Choose wisely: Beerleaguer trade bonanza thread

1:30 p.m. The Astros claimed Nelson Figueroa off waivers and plan to have him join the team Friday. The 36-year-old right-hander went 2-1 with a 3.46 ERA in 13 appearances, including a spot start. He was designated for assignment for the second time by the Phillies on July 15 to make room for Chad Durbin. Figueroa cleared waivers seven weeks ago, but this time, Ed Wade bit. The Houston Chronicle reports that one more move corresponding to the Astros' 25-man roster will be announced postgame. Beerleaguer: Figueroa is the type of pitcher teams reach for when they're unsure what the short-term future holds, so it's interesting in light of today's speculation.

10:30 a.m. CSNPhilly's Jim Salisbury reiterates on radio that the Phillies are scouting Dan Haren tonight, but they are really working on getting Roy Oswalt, reflecting Salisbury's earlier report on the Phillies' particular interest in the Astros' right-hander.

10:05 a.m. The Houston Chronicle reports that the Phillies and Astros are engaged in advanced talks regarding right-hander Roy Oswalt. Last night, ESPN and multiple other outlets reported that the Phils are talking about a three-way deal involving Jayson Werth going to the Rays with prospects going from Tampa to Houston.

(Getty Images)

Comments

[Jbird]

If TB's parting with a guy like Hellikson or Davis, I'd kinda rather have them for the next 6 years at a reasonable salary than Oswalt at market rate for 2. If you can have Hellickson, for example, and still have $14.5 million to spend elsewhere, wouldn't that be better than Oswalt and $0 to spend elsewhere? I don't think Oswalt will make a big enough difference over his next 15 starts this year to make up the Phillies deficit. Trading for Oswalt is more of a move to set yourself up for a run in the playoffs, not to get to the playoffs. And the Phillies need to try to get in 1st.

[Bedrosian's Beard]

I think Happ is being undervalued here. IF his arm is ok, he's much better than Kendrick. I'd move him in the right deal, but if the Astros/Rays are asking for Werth + Happ, I don't know if I do that. Happ and his contract are too valuable to the Phils right now.

[CTHRASH]

How about Rizotti and Ibanez for Oswalt? We take on all of Oswalt's salary and pay for the rest of Ibanez this year. The Astros need a successor to Berkman.....

[CJ]

Bed Beard: I do not support including Happ. Who has suggested he's in the deal?

[aksmith]

Very little of this trade talk makes any sense. Werth gives the Astros nothing except the possibility of two draft picks after the season, and then they take the risk that he accepts arb (the worse he plays, the more possible that becomes, although not likely.) If the Stros can flip him for prospects, then maybe it makes sense. But the Phillies taking on Oswalt's contract makes no sense at all. And he has a recurring back problem, doesn't he?

If the Rays really want Werth, then Amaro should just take the prospects they're willing to give up, if that's even true. They're likely to be better than what he got for Pfeifer Lee.

[David W]

Budgets change. I think Monty et al panicked when Amaro was close to finalizing the Halladay deal and arbitrarily imposed a "hard" budget which caught Amaro by surprised, leading to a too-quick unloading of Lee. Now, in typical Philly passive-aggressive fashion, the FO realizes that the revenue streams are in jeopardy if the team doesn't improve and suddenly the budget limits are more flexible. The Lee deal was atrocious, and a deal for another starter would to some degree confirm that, but I for one applaud this attempt to correct the biggest fo mistake in several years.

[Chris in VT]

If it wasn't about money doesn't that just make Rube an unbelievable moron?

I mean, if ownership didn't tell him he HAD to trade Lee, and he decided to do it anyway (for whatever reason), he just looks stupid. I mean, incredibly dumb.

I kinda hope ownership did tell him he had to, or else there's a smug, insufferable moron running my favorite team.

[NEPP]

****By the way, when this deal happens, how will anyone be able to argue that the Lee deal was all about money when it turns out that Oswalt will cost more? ;-)****

We've always been at war with Eastasia.

[timr]

As mentioned on the last thread, Oswalt is under contract next year as well, which (at least theoretically) justifies the salary. Lee was dealt b/c he was not under contract after this year, and Rube thought they wouldn't be able to afford the long-term deal he wanted.

I mean, the Lee trade was bad, but getting Oswalt doesn't contradict any of Rube's statements about it.

