Sleuthing the mathematical mysteries behind 3-4-5

Using A-Levels maths to rationalize the Phillies' slumbering bats.

I'll be the first to admit that many of these numbers I'm about to discuss irk the hell out of me. The poindexters who read Beerleaguer pay way more attention to this method than I do, but once in a while, I'm asked to champion the geekazoid cause in an uncomfortably public way. So tomorrow I'll speak on behalf of dorks everywhere during a call-in to the 610 WIP morning show. That's happening around 7:30 a.m.

I think Angelo wants an answer to the riddle that has confounded all of us: why the Phillies have suddenly stopped hitting, specifically, the 3-4-5 guys. So it's time to crack open Fangraphs.com to extrapolate and misappropriate numbers I don't fully understand.

Right off the bat, I see a .259 BABIP (batting average on balls in play) for Chase Utley. That's low, and I'm schooled to understand that it means he's having some bad luck, something you'd know anyway if you've been watching the games. Last week, he must have hit a ball hard right at someone once a night. But he's grounding out a lot, too: 41 percent compared to 34 percent in 2009. That's a pretty steep jump. Besides the obvious power dip, his fielding and speed haven't been quite as strong, and if I'm reading it correctly, he hasn't been hitting fastballs like he normally would; again, something an observer would have already noticed. Conclusion: he's hurt, tired or ill. He missed two days in May with the flu, which is decidedly un-Utley-like. There might be something to that. In addition, he stinks away from home (.660 road OPS compared to 1.072 at home) and against right-handed pitching (.723 OPS vs. 1.114 against lefties).

A reader alerted Beerleaguer to the fact that Ryan Howard only needs 2,227 more plate appearances to be worth the $19 million he's being paid this season. I have no idea how that was determined, so a second reader explained that he's looking at Howard's Fangraphs.com "value" and then dividing by his current plate appearances, then dividing $19 million by that number. Good enough. All it means to me is that statheads who lobbed grenades at the Phillies for breaking the bank on him have been proven correct so far. And that was back when Howard's ISO was .292, not .176 like it is now. Thank goodness for 2008, and free swingers like Mark Reynolds and David Wright. Howard may not lead the league in strikeouts, but he still swings at crap.

Jayson Werth is tough because his numbers still reflect his hot start when he completed that run of consecutive games reaching base. Since then, he's hitting .171/.256/.314 with two homers since May 18 and he's been benched repeatedly to clear his head. Stuck at 10 homers like everyone else, he'd still finish with career highs in OPS (.905) and SLG (.541) if the season ended today. Even Werth would admit that he's a streaky hitter. Defensively, I stand by my unpopular claim that he's the most overrated fielder on the team (-3.0 UZR in 2010).

Comments

[Bedrosian's Beard]

"Maybe only in the minds of Phillie fans. He's a poor leadoff hitter, and an average infielder."

LOL.

[Sophist]

TTI - that's right. Howard has turned himself into Victorino for the team's first 60 games.

Rollins OPS+ since 2004 is 102 (with 115 HR, 67 3B, and 228 SB). That's in nearly 1000 games. How many starting SS have numbers like that? There aren't 10 SS with over 800 games played since 2004 with an OPS+ over 100. There are 7. Rollins is 2d in HR (to Tejada) and 2d in SB (to Reyes) among them. There simply aren't many players with Rollins' skillset. In any case, it's hard to imagine you could be watching what the Phils have been rolling out at SS in his absence and not think this team misses at least his bat (if not his attitude).

[Jack]

Rollins is very hard to replace because, as we've seen with Castro and Valdez, the level of replacement player is so low at shortstop.

That said, comparing losing Rollins to the Cardinals losing Pujols is laughable.

[Jack]

I would expect Howard's power to pick up soon, and his average to drop smoewhat. Hopefully, however, that drop in average will be supplemented by an increase in walks drawn.

Right now, he's at .286/.342/.461. I'd like to see that get more in the .275/.360/.540 range. Even those numbers are low for what, frankly, a guy like Howard should be producing, but, c'est la vie.

[MG]

Sophist - I am not a 'doom and gloomer' but after a while you have to disregard what the longer-term trends say & take a look at some more of the intermediate/near-term trends/actual observation. One of the reasons that modeling breaks down so often in so many social sciences it that the outcomes are often assumed to be consitent & really even in most cases.

