Game chat: Moyer has a tough act to follow today

On the heels of Roy Halladay's perfect game, Jamie Moyer (5-4, 4.55) toes the slab against Anibal Sanchez (4-2, 3.23) as the Phillies take aim at a memorable sweep of the Marlins. First pitch is 1:10. Enjoy your holiday Sunday everyone. [Jump to the newest comments]

Comments

[goody]

How can you compare this team to the Royals? KC just scored 9 runs off Wakefield in 3.2IP the other day.

[Bob]

They say good pitching will beat good hitting, but we're sure seeing a demonstration of how lousy hitting can sandbag good pitching.

[GTown_Dave]

Something's gotta give. Measures must be taken. I suggest sacrificing Francisco to Jobu. Get the fear outta them bats.

[GBrettfan]

"How can you compare this team to the Royals? KC just scored 9 runs off Wakefield in 3.2IP the other day."

They did? Holy cow - Then I posit the theory that the Phils have swapped places, a Freaky Friday kind of thing, with the Royals!

[Scott]

Ted Williams' frozen, decapitated head could do a better job than Milt Thompson...

[GTown_Dave]

goody: You are doing a poor job of making me feel better about this team.

[curt]

We could put 4/8 of today's starting lineup on waivers and not get a single nibble. That's not even the reason we didn't score, but it doesn't help.

[MG]

The reasons they are struggling are simple:

- They are hitting at all with RISP the last week. That will even out sooner than later.

- They aren't BB that much (21 BBs last 8 games). That won't change that much in the next few games because you have a couple of guys in this lineup who don't take walks (Castro, Polanco, Valdez) and 2 regulars who had a big dropoff in their BB rate this year so far (Howard, Vic). Phils are just 11th now in BB in the NL. This is a huge contrast to the Phils' offenses the past few years.

- They aren't hitting any HRs. Gload's PH blast in the 9th last Sunday was the last HR. A couple of guys have had notable power drop-offs so far this year (Howard, Ibanez) and Phils aren't getting any power from the SS position with JRoll out.

Ibanez likely won't hit 20 HRs and I bet that Howard doesn't hit 40+ HRs this year either. Now just 5th in the NL and Phils will be hard pressed to reach 200+ HRs this year. If they don't, it will be the first time since '05 they didn't hit at least 200+ HRs.

- Utley/Howard/Werth are hitting .109 on this road trip. That will change & frankly I am as worried about that.

[MG]

curt - Some team would take Francisco but yeah Valdez, Castro, and Schneider would all pass through waivers.

[MG]

Moyer has one of his better outing against the Fish but is a tough luck loser today to fall to 13-6 now in 19 GS vs. Fish in a Phils' uniform.

Geezer was only 3-3 this month but his ERA was 3.66 in 6 GS and kind of

27 GS, 182 IP, 13-10, 3.31 ERA, 1.14 WHIP, 2.1 BB/9, 5.7 K/9, 2.7 K/BB

Starters have gone deep into games (6.7 IP/GS), given the Phils really good results, and more importantly keeping the bullpen on the sidelines. It paid dividends this month & possibly later this season.

[ozark]

At least there are more Flyers games this week.

[clout]

To look on the bright side, the Phils have gotten pretty good pitching from the back end of their rotation this season despite the steady stream of moronic posts from BAP, G-town, flipper, Jack etc. that Moyer and KK don't deserve to be in the major leagues, washed up, can't be successful, don't strike out enough hitters etc., etc.

Now maybe if this almost-always-wrong crew starts bitching about the offense, the hitting will return.

[clout]

MG: "Ibanez likely won't hit 20 HRs and I bet that Howard doesn't hit 40+ HRs this year either."

Yeah, it's way, way too late in the season for those guys to reach career norms. Can't possibly happen. I mean, look at Pat Burrell in 2007. He was hitting .202 with 8 HRs on June 30! As flipper and numerous other posters said at the time, it was not humanly possible for him to finish the season at his career nor...oh wait.

[MG]

clout - There is a better chance that Ibanez hits 20 HRs but he has only hit 17 or more HRs after Memorial Day 3/8 last seasons including 2 when he was much younger (2002 & 2006 at 30 and 34 respectively). Odds are that he doesn't 17+ HRs for the remainder of the season. It could happen. I doubt it does. All I know is that my two bets on his 'under' at 28.5 HRs this season are looking pretty much like sure money.

