Worley a strong possibility to make Monday start

The Phillies dropped a major hint regarding their choice for Monday's second double-header starter.

Right-hander Vance Worley pitched just one inning of Friday night's start in Lehigh Valley, and according to Jeff Schuler of the Morning Call, he was greeted with a congratulatory handshake from pitching coach Rod Nichols when he was removed fro the game. The team later confirmed that the 22-year-old was not removed for injury reasons. Worley, a third-round pick in the 2008 draft, is 10-7 with a 3.36 ERA and 119/46 K/BB ratio in 158 innings between Reading and Lehigh Valley. He pitched a shutout inning of relief for the Phillies on July 24 against the Rockies, striking out a pair.

Comments

[Sophist]

Nice comeback year for Worley after a down 2009.

BP elo-adjusted postseason percentages have the WC coming out of the East in ~80% of simulations. 34% Braves, 45% Phils (1% Reds, 7% Cards, 4% Padres, 6% Giants).

[Malcolm]

Good news if it's true. Worley has proven he should get a shot to start and, against the Marlins, is the best choice.

Quick ranks to throw out there:

NL ERA
2. Halladay 2.27
11. Oswalt 3.01
16. Hamels 3.18

NL Strikeouts
2. Halladay 190
4. Hamels 183
11. Oswalt 161

NL WHIP
3. Halladay 1.04
5. Oswalt 1.08
13. Hamels 1.18

Pitcher WAR
1. Halladay 6.6
8. Oswalt 4.3
9. Hamels 4.1

And who leads the National League in K/9? Yup, Vance Worley: 18.00. Ha.

[Burt]

here's an encouraging chart from ESPN-

Lowest ERA in September, Active Pitchers
Zack Greinke, KC 2.40
Roy Halladay, PHI 2.46
CC Sabathia, NYY 2.60
Johan Santana, NYM 2.61
Roy Oswalt, PHI 2.69
Cole Hamels, PHI 2.76
*Minimum 20 starts

[Chris in VT]

This team is poised for another postseason run...as much as people complain about Rube, the '10 team is much stronger than either the '08 or '09 squads when healthy.

[Iceman]

Chris in VT- not sure how you can credit Rube with anything. Just a few threads ago G-Town Dave said the entire FO is full of drooling idiots. That sounds like a cogent argument to me.

[Cipper]

Vance Worley will out pitch Halladays perfect game: 10 ip 30 ks 99 pitches all for strikes, hits walk off grandslam in the 10th. He is the future.

[The Greene Brothers]

Great to see the Phillies reward a guy who has pressed the issue. It is really a pleasure that Drew Carpenter is not coming up. Hope the kid is ready...

[bay_area_phan]

If this is a trap series, then tonight's game is the biggest trap of all. The Phillies have lost Halladay's last 2 starts & Bush, though the epitome of mediocrity, has been known to completely stymie the Phillies.

[mego]

I would say you can credit rube for bringing in guys like polly, gload, contreras, and oswalt (yes I know what you are going to say about lee...) all of those guys have had a big impact whether filling in for injuries or as a starter

[Jack]

Anyone catch the article in the Daily News that Charlie and Dubee are monitoring Halladay's workload because they realize how many innings he's thrown this season?

I imagine most BL posters would call them negative nancies. After all, anyone who complained in May about how many unnecessary innings Halladay was throwing was laughed at on here. Now it looks like the team is worrying about that exact same thing. What pansies.

[Jack]

It's kind of the dominant theme right now, but the way Hamels, Halladay and Oswalt are pitching--this might be the best team for the postseason we've had in this 4-year run.

[Jack]

One weakness: the offense still looks kind of impotent against left-handed pitching, especially when Charlie insists on starting Raul.

Raul has a lower slugging percentage than Chooch overall, and has a .626 OPS against left-handed pitching. The idea that he's an everyday player is a mistake that can hurt this team.

[Jack]

To compare, Francisco has an .810 OPS against lefties. Even if you think Francisco is bad defensively, it's not like you're losing Carl Crawford out there when you replace Raul.

Charlie has to get back to platooning Francisco/Ibanez.

[Sophist]

IP/Start

Doc: 108
Oswalt: 105
Hamels: 104

Too many pitches!!

