For the second game in a row, the Phillies were befuddled by an opposing knuckleballer as R.A. Dickey became the latest to stymie the listless bats of the defending division champs. The Phillies fell 8-0 in ugly form.
Beerleaguer:
The game felt very much like the first time these teams
met. The Phillies were carrying some baggage into that one, too, while
the Mets were riding a hot streak and had stolen away first place. Here, the Mets are coming off a series win against the Yanks. From
the Phillies' point of view, their skid was considered an anomaly. But after
the Phillies fell 9-1 in the opener, there was a sense that something was definitely wrong, and that something
had to give. They eventually broke through for a 10-0 hammering the next day and
would go on to win 12 of their next 15 games, basically staying hot
until this recent 3-4 homestand.
One would hope the Phillies have the fortitude to turn it around just as quickly. However, if you're an opposing pitcher, these last few games have been like a treasure map on how to gameplan the Phillies. They want fastballs. They want big innings. They do not want to trade power for the slow bleed of small ball, which is precisely what happened to them last night. Take these elements away, and these lions can be tamed.
It's hard to pick on one player, but damn if this skid doesn't coincide with Carlos Ruiz's sprained knee and ensuing slump. Chooch looks like a guy who should have gone on the 15-day DL. Coming into the game, he had just one hit in his last 20 plate appearances since the sprain. So the Phillies are dealing with something of a black hole at the bottom of their lineup. Juan Castro can't be counted on to produce, and ahead of Chooch, they've got a left fielder in Raul Ibanez with three whole homers this season.
The Phillies are a good team, but these pressure points are becoming exposed: Castro, Ibanez, parts of their bullpen, like David Herndon and Nelson Figueroa, are passable solutions, but for how long?
Of course, the big problem last night was their back-breaking non-execution with runners in scoring position. They left the bases loaded twice against Dickey, including a killer 1-2-3 double play in the second off the bat of Chooch. Then in the seventh, they had runners on second and third with no outs and Chase Utley, Ryan Howard and Jayson Werth went down in order. Ugly night for Chase, who was 0-for-5 with 2 Ks.
The other big concern - Jason Werth's fielding. He's struggling. A lot.
Posted by: JoefromCamden | Wednesday, May 26, 2010 at 09:27 AM
Jason, you did it now, resurrecting the dreaded "Black Hole" terminology to describe the bottom of the order.
Posted by: Lake Fred | Wednesday, May 26, 2010 at 09:37 AM
Admittedly, I was very happy when the Phillies decided to extend Ryan Howard for 5 years. That having been said, his futility against soft tossing left handers is becoming more than a casual concern.
This team has to reconnect with the concept that contact is a good things and that 5 run homers are impossible.
Posted by: Marc H | Wednesday, May 26, 2010 at 09:50 AM
Charlie's not happy about the way the team has been playing, either:
“We’re getting outplayed and outhustled,” he said after Tuesday night’s loss. “The last three or four games we’ve been playing real bad. Tonight, we could have had more enthusiasm and we could have played better. We’re playing bad right now. It’s pretty hard to sit and watch. I’d like to see a little more life and enthusiasm, a little more get-up and go.”
(Quote from Jim Salisbury article on csnphilly.com.)
“You guys always say we’re resilient. We didn’t look too resilient tonight.”
Salisbury also makes the point:
"The Phils will look to turn things around Wednesday night, but prospects of an offensive resurgence might not be promising. They are 5-7 against left-handed starters and will face lefty Hisanori Takahashi."
Posted by: GBrettfan | Wednesday, May 26, 2010 at 09:54 AM
Boy, who knew Howard couldn't hit lefties. . . I mean that outta leftfield.
Posted by: Jbird | Wednesday, May 26, 2010 at 10:11 AM
If anything good comes of this, maybe it will bring some demureness to some of the posts here at BL. I was kinda growing tired of the chest thumping and lack of perspective.
Posted by: phanatic's brother | Wednesday, May 26, 2010 at 10:13 AM
I think now would be a good time to bring up Dom Brown and have him split time with Ibanez in LF. He may be the spark they need right now.
Posted by: UD Hens | Wednesday, May 26, 2010 at 10:22 AM
i like how JW made Ruiz the scapegoat by blaming Ibanez.
Posted by: thephaithful | Wednesday, May 26, 2010 at 10:25 AM
Cholly needs to use this lineup, when everybody gets healthy:
Rollins
Polly
Utley
Werth
Howard
Vic
Ibanez
Ruiz
Pitcher
They have to break up Utley and Howard in the middle of the lineup. Everybody in baseball is going to do the same things late in games. Put a lefty reliever out there and neutralize the Phils power. By putting Werth in the 4 hole, it becomes much harder to do this. Plus Werth is a good OBP guy, so it could give Howard more ducks on the pond.
Howard can't hit lefty relievers. Never has and never will, it appears. Continuing to watch him flail away and then either take fastballs or be way late on hittable fastballs (because he is guessing a off-speed pitch is coming) is painful. He's been doing it for years and doesn't look like he will ever adjust.