[NEPP]

****And he has a recurring back problem, doesn't he? ****

Which has limited him to 201 innings a year in his last 3 full seasons and just 217 a year in his last 6 full seasons.

[Heather]

"I kinda hope ownership did tell him he had to, or else there's a smug, insufferable moron running my favorite team"

A thousand times this. A million times this.

[RedBurb]

It's funny reading today. On the one hand you have logical, coherent posters arguing the logistics and the pros and cons of these trades.

On the other you have posters who spew hatred and anger with no point in place other than to throw negative comment after negative comment.

[Bedrosian's Beard]

ak: That's why the thrid team comes in, the prospects go to the Astros.

[The Truth Injection]

I love the people who are posting that flipping Werth in a deal for Oswalt is a bad idea and proves Ruben to be incompetent.

If he involves Werth in a deal that gets us Oswalt I'd be ecstatic. It is not going to be a straight trade between us and the Astros because there is no way we have enough to give them unless we seriously weakened our major league team (something like Werth, Happ, and maybe Mayberry who could be the 4th or 5th outfielder next year).

There almost assuredly has to be a third team involved and they would be giving up the big prospects to the Astros as part of being involved. We may have to kick in a low level guy or we may not but I can't see us having to kick in a big name prospect. We would probably have to kick in a second tier prospect to Houston.

But the move is easily defensible. Oswalt is here through next season if we get him. That gives us the vaulted 3 headed monster at the top of the rotation with an option to keep them together thru 2012 if we see fit. Werth is not going to sign here in the off-season. Even if they could offer him the contract he will seek they would let him walk because they have Brown ready to come up.

I could rationalize taking the two picks in a deep draft but I still ask- do you really trust the ability of this team to not blow those draft picks? Oswalt can definitely help us for the next 1 or 2 seasons- the draft picks will not, and may never help us.

Additionally, this could be the kick in the ass the team needs, and it isn't a foolish move where you are focusing on the short term and ignoring the long term.

[The Truth Injection]

2 more things:

1.) That FanGraphs article just emphasizes what happens when people go overboard using stats. Especially the imperfect WAR stat.

2.) Moving Werth now means that for 2 months Dom Brown gets to come up and get accustomed to major league pitching. that could pay dividends next season. Let him get his feet wet now and then he should be ready to tear in 2011.

[RSB]

My take on all this is that such a move would be made, as much as anything, to try to give this team a sorely needed kick in the ass. Of course, that's largely based on the assumption that Domonic Brown would come up and start raking a la Heyward in April, but it might be a chance worth taking if you think (and why not) that this season could be salvaged. What this team appears to need more than anything is something to shatter the staleness that's set in. I still (and will always!) believe this was the primary purpose behind the Abreu trade four years ago, and obviously Amaro recalls the effect that (appeared to have!) had. Obviously not a guarantee that it would breathe new life into the season, but I'd say it's a shot worth taking.

People seem to mostly be basing the negativity toward Amaro on the Cliff Lee giveaway. Knowing this organization, I have to pin that more on those ranking higher than the guys in the GM chairs; I sorely doubt it was an idea they came up with on their own. I look at Amaro and I see, finally, a guy wholly willing to make bolder moves on a more consistent basis than anyone since Paul Owens. For years, we raised a collective stink (and rightly so) for the lack of in-season action from the likes of Wade and even Gillick; now, we have a guy who provides more trade deadline and hot stove headlines than anyone in the game, and without saying the guy is beyond criticism, I appreciate the willingness Amaro has shown to make heavy-duty moves instead of tinkering around and going after the Cory Lidles of the world.

I think also that a huge key to the success of this team were Werth to be dealt would be how Ben Francisco could help the lineup from the right side. He would probably be more or less an everyday player in the final two months, and with regular playing time, he could *possibly* help make up for some of Werth's absent production. And he would be another different sort of presence in the lineup that drastically needs a different sort of dynamic.

And then if they were to make the playoffs, they'd have the strong three starters. Look, someone, be it the Amaro faction or Montgomery, obviously blew it with Lee. The idea of having to trade for another, lesser staring pitcher at this point just makes that move look all the worse. Nevertheless, for the sake of where things stand right now, I say it might be an okay idea to get behind this kind of trade, unless you think it's a better idea to write off this season.

