Poll: Sizing up the Phillies' second-half obstacles

Make your selection and discuss in the thread below.

Comments

[CJ]

I'll say it again... the big problem with bringing up Brown is that we already have Francisco and Gload (not to mention Dobbs) on the bench.

Safe assumption that Schneider and Francisco aren't going anywhere. That leaves Castro, Dobbs and Gload (I'm plugging Valdez in at 2nd as long as Utley is out). You can't drop Castro since he's our only IF backup.

Are we dropping Gload or Dobbs? I guess we could DFA Dobbs again... although he's certainly played better since being called back up. Gload's actually less flexible, but does he warrant being DFAed?

Will be an interesting decision.

[Bonehead]

Chris - Everything you say makes sense, but I still do not think that the Phils will eat that much salary.

[phlipper]

Just a hunch, but my guess is that the FO and Chuck aren't as convinced as your average BLer that Ibanez is washed up.

Thus, my guess is that the speculation about what they could do with Ibanez is wasting electrons.

Maybe, if at the end of the year Ibanez hasn't picked it up they'll consider some changes accordingly, but chances of that happening now? Almost nil. Bringing up Brown prior to call-ups? Ever so slightly higher.

[NEPP]

clout: This blog isn't for everyone. It's got its own personality and quirks. Those who don't like it or feel uncomfortable here should move on rather than hang around and whine about how rude people are.

Interesting.

[Bonehead]

phlipper - agreed.
If Ibanez doesn't pick it up, I think Plan B is to play/platoon Ben Fran more.

[Bonehead]

phlipper - agreed.
If Raul doesn't pick it up, I think the Phils' Plan B is to play/platoon BFran more.

[clout]

If Brown comes up he plays at least 5 games a week. There's no way they'll bring him up to sit.

[Jack]

Clearly, the FO isn't convinced that Brown is better than Ibanez going forward. If they were, they would replace him.

I trust that even this Front Office understands the concept of sunk costs.

[Bedrosian's Beard]

It's been reported that the Phils are shopping Ibanez, but it hasn't been reported how much $ they'd be willing to eat. I don't think they would bench/platoon Ibanez until after the trade deadline, if at all.

[DPatrone]

Rex~ I agree with your "my two cents" post earlier. Too much of what is posted is reponded to in a negative or out of context light.

People have strong opinions (and that is their right) or harp on different things for far too long. The Cliff Lee trade comes to mind. Whether we like it or not, it's over and done, yet people still talk about it. Why? Halladay is definitely an upgrade (Albeit a small one) over Lee and should have at least 14 wins. But do to lack of run support he doesn't. But he is everything he's supposed to be.

For whatever reason,whethter it was paying Lee's salary or something else Amaro thought it best to trade him. The issue is over. We can't go back and change history.

Sometimes, I post quite often here, and there are times where I don't post for weeks.
And like you it may be that I have nothing to say, or the topic doesn't interest me. I've been blasted here believe me. That doesn't mean anything if not taken personally. Not everyone always agrees with everyone else. You'll notice that I use my own name and some posters even respond to me that way.

There are some very knowledgable posters here and well some maybe not. What we all need to remember here (and this is not directed at you) is that we're all phans and we want to see our team win.

For all of the phans out there, lets hope the Phils capture their 4th staright division title. It won't be easy, but they can do it. I thank JW for allowing me to express my thoughts and opinions here

[philwynk]

I remember Jamie Moyer, who had a pretty good year in 2008, pretty much coming apart at the seams in the NLDS and NLCS in 2008. He did well enough against Tampa, but his playoff performance was less than inspiring overall.

I would not mind having a little more SP muscle in the rotation if we're going into the playoffs.

[MG]

Does anyone think the Phils can remotely move Ibanez and the remaning $17M on his contract? Me neither. This offseason maybe but the Phils aren't going to eat that kind of money to move him. He hasn't been that poor of a performer to eat that kind of money.

[DPatrone]

MG~ The only possible way they could move Raul is if an AL team needed a LH DH bat with some power potential because of an injury. And the Phils would have to eat a lot of his salary to get it done.

