Choose wisely: Beerleaguer trade bonanza thread

1:30 p.m. The Astros claimed Nelson Figueroa off waivers and plan to have him join the team Friday. The 36-year-old right-hander went 2-1 with a 3.46 ERA in 13 appearances, including a spot start. He was designated for assignment for the second time by the Phillies on July 15 to make room for Chad Durbin. Figueroa cleared waivers seven weeks ago, but this time, Ed Wade bit. The Houston Chronicle reports that one more move corresponding to the Astros' 25-man roster will be announced postgame. Beerleaguer: Figueroa is the type of pitcher teams reach for when they're unsure what the short-term future holds, so it's interesting in light of today's speculation.

10:30 a.m. CSNPhilly's Jim Salisbury reiterates on radio that the Phillies are scouting Dan Haren tonight, but they are really working on getting Roy Oswalt, reflecting Salisbury's earlier report on the Phillies' particular interest in the Astros' right-hander.

10:05 a.m. The Houston Chronicle reports that the Phillies and Astros are engaged in advanced talks regarding right-hander Roy Oswalt. Last night, ESPN and multiple other outlets reported that the Phils are talking about a three-way deal involving Jayson Werth going to the Rays with prospects going from Tampa to Houston.

(Getty Images)

Comments

[NEPP]

****The Indians took a sore armed pitcher and a used fungo bat for Cliff Lee, I wonder what they'd want for Fausto Carmona.****

Jason Donald has a .754 OPS on the season and is hitting .356 since June 24th.

The other 3 aren't doing quite as well. Apparently Jason Knapp went to the Springfield Mystery Spot as he's been MIA since last fall.

[Jbird]

NEPP: I still pretty sure we came out ahead, until we shot ourselves in the foot.

[J.R. King]

RAJ is allergic to expiring contracts.

[Brian G]

No regrets on that trade whatsoever but I always liked Jason Donald. Exactly the type of guy who is nice to have around for a season like this, when Utley/Rollins both miss time.

And I'm annoyed at Rube for the Lee trade, but the only thing I'm truly mad at him about is giving Danys Baez a 2 yr contract.

[clout]

Singleton, Cosart and Gose are talked about on Beerleaguer with the same sense of awe and hushed tones that were once reserved for Jason Donald, Lou Marson, Antonio Bastardo and Greg Golson.

[TK]

BrianG: Don't forget the guaranteed MLB deal to one Juan Castro.

[NEPP]

I dont think anyone really cares if Gose is traded...he's pretty much seen as expendable.

I think the comments on Singleton and Cosart are pretty fair considering how both are looked at scouting groups (Something none of the guys you listed could ever say)

[clout]

sifl: "But trading for Oswalt -- as much as I'd love to improve the rotation -- does nothing to increase the value of the Phillies' payroll."

There's nothing I care about more than having a payroll with the best value. I could care less about having the best players or winning the most games.

And that's why I love Beerleaguer.

[bay_area_phan]

If the Werth-Oswalt deal happens, Amaro will basically have turned this from a hitting-oriented team with middling starting pitching into a pitching-oriented team with a middling to somewhat above average offense (depending how players perform). Given a finite budget which requires some difficult choices, I think that Amaro has chosen correctly.

The devil, of course, is in the details. Good pitchers don't always pitch good games and, as we've seen with both Halladay & Hamels this year, even a well-pitched game by your starter is no guarantee of a win if your offense can't score runs & your bullpen can't hold leads. And no matter how good your first 3 starters, your other 2 guys have to start 40% of the time; you can't have a guy in your starting rotation who's yielding 6 runs per 9 innings.

You need to have decent complementary pieces. When it comes to this part of the equation, Amaro & the FO have not done so well. And, with all these multi-year contracts to second-tier players, they also haven't done so well at leaving us the financial flexibility to replace some of the non-performing complementary players.

The upcoming off-season, will really show us something about this FO's ability to judge talent. We have a whole lot of underperforming players on our roster this year. Just because a guy underperforms doesn't mean you get rid of him. But, one of Amaro's primary off-season tasks will be to figure out which of the under-performers just had bad years, & which are likely to under-perform again.

[Mark]

Cliff Lee said the phillies made a preliminary offer to his agent and took it off the table immmediately when they found out they could get Halladay. He said he was out hunting and thought his agent would be negotiating with the phils and was shocked to see he was traded and of course his agent wasnt given a chance to respond because they didnt want him. He made no salary or contract demands. It never got to that point-- it was only a couple of weeks after the World Series. To list dollar amounts and years demanded by Lee is misinformation. Lee looked hurt and surprised by the trade. To paint him as the greedy bad guy who is lying about how much he wanted and caused his own trade is disingenous.

