Mail: No statistical separation between J-Roll, Valdez

Longtime reader, George S., makes a keen observation about Philadelphia's middle infielders.

"In response to a lot of Jimmy Rollins love on Beerleaguer the other day, here are two batting lines. The first is our former MVP Gold Glove All-Star shortstop. The second is an end-of-the-bench journeyman infielder thrown into the starting lineup by injuries. Rollins has Wilson Valdez beat on the OBP, getting more walks, but other than that, he should be embarrassed. Valdez is giving nothing away to JRoll in terms of defense either from what I have seen.

      PA     AB     R      H   2B   3B  HR  RBI  BB  K    BA    SLG  OPS
1    253    218    27    54    11    2    4    25    32  23   248    372    715
2    264    248    28    63    10    3    4    26    9    33   254    367    650

"Last night Carlos Ruiz won the game with a 2-run double in the bottom of the 9th inning. I don't know if you watched the game, but if you did, did you happen to notice that Greg Dobbs was in the on deck circle when Ruiz won it? CM was going to have Dobbs bat for Valdez? I have to be mistaken here, but if not, what possible rationale could CM have thrown out there in that situation? Dobbs 4-40 as a PH, and Valdez with two hits in the game already." - George

Comments

[Dukes]

R. Billingsly: I think Charlie doesn't want to mess with his (Ruiz) swing with the knuckleballer going. That would be my guess.

[tom]

You know, I had thought it was worse without Ruiz but had forgotten how they got bizarrely good production from whatshisface. Sandoval? He wore number 4? I digress.

[R.Billingsly]

Dukes: That's fine. I wasn't necessarily attacking you (because you are not the only who thinks that way, and you are certainly entitled to your opinion). It is just a pet peeve of mine when people say that if a player did X, Y, Z they'd be that much better. It's impossible to know if they have tried to do X, Y, Z or they used to do X, Y, Z and changed to their current style. We can't know. That's the gripe I have.

And I have a soft spot for J-Roll. I protect him like he was one of my children ("You must be mistaken. My son would NEVER do anything like that."), so I'm probably the wrong person to be objective.

[Sophist]

" If we're going to come up with excuses to explain away his .250 average over a period of 1,000 PAs (as so many are doing)..."

Do you understand how frustrating it is spending time making nuanced, statistically based arguments and have someone call it an excuse? Do you realize that a .255/.350 hitter with can steal 30 bases and hit 35+ 2B and 15+ HR is actually a very, very good leadoff hitter?

I'm sorry to be a jerk, but after the deal with many brushing aside the Hamels and Ibanez arguments (that were right!), it's very frustrating to have someone call it an "excuse" without addressing it on its merits.

[R.Billingsly]

Dukes: Let's hope so.

[curt]

"Watching the post-game celebration for the 50th time..."

It may be time to maybe mow the lawn, or give porn a try...

[Dave]

Rollins is making $8.5M this season. Valdez in making less than $1M.

So we are paying $7M+ for 60pts of OBP? Seems to me Rollins is not performing up to his contract this year.

According to fangraphs Jimmy has been worth $7.4 mil so far this year. He's only had 253 PA this year, and projected to have 166 more. So if he continues at the same production he'll be worth $12.25 mil. Outperforming his contract.

Valdez has been worth $1.8 mil this year, so yeah he too is outperforming his salary.

Both are good things. And I think we can expect JRoll to perform better than he has, making his contract even more of a bargain.

[HammRadio]

@bap -- you are currently seeing the Rollins who hits .280. Because you ignore the fact that after his injury he struggled to come back hitting .179 in his first 25 games back from his second dl stint.

You have this severe problem of looking at the scoreboard and say "this guy is hitting .250 and has been for 2 years" without any context. I know that because you completely ignored that he was Hitting WELL BELOW 200 during that stretch and kept mentioning (see he's a .250 hitter and has been for 2 years).

Since his bottoming out on jul 20, in the last 18 games he's hitting .289/.379/.355/.735 And some of that comes from singles bleeding through with a little high babip during that stretch. But you could argue he was a little unlucky during the bad stretch...

Now those slugging numbers are way down and probably enhances your "Rollins sucks meme" and maybe you are right. But to ignore injury and say this is a pattern. Is simply silly.

