Would Phillies revisit the half-season plan for Pops?

The Phillies pushed Jamie Moyer into semi-retirement a year ago with the addition of Pedro Martinez, a change that brought out the best in their pitching staff and extended Moyer’s battery life (until he ruptured his groin). Would they do it again? (AP Photo)

In yesterday's poll, the back end of the rotation was the least of readers' concerns, earning just six percent of the vote among the top five second-half roadblocks. But one wonders if this was the type of outing Phillies GM Ruben Amaro has in mind when he sends his men to scout starting pitching and keeps giving Pedro’s agent a courtesy call. That's not to say that Moyer hasn't been among the season's best achievers, because he has. But he's part of a group that has logged the most innings by a rotation in all of baseball, and at 47, he’s pitching now in the most brutal of months. Last night Moyer just couldn’t locate; he allowed six runs on five hits, including two long homers, and quite tellingly, two hit batsmen when he was ahead in the count. He was gone after three innings, making it two stinkers in a row. In his previous start against the Braves, the wheels came off in a hurry in a six-run sixth.

In his defense, his unsightly 4.88 ERA is inflated by about a half dozen games or even innings like this. Still, there was something to be said about the way the rotation worked a year ago. The Phillies brought in a fresh-bodied Pedro and moved Moyer into a sixth starter role, assigned to double-headers, emergency starts, rain delays and routs, and it seemed to extend Moyer's season while giving the team a good boost.

Readers: “Werth has just been abysmal. Both he and Vic are the two main people actively hurting this offense. They ended up scoring 6 runs (mainly thanks to Howard), but it was a pretty rough night at the plate for most of the team.” – Iceman

“I have to keep reminding myself that, except for his doubles (which are way up) and homeruns (which are significantly down), Werth's overall numbers are almost exactly the same as last year. I also keep having to remind myself that he hasn't really been slumping since April; he actually had a big June. I think the reason it seems like he has been slumping forever is because he's hitting an astonishingly bad .169 with RISP, and he has exactly 2 RBIs in his last 17 games.” – bay_area_phan

Comments

[Heather]

On another note, what do you all think the chances are that the Phillies actually deal Werth before the trade deadline?

Would it depend a lot on the package, or do you think he's not going anywhere?

[CJ]

Here's what Keith Law wrote about JC Ramirez before the season:

Juan Ramirez, RHP, Philadelphia: Ramirez was prospect No. 101 this year. I wrote up one more player than I needed for the rankings, and he was the guy I cut to make the final 100. Ramirez came to the Phillies from the Mariners in the Cliff Lee trade, in which the Phillies added three prospects to replace the three they dealt to Toronto for Roy Halladay. Ramirez is slightly ahead of Phillippe Aumont -- who was also involved in that trade -- and has a better chance to work as a starter, whereas the Mariners already felt that Aumont's future was in the bullpen. Ramirez has No. 2 starter stuff if he shows he can stay in the rotation; his fastball is up to 96 mph and he'll sit 91-94 with some glove-side run, and he shows an above-average slider at 77-80 with a very sharp break. His changeup is rudimentary, and he likes to go to the slider in changeup situations. So far he hasn't missed as many bats as a guy with his raw stuff should miss, with most of that trouble coming from left-handed hitters. He's very skinny, listed at 6-foot-3, 175 pounds, and his arm slot is just below three-quarters, both of which would point toward a relief role. In his favor, he was just 20 in 2009, pitching in a great hitters' park in High Desert, and should get to move to a saner environment in Reading in 2010 to show whether he projects as more than just a very good reliever.

[phlipper]

"Also, we should stop acting like Ibanez just had a bad first month and that since then he's been adequate"

Who said that, Jack? I must have missed it.

[bay_area_phan]

fljerry: If a hot prospect gets called up, stinks it up, & never turns into a good player, how would we ever know that the premature call-up was what ruined him -- as opposed to his just not being able to hit big league pitching?

[Sophist]

Jack, when's the last time anyone acted like that? I think it was a little after May 9th.

[CJ]

Since Ibanez's low point on April 18th, his line is:
258/333/422 in 74 games (69 starts)

His BAbip during that time is .285.

These numbers are presented without comment and are not meant to support a decision on his future either way.

[dlhunter]

Shane got paid this past offseason.