[Sophist]

That should be Pitches/Start

[mego]

I think someone mentioned this on another thread but id really like to see dom get the start in one of the 2 games Monday over raul, he needs more than an occasional ph to be effective

[Sophist]

Since June

Doc: 128 IP, 1808 pitches
Hamels: 117.1 IP, 1832 pitches

Doc throws a lot of innings but not many pitches in comparison. Manuel probably monitors his IP/Pitches but they should be doing that for all pitchers. Other than May, Doc's use is nothing to worry about, and he's right in line with his numbers from previous seasons.

28 starts in

2010: 214 IP, 3028 pitches
2009: 208 IP, 2951 pitches
2008: 211 IP, 3049 pitches

[Jack]

mego: I think we're all in agreement that we'd like to see Dom get some playing time somewhere, anywhere. He's been sitting on the bench for weeks now, and it's not like he's Wilson Valdez. He should get a start every once in a while.

[CJ]

Jack: Here's how it happened. A reporter said, "Charlie, are you worried about the increased workload for Roy and Roy?"

And Charlie, because he's not an idiot, said, "We're monitoring it." Because if he said otherwise, fans like you would be in an uproar about how Charlie wants their arms to fall off.

In fact, Charlie is so concerned about Roy and Roy's workload that he also said this, "And the best thing about it is him and Oswalt have both pitched on short rest."

Yep... sounds like a guy looking to limit innings!

[CJ]

By the way, Jason must be wrong in guessing that Worley will get the start on Monday. After all, Beerleaguer has spent the last 4 or so threads telling us the idiot monkeys in the front office would never bring up Worley and instead would pitch Robertson. I'm sure that announcement will come soon. There's no way that the Beerleaguer consensus is wrong.

[Chris in VT]

If Doc and Os can both go on short rest, there may not be a need for Joe Blanton in the postseason at all...(only half serious)

[Jack]

CJ: Sounds like a guy who understands the situation and wants to make sure he's getting the best/most out of Halladay (and Oswalt) in the short and long term. Which is exactly what you want. And exactly what people like me were concerned about in May when they were running Halladay out there like crazy.

So we're all on the same page. Good.

[Call me Ishmael]

One would think passive-agressive doesn't come off well via the Interwebs, but I gotta hand it to you guys, you do an amazing job pulling it off.

[CJ]

After the game on Aug. 6th, the Phils pulled within 1 game of the Braves. Before that, they hadn't been closer than 1 game out of first since after the game on Monday May 31st when they were .5 GB after losing to the Braves. They haven't been in first place since after the May 30th game. Since that time, they're 49-37, a .570 win percentage.

You have to go back to May 15th, when the Phils were 24-13 to find when the Phils had a 3 game lead over the Giants, the biggest lead they've had over them all year (they also had a 5 game lead in the division that day).

[CJ]

Jack: Except for one big difference. You are implying that the Phils are admitting they made a mistake with Roy this year by having him pitch too many innings. I don't read that at all.

Charlie is merely trying to placate the nancies who are worried about Roy's arm falling off. That's all. I guess we'll see how much his innings are "managed" down the stretch.

[CJ]

On Beerleaguer, we take passive-aggressive to an art form!

[Fatalotti]

In a seven game series, if the Roys pitch on short rest, and Cole doesn't, what would the rotation look like?

1. Halladay
2. Oswalt
3. Hamels
4. Halladay
5. Oswalt
6. ?
7. Halladay

[clout]

Great news on Worley. Even if he flops it's a better choice than Robertson.

[Bedrosian's Beard]

I think the article shows a LITTLE more concern about Halladay's innings than CJ is willing to admit. However, the big takeaway is they seem to be quite confident he WILL be pitching in October, rather than hoping he gets a chance to pitch in October. I like the confidence.

[Chris in VT]

If we throw Doc x2 Oswalt x2 and Cole on the first 5 games of a series, game 6 might not even be necessary.

[Fatalotti]

Maybe this could work, where you could get all three of the top 3 in the rotation twice, but I don't see how you can get Hamels in the rotation twice and stil get Halladay in three times, if you get to a game 7, not that it would be bad to have Hamels or Oswalt starting, but I feel like they'd want Halladay to start that game. I guess it's a good problem to have.