[philwynk]

So, I watched the "Downfall" overdub about Ruben Amaro on YouTube (http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XeBti-vMhbQ ,)and it was hilarious. But I have a question:

Who is Mike Arbuckle, and was he really so important to the Phillies organization? I thought the good scouting and team construction was the work of Pat Gillick. Will somebody give me a thumbnail history?

[Chris in VT]

TTI - I don't disagree at all, but if there really are "big prospects" going to the Stros from a 3rd team (like Wade Davis from TB), I'd rather have them.

Players like that are ML-ready and can contribute now but are also under cheap team control for 6 years. If that's the type of deal we're doing (Werth to TB, Davis+ to Houston, Oswalt to Philly), I'd rather just cut Oswalt out and get TB's high-end prospects.

[aksmith]

NEPP - Yeah, he's thrown a lot of innings the last six seasons. But that has little bearing going forward. It all depends what the problem is.

What I was asking before your sarcastic (SURPRISE!) reply was whether I was remembering incorrectly that he has a recurrent back problem. Do you have information on that? Or do you just have the numbers from previous seasons that someone posted earlier in the thread?

[crisco]

In considered a possible move to acquire Oswalt and the money that would have been saved by keeping Lee you'd have to think that ownership realized there plan has backfired. They did not expect such an enormous drop off from the team they fielded last year.

I imagine they assumed that by trading Lee for a trio of (possibly) middling prospects and getting Halladay they would still be contenders and cruise easily to their fourth straight NL East title. Instead they are confronted with the reality that their players aren't preforming and are considering that perhaps if they shake things up a bit there might still be a chance this year. If not well they have a solid 1 through 3 in the rotation next year and despite spending more money it could put them in a position of contention next year.

The Lee trade was a business move and based on video of JC Ramirez I've been watching we might have gotten a little bit of value back. It's a long shot but he's been pretty solid the last few starts though I admit to being about a week behind on his progression. We can criticize RAJ all we want but we aren't in his position and if we were we'd probably been forced to pull something similar off. I am not an apologist but for God's sake you people whine and complain like no one else. S**t I'm a diehard Phillies fan and I don't see us taking that horrible of a direction backwards. I don't expect a WFC every year. It took the Yankees 9 years between victories for crying out loud. Prior to the latter part of the 90's they hadn't won since 78.

All the panic being spewed that we'll unload our best prospects for either Oswalt or Haren I consider to be a bit premature. I suggest everyone to relax, take a deep breath, perhaps go for a beer and wait to see how this plays out before erupting into a fury.

Thank you

[aksmith]

Has anyone here seen Wade Davis pitch? I have not. Is he better than (when healthy) Happ, for instance?

[Chris in VT]

philwynk - Arbuckle was the scouting and player development director for the last decade or so before Gillick retired and Amaro took over GM duties. Arbuckle lost out on the GM spot to Amaro (both were in line to succeed Gillick) and left the organization to take over an Asst. GM position (I believe) with the Royals.

He's the one responsible for drafting all the Phils' core (Howard, Utley, Hamels, etc.).

[Heather]

"I'd rather just cut Oswalt out and get TB's high-end prospects"

Yeah, I'd rather have Shields or Davis...UNLESS as part of the deal Houston picks up an insane amount of Oswalt's salary. Like 50-75%.

[J.R. King]

philwynk: There are those that believe Mike Arbuckle ran the Phillies draft room and was responsible for bringing in Utley, Howard, Hamels, Rollins, Myers, Madson, etc.

[Jbird]

So Buster Olney backs up my point. . . 1 starting pitcher is not going to make up a 7 game difference over his 15 remaining starts all by himself. I'd hope we'd be getting an A grade prospect from Tampa becasue 1/2 season of Werth and 2 compensatory picks in a deep draft is a "valuable bleeping thing", to quote my favorite disgraced governor / reality tv star. And, if we're getting an A grade prospect like Hellickson, Jennings, or Wade from Tampa, aren't we better of keeping him and trying to get a salary dump pitcher to bolster the rotation or get Oswalt for a bevy of our toolsy outfielders like James, Gose and/or Gillies and May and Mathieson?

[Heather]

"There are those that believe Mike Arbuckle ran the Phillies draft room and was responsible for bringing in Utley, Howard, Hamels, Rollins, Myers, Madson, etc."