I'm more inclined to see what they do about Werth. My guess is he won't be traded. But they won't re-sign him either. I'd love to see RAJ get a starter, a reliever, and maybe bring up Brown. To me Castro is the one gone. I'd keep Ransson on the roster. I don't know if Rube can get this done though. It's a tall order. IMO.

[Reverend]

If you are looking at adding another starter why not go after Carmona? A sinkerballer is a great fit for CBP. He is young and cheap, but what would the Phills have to give up to get him?

[Bubba]

Well, Raul should go 4 for 5 with a game winning hit tonight, considering all the BL comments on his demise .

[CJ]

Odds of Phils dealing Raul Ibanez: 1 in 1,000,000

Makes too much money, is performing poorly and is a limited defender.

What makes him a tradeable commodity right now? Absolutely nothing.

[Will Schweitzer]

If the choice for Boston to contend with NY is either their top prospects for Werth or a lesser prospect and taking on the salary of Ibanez, it'll be interesting to see what they do.

Do they have more spendable cash for Raul with an extra year or do they have more expendable prospects to add more pop to their lineup with Werth?

[rk]

The history of the Phils is to continue with the program regardless of how costly. How else to explain: the Hebner years, the Feliz years and the Garcia years. Even the preoccupation with Lidge and surely management knew last year that he was done is emblematic of the Phillies style.
It would be nice if we could bring up Brown and let him platoon for the rest of the year to see if he emerges or if the rest is helpful to Ibanez.
The advantage would show up in the WS (if we ever make it in) because then having a bona fide day-to-day extra hitter will make the difference.

[PhillyRhetoric]

Reverend--Carmona is an interesting possibility. Are there any Cleveland fans left to get upset? Something tells me it'd take the moon for someone with that type of talent and that organization's need to staunch the PR bleeding they've taken from dealing CC and Lee the past two summers. Wouldn't bet on it.

How important are the next two weeks in determining where Blanton (DL or the farm?), Werth, and Ibanez suit up in August? I tend to think all three will end up being counted on until the end, but if they each pick it up out of the gate their chances of getting moved have got to go down.

[CJ]

Can someone explain how the "platoon" with Ibanez would work considering they're both left-handed?

If we're bringing up Brown, it's to play at least 4 or 5 games a week, right? He wouldn't be platooning with anyone... he'd be playing in place of Ibanez, Werth and Vic on certain days.

[Reverend]

CJ: Odds of Phils dealing Raul Ibanez: 1 in 1,000,000

So your saying there's a chance?

[rk]

CJ: Yes he would play and one of them would not. The thought in this thread has been Ibanez. As I pointed out the Phils are simply not goin g to trade him. Unless and this would be a typical Phils maneuver. They would hand him over to ChiSox for the return of Pink Floyd.

[Jack]

rk: Ibanez for Gavin Floyd? Kenny Williams would have a good laugh and then hang up the phone as soon as Amaro proposed that.

[Alvin]

@Greg V

They did not blow it on Cliff Lee. Sure it would have been great to get him, but word is they were asking for Ike Davis (1st base), along with a handful of their top, upper minor league level prospects, even though the Mariners eventually settled for Smoak, a few minor league bodies AND kicked in $$$.

Lee is a 3-month rental who will automatically bolt for the Yankees after the season is over and command Santana-like money. No baseball team since free agency started has ever had two pitchers in their rotation making $20+ mil. Mets had no intention of being the first. Not when both are 30+ years old next season.

[Meyer]

Doubt if you could get a worn out Ummagumma for Ibanez.

[Bay Slugga]

The daily news is talking like the Braves traded for Honus Wagner yesterday.

[rk]

I am not suggesting it. I wouldn’t want Floyd with is flawed mechanics. But as I recall we gave them Thome plus Thome’s salary and we got Freddy Garcia? I think it has been suggested we give away Ibanez plus his salary. So I thought it would be only fair to post a similar trade.

[bay_area_phan]

Problem with Carmona is that he has had a Brad Lidge-like career of very high highs & astonishingly bad lows. The team that trades for him is getting someone with very high bust potential.

[pb]

I saw on MLBTR that Quentin Berry was picked up off waivers by the Padres. What roster move did I miss that he need to be cut?