Vic in the 6 hole, lets him be more aggressive as a base stealer. Ibanez hits behind him and if Vic is on 1st, opens up the hole on the right side for him to pull a ball into. Plus Vic's ability to hit righthanded, also makes it tougher to mix-and-match late in games.
This team can be neutralized late in games by lefty relievers. By having a more balanced righty/lefty lineup, it at least gives you better matchups late in games.
Posted by: denny b. | Wednesday, May 26, 2010 at 10:25 AM
I'd give that lineup a try, dennyb.
Posted by: GBrettfan | Wednesday, May 26, 2010 at 10:27 AM
Thank you GBrettfan for those quotes. I agree with Charlie, watching these last 3 games has been awful. Not entertaining at all and I got the feeling at times like everyone wasn't clicking on all cylinders. Turned off the TV after all 3 at about the 4th inning. One thing to watch an entertaining loss. Another to watch your team get embarrassed...leaving the bases loaded with 0 outs and another with 2 RISP and 0 outs and getting no runs out of that? Blech.
Posted by: Heather | Wednesday, May 26, 2010 at 10:29 AM
I turned the game on in the 3d or 4th inning and the first play I saw was a soft foul by Wright toward the first base dugout. Ryan Howard didn't move a muscle toward trying to catch the ball, opting to watch it land harmlessly in the dirt. Not sure if he could have caught it but, he could have gotten close. The next play was the pop up that Victorino lost in the lights, or something, that went for a double. It just got worse from there. Really brutal team to watch the last couple games. One bright spot was Polanco who was sporting a Ty Cobb-esque grip on the bat. I never noticed him choking up and holding his hands apart like that before. Is that his normal grip?
Posted by: Hugh Mulcahy | Wednesday, May 26, 2010 at 10:30 AM
Ibanez since April 20: .276/.373/.469 (118 PA, 11.2% XBH, 17.8% I/BB)
He's reached base in all but 1 of his starts this month.
He probably won't hit 30+ HR this year, but he'll probably end the year as the 1st or 2nd best 7-hitter in the NL.
Posted by: Sophist | Wednesday, May 26, 2010 at 10:32 AM
The Phils hitters over the last 7 days
Utley: .333/.500/.667 (20 PA)
Rollins: .300/.417/.600 (12 PA)
Raul: .313/.421/.438 (19 PA)
Werth: .250/.250/.563 (16 PA)
Howard: .188/.316/.375 (19 PA)
Polanco: .200/.294/.333 (17 PA)
Castro: .222/.222/.333 (9 PA)
Vic: .105/.227/.158 (22 PA)
Ruiz: .000/.167/.000 (12 PA)
Posted by: Sophist | Wednesday, May 26, 2010 at 10:37 AM
Full disclosure: Mets fan here.
From a casual read, Phillies fans seem as neurotic as Mets fans (certainly of Mets fans of the past 3-4 yrs) - I mean, you guys are practically the starting lineup of the All Star team. Halladay's here, who feels as an upgrade to Lee... Hamels pitching better. In first place.
Why all the worry? Yes, bullpen, yes, holes, but is that diff than any other team? Skankees can say same thing...
Posted by: Tripworks | Wednesday, May 26, 2010 at 10:39 AM
Tripworks, nice to see an injection of sanity.
Posted by: Old Phan | Wednesday, May 26, 2010 at 10:42 AM
Last night was the first game I turned off early. It was a pathetic display of baseball. But, you're going to see every team have a few games like this. So, am I worried? A little. Two knuckleballers in a row sound to me like they could really mess with a batter's head and throw them in a funk that could last a few games. Wouldn't suprise me if they are light on the runs for a few days.
Posted by: Greg V. | Wednesday, May 26, 2010 at 10:43 AM
denny b - Agreed. Utley did lose a little power vs. LH relievers but the main issue is Howard.
Teams simply don't pitch around him anymore and if they have a lefty reliever available/on the mound they go right after him. Manuel did that last night with Valdez & got a K in the bottom of the 7th.
Makes sense because Howard now is around 50% K rate against lefty relievers the last 2 years. That is astoundingly bad. You shouldn't be able to neutralize a cleanup hitter so easily and effectively.
Breaking up Howard/Werth makes it more complicated for an opposing manager to matchup his marginal LH reliever against the top of the order if it is Utley-Werth-Howard. Instead, I take my chances with Vic & Polanco with a lefty reliever if I know that Utley-Howard are 3-4.
Posted by: MG | Wednesday, May 26, 2010 at 10:46 AM
MG - Do you have those numbers handy? From the looks of things, Howard is having his best year against lefties since 2006. I mean, not terribly difficult given how awful he was 07-09, but it's true.
Posted by: Sophist | Wednesday, May 26, 2010 at 10:54 AM
Utley against LHP
06: .301/.394/.463
07: .318/.427/.500
08: .277/.368/.519
09: .288/.417/.545
10: .354/.508/.833
Utley already has 6 HR against LHP.