[DPatrone]

J-Bird~ You are correct. But I think the picks are sandwich picks between the 1st and second rounds. It's quite possible the Phils thought in Lee's case (or think in Werth's case) that the draft pick aren't the best option as they could be 2-4 years away from helping at the big-league level. Additional players in your system do help you in making trades though. So I do understand your point, and you make a good one.

[NEPP]

****There's nothing I care about more than having a payroll with the best value. I could care less about having the best players or winning the most games.****

Exactly. Who cares if Howard hits 50 HRs/140 RBIs...it doesnt make a bit of difference if he cant do it in a cost effective manner. Luckily, they give the WS trophy to the team with the best wOBA and xFIP instead of using something as silly as Wins and Losses.

[Wendy]

At this point I'd be content with a trade or shakeup in the broadcast booth!

[Jbird]

Clout: As usual, I think your overselling a somewhat valid point. The counter argument is that the "experts" are infatuated with the current crop as well. It was hard to find any professionals who really liked Marson, Donald, or Bastardo as more than role players.

[Bay Slugga]

It is written that there will one day be someone who brings balance to the force...ummmm differences between traditional baseball statistics and sabermetrics.

You don't have to pick a side, in this case you can have your cake and eat it too!

[CJ]

Eitheror: WAR criticism?

It too heavily weighs flawed defensive metrics which have value over a few seasons, but is EXTREMELY limited over portions of a single season.

[awh]

awh: Oswalt? No. Haren? Yes.

[Jbird]

NEPP: what would be really great would be if we could just use a super computer to simulate the season 10,000 times and crown a champion without ever playing a real game.

[eitheror]

NEPP: money is a limited resource, this is not a SABR revelation its simple business. When you pay one player money, you have less money for the rest. Optimizing resources is legitimately the main goal of a front office. Their goal is to extract the most value from every dollar they spend. Still waiting for a substantial criticism of WAR and a suggestion for what should be used instead.

[Jack]

"Luckily, they give the WS trophy to the team with the best wOBA and xFIP instead of using something as silly as Wins and Losses."

This is my favorite argument of all-time. I just love it. It's a total lock-down, foolproof argument that simply amazes and astounds everyone who comes into contact with it. It's pure genius.

Seriously though, the stat arguments on here are redundant and pointless. I'm staying out, and I will come back once people are talking about something interesting. The idiotic debate about the value of WAR vs. the value of wins never results in anything new or intelligent being introduced--so what's the point?

Let's go back to talking trade rumors, please.

[Bay Slugga]

eitheror: I gave my criticism of WAR and you choose to ignore it?

Also, I'm not saying WAR shouldn't be used. I just think it is silly to say Jayson Werth is better than Ryan Howard because of a .2 difference in WAR.

[Tim]

DPatrone, obvious question--if the sandwhich picks were unattractive because they are 2-4 years away, what time slot can we expect Gillies Aumont and Ramirez to arrive? Were they supposed to be faster?
The phillies and other major league teams are fanning out now signing guys who weren't drafted this year. The Phils signed undrafted Bill Rice from Wash Twp this week and assigned him to Clearwater. It's another quick way to restock the system.

[eitheror]

Jack: I agree and withdraw my plea for someone to actually criticize WAR. On a seperate note: I <3 Ryan Howard's contract extension, he's a great fella and has teh rbis.

[aksmith]

Clout - Somebody really thought Golson could play? I've never seen or heard from such a person. And none of Donald, Marson or Bastardo was ever seen as the kind of high upside player that Cosart, Colvin and Singleton are. One scout told one reporter a whopper about Bastardo. So what?

In fact, you'll see Cosart, Colvin and Singleton in the upper tiers of scouting journals for the next few seasons. That will be more confirmation that they are legit prospects rather than relying on the feelings of BLers.

And Donald isn't looking too bad right now for a guy who projected to be a utility infielder, which is what he is.

[Jack]

aksmith: Don't bother engaging with Clout about prospects. While he's right that, in general, fans tend to overrate the prospects in their team's system, he simply distorts everyone's statement to such a degree that he's no longer speaking in any sort of reality.