Is he the .179 hitter? or the .289 hitter?

And which is he going to be for the rest of the season??? From today until the end of the season, I would suspect he will be closer to the .289 hitter than the .179 he had coming of the DL.

The injury arguments are valid when the context of extensions and what you expect Rollins will be able to give you in games played etc etc.

Most of us saw the kind of start Rollins had and the recent return to health and see what kind of player Rollins is at this stage in his career. Some people choose not to see it.

Quick Aside: re his injury... One thing i haven't heard in JROLL's injury talk, is not his lost step (which he does seem slower out of the box (not when he has a full head of steam going first to 3rd or 2nd to home) as you would expect that the calf is important for "explosiveness". But his arm seems off. He has had more than a few balls fall short or be lower than you expect on ROUTINE plays, probably because he's not getting the full plant he usually does.

[Ollie Brown]

Wouldn't it make more sense to play Schneider on Sunday, the day game after the Saturday night game? That said, Schneider did hit the Dickster pretty well last week....

[Dukes]

Ollie - Sunday is an ESPN night game.

[Dukes]

Zo Twitter: Manuel said Carlos Ruiz has a sore right quad, but said he should be OK. Wanted to give him a break.

[phlipper]

probably because he's not getting the full plant he usually does. To my eye, he hasn't been putting as much "mustard" on the ball as usual. Although he does still seem to play the game with a lot of relish. And he can still ketchup with a lot of shallow fly balls.

Old Phan, I assume that you have no beef with that post?

[bay_area_phan]

Hamm: I look at the bottom line number because what a guy has done over his last 1,000 PAs is a better predictor of future performance that what he has done over the last 18 games. It's really that simple.

Maybe you'll prove right that he just hasn't been healthy & he'll pick it up for the rest of the year. But that explanation would resonate more with me were it not for the fact that his overall numbers look remarkably similar to the numbers he posted last year, when he wasn't injured. But I sure hope you're right.

[CJ]

Another tweet:
Chooch said he expects to be able to play tomorrow. #phillies

[ftljohn]

Daily News Live, of course, leads off with the meaningless Eagles-Jaguars preseason game instead of talking about one of the more remarkable come from behind wins in recent Phillies history.

Thanks God it's football season. I know i'm excited...

[krukker]

Did Chooch hurt himself doing that dance off of second base after the GW hit? I get nervous during a celebration with all the bizarre injuries lately.

[EastFallowfield]

Mets will call up Pat Misch to start tomorrow.

[EastFallowfield]

And KRod will be available tomorrow, pending any further arrests.

[Hugh Mulcahy]

Pet peeve: "If you wanna express concern about the Phillies investments, talk about how Halladay is on pace to throw like 250 innings, possibly even 300 if they're involved in October. That's a guaranteed 20 million dollar per season investment you're risking every useless complete game he finishes."

Exactly how many useless complete games has Halladay finished this year? Innings are a function of effectiveness. It's a good thing. I'm not advocating throwing the guy 9 innings and 140 pitches in a blowout just because he's got a shutout but, if the game's not decided, and he's your best option to keep the other team off hte score board, do you go to Durbin or Madson or Lidge in hte 8th or 9th simply to save 15 pitches on ole Hoss's arm for next year?

This and "fangraphs says that's worth $15 million" - when the GMs in the league use fangraphs values to negotiate salaries, this will have meaning to me.

Sorry - I think it's beer thirty. That's quitting time.

[CJ]

Another tweet:
Charlie doesn't seem to think Howard will be ready on Tuesday, the day he can come off the DL. #phillies

[phlipper]

Sorry - I think it's beer thirty. That's quitting time.

Hugh - I think your clock is about an hour slow.

[krukker]

Sorry if this was posted already, but Good Day had a phone interview this morning with Hex Kid and his brothers and the hot chick (the babysitter). The male host is particularly excited when talking about her. A must see!

Link: here.

[Sophist]

Rollins BA was down last year because his batting average on line drives was down. This is out of his control. Nearly 100 points below career norms.

No player in baseball history has been slightly unlucky one year and then caught an injury bug the next.

[GTown_Dave]

The problem isn't Rollins in '10, the problem is finding a replacement for Rollins down the line (a line which is becoming shorter by the day). Valdez has exceeded expectations, but it's important to remember (a) how low expectations for ol' Wilson were to begin w/ & (b) how pitiful he was when he first stepped in.