I do want to see how the offense hits over next few weeks to really have a better look but this offense looks like. I am certain though they won't 200+ HRs this season for the first time in a few year (since '05 I think) and that this offense is going to have a notable failoff in runs too.

[timr]

did the Rays "run out of steam a little bit" or did the Phils just beat them?

Can't it be both? I don't think it takes anything away from the Phils to say the Rays looked a little spent coming into that series.

And yes, Howard has heated up a little bit over this stretch, so maybe its not fair to include him with Uts and Werth.

But my main point, in any case, is that its very hard to get to the World Series three years in a row, and sometimes even very talented clubs find that things just go to sh*t. Maybe Happ, Madson, and Jimmy will return, remain healthy, and play well despite their lengthy layoffs; and maybe Utley is just slumping rather than fighting an injury that will nag him all season, and maybe Ibanez will finally figure it out/ feel better and give them some decent production in the second half, and then I guess this team is going to be just fine. But it also may be the case that this collection of calamities is just too much to bounce back from. I mean, these things happen--it always takes a little luck and right now they have none.

[Old Phan]

3.5 games back with 100 to go? Yea, they're done.

[EastFallowfield]

Maybe the Phils beat the Rays because both teams were pretty good and a short series can be won be either team?

[Sophist]

MG, I don't doubt a fallout in RS, but only three weeks ago this team scored 224 runs in 41 games. I'd be a bit more persuaded if they were a .730 OPS team with well less than 5 runs a game for most of this year. They'll have lower RS because of a coincidence of slumps and the loss of Rollins for 70+ games, but I don't see this team as that much different offensively as the one from last year.

I'm going to guess that Ibanez and Howard make up a big portion of that HR difference.

[Sophist]

Here's something that seems unsustainable to me as well. RISP this year:

Werth: .186/.338/.390 (77 PA)
Utley: .220/.414/.300 (70 PA)
Howard: .247/.333/.364 (87 PA)

Not sure there's much explanation for that. You can see part of the reason Vic is almost the team leader in RBI.

[MPNPhilly]

I wonder what the Orioles would want for Ty Wigginton? He can play 1B, 2B, 3B and would add a nice RH bat to shift around the diamond or come off the bench.

[awh]

"That said, comparing losing Rollins to the Cardinals losing Pujols is laughable."

Jack, ummmmm, you do understand exaggeration to make a point, no?

[Phil Lee]

Victorino: 2/4, 2 singles, SB, 2 runs
Polanco: 1/3, double, 2 runs
Utley: 2/3, 3 RBI, 2 runs, HR, BB
Howard: 1/4, single, 1 run scored
Werth: 1/4, double, RBI, run
Ibanez: 2/4, 2 singles, RBI
Valdez: 1/4, single
Ruiz: 0/4
DH: 1/3, double, RBI
Halladay, 9 k's, 0 ER, CG, SO

Phils win 8-0

Just a hunch...

[awh]

From the previous page:

I sure hope Ryan Howard learns to hit LHP a little better.
Still, I just hope his career winds up as good as these guys:

Player A:

vs. RHP: .277 .387 .539 .926
vs. LHP: .248 .336 .440 .776

Player B:

vs. RHP: .294 .376 .560 .936
vs. LHP: .250 .317 .446 .763

Player C:

vs. RHP: .299 .398 .492 .891
vs. LHP: .244 .321 .371 .692

Any guesses? Answers coming soon.

ANSWERS:

Player A: Willie McCovey
Player B: Willie Stargell
Player C: Carl Yastrzemski

[Old Phan]

http://www.philly.com/philly/sports/phillies/20100615_Stephen_A__Smith__Something_wrong_with_those_Phillies.html#axzz0qw8nThOe

Just read that and lost 10 IQ points.

[awh]

Sophist, interesting stats on Werth's RISP.

Here are his total stats since May 19th:

.171 .256 .314 (78 PA)

As you can see, it hasn't much mattered whether there are RISP or not.

[awh]

Old Phan, I lost 20. Smith is usually OK, but boy-oh-boy, that articlw displays an ignorance of the game of baseball that should get him banned for life from ever writing about it again.

[Sophist]

awh - Those are his season RISP stats which are as much a product of sample size problems as his last 70+ PA have been. Outside BL reality is the world in which Werth's OPS+ is over 130 this season.