1. Halladay
2. Hamels
3. Oswalt
4. Blanton
5. Halladay
6. Hamels
7. Oswalt

[CJ]

29-12 since July 21, best in baseball.

[CJ]

Bed Beard: I think they're showing as much concern as is required of a manager who is asked the question.

We'll see down the stretch how much effort is made to limit the innings of any of the big 3.

[Fatalotti]

From Bleacher Reports:

"I don't think it's a stretch to say that there are more than a few teams that would do back-flips if Hamels were their ace, and it's possible he's not even the second-best pitcher on this staff."

Our top three is amazing. For the Philadelphia Phillies fan who is a baseball purist, September ought to a rather unforgettable month.

[CJ]

How Hamels won, from Michael Trainor of ESPN Stats & Information:

A) With control. Of the 39 off-speed offerings Hamels threw, 31 were strikes. That 79 percent figure is his second-best of the season. Of the 25 batters he faced, he started 19 with strikes. That 76 percent figure is also his second-best of 2010.

B) He owned the inside. Brewers hitters were 0-8 with three strikeouts on pitches "middle-in".

C) Weak contact. Inside Edge only graded one ball as "well-hit" -- Hamels' fourth start of the season in which he's allowed one or fewer well-hit balls.

[CJ]

Are we so blinded by the greatness that is Roy Halladay that we're missing how truly great Hamels has become this year?

Hamels has a 2.75 ERA over his last 23 starts. I'm not sure why 3 of his first 5 starts were mediocre, but he's been good enough to be an ace on at least 20 of the teams in MLB since then.

For comparison:
Halladay has a 2.38 ERA over his last 23 starts.

Oswalt has a 3.11 ERA over his last 23 starts.

[Fatalotti]

CJ, I think Hamels April is due in part to his becoming accustomed to using his cutter and curveball more effectively. Once he got a feel for how to use those, he's been a stud. Since his first start in May where he went 8 shutout innings against the Cards (remember that jerk who ran on the field to start the top of the 9th, which was immediately followed by Hamels giving up back to back doubles?), he's been one of the top aces in the game. So has Halladay. Oh, and so as Oswalt.

And they're all on our team.

[CJ]

I hadn't seen this article on Savery and Hewitt.

Savery is headed to the Florida Instructional League to be evaluated as a hitter with the expectation that he'll return to AAA as a position player next season... although that position is up in the air (he played 1st in college, but only because he was also a pitcher). Savery is 25, so it's now or never for him.

Hewitt is headed to vacation because the Phils think he needs to clear his head after another disappointing season at Lakewood... where he'll return next season. Hewitt is only 21, so it's not over for him, but next season will likely be make or break for him.

Two obviously disappointing 1st round picks. It's a good thing the Phils have had success in lower rounds when busting slot.

[CJ]

Fatalotti: That's a good point... perhaps controlling the cutter, or learning when to throw it, was the issue.

I know there were quite a few people who believed the pitch should have been dropped from his arsenal. It now appears as though it's enabled him to take his game to a new level.

[Fatalotti]

Yeah, since Hamels changeup primarily moves in towards lefties and away from righties, it's good for him to have a pitcher that moves away from lefties and in towards righties.

I remember reading the preseason SI article about Halladay, and Derek Jeter said the toughest thing about facing Halladay was that Doc's sinker and cutter came out of his hand looking the same, except one moved away from Jeter (the cutter) and he would topple it over for groundball, and the other moved in towards him, and get in on his hands.

This is the art of pitching. Deception, control, change of speeds, and placing pitches that will be called strikes, but that are still almost unhittable (or at least to the point that you can't do much with them).

[Hugh Mulcahy]

I'm just not worried about hte offense anymore. This pitching staff is the strongest they've had in my memory and, I hate to admit it but, I'm reasonably confident they will win that 3d straight pennant.

Oh, and I watched Nyjer Morgan play 9 innings last night and he did not assault anyone, at least on the field. The kid is making progress.

[Hugh Mulcahy]

Hamels' early struggles were definitely related to working the cutter into his repertoire. He's learned to start it in the zone and have it move off the plate to righties, and to throw it earlier in the count, not late when he had been getting burned. I also think he's really found the curve again. He's fun to watch. Statistically speaking, he's bound to get some good support in September, too.