Posted by: Sophist | Wednesday, May 26, 2010 at 10:57 AM
Obviously, you can't knock down all 10 pins with every post. A number of guys are struggling.
I view Ibanez as an area of concern because of the power drop. If the numbers say "be thankful you don't have Scott Podsednik in LF," that's fine, but I'd still like more from LF, even if he's improving.
Posted by: J. Weitzel | Wednesday, May 26, 2010 at 11:00 AM
Tripworks, I paricipate in a non-baseball forum and have been brought up short on a few occasions when a Yankees fan from Long Island and I have each fretted about our teams, and a Chicagoan tells us she can't take our complaints seriously. She's a Cubs fan. "Come swim in my pond," she says, pointing to the fact that our teams were the WS winners of '08 & '09.
I figure it's the nature of a fan to have a strange, conflicting mix of emotions about one's team - hope and worry, optimism and pessimism. The yin-yang of baseball. Or that's how I've experienced it.
Posted by: GBrettfan | Wednesday, May 26, 2010 at 11:05 AM
Speaking of power outages:
- Sophist brought up the numbers on Ibanez and the real dip in power he has had. We have to see if he has one of his patented hot streaks coming up where he hits for a power. My bet is that he doesn't hit for much power this year and finishes the year at 16-18 HRs.
Not terrible but not good at all either as evidence by the amount of ABs he would likely take to do that 550 ABs or against other LFs. It is also a huge dropoff from last year. His ISO and SLG will likely will reflect that too.
He will be pretty useful offensive player if he can get his AVG up though to say .280ish range, keep up the BBs, and hits his share of 2Bs as he has done this month.
Howard is the guy I am beginning to wonder about. People keep saying that he is a 'After ASB' power hitter or that it will jump come. That isn't true. Howard has typically had trouble put up good power numbers in April but once the warm weather rolled around in May he puts up HRs at a good clip:
Howard
April/May
2006: 5/13
2007: 3/6
2008: 5/10
2009: 4/10
2010: 4/4
2006: 17 ABs/HR, 7.8 ABs/HR
2007: 25.7 ABs/HR, 6.7 ABs/HR
2008: 17 ABs/HR, 10.5 ABs/HR
2009: 20 ABs/HR, 11.2 ABs/HR
2010: 23.8 ABs/HR, 21.8 ABs/HR
Usually the power flows in May with Howard. Hell even when he was injured in '07 and went on the DL, he still came back the final week of the month launching bombs. In '10, the power surge doesn't hasn't been there in May.
Said it before but I would much rather have the Howard who hits .260 with 45 HRs and walks at a high rate than the Howard who hits .300 with 30 HRs and a moderate/low amount of walks.
Will see if Howard turns on the power but don't bye the bunk that keeps getting spouted that Howard doesn't hit HRs early. He does and his career numbers in May clearly show that.
Posted by: MG | Wednesday, May 26, 2010 at 11:06 AM
sophist: good point
If its utley/werth/howard, i take my chances righties vs. polly-werth and save my lefty vs. Howard since Utley rakes on all handedness.
If Howard can't get hot then there is reall yno way to protect him. I'm on the side of Howard improving as the season progresses however.
Posted by: thephaithful | Wednesday, May 26, 2010 at 11:07 AM
(And then a Kansas City person will chime in on how she can't even begin to relate, that she goes to ball games for the experience as opposed to the game itself. And I think, we've got it good, we can enjoy the experience AND have reasonable expectations of a contending season!)
Posted by: GBrettfan | Wednesday, May 26, 2010 at 11:08 AM
Sophist - It was the other night on MLB as a stat and it made really surprised me. Don't care that much about Howard's K rate & never have. This was more of an indication of just how much he has struggled against LH relievers the past 2 years.
Posted by: MG | Wednesday, May 26, 2010 at 11:10 AM
MG thanks for the post. I am concerned about Howard. I've never thought Howard was as great as he was being trumpted to be but thought smarter people than I must see something I don't, especially with the mammoth contract he just signed. Guess we just need to cross our fingers.
Posted by: Heather | Wednesday, May 26, 2010 at 11:10 AM
Utley-Werth-Howard makes a lot of sense...however, I don't think Charlie will do it. He's stubborn about his lineup and the role each hitter has in it (i.e. Rollins in the leadoff spot).
Howard has looked pretty miserable against LH relievers since '06...It's not like this is something new. I don't think it's something that will ever change.
Posted by: Chris in VT | Wednesday, May 26, 2010 at 11:18 AM
The Three Wise Men of 1st Base (Ryno, Albert, XXL Man AKA Prince)are all producing lower than expected power numbers so far this season.
Posted by: Old Phan | Wednesday, May 26, 2010 at 11:20 AM
Heather - No is no reason to get worried about the contract. I get just tired of hearing the 'Howard's power usually comes later in the season.'
Yeah he posts great numbers usually in the 2nd half especially in Sept but he also hits HRs at a really healthy clip in May too.