Howard still has a fair shot (say 40% or so) hitting 40+ HRs at this point. Needs to hit at least 32 HRs Here are his HR totals after May 31st-end of season:

2006 - 40
2007 - 38
2008 - 33
2009 - 31

His power numbers though all have been declining (HR/AB, % FB/HR) every year since '06. That is why I bet he doesn't hit 40+ HR. Still somewhere in the mid-to-high 30s but not 40+

[Scott]

Braves won.

[doubleh]

Phillies still have plenty of time to figure it out, but, don't look now b/c Atlanta's only 1/2 game back, have won 5 straight and their run diff is only 5 back of ours at this point.

They may have finally figured it out. Meh, now all their maggot fans are going to come out of the wordwork with their nonsense.

Hope the Phils finally put it together this week and figure out a way to take 2 out of 3.

[Scott]

doubleh: I think that "way" would involve two more perfect games and a few unearned runs.

[holy mackerel]

besides Dominic Brown- do the PhillieS have any AA AAA position players that are ML ready or did we trade everything away last year?

[clout]

MG: I understand that. All true. But Ryno hi 45 HRs last season, which means even a 10% drop puts him at 40 (or 40 1/2 to be precise, which I guess means an extra double.)

[Scott]

I think we need to see how Dominic Brown handles AAA before we declare him ML ready.

[clout]

holy: What's your definition of "ML ready"? If you mean right now, I'd say no, not even Brown.

[doubleh]

Scott: It just can't. Logic would dictate that one or two of these guys have to snap out of their funk this week. And they can't keep hitting into bad luck with RISP. It's all gotta normalize sooner or later.

I would prefer sooner.

[Bruce Ruffin]

The whiney Bruce wants to rip RAJ for locking everyone up with long-term contracts and removing any motivation to win. 'Cept Jason Werth desperately needs a huge season, starting about 10 days ago, to ensure his monster contract. Sensible Bruce knows that the "complacency due to big contracts theory killed motivation to hit and win" is B.S.

I have no freaking clue. Seems like just yesterday that 1 in 10 (best guesstimate) of Ryan Howard’s "excuse me" bloops left the yard the opposite way. I'm still leaning towards exorcism. This spell is evil.

[Voice of Reason]

*I think GTown's right. The AL team these guys most resemble currently is the Royals. Ugh.*

The Royals have the 2nd best BA in the MLB right now at .278, and banged out 20 hits against Tim Wakefield two days ago. I'd take the Royals right now.

[GTown_Dave]

My, but isn't clout feisty today! Must be Ice Cream Night at the Home. No sprinkles, please, they anger up the blood!

Also, the Phutiles have not been shut out so many times over an 8 game span since 1969 ... & we all remember what a powerhouse that ball club was.

[GTown_Dave]

VoR: I was originally going to typr "Chicago White Sox", but I didn't want to get an angry baseball from Ozzie Guillen in return.

[GBrettfan]

VOR, Thanks for the info. I might have to start following my old team again. I guess changing managers gave them a shot in the arm.

[GTown_Dave]

It's time for another pointless wrist-slap from MLB!

Hoffman Gets His Billmeyer On

[GBrettfan]

This is a really great article about Halladay's perfect game "behind the scenes" from Matt Gelb:

http://www.philly.com/philly/sports/phillies/20100530_Behind_the_scenes_at_Roy_Halladays_perfect_game.html#axzz0pSZdAx4H

[MG]

clout - Yeah it would be more a symbolic deal if Howard finishes under 40 HRs this year. He probably will still finish in Top 10 in MLB in homers and top 5 in the NL. It just would be a notable dip in his production if he went from say 45 last year to 35 or 36 this year.

[clout]

MG: "It just would be a notable dip in his production if he went from say 45 last year to 35 or 36 this year."

Totally agree. A drop to 35 would be nearly 25%, which would be quite alarming. I don't think it happens.

[R.Billingsly]

This scoring drought is getting a bit old. Tomorrow off and the bats come alive on Tuesday. We'll put a little distance between us and the Braves.

[NEPP]

How many runs is that for the last week or so?

5? 6?

Pathetic.

[gm-carson]

The Phillies have played 49 games this season and have been held to 2 or less runs in 17 of them, including 6 shutouts. That's 35% of the games they're scoring less runs than in the Dead Ball Era and 12% of the time they're getting Roy Halladayed by the other team.

[Scott]

Nothing there to worry about, gm-carson. Know why? The beginning of this article from last week explains:

Slump baffles Thompson

By: RANDY MILLER
Bucks County Courier Times

PHILLIES NOTES

NEW YORK - Seeing a reporter headed his way Thursday, Phillies hitting coach Milt Thompson smiled and called out, "I've got no answers."