In the meantime, the Phillies might best utilize J-Roll's diminished (whether due to age or injury or both) skills at the plate by removing him from the leadoff spot permanently. In my opinion this is a move that ought to have happened in Spring Training, but so be it. Rollins has always been too impatient & streaky to handle the position correctly, & his inability to beat out infield hits & be a regular base-stealing threat has only exacerbated the issue.

Also, if Charlie was seriously gonna PH Dobbs for Valdez last night, he's certifiable. You'd think "The Gut" would tell Charlie that allowing a capable RH batter to bat vs. a struggling RHP is more intelligent than subbing in a LH batter who has sucked out loud as a PH & can't field.

[Dukes]

krukker: the best part of that is when the male host asks the babysitter if he can come over. of course he didn't quite mean it that way, but it sure was funny.

[Sophist]

Should also note that Rollins doubles and triples as a percentage of his total AB was virtually identical last year to his numbers from 2006-2008, so the BA drop was all singles.

Just compare 06 and 09

689 AB: 191 hits (112 singles) - 45 doubles 9 triples 25 HR - 86/119 on line drives
672 AB: 168 hits (99 singles) - 43 doubles 5 triples 21 HR - 75/117 on line drives

One year is the heart of his peak, the other he's totally in decline.

[Sophist]

But who am I kidding? It's so much easier to just say "He's a .250. He's a .250 hitter" and ignore all context and nuance. That's what we're here for, isn't it?

I mean, ignoring these things has such a good track record around here.

[Andy]

They say she's the "baby sitter," but they mean, really, "au pair."

That's my fanta...err: story, and I'm sticking with it.

[Morty]

J Roll remains the heart and soul of this team, and, no, you can't measure that stat.

[CJ]

Sophist: I hear you. You speak way too much sense for some people on here. Wet Blankets™ don't let facts get in the way of a good rant. The truth is that Raul Ibanez is washed up, Cole Hamels is the team's biggest problem and Jimmy Rollins is one step from a nursing home. That is the truth. Your facts are irrelevant.

[Sophist]

Considering 1/4 of Rollins career LD hits have been doubles, normalizing 09 for his career BAbip on LD has Rollins batting about .265/.360/.440.

[aksmith]

Isn't it about time somebody pointed out that Dobbs' pinch hitting is no better than the pitchers he's replacing at this point. He's gone an entire season with a pitcher-like batting average and obp. And if we went back to last season, I suspect it wouldn't be much better. But at what point do the Phillies decide to just jettison a guy and let the removed pitchers hit? Save a bench guy for later in the game or extra innings. What's the difference?

[Sophist]

aksmith - do you really believe Blanton has a better chance of getting a hit than Dobbs?

[aksmith]

Sophist You're the numbers guy. Blanton in particular? No. And besides, he didn't get pinch hit for last night. But I'd certainly look at a pitcher's batting average and make the decision on a case by case basis. Question for you - If you take all the starting pitchers on the Phillies and compare their aggregate average to a Dobbs chance of getting a pinch hit, is there any statistical difference?

Even better, I'd dfa Dobbs and bring up anyone who actually has a chance to hit the ball. Maybe Andy Tracy? He's actually had some minor success at the major league level. But Dobbs really appears cooked.

[jr]

So glad to see all the respect all you BLers have for Vadez.Appreciate him for what he has done.Calling him stupid and ignoring his hits while only pointing out his dps is very near sighted.Also he has been solid in the field.Who cares whether Jroll or Wilson is best. They are teammates and support each other.Some of you should try the same thing.I guess you would rather have Castro out there every day.Lighten up and give credit where it is due.

[Iceman]

CJ- you forgot about Howard, "The Big Problem." I believe he was #2 on Heather's list earlier this season.

[Sophist]

aksmith - the problem with DFAing Dobbs is that he's their only backup IF right now (with Gload and Utley out). Tracy can't play 3B or 2B.

The big unknown in your comparison otherwise is "the odds of Dobbs getting a hit." We know his career numbers against RHP and his recent numbers against RHP, but what are his odds of getting a hit? In any case, Phils pitchers are hitting .123/.159/.144 all together.