Still expect he will end up close to 40 HRs but expecting 45-50 is going to be tough if he comes into June with only 8 HRs.
Posted by: MG | Wednesday, May 26, 2010 at 11:25 AM
It was just my scapegoat Ibanez the old man senses tingling when someone brought up bringing up Brown. The power thing is definitely something.
MG, I think 16-18 is way too low. Ibanez will likely end up with a HR/FB around his SEA days. 10-15%. Last year was a fluke, but I don't think his present 6% rate will hold. All his HR have come in his last 25 starts. I think it may be easy to forget what Raul was before last year. He hit 21 and 23 HR in SEA. If he hits 25 (with 30-35 2B) I'd be content.
Howard May
career: .264/.341/.597
08: .238/.344/.590, 10 HR
09: .250/.320/.607, 10 HR
10: .329/.396/.488, 4 HR
Howard's BABIP in May '10 is .434.
Posted by: Sophist | Wednesday, May 26, 2010 at 11:28 AM
It was just my scapegoat Ibanez the old man senses tingling when someone brought up bringing up Brown. The power thing is definitely something.
MG, I think 16-18 is way too low. Ibanez will likely end up with a HR/FB around his SEA days. 10-15%. Last year was a fluke, but I don't think his present 6% rate will hold. All his HR have come in his last 25 starts. I think it may be easy to forget what Raul was before last year. He hit 21 and 23 HR in SEA. If he hits 25 (with 30-35 2B) I'd be content.
Howard May
career: .264/.341/.597
08: .238/.344/.590, 10 HR
09: .250/.320/.607, 10 HR
10: .329/.396/.488, 4 HR
Howard's BABIP in May '10 is .434.
Posted by: Sophist | Wednesday, May 26, 2010 at 11:29 AM
Pretty interesting to compare Howard's results to his '06 start (43 games). Phils started 06 22-20.
06: .299/.351/.591, 3 2B, 0 3B, 14 HR - 13 BB / 42 SO (171 PA)
10: .299/.351/.486, 7 2B, 1 3B, 8 HR - 13 BB / 45 SO (191 PA)
53-177 in 2010 with 37 singles. about 70%.
46-154 in 2006 with 29 singles. about 63%.
Seems like he's a hot streak away.
Posted by: Sophist | Wednesday, May 26, 2010 at 11:35 AM
MG: The Howard stuff has never been mentioned as a "post ASB power hitter." It has always been that he becomes otherworldly in September. That is true to some degree. His hottest month as far as hitting is in September.
I think his problems this year are simply that he is clearly trying to adjust something in his swing and he is still getting a feel for it. Additionally- it feels like the Phillies are seeing a ton of lefties this month- both starting and out of the pen.
Posted by: The Truth Injection | Wednesday, May 26, 2010 at 11:42 AM
Sophst - Possibly especially if he gets hot. You just have to wonder though if Ibanez finally hasn't hit an age where the power just ebbs from his bat a bit.
Ibanez power numbers last year:
Pre-DL visit: 250 ABs, 22 HRs
Post-DL visit: 250 ABs, 15 HRs
This year: 143 ABs, 3 HRs
He really didn't experience that much of a drop-off in power last year even though that is the general perception.
I just had a hunch though that his HR production was largely a fluke this year and bet pretty heavily against it. Best-case scenario, I thought he would go back to more of his career norms and the worst-case is that his age would rob him of his power.
Not getting out to a good start really hurt Ibanez's numbers though & he likely won't put up good/great numbers this year as a result. Usually a guy who hits well in April and tends to fade a bit late in the season.
Without those strong numbers in April and Cholly continuing to trot him out there nearly every day, my bet is that he fades a bit this year in Sept. He might hit 20 or 21 HRs but that isn't really that impressive if he has 550 ABs or so to do it.
Kind of like the old Feliz argument. Yeah he hit ~20 HRs in SF but he needed a ton of ABs to do it (500-550 ABs). Kind of diminishes the accomplishment of hitting 20 HRs if you have 550 ABs to do it.
Posted by: MG | Wednesday, May 26, 2010 at 11:45 AM
So if a guy who averages 627 plate appearances a year and hits an average of 23 home runs- gets 550 plate appearances and hits 20 or 21- he is a disappointment?
Interesting.
Maybe, just maybe, people have silly expectations.
Posted by: The Truth Injection | Wednesday, May 26, 2010 at 11:50 AM
the copy editor seems to be in the same funk as the phils bats, someone needs to check that headline for spelling mistakes
Posted by: theKrisheim | Wednesday, May 26, 2010 at 11:51 AM
TTI - You have heard that a couple of times on the CSN broad casts when they have talked about Howard's power numbers the past week or two.
There are some interesting trends with Howard's power numbers though where his HR/FB has been dropping every year since '06 and his AB/HR has been rising.
Some of that is likely due to teh fact that he simply has seen more LH-handed pitching but you do have to wonder if it is more of a trend too or generally stabilizes this year.
