't stand him, he can no longer be looked at as the back-up closer or a solid 8th inning pitcher. Trade him.
- Shane Victorino ... don't be surprised if he is put in to a deal to get that right-handed starter. Not disciplined enough at the plate. Incredible fielder, extraordinarily fast. Teams want him.

Your thoughts?

[haha]

Let's go Mets!

[That Dude]

"And I wouldnt let the person who consider trading Vic for a 3rd base upgrade be the GM of a girl's softball team."

explain yourself? Why is this bad. Werth is as good defnsively as Shane in CF and has a beter bat. if we think taylor can play, he brings more power than Vic. I'll grant you, that is certainly an "if", but it is worth pursuing based on what taylor does int he mexican league and in ST.

[Jack]

G-Town Dave: While I also wouldn't throw big money/years at Figgins, basing that decision on roughly 100 playoff PAs is really not very smart.

[Brian G]

Any money we're considering offering to Figgins we should include in a Lee deal. Offer him either a 3/60 or 4/80 extension. If he turns it down so be it.

[Bubba]

JW- Thanks - WS graphics in particular were great.
Enjoyed this year's Phillies ,but somehow the WS just seemed to get away from them as a team. Charlie not making pitching moves soon enough last night was really hard to take. My wife asked me "Why isn't he doing something? Why is he still leaving him(Pedro) in the game?" I had no answer then and have none now.

We saw more urgency in the NLCS / NLDS - they seemed lifeless in alot of the WS.

Not as an excuse for the loss, but how bad is the flu on this team?
Pedro Martinez looked awful- both physically and pitching stuff wise last night, Dobbs was MIA all series, a whole lot of sneezing, nose blowing and coughing by players on both teams.

Pitchers and catchers report in 3 months and a few days- it's time to give the Fox network and their ads a long winter's nap.

[That Dude]

also, I would add that both vic/Werth are about the same age and make the same money, so which player's skills do you think will erode sooner? the guy who skills are based on speed or the guy whos skills are based on power and speed? SELL HIGH

[NEPP]

Shane has much better range than Werth and Taylor is considered more of a LF at the MLB level, not a RF.

You're replacing a relatively young and cheap ($6-7 million after arbitration likely) GG caliber CF who can also hit with an unproven, rookie who weakens the team defensively. A lot of balls drop in with Ibanez in LF and Taylor in RF.

[Bedrosian's Beard]

I don't think they'll trade him, but IF you can get something that helps this team (continue to) win, I'd trade Vic. That's a big IF, but don't let Vic being your favorite Phillie get in the way. I like him, but seeing Damon hit in his position made me wish we had someone else.*

*yes, traded Vic for something else means we'd have to replace the CF position, as well.

[p. Red]

Biggest difference between this year's and last year's WS: pitching.

2008 Starters - 32.1 IP, 12 ER
2009 Starters - 36.1 IP, 21 ER

2008 Bullpen - 11 IP, 2 ER
2009 Bullpen - 15.2 IP, 11 ER

[J. Weitzel]

Also, the debt to Stairs has been paid in full. Also think they probably got all they're going to get out of Dobbs as well, but he's got another year on his deal. Signed two years in offseason. That's one that didn't work out, either. But who knew?

[Cipper]

New Stud Righty = Kyle Kendrick.

I know, I know, Stud is pushing it, but I dont wanna give up on him yet.

[G-Town Dave]

Jack: 100+ spread out over 10 different playoff series. It's a big enough sample. Might as well just keep Feliz -- an idea I'm not at all opposed to, by the way.

[Lake Fred]

BLers have short memories. For years, we kept speculating how to upgrade our CF position. Now we have a real CF that switch hits, runs fast and has some pop at the bat and BLers want to trade him!

[Hugh Mulcahy]

Damn curious to get teh story on Dobbs. He must have been gutshot not to have pinch hit leading off the last inning. Whoever said Pedro looked like hell wasn't kidding. He was huffing and puffing, looked drawn and was slow as molasses. I wouldn't be surprised if he had a bug last night.