[Bay Slugga]

Pb: I think the waived Berry to make room for Madson on the 40 man roster.

[Bonehead]

pb-In May, Madson was moved from 15-day to 60-day DL, which took him off the 40-man roster. When he was activated, it necessitated a 40-man roster move.

[Kutztown Fan]

I skimmed the posts cuz I don't have much time, so forgive me if I'm reiterating what someone else might have posted....

I voted for "age and injury" because it came closest to what, I think, is the issue with the Phils, and that's lack of offense. I can understand how some people would look at the other options, but think about it.... if the Phils offense were performing at the level where it should, we wouldn't have to worry so much about pitching. Three straight shut outs at the hands of the Mets? How many games - total - did the Phils manage 3 or less runs? How many games did the Phils lose by one run? April showed that the Phils offense is much more potent than they showed since. Even the 4 game sweep of the Reds didn't show much offense by the Phils (except for one game). The pitching got it done there.

I realize that having Rollins, Utley, Polanco, and Ruiz on the DL for significant parts of this half season have put a dent in the offensive production. But that doesn't account for the decline of Ibanez, the sudden cooling off of Werth, the lack of power from Howard, and the continued plate-capriciousness of Victorino.

[clout]

rk: "I wouldn’t want Floyd with his flawed mechanics."

Gavin Floyd ERA+ and WHIP past 3 years:

119 1.26
115 1.23
105 1.29

Can't see why anybody would want a 27-year-old RHP who throws 190+ IP a year with those results.

Unbelievable.

[kuvasz]

"If you know the enemy and know yourself, you need not fear the result of a hundred battles. If you know yourself but not the enemy, for every victory gained you will also suffer a defeat. If you know neither the enemy nor yourself, you will succumb in every battle." Sun Tse

Which is why I consider it more important to focus on the team itself, viz., late inning relief, than anything external. The team will have to have confidence in the bull pen holding leads or it won't get to the play-offs. If the team does that, it wont matter about the rest.

[Heather]

"Is everyone convinced that Young Jamie would implode in a playoff or WFC game? I am far from convinced that he would"

I think he could flourish given the right set of circumstances (excellent control, wide strike zone) but either Manuel or Dubee would have to have a very short leash and be able to tell if Moyer is getting the calls he needs or not.

Unfortunately if you identify a situation where Moyer is likely to fail (the ump is not calling the corners, Moyer's leaving too many balls up) does Manuel and/or Dubee pull Moyer before a big inning happens? I say they don't.

That's why I would not feel entirely comfortable with Moyer in a playoff rotation.

[MG]

Some really tough choices. I voted age & injury. It would be really surprising to me if this team suddenly stays 100% healthy the rest of the year when Durbin & Polanco get back. Also pretty skeptical that Utley contributes in a meaningful way the rest of the year either. I was wrong in '07. Hope I am wrong again.

Phillies Flow did a nice job of showing in his last 2 posts that while the Phils' pitched has improved at preventing runs scored that their offense has taken a bigger dip so far. Also, did a nice job of showing the run disperion. Phils have had their share of games when they mashed this season (6+ runs) compared to the NL and they win a ton of those games.

The issue has been that this team has had way too many nights where they score 3 runs or less and that almost inevitably results in a lose.

I would recommend taking a quick look at the numbers over at Phillies Flow.

[Evan]

The poll results reflect more or less how I feel. The Phils have issues which everything except the bottom of the rotation. Kendrick and Moyer aren't fantastic but they've held their own and Blanton will probably come around. The Phils have to worry about the Braves and the Mets being better this year, the bullpen having serious holes, and the lineup has slumping (in large part due to injuries).

[Heather]

"Clearly, the FO isn't convinced that Brown is better than Ibanez going forward. If they were, they would replace him.

I trust that even this Front Office understands the concept of sunk costs."

You could be entirely correct, but on the flip side, there is a difference between UNDERSTANDING sunk cost and putting that understanding into action, especially when it will require folks admitting they made mistakes.

From my very limited perspective of top level managers in any organization, admitting they made mistakes is generally something to be avoided at all costs.