I'd say Dobbs chances of hitting are greater than 2/13, aren't they? And for a pitcher those are all singles. Dobbs gives you a shot at an XBH as well.

[HammRadio]

Now, I wouldn't argue with folks who think its time to start thinking about someone else at the top of the line up instead of Rollins. I still think he can be successful and the team score a ton of runs, despite the lack of the REAL ON BASE skills that some suggest.

And before someone suggests Jayson Werth as your lead-off hitter (which I believe are the same ones who suggested Bobby Abreu as lead off), is the data there to suggest that a players OBP and SLG are batting order independent? We get that alot when someone is hot, and you say, well Chooch should be batting 5th with the way he's going. But do we really know if they will have the same success rate in a different place in the batting order?

In a vacuum it seems that you can just put a guy anywhere and if he's a .280/.380 hitter in the 1 hole, he's probably going to be that in the 2 hole or the 6th hole, but is that really true? Are there any studies where you can look at certain players successes or lack of successes in different place in the batting order? Or are sample rates so limited that we can't really get a real sense of what they really can do if they played in a different place in the lineup?

Looking at Rollins splits by batting order you see of course his career numbers in the first batting spot, is of course fairly similar (actually better) to his career numbers (which makes sense since 78% of his career PA are in the 1 hole).

Looking at one guy's splits seems like you can't get a real picture. but has someone looked at it on the whole???

[CJ]

Philadelphia Phillies pitchers are batting .122 this season. Greg Dobbs is hitting .191.

Philadelphia Phillies pitchers have an OBP of .155. Greg Dobbs has an OBP of .252.

Philadelphia Phillies pitchers are slugging .148 this season. Greg Dobbs is slugging .316.

So that's 122/155/148 for an OPS of 303 vs. 191/252/316 for an OPS of 568.

I'll let you decide if you'd prefer Greg Dobbs or a pitcher. (FYI, Cole Hamels has the highest OPS of any starter at .333.)

[CJ]

Looks like my numbers vary a bit from Sophist... but you get the picture.

[MG]

Where is this notion that JRoll came into camp in 'great shape' coming from? If anything, he was carrying from reports an extra 10 or 15 pounds. That isn't a big deal on some players but for a guy who weights 170-180 and depends on speed it is.

This is the 2nd year in 3 years where JRoll has had a significant leg injury early in the season that has effected him all year. He also had some minor issues with his legs last year

My bet is that he had altered his offseason training regimen properly to accommodate for his age. Get away with that when you are in your mid-20s but not necessarily in your early 30s.

Interesting to see how JRoll does approach this offseason but he should have plenty of time without getting married/settled down a bit.

There really is no reason to give him an extension this offseason until you see how he performs next year. Yeah the Phils risk a little cost certainty but giving large 3/4 year deals to players entering their mid-30s is almost always a mistake.

Phils will definitely miss Werth's production next year but I have a feeling that any team that signs him to a 4/5 year deal at huge dollars is going to have alot of agita by the end of that deal.

[Sophist]

Hamm, I'd guess that Rollins plays outside of the leadoff spot when he's either struggling or just coming back from injury. Could explain why his numbers elsewhere are down anyway.

[NEPP]

I love how everyone went the say of "JW is saying Valdez is better than Rollins" path instead of just looking at it as a compliment to a guy stepping up when the team was struck by injuries.

Too Funny

[aksmith]

CJ - I think your numbers on Dobbs are spurious because you include all of his numbers. If you only take his pinch hitting numbers he is hitting well below the pitchers in aggregate. Isn't he?

[CJ]

aksmith: Ah, so you believe in applying smaller sample sizes. I'll indulge you:
100/182/200

So, still hitting a pitcher instead of Greg Dobbs?

1) It's stupid to look at just PH stats, but I've been down that road so many times I'm not sure why I bother.

2) A lineup of 9 pinch hitting Dobbses will perform better than a lineup of 9 Philadelphia pitchers. .382 OPS > .303 OPS

But I'm sure none of this changes your mind. I'm sure you'll jump all over the difference in batting average. This is my last word on Dobbs vs. Phillies starting pitcher.

[curt]

Rollins is like my 11 year old truck. The mileage is getting up there (even a bit of rust), she's not running as smoothly, needs more repairs, and those annual service fees keep getting more expensive. Keep taking my chances with her, or get a new one?