Posted by: MG | Wednesday, May 26, 2010 at 11:53 AM
I went to the Phils/Sox game on Friday night. It was a blast. Cole pitched well and the team played a very inspired game. After that, they seem to have fallen off a cliff. Not to worry, though. I'm sure they'll come storming back soon. The Phils are the class of the NL and the cream will rise (stay) to the top.
Hugh, Polanco tends to choke up on the bat more than most hitters, especially when he has 2 strikes on him. He's a good role model for dad's who watch the games with (and coach) their kids. "Choke up and put the ball in play."
Posted by: A-Train | Wednesday, May 26, 2010 at 11:55 AM
MG: It is true though that he hits for more power after the ASB. IT's not a false statement. It's probably overstated to some degree but it's not wrong.
Posted by: The Truth Injection | Wednesday, May 26, 2010 at 11:55 AM
I think Howard will still end up at around 40 HR and 130 RBI...regardless of how he gets there. He could very well hit 10 HR a month in Jul/Aug/Sep and boom he's there.
Posted by: NEPP | Wednesday, May 26, 2010 at 11:57 AM
MG, like I said, all Ibanez' HR have come since he started hitting. I'd bet his HR/FB in that time is over 10%. His power may ebb, but you figure it's easier to hit HR when 81 games are in CBP than in Safeco.
SEA 06: .227 ISO, 16% HR/FB
SEA 07: .188 ISO, 11% HR/FB
SEA 08: .186 ISO, 11% HR/FB
PHI 09: .280 ISO, 21% HR/FB
PHI 10: .154 ISO, 6% HR/FB
My guess is that, since he hit 0 HR in his first 50 AB this year, his HR/FB is closer to his career norms than the overall line looks. What's more, Ibanez batted ball data shows a drop in FB, but that's not a huge concern because his GB rate has dropped as well. His LD has spiked to 23% (8 higher than last year).
Just to put things in context, Ibanez has hit 48 FB this year. Every HR will mean about a 2% jump in his HR/FB. This is a similar phenomena with Howard. Howard has just as many XBH to start the year as he did in 2006, but with 6 fewer HR his SLG looks puny in comparison.
Posted by: Sophist | Wednesday, May 26, 2010 at 12:00 PM
Howard's career splits:
1st Half: .260/.343/.531 (.874 OPS)
2nd Half: .303/.407/.633 (1.041 OPS)
Why must we have this discussion every year? He'll heat up, mash the ball after the break and we'll all forget about this until next May.
Posted by: NEPP | Wednesday, May 26, 2010 at 12:04 PM
Given the problems on offense, this is a small matter, but isn't it now apparent that the Phillies would be better off with Mathieson in their bullpen than Herndon?
Yes, I know Herndon has to be kept on the roster all season, but at what cost?
Posted by: clout | Wednesday, May 26, 2010 at 12:05 PM
1st Half: 1 HR for every 15.6 PA
2nd Half: 1 HR for every 13.5 PA
Posted by: NEPP | Wednesday, May 26, 2010 at 12:06 PM
clout, do you really see UC using Mathieson in anything resembling a meaningful situation? He'd simply get the same innings that Herndon is getting.
Posted by: NEPP | Wednesday, May 26, 2010 at 12:07 PM
MG: It actually took Feliz 590 ABs to hit 20 HRs the last time he did it. In fact he's hit 20 HRs in fewer than 590 ABs only once. The other two times he did it, it took him 615 and 644 ABs.
Is there anyone besides Jack and flipper who wish Feliz were still the everyday 3B here instead of Polanco?
Posted by: clout | Wednesday, May 26, 2010 at 12:10 PM
Polly doesn't intimidate batters quite as well as Pedro did. He needs to work on his glare so that guys are afraid to hit it at him.
Was it just me or were there an inordinate amount of balls hit at Polly last night?
Posted by: NEPP | Wednesday, May 26, 2010 at 12:11 PM
Interesting on Polly:
OPS+
2007-2009: 103
2010: 103
Sometimes the player's last 3 seasons ARE a good indicator of what he'll give you, eh?
Posted by: NEPP | Wednesday, May 26, 2010 at 12:13 PM
It's funny. For years people complained about Howard's all-or-nothing approach at the plate, that it was either a home run or a K, and thus he was only hitting .265. "If he could just make more contact, he'd be a .300 hitter, and he'd be a monster" is what people said.
Well, folks, you got your wish. He's a .300 contact hitter now. He just sacrificed some of his power (the thing he was the best at in baseball) to get it. I'm not sure that's exactly what everyone was looking for.
Posted by: Jack | Wednesday, May 26, 2010 at 12:13 PM
Herndon and Figueroa are 'tomato can' relievers. Go out there in low leverage situations like last night, work multiple innings, and take a beating if needed.
Posted by: MG | Wednesday, May 26, 2010 at 12:13 PM
NEPP: "Do you really see UC using Mathieson in anything resembling a meaningful situation? He'd simply get the same innings that Herndon is getting."