Then why on earth did Amaro get the job? His smugness?

[philwynk]

JR King, Chris in VT,

Thanks. And now your opinions: was Arbuckle actually responsible for bringing in Utley, Howard, Hamels, Rollins, Myers, and Madson?

I'm curious to hear what people are saying about this.

[jason.tp]

can we please blame our pathetic players instead?

Jimmy Rollins is getting away with murder right now.

[The Truth Injection]

Why do some of you keep mentioning this as if this will be a straight up trade between the Phillies and Astros?

The Astros do not want nor need Jayson Werth. They have Carlos Lee, Michael Bourn, and Hunter Pence in their outfield. They would not trade Oswalt for a 4th outfielder. Additionally the Phillies have a valuable commodity in Werth. So he goes to a team that wants him, prospects go to Houston, and we get Oswalt. It's fairly simple.

i know people think Amaro is a dope but there is no way he is going to trade anything of huge value out of our farm system. He might have to give up a guy in this trade but he won't trade 3 or 4 guys to acquire Oswalt.

[Bedrosian's Beard]

Even if the Phillies Mgmt., realized they screwed up with the Lee situation (if that's how they actually feel), i'm glad they're not letting that hold them up making another SP splash.

[Chris in VT]

philwynk - From everything I've read, Arbuckle ran the Phils' draft room under Wade and was the one who picked the players, so yes I'd say he was.

Heather - From what I gathered, the perspective on Arbuckle (who's been a GM candidate at several points in his career) is that he's an excellent "super-scout" who isn't necessarily capable of handling the organizational duties of a GM. But I may be totally off-base on that.

[CJ]

Why does anyone believe TB's major league-ready prospects would be involved in the Werth deal? They're not going to deal their top AAA pitching prospects for a couple month rental in RF.

When this deal goes down, you'll see Oswalt to Philly, Werth to TB and some of TB's younger prospects to Houston with perhaps a guy like Mathieson thrown in to Houston from Philly.

That's my story, and I'm sticking to it.

[Old Phan]

"can we please blame our pathetic players instead?"

Where I might not have used the word "pathetic", I agree with the sentiment. The team is not where it is right now because of Rube or the FO. It is because few of the players are playing at their full potential.

[Chris in VT]

"Why does anyone believe TB's major league-ready prospects would be involved in the Werth deal?"

Because when you look at the deals Ed Wade made as the Phils' GM he almost always insisted on getting "ML-ready" prospects.

[TK]

Huh? Shields or Davis instead of Oswalt? "Are you f'ing high?"

[Chris in VT]

Davis costs next to nothing, and his talent level is not that far off from Oswalt's. With Davis instead the Phils would have a pitcher close to as good, a decade younger, under team control for anothe 6 years for peanuts, and an extra 14-15 mil in the budget for next year.

So, no, you don't have to be high to see the logic in that.

[philwynk]

Personally, I'll be pretty disappointed if the FO trades Happ.

I think the Beerleaguer clan uniformly understates his upside. He could be a reliable #3 starter for 5 years or more, at a remarkably low price. If he's not, it will be because of injuries. The kid's got talent.

[jason.tp]

cj: Tampa isnt getting Jayson Werth for lower level minor league prospects, unless they have some really high ceilings.

I think a Wade Davis is a fair starting peice to start discussions.

[CJ]

Chris in VT: That may very well be Wade's preference, but I can't see it happening. If Wade wants someone "major league-ready," he likely get some secondary prospects.

[Sophist]

Chris - If that is all true, why would the Rays trade Davis (or any of their top 5 prospects) for Werth?

[Bedrosian's Beard]

philwynk: I'm with you on Happ. Close enough. He's no Kendrick.

[Dan]

I saw Hyatt was the scheduled starter for Clearwater but is not pitching...scratched?

[Chris in VT]

Because they have so many young SP prospects that they can't even find room for Jeremy Hellickson, who is one of the best pitching prospects in baseball, in AAA, and a potential future ace.

Seriously, Price, Davis, Shields, Niemann, etc. etc. That is one place they are absolutely stacked, and they need a power-hitting OF since BJ Upton has gone in the bag.

Not to mention they probably are pretty confident in their ability to use the draft picks wisely.