The point is that Werth is hitting .280/.364/.541 on the season but just .186/.338/.390 with RISP. There is simply no reason for that. Given enough PA, players should hit slightly better w RISP. The Phils have been a victim of bad luck to the extent that Werth's missed some opportunities to drive runners home. Expect his RISP numbers to climb and end up slightly higher than his overall line.

[Jack]

awh: True, but keep in mind that those OPS numbers are from a significantly lower offensive era.

B-Ref has a stat (tOPS+) which adjusts split OPS compared to a player's overall OPS. Howard's tOPS+ against righties is 122 -- he does 22 percent better against righties than his overall OPS (against both righties and lefties). His tOPS+ is 58 against lefties -- he does 42 percent worse against lefties.

McCovey: 108, 75
Stargell: 110, 72
Yaz: 112, 65
Howard: 122, 58

He's most similar to Yaz, but even still, his platoon split is wider than any of these guys, and by a significant margin over Stargell and McCovey.

Part of this, of course, is the increase in relief specialization--my guess is Howard faces more lefty relievers late in the game than those guys ever did.

[awh]

Jack, I don't disagree with anything you posted, but I think you missed my point.

I was merely trying to show that there have been some pretty tremendous offensive players in MLB - particularly lefty hitters - who have had significant L/R splits.

The three I listed just happened to be in the HOF.

They all hit for average against LHP significantly better than Howard's .225 .306 .439, though his raw power boosts his OPS.

However, he has a much more dramatic swing between the two, hence my opening comment:

"I sure hope Ryan Howard learns to hit LHP a little better."

[awh]

Sophist, point taken.

I was just trying to show that RISP or not, Werth hasn't hit much the last 3 weeks.

[NEPP]

****I was merely trying to show that there have been some pretty tremendous offensive players in MLB - particularly lefty hitters - who have had significant L/R splits.****

One could argue that those guys survived because they played in a pre-LaRussa era where the starting pitcher usually went 8-9 innings and things like a LOOGY didn't exist.

One could argue that is.

[NEPP]

Stargell:

6299 PA vs. RHP (72.4%)
2436 PA vs. LHP (27.6%)

Howard:

2261 PA vs. RHP (66.3%)
1150 PA vs. LHP (33.7%)

Bullpen specialization is a wonderful thing, eh?

[NEPP]

McCovey

7341 PA vs. RHP (75.8%)
2346 PA vs. LHP (24.2%)

Yaz

10575 PA vs. RHP (75.6%)
3416 PA vs. LHP (24.4%)

Yeah...could be an issue.

[Jack]

awh: Yeah, I know what you're saying. Those guys (particularly McCovey and Stargell) are clearly the best comps for a guy like Howard.

That said, while I hope it happens as well, I'm not holding my breath for Howard to suddenly improve against lefties. He's been getting worse, not better, over his career, and guys don't usually learn new skills on the other side of 30. Howard's OPS against lefties:

2006: .923
2007: .826
2008: .746
2009: .653
2010: .639

Anyone see a trend?

[NEPP]

Ooh, ooh, ooh...I do, I do.

Its ridiculous that he's gotten that bad against LHP...what the hell happened to him?

[GBrettfan]

What happened to him is, in part, that pitchers learned he hates breaking balls.

[Old Phan]

Is it true that guys don't learn new skills after 30? I have a hard time believing that, if for no other reason that in baseball one has to constantly make adjustments, and I would imagine that some players (esp. pitchers) over 30 are able to do that.

[Old Phan]

re: Howard. Maybe he just doesnt possess the right "tools" to hit lefties, but that seems like the perfect place for a hitting coach to guide him in the right direction, to see what he's doing wrong and correct it.

[GBrettfan]

Cool story of a homeless Philly guy living out of his car in Nashville, hearing Harry Kalas call the final out of the '08 WS, and being inspired to hang in there.
http://www.philly.com/philly/sports/phillies/96356989.html#axzz0qwVZhbSY

[awh]

Michael Jack has said he made significant adjustments after 30.

That led to 2 MVP seasons.

Let's hope Howard has the athletic ability to do the same.

(People forget just how good a natural athlete Schmidt was.)

[awh]

NEPP, good work. You may be on to something.

[Sophist]

Howard really only had one year, 2006, where he hit lefties for average.

BA / BABIP / K% / BB% -- XBH% (HR%)

06: .279 / .368 / 39% / 9.7% -- 11% (8%)
07: .225 / .282 / 41% / 13% -- 11% (8%)
08: .224 / .300 / 41% / 8.7% -- 10% (6%)
09: .207 / .299 / 37% / 10% -- 9% (3%)

10: .221 / .268 / 30% / 4.4% -- 7% (5%)

The notable trends to me seem to be the BABIP drop and a slight HR% drop (but not an XBH% drop) against LHP.