I think Pedro's done. He added a nice jolt of personality and mound savvy late this season but, he hasn't been able to hold a spot in a rotation for a full season for years. I hope, for his sake, he goes home to the Dominican, stays there and enjoys some time with his mother.

[G-Town Dave]

Also, getting rid of Vic or Werth right now would be stupid, esp. w/ Ibañez destined to become older & less productive. I like the idea of Taylor being able to step in when that happens, & getting a shot on the bench in the meantime.

[TEB 33]

p. Red, those are stark numbers. Of course the defensive lapses are captured in those ERA numbers...

[Old Phan]

Lake Fred & G-Town, thanks for making some sense!

[Jack]

G-Town Dave: How bout the almost .100 point gap in OBP between Feliz and Figgins spread out over 600 PAs this year?

[rockaintdeadyet]

Absolutely right about the pitching. If Hamels wins his game and Lidge closes his game we win the World Series. They were largely responsible for our win last year - if someone had said early in the year that we make the World Series but neither Hamels nor Lidge has his stuff, you'd have probably agreed that the odds are against us winning it.
I'd rather spend the money on pitching than on hitting. We were an incredibly potent offense all season long; the reason we weren't as potent in the World Series isn't a lack of an offensive third baseman - it's because we were up against better pitching. The Yankees hit at key moments and we didn't, but you can't buy that on the open market (ask the Yankees about A-Rod in the playoffs over the last few years).
Bullpen seriously needs some help - every time they came into a game it was nerve-wracking.

[NEPP]

We already have a set rotation next year. Who would you spend money on?

Lee
Hamels
Blanton
Happ
??? (likely KK/Moyer)

No real need to get another "stud" starter at the expense of 3B, the BP and the Bench.

[TEB 33]

I like the idea of working Taylor in as the 4th outfielder, ease him into the big leagues, acclimate him to winning and give the starters (esp. Raul) some days off.

None of the 3rd base prospects are exciting. Not nearly tall enough...

Look under the couch cushions for whatever it will take to keep Lee for 3 years. If he wants 5, oh well, let the Yankees eat the last few years when he's washed up...

[MG]

Amazing all of the focus on 3B when the Phils have won the last 3 years there with an absolute stiff (Nunez in '07) and a second-tier/third-tier 3B (Feliz in '08/'09) who defense's prowess is not a GG candidate anymore and notably slipped this year.

The paramount question is:

1. Can Lidge rebound as a credible closer? Amazing that the Phils were largely able to overcome one of historically worst seasons by a reliever in baseball in the past 50 years and arguably the all time worst season by a closer.

Given the money invested in Lidge ($12M) and their bullpen ($21M with Madson/Lidge), they aren't going to go out and get another expensive bullpen arm. Its sink or swim with Lidge again unforutnately and Amaro knows it.

2. Rounding out the rest of the bullpen. With the $21M invested in Lidge, Madson, & Romero, they aren't going to go out and spend big money on bullpen arms yet they are going to have to fill at least 3 and maybe even 4 spots. That's alot.

Even though there are a couple of internal candidates that will got a shot in the spring (Bastardo, Mathieson, etc) but this system isn't loaded with a number of younger, viable arms for the bullpen. Nor is there a real guy who has astounding stuff that could be pushed to a key back end role unless the Phils are willing to get really creative and push a guy like Drabek back there.

Given the Phils already have $96M committed next year and have some expensive arbitration eligible players (Blanton, Ruiz, Vic), I wouldn't count on them at all on being big players this offseason nor will they sign an Ibanez-type FA this offseason.

It will be tinkering and likely taking a patented approach the Phils have since Gillick became GM - "Value Village" shopping to acquire depth and hopefully find some nuggets in the rough (Park, Walker) who come with reduced interest and a lower price-tag.

Amaro hit home-runs on his big moves as a GM in his first year but his secondary moves were largely mixed. Curious to see what he does.