[Jack]

Sophist: Because the Rays have a chance to win now, and they've got a deep system with power arms (including Hellickson, who is MLB-ready and couple replace Davis right now). Also, because Werth provides two extra draft picks for them, so his value is more than just the two months on the field.

[CJ]

jason.tp: Obviously they'd be players with high ceilings. Tampa could easily build a package around pitching prospect Matt Moore.

[Bedrosian's Beard]

I need to research this, but in one recent updated prospect list, Hellickson was rated very high, but the review then said he was more of a #3 type.

[CJ]

Jack: Sure, Rays could win now, but their window isn't exactly about to shut and their top position prospect is in the OF. Rays have plenty of prospect depth to make a deal for a rental in Werth and not have to use Davis or Hellickson.

[Chris in VT]

CJ - "That may very well be Wade's preference, but I can't see it happening. If Wade wants someone "major league-ready," he likely get some secondary prospects."

Think about the deals he made for Schilling (Daal, Lee, Figueroa) and Rolen (Smith, Polanco), and the trade of Lidge (Bourn, Costanzo). In every single one he got lower-ceiling ML-ready players instead of higher-ceiling younger players. It just seems to be his MO.

I don't think TB's trading guys like Wade Davis, but my questions was if the deal is something like that (Werth to TB, Davis+ to Houston, Oswalt to Philly) why bother including Houston at all?

[phanatic's brother]

Hunter Pence to the Phils.

Wheelers wet dreams come true.

[CJ]

Chris in VT: I think we're talking past each other. My point is that Tampa will not deal their top major-league ready prospects for Werth. Wade may get his wish in "major league-ready" players, but he'll have to settle for lesser prospects. I don't see Davis or Hellickson in the deal.

[Chris in VT]

CJ - That's why I ended my post with:

"I don't think TB's trading guys like Wade Davis, but my questions was if the deal is something like that (Werth to TB, Davis+ to Houston, Oswalt to Philly) why bother including Houston at all?"

We agree on this, I'm asking the question IF Davis or someone like him is in the deal, why bother with Houston at all?

[DPatrone]

TTI~ You are correct. The proposed deal is Werth to TB not Houston for prospects, then the prospects being flipped to Houston with Oswalt coming to the Phils. I said this earlier and people just don't listen.

And finally, on the Lee trade once again people, read my posts. It was baout Lee wanting to be a FA and the Phils did not want to pay 20 mil per for 6 or 7 years. That's want Lee wants. That's why every team he's pitched for recently traded him. This Phils do not give longer than 3-years to ANY pitcher. The Yanks didn't panic when they didn't get last week. They're getting him in the off-season. he will replace Petitte who'll retire. You need not be a rocket scientist to figure this out.

[Bedrosian's Beard]

John Manuel:

4. Jeremy Hellickson, rhp, Rays (Triple-A Durham): Jennings' teammate at Durham has had a better year and is a safer bet but has a bit lower ceiling. Hellickson has improved his two-seamer and added a cutter this season to complement his 91-92 mph four-seam fastball, which he commands well, and his plus changeup. "The only question was the life on his fastball," one scout said, "and now he's really got that two-seamer working. He's a sure-bet No. 3 starter and probably more of a future No. 2."

[Jack]

DPatrone: Everyone knows Lee was going to hit free agency, and the Phils would not give him the contract he wants. No one cares about this. The issue with Lee that still gets debated is only whether it was worth it to keep him for this year and take the draft picks, or flip him for prospects (which the Phils obviously did).

Why does anyone still talk about signing Lee long-term? We know that wasn't going to happen. It's not an issue of any relevance.

[phillengood]

OK Clout where u at on this? Post something Elvis! Love to hear your take on this.

[Bedrosian's Beard]

Jack: Tell that to many of the other posters.

[Lynsk]

How about this for a "major move" wake up call for the lineup since Tampa Bay has been mentioned as a trading partner?

Werth for Crawford?

Both are in the last years of their deals and looking to get paid.

Obviously there are way too many reasons this trade won't happen.

[MG]

This has been a good thread. Lots of good points and got things out of the post-ASB doldrums.

[jason.tp]

So the phillies had no chance to re-sign Werth, but now we can add a $16M pitcher?

[The Truth Injection]

I can give you that Davis is under team control longer and younger. However, he is not close to Oswalt in terms of talent. At least not yet.