[Sophist]

I put these year aside since it's only 60 games, but it's pretty crazy how much Howard's approach has changed in the early going.

[clout]

curt makes two mistakes in blasting Rollins. First, using a defensive metric to somehow show that he's a bad fielder. The GI/GO nature of defensive metrics like UZR has been discussed numerous times here so I won't belabor it, but it is worth noting that even the most extreme supporters of UZR say that it is really only accurate in chunks of 3 or more years. There is too much noise (factors unrelated to fielding skill) in the one year samples for it to have much meaning.

[Sophist]

Note also that Howard's K% against LHP has been dropping, not raising. I think if he learned to hit a GB to the right side, we may see a higher average again. Whether that's possible or whether he could both do that and still have an XBH in 10% of his AB against LHP is another question.

[MG]

The biggest knock on Howard (and has been for 3 years now) is that if you have a lefty reliever in the bullpen late you can almost completely neutralize Howard. Hell, it is the reason why his IBB hae dropped like a rock. If it is someone like Feliciano with a decent fastball/slider combo, you don't even need to watch because Howard will K or hit a weak ground ball to the right side.

[NEPP]

Howard in 7th-9th innings:

2007: .856 OPS (.976 overall)
2008: .580 OPS (.881 overall)
2009: .869 OPS (.931 overall)
2010: .611 OPS (.803 overall)

[aksmith]

And that's exactly why Ruben felt he HAD to give Ryan 25 million per season for eternity. . . . Oh wait.

[MG]

TTI - "Phillies go 7-5 at worst over the next 12 games.

Book it."

Could I wager against this?

[awh]

NEPP,
some #s are incomplete because b-r.com doesn't have them all:

Gehrig

6865 PA vs. RH starter (71.05%)
2798 PA vs. LH starter (28.95%)

Ted Williams

6865 PA vs. RHP (76.12%)
780 PA vs. LHP (23.88%)

3267 PA vs. RH Starter (81.13%)
760 PA vs. LH Starter (18.87%)

Better yet.....League Splits:

1952 NL LHB

10758 PA vs. RHP (79.21%)
2823 PA vs. LHP (20.79%)

1955 NL LHB:

10550 PA vs. RHP (79.89%)
2655 PA vs. LHP (20.11%)

1958 NL LHB:

14005 PA vs. RHP (81.08%)
3261 PA vs. LHP (18.92%)
________________________________________________________

2000 NL LHB:

33495 PA vs. RHP (84.88%)
5968 PA vs. LHP (15.12%)

2005 NL LHB:

34911 PA vs. RHP (84.40%)
6454 PA vs. LHP (15.60%)

2009 NL LHB:

36402 PA vs. RHP (83.26%)
7322 PA vs. LHP (16.74%)

I'll let you make sense of it.

[NEPP]

Howard should take comfort in the fact that he has guaranteed several otherwise borderling LH relievers steady employment through 2016 on any of the NL East rosters.

[awh]

clout, I didn't respond to curt because his JRoll post was so innane.

But, as you're inferring, the site he linked to was stats for only one year.

It's been discussed here enough that he should have known better.
___________________________________________________________________

MG, one of the reasons Atlanta acquired Mike Gonzalez was because of Howard and Utley.

Pedro Feliciano will have a job with the Mets as long as those two are on the Phils - no matter how bad he is against other teams.

IMHO, George Sherril was acquired by the Dodgers last season in anticipation of facing Utley, Howard and Ibanez in the playoffs. Of course, it didn't work out so well when he hung that first pitch breaking ball to Raul.

[awh]

"Howard should take comfort in the fact that he has guaranteed several otherwise borderling LH relievers steady employment through 2016 on any of the NL East rosters."

NEPP, same point...more succinctly said by you.

[EastFallowfield]

Yo, newer thread

[Not a Phan of the Phillies]

WRONG!!!! NUMBERS ALL WRONG!!!!!
SHOULD READ "CAN"T STEAL SIGNS, CAN"T HIT".

It's not nuclear physics or brain surgery.
You don't need some complex mathematical equation to figure this out the answer is:
"CAN"T STEAL SIGNS, CAN"T HIT".