You're probably right. But I strongly believe Mathieson would post a better line than 23 hits and 4 walks in 14 IP, perhaps prompting his usage in more critical situations.
Posted by: clout | Wednesday, May 26, 2010 at 12:15 PM
****You're probably right. But I strongly believe Mathieson would post a better line than 23 hits and 4 walks in 14 IP, perhaps prompting his usage in more critical situations.****
I would hope so. I'd love to see them call him up too but I don't see them doing it anytime soon. At this point it feels like he's wasting bullets in AAA.
Posted by: NEPP | Wednesday, May 26, 2010 at 12:17 PM
"But I strongly believe Mathieson would post a better line than 23 hits and 4 walks in 14 IP, perhaps prompting his usage in more critical situations."
I tend to agree. Now might be a good time to see if the Angels will do a minor deal for Herndon, so the Phils can send him down to AAA for more work.
Posted by: Bedrosian's Beard | Wednesday, May 26, 2010 at 12:21 PM
The lineup that dennyb posted would be terrific but as others mentioned, Howard is your 4 hitter because that's what Charlie thinks he is.
Posted by: Dukes | Wednesday, May 26, 2010 at 12:22 PM
UZR/150 for 2010:
Polly: 10.1
Feliz: -21.6
Revised Zone Rating (RZR):
Polly: .701 (about middle of the pack for MLB)
Feliz: .597 (worst in Majors by a good margin)
Fielding Percentage:
Polly: .974 (4th in Majors, 1st in NL)
Feliz: .952 (17th in Majors, 11th in NL)
I honestly wouldn't be stunned if Polly snags a Gold Glove for his play at 3B. Given Zimmerman's injuries and Wright's struggles at the plate (yeah, pathetic that that comes into it) its possible...especially given that he's on a top team and is a previous recipient at 2B.
That said, he's not even in the same ballpark as Zimmerman...nobody is.
Overall, its a great signing by Rube so far.
Posted by: NEPP | Wednesday, May 26, 2010 at 12:23 PM
****I tend to agree. Now might be a good time to see if the Angels will do a minor deal for Herndon, so the Phils can send him down to AAA for more work. ****
I think they're waiting till mid-June for a few reasons:
1. Give Lidge a chance to show he's healthy and avoid making an unneccessary move...they will also be able to get a better gauge on Madson's recovery by then.
2. Mathieson's service time: Yeah, this is probably a minor factor but it comes into play with a team this tight on finances.
3. See what teams become sellers and who is available via trade.
Another 3-4 weeks and I think the BP will look a bit different.
Posted by: NEPP | Wednesday, May 26, 2010 at 12:25 PM
Correct me if I'm wrong, but during the playoffs didn't the Rockies have no lefties in the pen last year and the dodgers only one (Sherril) that Ibanez took deep? The yankees utilized their lefties in the pen and that was a big reason they won. I'll bet the next time we face the rockies in the playoffs they will be sure they have a lefty in the pen.
Howard is not a 125 million dollar player.
Posted by: Dukes | Wednesday, May 26, 2010 at 12:26 PM
Howard is your #4 hitter for a couple reasons:
1. He needs Werth's protection far more than Jayson needs his. Werth is hitting great regardless of who's behind him in the lineup and he loves to take the walk regardless.
2. Nobody in baseball (other than Pujols) is a better #4 hitter than Howard when he heats up. He can carry a team like no other and we see it every year but still have this argument.
3. Utley hits LHP better than RHP anyway so the "2 LHB in a row" isn't an issue.
If anything, they should just bat Vic 6th and go from there (when Rollins is healthy again...if that happens). That would help balance the lineup out fine.
Posted by: NEPP | Wednesday, May 26, 2010 at 12:28 PM
We can sit here & parse stats all we want, but the problems w/ the offense are, Chooch excluded, pretty much the same problems that have existed all year. I think Charlie had it right when he singled out the team's overall lack of hustle/enthusiasm/resilience, et. al. as the bigger issue, at least right at the moment. Last night was (to me, at least) the most disheartening game of the season so far because the Phillies basically rolled over & died. Very, very rarely over the past few years has this club degenerated into 9 separate guys stumbling, zombie-like, through their ABs & innings in the field, looking for all the world like they would rather be anyplace else but where they were. That's exactly what the Phils looked like last night, however. Downright depressing.
Posted by: GTown_Dave | Wednesday, May 26, 2010 at 12:29 PM
Dukes: Here's a better one (per Baseball Musings lineup tool):
Vic
Utley
Rollins
Werth
Howard
Ibanez
Polly
Pitcher
Ruiz
Posted by: clout | Wednesday, May 26, 2010 at 12:32 PM
Gtown Dave: So they're losing because they're dispirited.
Interesting.
Perhaps klaus or sophist can tell us whether the Phils lead the league in ennui.
Posted by: clout | Wednesday, May 26, 2010 at 12:34 PM
If LaRussa was our manager, I have no doubt that we'd see that lineup every night.
I'd love to see Utley bat 2nd.