[clout]

As luck would have it, Moyer actually has a post-season track record that can be easily found.

In 41 IP, he is 3-3, 4.14 with a 1.14 WHIP, slightly better than you'd expect from a 4th starter.

But I wish we had four aces too.

[Heather]

"The daily news is talking like the Braves traded for Honus Wagner yesterday."

The only way that makes sense is if the Daily News is trying to get public opinion on the side of the Phillies making a big move now.

Either that or the baseball writer has no real understanding of baseball.

It seems like at best Gonzalez is a minor upgrade and at worst this is a trade that cripples the Braves at the SS position for a few years. (The latter is what I'm hoping for obviously.)

[Marley]

My vote: division rivals. Phils are a good team but there are only so many head-to-head opportunities.

As to a couple things mentioned in this thread:
I'd definitely pitch Moyer in a Game 3 assuming our bullpen is in order and Cholly has a quick hook. I think the chance of a 2007 NLDS/2008 WFS solid start is as likely as a 2008 NLDS/NLCS blowup. I have some faith that the mistakes of the past (perhaps leaving him in too long in critical situations) will not be repeated in the postseason. But I'd definitely take him over Kendrick or Blanton at this point (although Kyle's certainly making a case). Sure, you're sort of rolling the dice with Moyer, but he's the ultimate gamer and has the ability to shut down an offense when he's on. Excited to watch/listen to him pitch tonight and get this second half started!

Bill Baer's analysis of Madson as closer doesn't take into account the wild disparity between his DITHL in the 8th vs 9th inning.

[Heather]

"But I wish we had four aces too. "

You're still vulnerable to a straight flush though.

[MG]

"The daily news is talking like the Braves traded for Honus Wagner yesterday."

They traded for a corpse to start at SS?

[clout]

Heather: I believe that poster has mixed up the DN and the Inky. The DN simply has a wire story on the trade. Inky columnist Phil Sheridan has a column titled "Braves force Phillies hand on making a move."

My reaction was, "Why would Amaro feel he has to make a bad trade just to keep up with the Braves' bad trade?"

[Bubba]

I think Bobby Cox was Honus Wagner's manager in his rookie year.

[The Truth Injection]

The biggest roadblock is probably going to be the division rivals.

Age and injury happen. I know people want to point to the Phillies age as a predictor that we will get injured. However, that's not really they way injuries work. At any moment, any player could dive wrong or take a ball off the elbow and be gone.

That reason sort of fits with the lineup. If we get healthy we have a potent lineup. That has been seen.

I'm not as worried about the back end of the rotation as everyone else is. I think once Durbin is healthy you have the bullpen together as constructed coming into the year. I know people worry about Lidge but his season is not nearly as bad as people are presenting it. Madson in the 8th with Durbin, Contreras, and Romero ready to go in the 6th and 7th as matchup guys is pretty good. Baez and Herndon as mop up guys seeing limited action is going to be fine too.

Blanton has shown flashes of shaking himself out of his funk and Kendrick is pitching extremely well this season overall. If he struggles it's possible Happ is ready to contribute in August so they have a minor fallback plan.

That leaves division rivals. The Phillies usually go on a tear in the second half. We have to see how the Braves play this season half and if they come back to Earth some. The Mets are starting to show some cracks so hopefully that continues. The Braves have scuffled on the road and play 33 games in the second half away from home. The big trip will be September 17th thru the 26th when they play 3 in New York, 3 in Philly, and 3 in Washington. That could be the division right there.

[Bay Slugga]

Clout's right, I meant the Philadelphia Inquirer. I'll go back to trolling.

I'm actively hurting this blog

[Heather]

"The Mets are starting to show some cracks so hopefully that continues"

Is anyone else concerned with the Mets getting Beltran back? That's a pretty significant addition assuming he is healthy.

[CJ]

Heather: "From my very limited perspective of top level managers in any organization, admitting they made mistakes is generally something to be avoided at all costs."

Tell that to Geoff Jenkins.

It's amazing how quickly people forget actually history in order to hold on to a closely-held belief... as wrong as that belief may be.