If you've ever said a positive word about any of our prospects, then it is a matter of record that you loved Greg Golson, thought Bastardo would be the next Johan Santana, and believe that Lou Marson is better than Johnny Bench. These are just facts to Clout, presuming you've ever said a single good thing about any Phillie prospect.

[eitheror]

Bay Slugga: WAR primers say that you can basically put players in WAR value ranges. .2war is a margin of error . So depending on how you project them forward you could make an argument for Howard or Werth being more valuable. The author at fangraphs(and myself as well) would say that given the skill set, position, and body type that Werth would be a more valuable player. But yes a .2 difference is a judgment call. So you instincts are correct. Sorry to ignore you! As for Ryan Howard as a catcher, it would push his value through the roof because of the R in WAR. Replacement level catchers are guys like Dane Sardinha and Paul Hoover(.700ish OPS), whereas replacement level 1b are guys like Andy Tracy(who puts up .875-.900ops in AAA).

One caveat: Hypothetical Catcher Ryan Howard would not get nearly as many ABs and would be a higher injury risk due to being a catcher. So that would drive his value down a bit. Hyporthetical Catcher Ryan Howard would only play 120-130 games a year, so you can bring down the WAR projection a little.

[Conshy Matt]

the inclusion of Pence would make this much more interesting. anyone know of his contract situation?

i can't imagine that houston is expecting the world back for Oswalt. just clearing his salary for next year is probably their #1 priority. getting prospects back would be gravy.

re: the fangraphs article - i love advanced stats but any stat that says that werth has been more valuable than howard this year is clearly flawed.

[CJ]

eitheror: No answer to my criticism of WAR?

[Jbird]

I think it speaks volumes that we won the Golson-Mayberry swap hands down.

[Jack]

At this point, Howard has obviously been more valuable than Werth.

However, if you go back just a few weeks, that wouldn't have been nearly so obvious. People are falling into the trap of the recency bias, as Howard has gotten hot and Werth has struggled.

For the month of April and some of May, though, Werth was quite clearly more valuable than Howard. Those games count too.

[Sophist]

How did this become a discussion about WAR? The main error with the fangraphs article wasn't the deserved or not aside (criticism) about Howard but that it overlooked Werth's expiring contract and any other possible context. Like I said before, Werth is a 0 WAR player for the Phils in 2011 and 2012, so the only question is whether it's better for the Phils to keep him and get 2 sandwich picks or trade him for what sounds like Oswalt (who'd likely be a positive WAR player for the next 2.5 years).

How did the Pence rumor even start? Highly doubt the Astros are trading Pence. In any case, he just had his first year of arb. eligibility.

[eitheror]

CJ: sorry there's been a flood of comments. W/R/T defensive metrics, yeah they are volatile so the best thing to do is too look at big samples and adjust as you see fit. I am also a bit leary of UZR(not to the degree of Colin Wyers) but, for the most part the methodology is sound and 90-95% of the results seem to jive with scouting/eyeball test. Is there anyone on the Phillies whose UZR bothers you?

Also, UZR doesn't effect pitcher WAR. So its just non-catcher position players.

[jason.tp]

If/When Nelson Figueroa pitches for Houston, he will be the 7th phormer phillie to suit up for Ed Wade this year. The other six are:

Michael Bourn
Brett Myers
Pedro Feliz
Jason Michaels
Gustavo Chacin(AAA)
Gary Majewski(AAA)

[bake]

The Phillies are 7 games back. Same as 2007 with 17 to play.

[bay_area_phan]

jbird: Absolutely.

Mayberry is better than Golson; Cliff Lee is better than Gillies, Ramirez & Aumont. The two trades cancel each other out.

[NEPP]

On WAR, how does Blanton have a higher WAR than Kendrick so far this year?

I mean, Blanton has been terrible whereas KK has been barable at least.

WAR:

Big Joe: 0.5
KK: 0.3

ERA+

Big Joe: 68
KK: 87

Things like that make me question WAR. See also, Ben Zobrist's 2009 campaign.

[mwbbfan]

Don't blame Herndon for Figgy being gone---Blame Baez ----Herndon has a chance to be good---Baez not--total disgrace!!!!

[Jack]

NEPP: When a guy hits .297/.405/.543 while playing great defense at multiple positions, do you not not think that's very valuable?

Now, I agree that Zobrist's season was kind of fluky and I doubt he'll produce that much value again. But there's no question he was incredibly valuable as a player last year, and his WAR simply reflects that.