[bay_area_phan]

"And I wouldnt let the person who consider trading Vic for a 3rd base upgrade be the GM of a girl's softball team"

I'm not itching to trade Vic & I doubt the Philles would actually do it, but how can anyone make such a generality? Wouldn't it rather depend on who the 3rd base upgrade is? Vic for Michael Young? I'd do it. Vic as part of a package for Ryan Zimmerman? Depends who else is in the package but you'd certainly rather have Zimmerman than Vic.

Victorino's an excellent defensive centerfielder and a pretty good hitter. But, with Taylor waiting in the wings & Brown maybe a year behind him, outfield is the one position we can most afford to trade (assuming we resign Werth, that is). If Vic could land us a legitimate stud third baseman, I would certainly do it. But I doubt he can, especially with his contract status.

[jehosaphat]

Thanks for adding to the excitement of another amazing Phillies season, not only to JW but also to the posters.

This team went further than I had believed they would, considering all of the pitching problems they had this year.

Proud of this team and ready for Postseason 2010

[NEPP]

You really think Lee will be washed up at Age 35 and 36?
He turned 31 in August, if we sign him to a 5 year extension his final year would be the Age 36 season...hardly ancient.

[Clay Dalrymple]

it would be expensive for a bench player but how about DeRosa as a super sub, able to spell at 3B, SS, 2B, 1B, even outfield?
Is he good enough to be your everyday 3B? Don't know. Clearly Dobbs needs some regular ABs to stay sharp so Feliz or whoever shouldn't be playing 7 days a week.
Is Garrett Atkins worth taking a flyer on?

[G-Town Dave]

Jack: Who cares about regular season OPB? Did said gap hurt the Phillies in any way, shape or form? If the Phillies get a new 3B they need to find someone who can drive in runs, & Figgins is not that guy.

[TEB 33]

NEPP: Cliff Lee's period of sustained excellence is now 2 years with another very good year in 2005. Not sure you can project out 5 years with confidence. With pitchers you never know. How does a 37 year old Pedro look?

Also, I was clicking around on internet radio today and came across a Boston station. Those people are much more down today than anyone here. Their daily existance is trying to figure out how to outspend the Yankees for whatever player is the flavor of the month, knowing full well they will never win that arms race.

Good to be a Phillies fan...

[NEPP]

We have $108 Million in committments for 2010 not counting Blanton, Vic and Ruiz. Also, Happ, Francisco and KK will both get renewed so add another $1-1.5 million or so for that. Eyre could resign (probably for another 1 year, $2 million deal).

Blanton made $5.475 this year. I'd guess Arbitration would net him around $7-8 million minimum.

Vic will likely get a big raise to around the $5 million mark.

Ruiz should also get a couple million. Figure $15 million to get all 3 and you're at $124.5 million with the following holes to fill:

3B
3-4 bullpen pieces
2 bench pieces.

I'm gonna bet on a hard cap on our payroll of $140 million. That leaves Rube about $15 million to fill all those spots.

The bullpen is relatively easy (Mathieson, Bastardo/Escalona and Eyre are all very likely to be there). Offer Park something reasonable to resign and hope he does. If he took another $2.5 million that would mean:

Mathieson - $400K give or take
Bastardo - $400 K give or take
Eyre - $2 million or so
Park - $2.5 million
------------------------
Total - $5.5 million
+ - $124.5 million
-----------------------
$130 million total

That's $10 million to fill a 3B starter and 2-3 bench pieces (Middle IF, OF, and backup C).

[MG]

The Phils really surprised me last offseason and for the first time in the 20+ years of Montgomery's ownership they actually put there money where there mouth was and really invested a meaningful portion of the additional revenues they garnered back into the team in the form of an additional $25M in payroll.

They might have a little more flexibility on payroll to the $130M-$135M range but there is no way the payroll is going to get another $25M bump this year.

Given the payroll commitments of $96M and 3 potentially significant arbitration eligible cases (Ruiz, Blanton, Vic) I would be shocked if the Phils make any major moves via trades or FA this year. Chances of them signing a guy like Figgins are somewhere between slim and none (less than 10%).