[PhxPhilly]

Was not going to comment because I will just re-hash items already mentioned but I picked Lineup. If they score runs like the first month of the season nearly all the other issues go away.

Braves are good and will stay good. Not much the Phillies can do about that other than to play even better.

Nearly everyone who said age/injury was talking about Ibanez/Utley which to me is the same as the Lineup. So I picked lineup. Of course it is difficult to predict how injured players will recover. I do not know either but if that will be the blame for lack of runs that I agree age/injury will be the biggest roadblock.

Late inning relief is really just Lidge at this point right? Romero allows too many runners but seems to do quite well. Madson appears to be back as shutdown 8th inning guy. Contrares looks like he could close or be 8th. Lidge can still get K's but is an adventure. That is 4 quality late inning guys but not a stud closer. Agree that limiting Lidge to certain spots might help. Would we rather have Wilson (Burrell homer) or Broxton (Stairs homer)?

Who in the lineup is exceeding career norms? Polanco, probably but he is about a .300 hitter (with little else). Werth, Howard, Ruiz are similar but not excessive. Rollins, Victorino, Utley, Ibanez are below. The lineup just plays the second half at average and wins will be easier on everyone.

Halladay is awesome but he has always been awesome (in NL helps). Hamels appears back to #2 consistency. Moyer exceeding expectation (I thought he'd have an 7+ ERA) and Kendrick is winning pitcher battles. So hope they stay above career norms. Blanton and Happ suck (or are injured). Problem is Blanton is paid $8M and Happ is out of options. Are they really bullpen types? They hope is one recovers to career norm and other is DL/minors until needed.

[Bay Slugga]

If anyone wants a laugh, go look through the 2008 game 5 thread. I found this gem, "Lidge is at his best with runners on base."

Somewhere, Larry Anderson is having a heart attack.

[Bay Slugga]

Heather: I'm slightly concerned about the Mets getting Carlos Beltran back. He hasn't played an extended stretch of baseball in a long time though, so I have my doubts about his 2010 effectiveness.

[clout]

Surprised there's not more discussion here about the article on whether Moyer belongs in the HOF.

Depends on how much career totals impress you and what your definition of a Hall of Famer is. Does a guy who dominated baseball for a few brief years (Koufax) count for more than a guy who never dominated but rang up great totals and was good for many years (Niekro)?

John, Blyleven, Kaat, Morris and Mussina are mentioned and you need to use ERA+ to truly compare since the 1960s-70s were a pitching dominated era and the 1990s-2000s are the steroid era.

Career ERA+
Moyer 105
Morris 105
Mussina 123
Kaat 108
John 111

Moyer and Kaat played mostly for bad teams and Mussina almost exclusively for good teams, so that factors into ERA+.

[MG]

Thought before the season began that any team in the NL East that wins 90 or more games would take the division. Still think that but unfortunately that team is going to be the Braves instead of the Phils. Phils thought are going to make the playoffs for a 4th straight year as the WC instead though.

[Bubba]

What Moyer needs for HoF is a WS win at age 47.

[MG]

clout - Even if Moye pitches next year and he manages to add another 15 wins to this career total, I don't think he has a shot to make it with the baseball writers.

Now the Veteran's Committee is another matter especially if Moyer can continue to be historically mystifying the next 18 months or so.

[Jack]

If Moyer can pitch like this for the next couple of seasons, he would have a shot at the HOF based on career win totals and the uniqueness of his career.

Honestly, do I think he deserves to be in the HOF based on his career numbers and his talent, when compared to others who are inducted? No, probably not.

But do I think there should be a place in the HOF for incredibly unique players like him? Kind of, yeah. It's what makes the story of baseball great, and the HOF is nothing if not a place that should tell the story of baseball.

[Heather]

"Tell that to Geoff Jenkins.

It's amazing how quickly people forget actually history in order to hold on to a closely-held belief... as wrong as that belief may be."

Maybe you are entirely correct and the Phillies FO really believe Ibanez will turn around any day now.

Or maybe they believe Brown really isn't ready for the "show" and they have no other, better alternatives.

Or maybe eating 1 year and about 6 mil is a bit different than eating 1.5 years and about $13 mil (I don't have the exact figures in front of me, forgive me.)