/Just sayin'

[Heather]

"fljerry: If a hot prospect gets called up, stinks it up, & never turns into a good player, how would we ever know that the premature call-up was what ruined him -- as opposed to his just not being able to hit big league pitching?"

The question that I'm asking though, is if we called Brown up now, would it actually be premature? It's not like we're calling him up from high A.

What more does he need to do or prove?

[limoguy]

They haven't traded Werth and called Domonic Brown up yet?

I've got to think this will happen before July 31.

Werth needs a change of scenery something bad and Brown is ripe.

[donc]

"huhg is dead on about ibanez" I fountained coke on my keyboard. Brilliant

[Sophist]

Trading Lee and Werth from a 2x, reigning Pennant team in the same year (while still in the prime years for the remaining core players) would be a ballsy and fascinating move. I wouldn't put it past Amaro to do something like that.

[Heather]

BTW, am I the only one who reads Amaro's declaration that the Phils aren't pursuing pitching as, "We desperately need pitching and I am totally willing to trade my best corner outfielder to get it"?

[Heather]

"Trading Lee and Werth from a 2x, reigning Pennant team in the same year (while still in the prime years for the remaining core players) would be a ballsy and fascinating move. I wouldn't put it past Amaro to do something like that. "

At that point, the entire city of Philadelphia should write an open letter to Pat Gillick begging him to come back.

[Jack]

All I know is that the Phillies need to win this game today.

Anyone seen a starting lineup?

[clout]

CJ: "I was a big fan of JC Ramirez when the trade went down and, in fact, I said I thought he'd end up being the biggest part of the deal."

Go back to the day of the trade and see who touted Ramirez first.

[WillyFromPhilly]

The Phils are still mis-identifying the main problem: lack of hitting.

[Marley]

In Moyer's defense (as usual):

Prior to the 6th inning of the 7/7 Braves game, he had given up 8 runs (7 earned, although the other one was on his own throwing error) in his last 4+ games (34 innings) for a 1.85 ERA. His peripherals were outstanding. Then he got torched in the aforementioned 6th and had to wait 8 days for his next start, which for an older* player like Jamie, SEEMS like a good idea (Pops gets an extended rest!), but since he's a (the?) get-in-the-groove control pitcher, he probably would have preferred the usual 5. One bad inning and one bad start on unusually long rest strike me as poor indicators of future performance when you consider how well he's pitched this year (again looking at the peripherals like K/BB & WHIP, & also through my eyes). The HRs are a problem, but my bet would be that he finds his groove again on regular rest.

Hope Joe gets it going tonight. Would be really nice if he rounds into form.

[bullit]

i don't know how ruben could have watched raul's ab to lead off the 6th and, with 2 on, to end the 7th without thinking of dom.

[phlipper]

Marley - are you suggesting that fans not panic in their evaluation of a player's performance?

Interesting.

[phlipper]

"Would be really nice if he rounds into form."

Nice. Worthy of Old Phan.

[GBrettfan]

I'm glad I ended up missing almost the entire game last night. Sounds like there were two bright spots: Howard hitting 2 HRs is a good sign, and Durbin pitching a scoreless inning his first night back.

Jamie owned up to his part in the debacle:

"That's not a good way to set a tone to start the second half, in my opinion," said Moyer. "And I'll wear it. That's my responsibility. I can't look at anybody else in this clubhouse except myself."

But it killed me to learn that, were it not for the BP, the Phils would have tied the game up. It sounds like the offense still leaves something to be desired, too, absent Howard? The good news being that a hot, HR-hitting Howard can carry a team at times. Troubling that Moyer's had two consecutive rough outings. This was worse. Don't think it's a sign of anything yet, but it could become one if the trend continues.

Waiting for all cylinders to fire. Or resigning myself to a bad season. I think I read NEPP last night said we should chase the WC. I think the team should aim higher than that, chase the division - Maybe then, they'll succeed well enough to secure the WC. But yeah, for fans, realistically, the WC is the best we can expect - and it's good enough, definitely. But games like last night aren't going to get us anywhere in October, except rooting for another team.

[fljerry]

Heather read where Amaro said hes not going for starting pitching. It would take lots of Balls to try and get another starting pitcher when he let the best available pitcher go. Probably go for relievers.