[MG]

DPatrone - Yeah. I would be really surprised if Lee doesn't end up in pinstripes this offseason. Yanks have a couple of big deals coming off the books (Jeter, Rivera, Petitte, Vasquez) so throwing 20M at Lee for 5 years is no sweat. Their payroll might even be a little lower next year depending on what they do.

Basically become like an amoeba. They just surround & deliever. They have a bad contract or two? Oh well. Just as long as they don't have several at one time.

[Chris in VT]

Jeter and Rivera aren't coming off the books, they're just getting new 20 million dollar deals.

I think the BoSox have as much of a shot at signing Lee as the Yanks, considering they legitimately have close to 40 mil coming off their payroll (Ortiz, Lowell, Drew).

[Kutztown Fan]

MG, I'm curious. What do you think will happen to Jeter, Rivera, Petitte, and Vasquez? Will the Yankees re-sign all to cheaper deals? Sign a couple (Jeter? Rivera?) and let others walk?

We keep talking about the age of the Phillies. The Yankees have some older stars as well.

[TK]

on what planet is Wade Davis almost as talented as Oswalt? And who the hell cares how old he is. The championship window isn't 10 years.

[DPatrone]

Jack~ It's only relevent because people keep bringing it up, saying it's going to cost more this year overall by getting Oswalt rather than retaining Lee. About getting the 2 picks etc.

It became moot the moment they did it. No one liked it but that's what they did. People still harp on it. Yes, we'd be better if he were here but we still wouldn't be leading the divsion.

Give Amaro some credit. He's realized his mistakes (Castro, possibly Lee) and he's trying to rectify them. When you wanna dance you usually have to find a partner and everything's gotta fit. Amaro he's has to fix the rotation out of necessity and he's working on it. What remains to be seen it who we give up.

What is not being addressed at the moment is this: Getting a top-shelf starter now does not fix the other problems on this team. What may be done about them may not happen now. If they are not addressed, is Amaro resigning himself to the fact that we probably won't make the playoffs this year? If he is, then a possible Oswalt deal will help for the next couple of years.

What is all boils down to is the Phils have the money to do whatever they want. Whether they spend it is another story.

[MG]

Fan - Rivera and Jeter will definitely resign. Yanks would take a huge hit otherwise. Rivera might retire though to spend more time with his family (that is the speculation though). My bet is if they win the WS again that Rivera will retire.

Jeter is making $22.5M and Rivera is making $15M. My bet is that Jeter signs the last contract of his career. It will be ridiculous in terms of dollars but that really doesn't matter. I bet he gets something in the neighborhood of a 4-yr/$75-$80M deal and that it gets done pretty quickly.

[CJ]

Chris in VT: Exactly. If Wade Davis is in the deal, Houston isn't needed. Even more evidence that Davis isn't.

[Rire Fube]

Has anyone heard anything about Matt Cain being available? I heard from a friend that his name was being thrown around by someone on 97.5 today. I cant imagine the Giants would be willing to give him up but I'd love to have him

[Pat]

from MLBTradeRumors:

The Astros claimed infielder Anderson Hernandez off waivers from the Indians and pitcher Nelson Figueroa off waivers from the Phillies, tweets Alyson Footer. She adds that pitcher Polin Trinidad was designated for assignment and another corresponding move will be announced after the game.

[Kutztown Fan]

Jeter's like 36 years old, right? Doesn't it seem like he's been playing for the Yankees for 30 years?

I can't see them not signing him, but a 4 year deal? A 40 year old shortstop?

[The Truth Injection]

MG: I have a feeling that Rivera will retire as well. Pettitte might but I think he's too much of a competitor to just walk away. Vazquez will most certainly be gone if they sign Lee.

Jeter will get a big deal for crazy money and really he should. That guy has meant everything to that franchise for 15 years now. You always hear about the greats that walked through Yankee Stadium over the years and he really is the modern day example of that. I can't even hate the guy because he's been a class act all through his years and doesn't do anything to actively make you hate him like an A-Rod or a Clemens does.

[bay_area_phan]

"My take on all this is that such a move would be made, as much as anything, to try to give this team a sorely needed kick in the ass."

You know what's so funny about this post from RSB? Yesterday, I was looking through the game thread from the same date (7-20) in 2008, & here was the post from none other than RSB: "This team needs a swift kick in the ass even more than it needs pitching."