I really don't know. I chose option #3 because it seemed by far the likeliest to me.

If you don't think so, can you hazard a guess as to why the Phils might be keeping Ibanez?

[Jack]

Clout: Moyer has played on winning teams in 15 of his 24 seasons at the MLB level, and that's not counting 2006, where he spent August and September with the Phillies, another winning team.

[bay_area_phan]

The Phillies waived Eaton & Jenkins in mid-contract, & they moved Moyer out of the starting rotation when they felt they could do better. So I'm confident that they know what a sunk cost is & that they're able to admit a mistake.

However, determining whether a cost is sunk, or a particular signing was a mistake, is not a black & white issue. And there is no question that, if the Phillies make this determination as to Ibanez, it's going to cause some real problems with salary flexibility next year. Faced with this reality, it is not really surprising that they would give Ibanez a pretty long rope before they deem him to be a sunk cost.

[Heather]

"But do I think there should be a place in the HOF for incredibly unique players like him? Kind of, yeah."

This.

Moyer's career also kind of makes me wonder, though, if there are some other pitchers out there that could be effective into their mid to late 40s if they made the correct adjustments.

I think a lot of pitchers get to the point where they're not blowing hitters away with their fastball anymore and hang it up.

What if they accepted they'd have to start getting hitters out with excellent location, guile, and smarts, and that while they'd never be as good as they used to, they could still be a serviceable pitcher?

Maybe there'd be a few more Jamie Moyers running around. What do you think?

[Jack]

Heather: It's a combination of #2 and #3. They aren't convinced that Brown will put up better production than Ibanez (either because they think Ibanez will turn it around or because they think Brown could struggle mightily).

If that's the case, then you keep your high-paid player out there, because you want to give him every opportunity to turn it around and provide at least some value for what you're paying him.

[BV2ST]

Durbin activated, Figgy DFA'd, Bastardo optioned.

[clout]

Bubba, MG, Jack: All excellent points.

BTW, post-season does have an inordinate (and IMHO exaggerated) impact on HOF membership. A Phil Rizzuto type player on the Royals has no shot. On the Yankees in 6 WS, different story.

Just noticed I forgot Blyleven's ERA+ in the above post: 118.

That's almost as good as Moose, who played almost exclusively for winning teams, while Bert played almost exclusively for bad teams.

I'd vote Bert in, but not Moose.

[Meyer]

Regardless of the outcome of the vote I hope the Phillies pick up some bottom of the rotation help as they have the past four years.

[Marley]

But do I think there should be a place in the HOF for incredibly unique players like him? Kind of, yeah. It's what makes the story of baseball great, and the HOF is nothing if not a place that should tell the story of baseball.

Great point, Jack, I agree 100%. If the Hall of Fame is just about stats, a computer could pick the deserving members. The amazing story of Jamie Moyer deserves to be told, and the HOF is the place in which to tell it.

[Jack]

Clout: I'd vote yes to Blyleven and Mussina. You mention Mussina is helped by playing on good teams, but that also means he has a whole wealth of playoff numbers to help him.

Career in the playoffs: 7-8, 3.42 ERA. 1.10 WHIP and a 4.39 K/BB ratio in 139 IP. That's almost 2/3 of an extra season with a 3.42 ERA and great peripheral numbers. That's a lot of extra value he provided to his teams.

I don't count the lack of postseason numbers against guys like Blyleven, but if they're good, I do count them towards the value of a guy like Mussina. Same thing for Schilling--it would be impossible to evaluate his HOF candidacy without noting how much value he provided in postseason, where it matters most.

[GBrettfan]

Yay for Durbin being activated!

[NEPP]

****The amazing story of Jamie Moyer deserves to be told, and the HOF is the place in which to tell it.****

Moyer is guaranteed a spot in the HoF...he'll likely easily make it into the Mariners Hall of Fame and he's probably even got an okay shot at the Phillies Wall of Fame.

[clout]

Jack: Agree about post-season. Moose probably should be in. My anti-Yankee bias was showing.