I also would expect that Montgomery is really going to hit season ticket owners again hard with a price increase this year. Don't be surprised if you see at least a 10-15% bump price on your season ticket renewals that will come around in the next month or so.

It was overlooked but the Phils had the most expensive ticket price increase last year for a team that didn't have a new stadium opening. Even the large increase in Yanks/Mets ticket prices was driven the the uberexpensive seats.

Phils don't have those uberexpensive seats but CBP is still one of the most expensive parks to attend in terms of average ticket price (weighted) and they very possibly might have the most expensive ticket price next year outside of Fenway and the 2 stadiums in New York.

[MG]

Signing Lee to a 4-year extension this year?

That hands down would be the single dumbest thing the Phils could do and you can bet the Phils won't do it.

You NEVER pay a price premium for an asset that has reached its zenith, is very possibly going to be trending downward, and doesn't have a long track record.

Amaro is smart than that and I would be stunned if Lee got should a senseless extension (4 yrs, $64M)

[MG]

JW - Thanks for a great season and I largely share the same sentiments. The most difficult thing in the world is to maintain success at a very high-level for a pronounced period. The Phils did that by repeating this year as NL champs.

Basically the criteria for a successful season was getting back to the playoffs and the Phils did much more than than (winning the NL East and the NL pennant).

[Jack]

G-Town Dave: Who cares about regular season OBP? Seriously?

I hope you're being ironic here. You can't possibly say with a straight face that the only thing that matters when signing a guy is what he does in the postseason.

You act as though the Phillies are guaranteed to be back in the postseason next year, just because they won this year. That's ridiculous. If you can improve a position over a 162 game season, you do that, regardless of what someone's playoff numbers are, or regardless of whether that position hurt you last year. By your logic, we don't need to upgrade anywhere. I mean, we got to the playoffs this year, right? And everyone is guaranteed to do exactly the same next year, right?

I can't believe you're actually making this argument. It's a joke, designed to provoke my response, right?

[Edmundo]

I predict that Pedro Feliz will enter 2011 with an NRI to some lesser team. His power is almost gone and his fielding slipped some this year. Time to cut bait; they more or less got what they paid for. 3B is the one position that the Phils could dramatically improve on, it's worth looking at a major improvement. Getting Beltre on the cheap (if he's healthy) would be a worthy gamble. At his worst, he's Feliz.
Dobbs was hurt most of the year, he'll be back and probably useful enough next year.
Francisco is fine as a 4th OF.
I'd trade Vic for a top-flight 3B but there's no way the Nats trade Zimmerman. :( Victorino is a little overrated defensively in these parts -- he's pretty good but he makes mistakes.
Taylor and Drabek make nice mid-season replacements in case of injury.
The bullpen parts, if they return to health, are decent, assuming Lidge returns to being a good closer. 2008 was a collective fluke year but the 2009 was fluky for injuries.
Goodbye Meathead, I'm sure you will have one year that will make us regret that you are not here but overall, you won't really be all that missed.

[Jack]

FA 3rd Basemen with better postseason numbers than Feliz:

Rich Aurilia
Juan Uribe
Mike Lamb
Troy Glaus

Sign any of these guys, just as long as you don't sign Chone Figgins. I think Mike Lamb would be a perfect fit here.

[NEPP]

What's wrong with Figgins, Jack?

Other than the price, he'd be the optimal guy to replace Feliz.

Mike Lamb is terrible.

[bay_area_phan]

MG: What on earth makes you think that Lee has peaked & is going to start trending downward? He's 31 years old. Barring injury, there's no reason to think he won't be good for at least another 5 years. 2 straight excellent seasons is a pretty strong track record.

There's economic risk in any move, but there's also a considerable baseball risk in NOT locking him up as soon as possible.

[bay_area_phan]

NEPP: Clearly, Jack was being sarcastic.