[BloodStripes]

Well said NEPP. Thats was I was thinking. Rollins is a champ. No-one is doubting that. Its just that Valdez has stepped up and done a great job filling in. He was the 3rd stringer, bumped Castro and performed well. Well done Wilson!

Rollins will find his stroke just in time for the stretch run. Get his crappy AB's out of the way now and come good for the business end of the season with Uts and Howard back.

[aksmith]

CJ - I won't beat it to death. But the difference in his performance and the pitchers' performance is pretty slim, considering Dobbs is a below average fielder at all his positions. He's been better as a starter, but also not very good there.

I'm merely saying that over the last two seasons (I know, including one in which he played injured, but he's healthy now) he has been pretty awful at the one thing he's supposedly on the team for. And I have to wonder if there isn't someone in the system or who cleared waivers who could do it even a little better.

[PhxPhilly]

Who should bat leadoff, if not Rollins? Victorino seems to be a similar hitter to Rollins (maybe even less situational). Polanco is supposedly a great #2. Ruiz may have more walks because he often bats 8th.
Werth makes the most sense since he takes pitches and has speed, but then the Phils will have adequate protection behind Howard (Righty power would come from Rollins or Victorino) right? Utley would also be an option but appears a classic #3 hitter.

At different times during the year, I would have suggested either Werth or Utley leadoff because I did not want to bench them but they were in severe hitting funks. In those cases maybe try to instill the 'just get on base philosophy' more than the 'drive in runs philosophy' in hopes they can turn it around.

[Old Phan]

Curt, my truck is also like Rollins, only if he had two broken legs and squeaked a lot.

Phlipper, most excellent. You should be peppered with compliments. Even if I had a beef with it, I would compromise and meat you half way.

[Old Phan]

Andy, my brother hired 2 different au pairs in the last few years. One was a 6 foot tall Polish girl and 1 was a 6 foot 4 inch guy from Germany. Either of those resemble yours?

[Andy]

If the only argument for keeping Dobbs is his defensive versatility, I would suggest DFAing the sucka and bringing up Melvin Dorta. Dorta plays every position except C and CF (probably could fill in at CF too and might even give C a shot). He's been hitting reasonably well at LV, but has a 2010 Dobbsian career BA (4/19) in a few 2006 games at the major league level.

He would still suck, but is a RHB (suddenly in short supply off the bench) and plays whatever your missing at the moment.

Neither is a great option.

[Andy]

Oldster: There's a difference between real au pairs and fantasy au pairs.

(Or your brother needs to "refine" the interview process.)

(And just cause she's 2 yards long don't mean she ain't hot.)

[Old Phan]

Did I say 6 feet tall? I'm sorry, I meant wide.

There really is no reason to keep Dobbs at this point. He seemed to hit a bit more when he actually played a few games, but barring injury, he isn't going to start again.

[Old Phan]

Yo, New Thang.

[bay_area_phan]

sophist: I've been running around all afternoon & missed your post from the last thread. But let me say: I apologize. I read every one of your posts and, rest assured, I put considerable weight on what you have to say -- even more so now that you've been proven right about Ibanez.

The word "excuse" did not translate well via written medium. I simply meant that, just as many people do not believe Rollins' low batting average is a permanent trend, I'm not yet prepared to believe that Rollins' improved walk totals (which are based on a considerably lesser sample size) are a permanent trend.

Rollins is a valuable player. I'm not disputing that (as I said, he's my favorite player). He's certainly one of the better shortstops in the league. I am uneasy, though, about the idea that we should contemplate an extension at this point. Rollins' defense isn't going to get better with age & his speed is going to decline. Coupled with a decline in overall offensive numbers, & trouble staying healthy, I'd be concerned about a long-term deal. I need to see a reversal in some of those trends before I'd even consider locking him up for additional years.

[armand flindo]

Jimmy Rollins is the worst leadoff hitter in baseball. He's a great fielder, but should be hitting eighth in the order.

[homeowners insurance seattle]

GO PHILLIES!

[Tony]

I think what the writer is trying to bring out, is the fact that Jroll, a talented shortstop, should in fact, be way above Valdez in ALL categories! Currently, he isn't.