[NEPP]

Moose is borderline but he'll likely make it in eventually. I wouldn't be upset if he did even if he's clearly not a inner-circle type guy.

[Jack]

Clout: I also had a post written about how Mussina lost probably 10 wins due to the strike taking away parts of 1994 and 1995, but realized Blyleven lost a good amount of time in 1981 as well.

[Marley]

I'll second that yay for Durbin. Underappreciated but vital cog in this team's success over the past few years.

[clout]

Regarding uniqueness, the only pitchers I can think of who were successful in their late 40s, besides Moyer, are Satchel Paige, Hoyt Wilhelm and Phil Niekro. All are in the HOF. Are there any others?

[rk]

Clout: I think you definitely have me with Floyd at least on the stats. And since I am a believer in stats I am going to have to take it back.
BUT
I still don't like Floyd I heard Ron Darling, who I do think is very good, he saw the problems with Utley this year and visually showed it on TV. I saw his analysis of Floyd's pitching and he predicted all the problems Floyd would have.
Does it mean Floyd is stuck in the past? No. But he is not the answer.
In any event as I posted earlier the Phils stick by their players regardless of performance. And that post was to remind those who supported dumping Ibanez (and paying his salary) that the last time we did this with the ChiSox we didn’t get much in return.

[CJ]

Is this the first time all season that our bullpen has been complete?

Closer: Lidge
Setup: Madson
Secondary setup: Contreras
LH specialist: Romero
Additional high-leverage reliever: Durbin
Additional mid-leverage reliever: Baez
Additional low-leverage reliever: Herndon

I think this bullpen could be pretty good... especially considering it is as rested as any bullpen in baseball.

[bay_area_phan]

During the forgettable discussion about the significance of wins, I rhetorically asked if Kevin Brown is a Hall of Famer. He won 211 games & had a career ERA+ of 127, which is better than a lot of Hall of Famers. By comparison, Curt Schilling won 216 games and had an ERA+ of 128. But Brown stands almost no chance of making the HOF because he spent most of his career pitching for mediocre Dodger & Ranger teams. On the other hand, Schilling will probably get in on the first ballot because of his post-season heroics.

[Chris in VT]

CJ - Don't forget that Jenkins and Eaton were under a different GM. Pat Gillick can admit a mistake and not have people calling for his head. Amaro? I'm not so sure. Not to mention they have very different personalities, and Amaro tends to be defensive and combative, from what I've seen in interviews. People like that tend to have a hard time admitting mistakes.

[philwynk]

"Maybe there'd be a few more Jamie Moyers running around. What do you think?"

Moyer is reputed to have an Iron Man work ethic. This takes immense self-discipline, particularly into one's 40s when the body is slowing down dramatically.

I don't think it's so much about making pitching adjustments as it is just, plain, hard work. Lots and lots of it. For Moyer to be doing what he's doing at his age is truly extraordinary, even among professional athletes.

I doubt that many human beings have the internal discipline to do what Moyer's done, which is why he's unique, and deserves credit.

[Chris in VT]

rk - The Phils dumped Thome and his salary for Aaron Rowand and Gio Gonzalez.

Floyd and Gonzalez went to the ChiSox for Freddy Garcia.

So the last time the Phils dumped an aging player and ate most of his salary it actually worked out quite well. (Not that I think we'd get much of anything of value in return for Ibanez at this point)

[PhillyJoe]

I don't think it has anything to do with their personalities its different expectations....

Pat Gillick had to be better than Ed Wade

Amaro has to win a world series.

[awh]

WFC whether Blyleven and Mussina make the HOF. :)

Heather, I've been mentioning Beltran's return on this site for weeks. You are the only other poster to do so.

If he comes back at his best he could tip the division in the Mets favor.

The real question is how good, really, are the Mets and Braves?

If the Braves continue to play .661 ball, no one catches them, because they'll win 101 games. The Phils would have to go 54 -21 in their last 75 just to tie. Not impossible, but...

The Mets have played .611 ball in June and July. If they continue they'll finish with 93 wins. The Phillies would have to go 46 - 29 to tie them.

The Phils can help themselves a lot because they still have 6 against ATL and 12 against the Mets.