Maybe we can just keep Jayson Werth & trade a couple of B prospects for a swift kick in the ass.

[Bedrosian's Beard]

I'm a Jeter guy, but this could be a reason many actively hate him:

Minka Kelly, Jessica Biel, Scarlett Johansson,Laura Dutta, Vanessa Minnillo, Gabrielle Union and Jessica Alba....

[TonyCimone]

DPatrone you must have failed logic in school if you ever took it. Teams trade Lee because he is a valuable commodity not because they couldnt sign him. He didnt make any salary demands you are believing the phils spin. The phils never negotiated with him, they traded him as soon as they got Halladay. It's always the guy who got traded fault. Rolen, Schilling Lee float a story about how they really didnt want to stay here. I am looking forward to hearing the story about Werth.

[MG]

DPatrone - Yeah. It doesn't fix the fact that they have two middle INF who are sub .600 OPS the past month, a shaky bullpen highlighted by an inconsistent Lidge/shaky Madson/only one lefty, and a couple of guys who won't be 100% all year (Polanco, JRoll, and Utley).

It was pretty obvious though even before the break that team was going to have 3-4 holes and Amaro was only going to be able to address 1-2 of them.

[Brian G]

That fangraphs article is just incredibly arrogant and stupid at points. For example: "There is about a 1% chance that Dominic(sic) Brown can even approach Jayson Werth's value this season".. really? 1%? As in, we could play the rest of this season 100 times and only once would Brown outperform Werth? Give me a break. Has a rookie prospect never had a hot start before? Especially one as talented as Brown?
Furthermore, the downgrading of Howard is grotesque. I know what all of their statistical calculations say, but the guy drives in 140 runs every single year. At what point does his much much better performance with runners on/RISP stop being considered a statistical fluke by those nerds? 5 years isn't enough? Would 10 do it? His WPA over the last 3-4 years blows Werth's out of the water. And unlike WAR, that stat actually uses context.
Finally, the guy muddles the part where he discusses the fact that Werth will be replaced by Brown, a top ten overall prospect, whereas Oswalt would be replacing Kendrick/Moyer, who are both only slighly better than replacement pitchers this point. That is, we'd be trading a slight drop off for a HUGE improvement.

The overriding motivation for that article was to vent at Amaro for Howard's crazy contract. Those guys need to get over themselves, analyze things on a case by case basis, and stop letting every Howard 3 run homer drive them insane.

[bay_area_phan]

"The Astros claimed infielder Anderson Hernandez off waivers from the Indians and pitcher Nelson Figueroa off waivers from the Phillies."

Now I'm hearing that we would deal Werth to Tampa for prospects, and we'd flip the prospects to Houston for Nelson Figueroa.

[RSB]

BAP: ha! well, maybe it did.

[bay_area_phan]

RSB: I think your post was written a day or two after we traded for Blanton -- a trade which did, indeed, supply a swift kick in the ass (not to mention, a substantial pitching upgrade).

[The Truth Injection]

BB: I don't hate him for that. I think his d!ck should be bronzed for that run of greatness.

[Chris in VT]

"Now I'm hearing that we would deal Werth to Tampa for prospects, and we'd flip the prospects to Houston for Nelson Figueroa."

At least then people could stop whining that we're going to miss the playoffs because we don't have Figueroa as the long-man in the BP anymore ;)

[Heather]

FWIW about Lee, I think the Rangers have absolutely no doubt Lee is going to NY.

The Rangers have already announced Lee will pitch every 5th day regardless of the rotation. They sure want to get their money's worth out of that rental.

That's not really how you treat a guy you expect will stick around.

[Bedrosian's Beard]

I think Lee wants to go out there every 5th day. Just don't make it every 3rd or 4th day.

[MG]

Tony - That would be a practrice from the 'Bad-Old' Days where one of the Phils' FO cronies like Green or someone would give a couple of quotes and the Phils would subtly rip the guy they just traded away be obviously leaking some info to the local media guys.

[Tim]

1. Trading Werth. Yes do it. They should have traded him instead of Lee in the first place. If they can get a solid "MLB ready" pitcher from TB for him, or some stud 5 tool outfielder, I do it.