[GBrettfan]

And what's Baez's success rate? Does he succeed in holding the other team scoreless half of his outings? 2/3 of the time? Whatever it is, it doesn't seem good enough, but I always wonder if that's because the bad outings make a more indelible impression than the good - and therefore, skew my perception of a reliever's effectiveness.

Wondering how often Contreras is successful these days, too.

[bay_area_phan]

Not only do they have to win today, but Blanton absolutely has to pitch a decent game. For one thing, they aren't likely to slug their way to victory against Ted Lilly; the only way they'll win is with good pitching. And, in the longer term, Blanton simply has to show some signs of life. You can't go through the season with a staring pitcher that has a 6+ ERA.

[GBrettfan]

Absolutely right, BAP.

[jason.tp]

bap: Lily has actually given up 14 ER in his last 10IP.

[baxter]

This argument is fun and all, but Domonic Brown is a right-fielder, not a left-fielder. Before even entertaining the notion of him replacing Ibanez, he should probably get some experience at that position. From all accounts, his glove is holding him back right now, not his bat. I agree that he should see some time in LF, but you certainly won't see him starting there in Philly before he does in LV. They could shift Werth and/or Vic around, but I remember both only playing RF/CF. I also think there is a bit of a Halladay/Lee situation going on with Brown/Werth: they don't want fans to get excited about having both in the outfield and lineup. If Brown saw time in LF, you'd hear more complaints along that line.

[Old Phan]

"Blanton absolutely has to pitch a decent game."

Even me, Mr. Positivity, isn't brimming with confidence that this will happen. Prove me wrong, Glazed Donut Joe.

[Control13]

I'm with the people who want to bring up Brown and play him. The kid has kicked butt at double and triple A. Why coddle him? Ibanez has been in decline for a full year now. He doesn't remotely look like the same player from 1st half '09. His bat looks slow, and he never hits up the middle or to the opposite field. As someone said, it's getting late early, now's the time to make a move if they want to win. If Brown is over-matched, what has been lost? He's young and will bounce back. The Phils will not make the playoffs without some changes in short order.

[bay_area_phan]

jason: Lilly's an excellent pitcher and, if anything, those 2 bad starts only mean that he's due to pitch a 2-hit shutout. But, given the way the Phillies have hit lately, it will probably be a 1-hit shutout.

[baxter]

Its nice to see Ramirez finally string a few impressive starts together, because he's been mediocre so far this season.

[dlhunter]

Joe Blanton's one more lousy start and ice cream orgy away from a spending his winter rehabbing with Wilford Brimley.

[Old Phan]

I don't know if bringing up Brown "early" would have a negative effect on him or not, but do you want him to play LF when his natural position is RF? That sounds risky.

[Old Phan]

His next start will be on a sundae.

[dlhunter]

Wayooh!

[EastFallowfield]

Werth's played in 201 games in left field, 400 some in center, and under 100 in center.

[EastFallowfield]

400 some in right, I should have typed.

[bay_area_phan]

Lineup:

Rollins
Vic
Werth
Howard
Francisco
Ransom
Ruiz
Valdez
Blanton

Makes sense, given that the Rollins-Vic configuration has been working so well at the top of the order.

[Heather]

"I don't know if bringing up Brown "early" would have a negative effect on him or not, but do you want him to play LF when his natural position is RF? That sounds risky."

I could be way way off here (and say so if I am) but I thought LF was usually the easiest outfield position to play...therefore, if his natural position is RF, wouldn't LF be a reasonably easy transition?

Kind of like a SS playing 2nd base. Not his natural position, and maybe a bit of a learning curve, but in some aspects a bit easier as well.

[Heather]

"Makes sense, given that the Rollins-Vic configuration has been working so well at the top of the order."

Hopefully this is the reverse jinx, and they combine to go 7 for 8, with 4 XBH.

[CJ]

clout: "Go back to the day of the trade and see who touted Ramirez first."

Hmmmm... doing some research. Bob Walk was first to mention Ramirez, but he simply cut-and-pasted a Keith Law breakdown.

I then mentioned Ramirez saying, "The Phils are apparently also getting Mariners pitching prospect Juan Ramirez in the deal, which makes it a little more palatable. That gives us the M's top two pitching prospects and an OF prospect that the Phils feel is comparable to Taylor (albeit with different skill sets).