Posted by: NEPP | Wednesday, May 26, 2010 at 12:35 PM
****Very, very rarely over the past few years has this club degenerated into 9 separate guys stumbling, zombie-like, through their ABs & innings in the field, looking for all the world like they would rather be anyplace else but where they were. That's exactly what the Phils looked like last night, however. Downright depressing.****
Its a tribute to just how great a manager UC is and just how great our team is that you can literally count on 1 hand how many times they look like that over the past 3-4 years (basically since the Abreu trade)
Posted by: NEPP | Wednesday, May 26, 2010 at 12:36 PM
Not only is Chooch not hitting or walking since returning, he can't seem to throw either. Those throws down to 2nd last night were digusting. Cecil Fielder could swipe a bag against him.
Ryan Howard's average is up, strikeout rate is down, but where the hell did his power go? 13 xbh all season, pathetic!
Posted by: GM-Carson | Wednesday, May 26, 2010 at 12:45 PM
clout: The Phillies are losing for several reasons. That said losing has apparently led to "ennui" is disconcerting.
Posted by: GTown_Dave | Wednesday, May 26, 2010 at 12:46 PM
Uh oh, Abreu trade reference, and an allusion to "heart" being shown since...
Posted by: Willard Preacher | Wednesday, May 26, 2010 at 12:59 PM
The problem with Ennui is that it leads to unwise practices. Like when the team in Montreal grew so bored someone, forgetting the great history of baseball in French Canada, decided it would be entertaining to try baseball in DC again. As long as Vic's still on his Meds, I think this team will be a-okay.
Posted by: Sophist | Wednesday, May 26, 2010 at 01:21 PM
The Wash. Post had a blurb today about a conversation Steve Phillips had with Mike Francesa on WFAN on Monday. Phillips suggested the Nats should trade Stasburg to the Houston for Oswalt, b/c he doesn't know that Strasburg will ever be as good as Oswalt, and Oswalt helps the Nats immediately. Phillips also suggested the Astros should ask for Strasburg AND another player/prospect. Francesa laughed at him.
I always thought Phillips was an idiot, but he's even more of an idiot than I thought.
Posted by: Bedrosian's Beard | Wednesday, May 26, 2010 at 01:37 PM
BB's post is example A of why Phillips is no longer a GM.
Posted by: Dukes | Wednesday, May 26, 2010 at 01:41 PM
Clout: I think I'd rather jettison Figgy than Herndon. Runs in all but two of his outings, and is he even stretched out for 2+ innings anymore at this point?
Posted by: J. Weitzel | Wednesday, May 26, 2010 at 01:43 PM
JW: Good point. No upside with Figgy. Herndon at least has a chance.
Posted by: clout | Wednesday, May 26, 2010 at 01:44 PM
Beard, that is astonishing.
Posted by: Sophist | Wednesday, May 26, 2010 at 01:45 PM
Forget the Order!
A smack on the back of the head
for the whole line-up
Posted by: Andy | Wednesday, May 26, 2010 at 02:00 PM
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2010/05/25/AR2010052504972.html
Posted by: Bedrosian's Beard | Wednesday, May 26, 2010 at 02:04 PM
Why in the hell is anyone interviewing Steve Phillips about anything, anyway?
Posted by: Willard Preacher | Wednesday, May 26, 2010 at 02:07 PM
We could also just get Herndon permanently by working out a deal with the Angels. Can't imagine it would take very much.
GM Carson: It's very rare the player who can have a high AVG, low K rates and maintain top-notch power. The list is basically Pujols and...Pujols. Otherwise, look at the top power guys, and you'll see lower AVG and more Ks. Howard seems to fall into this group. It seems like Howard has focused more on the AVG and contact, at the expense of his power.
My guess is that as the season rolls on, the power returns, but at the expense of the AVG and Contact.
Posted by: Jack | Wednesday, May 26, 2010 at 02:07 PM
Jack: "The list is basically Pujols and...Pujols."
Obviously, among active players you're right. Historically, of course, it's a different matter.
Posted by: clout | Wednesday, May 26, 2010 at 02:18 PM
The best line in that piece linked by BedBeard is the last:
"Luckily, no one ever said you need to be in your right mind to go on sports-talk radio."
Posted by: GBrettfan | Wednesday, May 26, 2010 at 02:23 PM
The Phillips thing is pathetic. He's just trying to be provocative to get recognition for something other than being a pervert. If you actually listen to a lot of what the talking heads say on EvilSPN and talk radio, most of it is just designed to get a reaction. Skip Bayless anyone? I once heard him say, Tom Brady and Peyton Manning had shown him nothing in their careers. I'm not making that up. I COULD'NT make that up. I really find myself tuning everything out anymore. Which is sad. Sometimes I think I should just put on an old Foghat CD.
Posted by: donc | Wednesday, May 26, 2010 at 02:27 PM
Jack: The Phillies used to have a guy like that. It's a shame he's been dead for over 50 years now.