Bah. I said I wasn't going to get into stupid stat discussions. Seriously, can we move on please? The conversation about WAR brings less than nothing to the table, from either side really.

[jason.tp]

When not eating innings, Heavy B snacks on WAR.

[c'mon]

And yet your conclusion is that WAR is flawed and ERA+(a stat that doesn't adjust for defense) is not. You have to be able to abandon what you are sure you know.

[DPatrone]

Tim~

I don't expect any of the players we got for Lee to arrive in the Majors at all. I never said we got any kind of value for Lee, nor did I ever said I liked the trade.
I said at the time that it was about the 9 million salary.

"Cliff Lee said the phillies made a preliminary offer to his agent and took it off the table immmediately when they found out they could get Halladay."

Mark~ Your statements are correct. The "preliminary" offer was basically the same deal that Doc signed for. Lee's agent made a counter-offer to the Phils (not disclosed) and then the Phils took their offer off the table. Discussions ended at that point, that's true, and the Phils got Doc. The Phils knew Lee wanted more than they were willing to pay. The fault with Amaro here is that he traded Lee too soon. Hw should have waited some to see if a better offer came along.

[Sophist]

Yeah, ESPN, FWIW, seems to be reporting this as a possible companion trade (moving Werth to a place like Tampa to free up money). Somewhat concerning.

We'll see if anything at all happens anyway.

[Greg V.]

Here's a nice shake up! Vance Worley! Drew Carpenter optioned to Triple-A.

[EastFallowfield]

What's Worley's WAR?

[tutpsu]

Worley's WAR sounds like a BBC series.

[eitheror]

Ed Wade, Ruben Amaro Jr., and Andrew Friedman walk into a bar... what is the best case scenario? Ruben and Ed get to leave with the clothes they came in with. Ed gets a middle reliever and Rube gets a veteran with a multi-year deal and a high-ceiling low probablity prospect.

[GTown_Dave]

Matt Gelb (via Twitter): "Phillies have called up Vance Worley from Reading. Optioned Carpenter."

Andrew Carpenter, we hardly knew ye. In the end he was neither as bad as I had expected (although pitching Baez directly after undoubtedly made Carpenter appear better by comparison than he actually is), nor the rotation-saving tonic for which B. Ruffin had hoped.

[bay_area_phan]

Now that's a strange move, considering that Worley pitched 8 innings just 3 days. So, he's obviously not being called up to pitch relief; he's being called up to start on Saturday or Sunday. The Phillies are really grasping at straws if they think he'll be any better than Carpenter, let alone Kendrick or Happ.

[Bonehead]

Promoting Worley also necessitates a 40-man roster move, doesn't it?

[Jack]

bap: I'm pretty sure "grasping at straws" is a pretty apt description for most of what's going on with the Phillies right now.

[Jack]

Bonehead: Does losing Figueroa count?

[NEPP]

****When a guy hits .297/.405/.543 while playing great defense at multiple positions, do you not not think that's very valuable?***

Was his defense really that great or is a function of small sample size due to several positions in just one year...That's the issue in his case. The 3 year of sample size they claim is necessary doesnt exist for him and they turn around and argue that he was basically the most valuable player in baseball last year.

*****And yet your conclusion is that WAR is flawed and ERA+(a stat that doesn't adjust for defense) is not. You have to be able to abandon what you are sure you know.****

Did you want me to list out their ERAs, IP, etc etc...I could you know. One has an ERA well over 6...another has one in the high 4s. ERA+ is a shorthand comparison of their line stats.

[eitheror]

Nope, I just want you to understand that ERA+ ignores the effects of defense and luck. WAR factors it in. Also WAR uses proper linear weights whereas ERA+ does not. I'd like you to look at methodology and then decide which stat makes the most sense.

http://www.fangraphs.com/graphs/6230_4849_P_cseason_full_3_20100720.png

[bay_area_phan]

I don't subscribe to any scouting websites, but I seem to recall reading that Worley's a no-stuff finesse guy with so-so control, who tries to induce a lot of ground balls, but isn't very good at doing so. If my description is correct, that would make him a wilder version of Kyle Kendrick. What could possibly go wrong?

[Alex]

Please eat Baez's salary or put him on the DL with some phantom injury.

[EastFallowfield]

.

[baxter]

Worley's fastball comes in around 92-95, so he's no Andrew Carpenter. Still, he profiles as a 5th starter/middle reliever.