With a night to sleep on it, I'm not as disappointed, particularly if Ramirez is in the deal. Nonetheless, it's a big let down."

On the next thread, you weigh in and say, "Ramirez, also 21, throws harder than Aumont, having been clocked at 97 mph. He too is struggling to command his secondary pitches, but his slider is said to be a potential plus pitch. Because he's a starter, his numbers were worse than Aumont's at hitter-happy High Desert, but his H/A split showed solid road numbers. I think his ceiling and value is higher than any of the 3, particularly if he can remain as a starter. Can't wait to see him in a full season at Reading."

And you note you liked Ramirez best in the deal.

So you weighed in later, but were much stronger in your belief that Ramirez was the best of the bunch. You also later wrote, "Keith Law, Phuture Phillies, TTI's Seattle source and I all agree that Ramirez is the best prospect the Phillies are getting. That should end all debate on the matter."

Somehow, the debate didn't end. Imagine that.

[Sophist]

BAP - who in the world in that lineup would you put 1-2? I mean, besides Ruiz.

[bay_area_phan]

Heather: Shhh! You know how you're not supposed to say anything about a no-hitter in progress? Well, you're also not supposed to say anything about trying to bring on the reverse Beerleaguer jinx. If the reverse jinx thinks it's being manipulated, it doesn't work.

[donc]

"I could be way way off here (and say so if I am)....."

My official nomination for the funniest thing ever written on this sight. I think I need oxygen.

[Old Phan]

I am less than thrilled with the idea of Werth in CF. If he's played LF, fine. Stick him there if Brown is in RF.

[bay_area_phan]

sophist: Actually, I'd bat Werth first and Ruiz second. Against a left-handed starter, I might well bat Victorino third.

[baxter]

If the "easier position" argument didn't fly here with Polanco, who was a gold glove savvy vet with over a hundred games experience at the easier position, it certainly won't with the minor leaguer who can't read fly balls.

[bay_area_phan]

"Somehow, the debate didn't end."

Not only didn't it end; it sprung tributaries. Now that we all think Ramirez is the best of the 3 prospects, we're arguing over who was the first to declare him the best of the 3 prospects.

[dlhunter]

Reporter: So, Joe, what type of diabetes do you have?

Joe Blanton: Type?

Reporter: Yeah, what flavor is it?

Joe Blanton: You mean there are different flavors?

Reporter: I'm sorry, that was a bit insensitive. You know type I, type II, or whatever variety, you know what I mean.

Joe Blanton: Oh....

Reporter: Yes.

Joe Blanton: Strawberry. But sometimes Chocolate.

[CJ]

No mention of the fact that Raul Ibanez is sitting against a LHP today?

None?

[Heather]

BAP: Gotcha. Ix-nay on the inx-jay.

[GBrettfan]

I would put Ruiz or Werth - since he's not hitting with RISP anyway - at #2 in the batting order. Maybe Francisco if I sensed it was a hitting day for him, but only then. Move Vic down where, as Mitch Williams always says, he can be more of a free swinger.

[phlipper]

"No mention of the fact that Raul Ibanez is sitting against a LHP today?"

Must have been due to your post, cj.

Might I suggest you also write a post about your trade suggestions - before they stop doing everything you say?

[passing by]

jokes about diabetes are hilarious

[fljerry]

Heather agree with you left field is easier to play and the right fielder has the better arm. We know Brown has an excellent arm so right field has to be his. If not wasting his arm.

[bay_area_phan]

Cholly has quietly been siting Raul against tough left-handers for at least a few weeks now. He did recently start Ibanez against Maloney, a fringe major leaguer (who nonetheless looked like Steve Carlton against us). But against a guy like Lilly, starting Francisco over Ibanez at this point is a no-brainer.

[dlhunter]

jokes about diabetes are hilarious

Well, I wouldn't go that far.

[Old Phan]

A ukulele is easier to play than a sitar but that doesn't mean a master sitar player can pick up a Uke and sound like an expert.
Ok, that was way too arcane. Point is, you don't bring a up a guy and stick him in a position he has never played unless it is an emergency (like the time Cookie Rojas pitched an inning because there were no pitchers left in the bullpen)

[Old Phan]

Yo, new thing