2. If I can't get the guy I want from TB, then I do the three team trade with Houston and bring in Oswalt. I would be shocked if somebody like Kendrick or even Madson didn't have to go to Houston in that deal though. I wouldn't do it for Happ. It wouldn't shock me if they could con Wade into taking Blanton.

3. I hate to say it, but Werth isn't he problem. It's Ibanez in left field. He was hitting 3rd last night! 3rd! How is that allowed?

4. If they get Hunter Pence to play right field to replace Werth, I'll be thrilled. It would take an pretty huge deal to get all that done though. Werth to TB. TB prospects to Houston. Oswalt/Pence to Philly. Madson/Kendrick to Houston. I'm just thinking out loud but I think that makes some sense (especially if Houston really is blowing things up and Phillies can take on whatever salary that is).

Good luck RAJ.

[eitheror]

Waiting for substantial criticisms of WAR...

[Dave]

This is great news! Now we will have 3 good starting pitchers who don't get any run support instead of 2.

[Bay Slugga]

Eitheror: I like WAR, and look to it often to value a player. My problem with WAR is how it treats players like Ryan Howard. IMO Howard is capable playing average defense at a position where defense isn't as important as some others, and Howard is one of the best pure power hitters in the league. WAR would tell you that Howard is a productive player, but I think it substantially undervalues him. If Ryan Howard was a catcher, he would be putting up 10+ WAR seasons? Seems a tad skewed to me.

[TK]

Eitherer, here you go.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bX7V6FAoTLc

[NEPP]

At least we can officially blame David Herndon for us losing Figueroa. Not that its a huge deal either way.

[MG]

http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/columns/story?columnist=crasnick_jerry&page=starting9/100721

Good thing Rube isn't trading for trade for a reliever. Largely a bunch of unk or guys (Downs/Nunez) who will require a real high asking price.

Trading for a starter at the deadline is always a crapshoot because they will only have about 10-11 starts with their new team. Trading a reliever is even more a risk because of their limited apperance. You are talking probably a max of 30 IP and probably closer to 25 IP.

[phlipper]

Here's what might be fun to watch.

Say Amaro pulls off a trade of Werth, a regular subject of BL scorn recently, and a player who will either require a very expensive signing or net a relatively meager return.

And say after the trade, the Phils have a 1-3 rotation of Doc, Hamels, and Oswalt.

Compare that, folks, to the 1-3 just a short time ago of Hamels, Myers, and Blanton.

And I absolutely guarantee that even in the light of such an unarguably substantial improvement, the complaining about Amaro will continue unabated.

Ok - time to go collect my Phillies paycheck now.

[MG]

phlipper - Your $.15 cent residual check is in the mail . . .

[DPatrone]

MG~ Agreed.

Tony C.~ Yes Lee is a valuable trade commodity because he is a top-noth starter and and garners a gig return. And if Cleveland could have signed him they would not have traded him. Same with the Phils. Same with Seattle. That's my point, which you are missing.

I believe Rube did make an offer to him and he turned it down, so he traded him. I believe the Phils also tried to re-sign Werth. That appears dead so they will trade him as well.

So no I didn't fail logic in college and yes, I took it.

[DPatrone]

I did fail typing though. I meant "big return". Sorry.

[Jbird]

The Indians took a sore armed pitcher and a used fungo bat for Cliff Lee, I wonder what they'd want for Fausto Carmona.

[DPatrone]

Questions for anyone to answer. With figgy being claimed by the Astros, any chance he comes back to the Phils in the possible Oswalt deal. Would they have put DFA him if they wanted to remove him form the 25-man at some point?

[Andrew Cleveland Alexander]

I wonder if the Figueroa waiver claim might not be somehow related to another looming transaction. Lots of turmoil on the Phillies' 40-man roster right now--and maybe Amaro wants to stash a #5 starter/mopup guy someplace else for a couple of days until the dust clears, with the gentleman's agreement understanding that he'll be heading right back across the transaction wire as a throw-in to a larger Oswalt deal. Just a thought.

[NEPP]

Or Wade is really intent on finally getting some value for the Schilling trade.

[Jbird]

DPatrone: just because a player doesn't sign, doesn't mean you have to trade him, especially in a year the team has championship aspirations. You just let him walk at the end of the year (hopefull a WFC year), take the draft picks, and use the money elsewhere. That's what the Yankees did with Damon and Matsui. Worked out well for them too.