Heading into Thursday's rain-delayed series finale with the New York Mets, the Phillies had scored a measly three runs in their last four games, each of them coming in the ninth inning of a blowout loss to Boston last Sunday.

What's going on?

"We need to go back to work," Thompson said. "You can't do anything about it."

See, Milt has it all figured out, and knows exactly what needs to be done.

[bay_area_phan]

clout: I think Howard will probably get to 40 homeruns & Ibanez certainly has a chance at 20. But if you're using Pat Burrell's 2007 season to make your case, then you're engaging in the same "limited case" fallacy as when you use Paul Byrd to "prove" that a pitcher's inability to either strike batters out or induce ground balls is no impediment to major league success.

Burrell's 2007 season is an anomaly. You like to cite the truism that players usually perform to career norms. But that truism is subject to a major caveat: players do NOT usually perform to career norms when a significant portion of the season is already in the books and they are well off that career norm pace. For every season like Pat Burrell's 2007 season, there are dozens like Ryan Howard's 2008 Jimmy Rollins' 2009 seasons -- seasons where a guy posts first-half numbers which are so ridiculously below his career norms that, even when he normalizes in the second half, he still ends up with a year that is well off of his norms. And, of course, the converse is true too; if a guy has a ridiculously good first half, there's a pretty good chance that he's going to wind up well above career norms, even if he normalizes in the 2nd half (Ibanez's 2009 season being an excellent example).

Memorial Day is a bit too early to conclude that, because a guy is pretty far off his career norms, he isn't likely to reach those norms. But July 4 certainly would not be too early to draw that conclusion.

[Tray]

What b_a_p said is true.

[gobaystars]

It was the best of times, it was the blurst of times

[goody]

R.Bill: If the Phils take off tomorrow, they forfeit.

[GTown_Dave]

Now is the Summer of our discontent ...

[phargo]

Good Morning.

Urrrrrrrggggghhhh. Poor PopPop, that was a nice effort from him.

[joe l]

In brighter news, is this the week JW reveals more info on Beerleaguer II?

[Meyer]

Maybe "square up" and "get your foot down" will get a shot at hitting coach. He can also do the play by play on the PA system, relaying the pitches from Mick Owlmeyer in center.

[clout]

BAP: As usual, you don't know what you're talking about. Pick a dozen everyday players at random and look at the splits between first and second halves. Burrell's 2007 was more extreme than most, but the idea that players don't rebound from lengthy slumps (or cool down from lengthy hot streaks) is absurd.

Most players end up pretty close to their career norms at season's end despite hot and cold streaks, a sabremetric truism that you apparently don't accept.

Also, Howard was "well off" his career norms in 2008?

[GTown_Dave]

Matt Gelb: "Brad Lidge has been activated. Nelson Figueroa is DFA"

[GTown_Dave]

Zolecki: Today's Lineup @ ATL Gload RF, Dobbs 3B, Utley 2B, Howard 1B, Victorino CF, Ibañez LF, Ruiz C, Valdez SS, Blanton P.

[GTown_Dave]

Isn't being "Hitting Coach" of Charlie's Phillies kind of a ceremonial position at best, much like being the "Offensive Coordinator" of Andy Reid's Eagles?

Regardless, ultimate responsibility resides w/ the guys at the plate. The Phillies' 3-4-5 hitters are all batting sub-.150 during this stretch (8 Games Beginning 22 May):

Utley - .133/.212/.200/.412

Howard - .148/.281/.148/.429

Werth - .111/.143/.148/.291

Ibañez is batting .238/.333/.381/.714 in that same span ... which looks wonderful in comparison w/ 3-4-5, but still blows goat.

In the end it's a shame that Rollins (& more recently Polanco) have been out, but their absence is no excuse. The middle of the order has been beyond awful, & it's killing the team right now.

[GTown_Dave]

In other news:

Oliver Perez Refuses Minor League Assignment

Say what you will about Brett Myers, but he took being demoted like a professional, & it paid off for both him & the team.

[Scott]

When the guys at the plate prove they are completely lost, then it is the job of the hitting coach to give them a map. People here are quick to criticize Charlie for all sorts of things, Dubee for inflicting Cutteritis on his guys, Perlozzo for his randomness in sending and holding runners, so why does Milt Thompson always get a free pass?

[gobaystars]

Yup, Milt doesn't get grief because Charlie is really running the hitting show. He is the mastermind of the operation. Milt probably has a similar hitting philosophy and acts as a second set of eyes, but Charlies is the hitting expert. Regardless, the two of them need to right this ship now.