[G-Town Dave]

Jack: I'm not sure what your point is. Feliz drove in 82 runs (28 more than Figgins), & led the Phillies in hitting w/ RISP. I'm not seeing how Figgins would be an upgrade, esp. seeing as how this team has definite issues hitting w/ RISP. Unless he's batting leadoff -- which will NEVER happen so long as J-Roll is in Philly & Charlie is the manager -- it's a bad fit. Regardless, I think it is more than fair, as the Phillies have now won their division 3 straight years, & considering the amount of money he will likely command, to take into account the fact that Figgins disappears in the Postseason. I'm not opposed to trading Feliz, but I think Figgins is somewhat overrated & would prove to be a bad deal.

[G-Town Dave]

Edit: I meant letting Feliz go, not trading him. Still ... need ... more ... coffee ...

[NEPP]

****NEPP: Clearly, Jack was being sarcastic.****

Its sometimes hard to tell on BL.

I think Figgins would be too costly and want too many years to be worth it. He had a great year this year but was barely average in 2008. Which is the real Figgins.

Besides his speed is going and he's not the guy that could play any position on the diamond anymore. He's a 3B/LF now. Short-term (1-3 years) he'd likely be a good fit but any more than that and he'd kill our payroll. He'll get far too much money.

Beltre might be had on a 1 year contract to "prove" he's healthy again. Or 1 year, 1 year option type deal.

[Brian G]

MG: You think Lee for 4/$64 would be "senseless"? I'd do that in a heartbeat(look what the lesser AJ Burnett got last offseason). I understand the concept of not buying high on an asset, but we have leverage NOW, and won't next year when he's a free agent. He's a top tier talent, and if we don't sign him this year then we lose that talent for good, because there's no way we'd outbid the other suitors.

[NEPP]

Figgins OPS+

2006 - 85
2007 - 117
2008 - 82
2009 - 107

Which is the real one?

[clout]

Sometimes I think flipper is being paid by Feliz to monitor negative comments on blogs. Even the slightest criticism prompts an impassioned defense from flipper.

Feliz ranked at the bottom of all offensive 3Bmen in his last year with the Giants. He has continued to rank there ever since. Last year, you could make the case that his glove offset the weak offense, especially if you believe, as most here seem to, that 3B is one of the 4 most important positions on the field. But that is no longer the case. He was already slow, but is even slower now and while his arm is great, his hands flawless, his range is now below average. He is now a weak link on this team.

That said, it is silly to blame him for either last night's loss or the loss of the series. Just as silly as it for flipper to proclaim him the winner of the 2008 world championship just because he happened to drive in the final run of a series that the Phillies won 4 games to 1.

[PS]

Hey Guys

[Phils Rule]

Hey guys

[NEPP]

By almost any Defensive metric, Feliz's glove no longer compensates his bat.

Feliz is not the reason we lost last night, nor is he the reason we "only" made it to Game 6 of the World Series. Feliz didn't pencil himself into the 7 spot nor did he pitch any innings in the WS. He was worth what we paid him for the past 2 seasons. He simply isn't worth keeping beyond that.

[Old Phan]

Clout, the issue for me is that regarding Feliz, the punishment doesn't fit the crime. It's hard not to defend him when you read some of the vitriolic attacks against him, most of them because some people seem to have personal issues that are over the top. The Phils have gone to the WS twice with him on the team, so although he may be a weak link, he wasn't THAT much of a weak enough to blame him for the whatever the Phillies ills were. If they replace him, fine. I'll live. But would I start selling off other starters (like Vic) to do it? Hell, no.

[bay_area_phan]

NEPP: That's exactly why I think Figgins will be hard-pressed to get a 5-year deal. In 2007 & 2009, he was a terrific player. In 2006 & 2008, he was a sub-standard offensive 3rd baseman. That said, OPS isn't really a fair measurement for a guy who would be batting leadoff. Even in his down years, Figgins has usually been good at getting on base. On a 3-year deal, I think he'd be a great acquisition for the Phillies.

[Old Phan]

BAP, assuming UC is willing to not have Rollins or Vic leadoff, yes?