But they have to win head-to-head, and so far they are 15 - 17 in the NL East. Reverse that record and they'd only be 2-1/2 behind, well within striking distance.

[GBrettfan]

Most ballplayers don't even want to be like Jamie Moyer, it seems to me. I'm sure i've heard various Phillies asked about it and reply they intend to be fishing or whatever at Moyer's age.

Yes, it does take work, discipline, desire. I would like to see Jamie acknowledged for that. And there's a good chance he will be, at least for the proverbial 15 minutes. He won't be remembered a generation from now by the average fan.

[Bubba]

I think Moyer personifies the shift in attitude from the old "We're not athletes, we're ballplayers" mindset in MLB.
I wonder if we will see more pitchers in the coming years go later into their 40's with their effectiveness still high enough to contribute at a big league level.
I can picture some guys going for a long time if they stay injury free.
If I remember this off season was Jamie's first major career injury.

[clout]

CJ: What if Lidge sucks every third appearance?

[clout]

BAP: Correct me if I'm wrong, but wasn't Brown identified as a steroid user?

[clout]

Chris in VT: "So the last time the Phils dumped an aging player and ate most of his salary it actually worked out quite well."

Except for the part where we gave away the most valuable piece and got nothing for it and only had one good season from the other guy (while the Sox got 3 from their guy as the Phillies paid his salary), yeah. Great trade.

[bay_area_phan]

clout: Right. That's the 2nd time I've forgotten that point in the last 3 days. Even before the steroids relevation, however, it seems to me that no one ever really regarded Kevin Brown as a Hall of Fame caliber pitcher.

[Bonehead]

clout - If the Phils could strike a deal for Raul that is similar to Thome's (i.e., pay half the salary, acquire a productive player), do you think they would do it?

[Chris in VT]

clout - Thome for Rowand worked out just fine for the Phils. They had to open up a spot for Howard, and everyone knew it. If the Phils made a trade anywhere near that good of Ibanez (to open up a spot for Brown)I'd be jumping for joy.

Otherwise he's just Raul "Sunk Costs" Ibanez.

[clout]

Bonehead: If you think Ibanez's career is essentially over and what he's produced this year is what you'll continue to get, that would definitely be the way to go.

[Hugh Mulcahy]

All this talk about Moyer's prospects for hte Hall, or his potential as a post-season starter are just bad ju-ju. At his age, you just don't think that far ahead. Besides, we already had the first conversation. Just because it's a slow day at the Inquirer sports desk doesn't mean we should rehash it. Still, I liked clout's comparison to other ancient hurlers but, they're not favorable comparisons:

1) Paige is in the Hall based on performance in the Negro Leagues
2) Niekro won 300+ and was an anchor of the Braves' otherwise suspect rotation for most of hte 70s.
3) Wilhelm was a reliever who owned the record for appearances when he was elected.

[Meyer]

Jamie hasn't even started his knuckeball career. He could outplay his nays.

[Bedrosian's Beard]

Hugh: Nicely done, say we shouldn't discuss it, then dive right into the conversation. Well played.

[Hugh Mulcahy]

Beard - it's a natural skill, really.

[Jack]

If we could get a player as productive as Rowand for Ibanez by only paying half his salary, that would be an absolute steal for Amaro.

However, it's likely we wouldn't get anything of value for Ibanez, even paying half his deal.

The main difference is that Thome, in December of 2005, was a far more productive player than Ibanez is right now.

[Bonehead]

Yes, clout, unfortunately I do think that Raul will not bounce back.

Even if his fall off is attributable to his injury, at age 38-39, I don't think he can be expected heal, then revert to OPS+ of 115-ish.

[Jack]

What injury are we attributing to Ibanez? He's been healthy this entire year, hasn't he?

Or is this one of those phantom injuries like we always conjure up for Utley to explain what is simply bad performance?

[Bedrosian's Beard]

I would say it's reasonable to say Ibanez's injury last year/post season surgery, coupled with his age, helped lead to his diminished bat speed.

[limoguy]

I have no idea what they will do but I expect to see Ibáñez playing left field for the Phillies in the great majority of the games for at least the rest of this season.