Posted by: GTown_Dave | Wednesday, May 26, 2010 at 02:32 PM
Hey Gtown, cool picture of Terry Harmon.
Posted by: donc | Wednesday, May 26, 2010 at 02:35 PM
donc: Terry Harmon Reference = Awesome. Some considered him dead while he was still playing ...
Posted by: GTown_Dave | Wednesday, May 26, 2010 at 02:42 PM
He was a god to me. Kind of the poor man's Jay Loviglio.
Posted by: donc | Wednesday, May 26, 2010 at 02:45 PM
Matt Gelb (via Twitter): "Roy Halladay will face Josh Johnson on Saturday in Florida."
So Roy is gonna take 3 straight losses?
Posted by: GTown_Dave | Wednesday, May 26, 2010 at 02:46 PM
I mentioned this in a previous post, but I'd like to see Chooch back in the 8-hole. He is well-suited to that spot, and has done phenomenally well there. I believe his slide coincides with the added pressure of moving him up a spot. Castro is fine in the 7-hole. And even if he flames out there, Chooch seems to do well with the pitcher up behind him.
Posted by: Voice of Reason | Wednesday, May 26, 2010 at 02:53 PM
"And even if he flames out there," the "he" being Castro.
Posted by: Voice of Reason | Wednesday, May 26, 2010 at 02:54 PM
Zolecki (via Twitter): "Catcher Paul Hoover cleared waivers, was outrighted to Triple-A Lehigh Valley and accepted the assignment."
Posted by: GTown_Dave | Wednesday, May 26, 2010 at 02:54 PM
Don't worry, GTown. Johnson is on my fantasy team, so he'll be good for 2.2 IP, 10 ER, 12 H and 5 BB. And I'm fine with losing fantasy this week because of it.
Posted by: R.Billingsly | Wednesday, May 26, 2010 at 02:55 PM
R.Billingsly: I'm fine w/ your losing, too. :-) Honestly, I feel more confident w/ the Phils going up against Johnson than I would if the Marlins were gonna bring someone up from AAA for the game.
Posted by: GTown_Dave | Wednesday, May 26, 2010 at 02:58 PM
"It's very rare the player who can have a high AVG, low K rates and maintain top-notch power. The list is basically Pujols and...Pujols."
Like clout said, historically, that's not necessarily true. Guys like Mantle, Mays and Killebrew rang up some hefty totals over their careers but, then you had guys like DiMaggio and Williams. Pujols is a throwback to that era in regards to the amount of contact he makes.
Yesterday's local paper had an article basically commemorating the 75th anniversary of Babe Ruth's last 3 home runs - Forbes Field, 5/25/35. It mentioned that his last at bat was a strikeout against the Phillies 5 days later. His 1330th K of his career. A look at the all time list shows he was then the career leader in that category. He's now 93d on the list. Ryan Howard will top 1000 this year and will likely pass hte Babe in year 1 of his extension.
Posted by: Hugh Mulcahy | Wednesday, May 26, 2010 at 03:02 PM
Honestly, I feel more confident w/ the Phils going up against Johnson than I would if the Marlins were gonna bring someone up from AAA for the game.
Me too!
Posted by: R.Billingsly | Wednesday, May 26, 2010 at 03:07 PM
Just wanted to say thanks for one of the best threads of the year.
Great job to Andy too. Love it.
Posted by: phillyBlunt | Wednesday, May 26, 2010 at 03:17 PM
donc: I do not envy you such a childhood. At least I was privy to the infield magic of Herr to Thon to Jordan as a young man. "These are the saddest of possible words", indeed ...
Posted by: GTown_Dave | Wednesday, May 26, 2010 at 03:19 PM
Yeah, I was just talking about current players. Obviously there's guys like DiMaggio and Williams and Stan Musial. But that only re-inforces my point. Does Ryan Howard remind you of any of those guys? Didn't think so.
G-Town Dave: How big a contract do you think Amaro would give Klein?
Posted by: Jack | Wednesday, May 26, 2010 at 03:24 PM
I loved Dickie Thon. Sounds like soft core porn. I giggle every time I hear his name.
Posted by: donc | Wednesday, May 26, 2010 at 03:25 PM
Gtown: Try Wine to Rojas to White on for size. God I'm a fossil.
Posted by: donc | Wednesday, May 26, 2010 at 03:28 PM
Jack: I'm not sure about the money, but Chuck would definitely get more years if he were close to the end of his career.
Posted by: GTown_Dave | Wednesday, May 26, 2010 at 03:29 PM
donc: I remember being very excited about the Phils getting Thon. He looked like a HoFer ... at least in comparison to Steve Jeltz.
Posted by: GTown_Dave | Wednesday, May 26, 2010 at 03:38 PM
Matt Gelb (via Twitter): "It's a shakeup: Francisco, Valdez and Schneider are starting for Ibañez, Castro and Ruiz."
Oh dear. I hope he's joking. :-S
Posted by: GTown_Dave | Wednesday, May 26, 2010 at 03:40 PM