[mego]

That's one thing I've noticed, he's had a lot more control of his curve, he actually throws it for strikes now which is huge, helps keep hitters from sitting on his change

[CJ]

If Hamels could only become as mentally strong as Halladay... one day he might make a pretty good pitcher!

[c13]

@Jack RE Raul needs to be platooned ...

Couldn't agree more. The lineup struggles against lefties, and Raul has hit well for one month in the past year.

[Fatalotti]

Hamels ERA by month:

April: 5.28
May: 2.45
June: 4.73*
July: 2.16
August: 2.79
September: 0.00

*In June, Hamels' first start was against the Braves, in a torrential downpour, where he only went .2 IP and gave up 3 ER. If we remove that start, his ERA was 3.81. Moral of the story, Hamels has been great every month since April.

[Call me Ishmael]

I know this is severly off-topic, but anyone watching Penn State? This Bolden kid looks like he has no clue where the ball is going when he lets it fly. Maybe we can offer him a BP job next year, gotta be better than Baez (see, tied in the Phils there).

[CJ]

I have to issue an apology. I'm not sure to who, but perhaps that person will remember.

When the Braves dealt for Derrek Lee, someone suggested the Braves would move Glaus to third. I said there was a 0.0% chance of that happening.

I was wrong.

Glaus played 3B in his rehab games and is apparently an option for the Braves there moving forward.

I, for one, hope they do that. They would significantly weaken defense and third and possibly in LF as well if they moved Infante (or Prado? always get them confused) out there.

And what offensive boost will Glaus give? Over his last 52 games (205 PAs), his line is 178/298/282 with an OPS of just 579. For a comparison, Wilson Valdez, in his 284 PAs this season, has a line of 244/277/350 for an OPS of 627.

Please let the Braves panic and put Glaus at 3rd!

[c13]

My perception from Bobby Cox's comments last night where he threw his starter under the bus ...

I'm not going to use the word "panic", but it does seem like they're starting to sweat a bit.

[Old Phan]

c13, as well they should panic. The Phils are starting to play like they're supposed to, which is not good for Atlanta.

[Old Phan]

Many of us talk about the small crowds at The Ted. Just out of curiosity, I went to the Atlanta Journal Constitution newspaper website to see what their writers were saying about the Braves. It took me awhile to find anything about baseball. All Georgia and Georgia Tech stuff, and the only baseball related "sports headlines" was about Nyjerk Morgan. Had to dig a little to read anything about the Braves.

[awh]

CJ, C13 and OP, if the Phils hadn't been as banged up, the Braves would be looking up at them already (though there is no guarantee the Phils pass them).

I've wondered whether they would have traded for RoyO if they had been in 1st all year. That is, would Rube have felt the pressure to make the deal?

[bay_area_phan]

CJ: Yes, the Braves would weaken their defense with that move. And, as we all know, 3rd base is, far and away, the most important defensive position on the field.

Sorry. I just couldn't help myself. I always regarded that comeback as a staple of Beerleaguer commentary, yet clout never has occasion to say it anymore now that Feliz is gone.

[Colorado Joe]

I truly hope that the Phils call up two or three pitchers before Sunday's game. If Kendrick gives up 3 or 4 runs in the first inning, it is inexcusable not to have Nate Robertson or others available to try to keep the game close. The Iron Pigs stink. It's not like they need to keep their pitchers to finish up a playoff season? What possible reason would the Phils not have back up for tomorrow afternoon? Or worse yet a pitcher to go multiple innings in an extra inning game tonight?

[Sophist]

I have to think that the Braves have nothing but passing intentions of playing Glaus at third.

According to Jerry Crasnick, Werth is looking for a new agent.

[Slocs]

the reason ir is important for the Docs to have experience potching on short rest is not to do it in the season but in the post season. Especialy the first series since our three Aces will all pitch in the final weekend against the braves so we will want all three in a best of 5 series.

[passinthru]

re: I hadn't seen "this article" on Savery and Hewitt. posted at 12:46 pm by CJ

CJ - can you re post the web address on this article you referenced above, I was unable to access using the link you provided.

Thanks

[Jim]

Atlanta is a transport town, they are in the middle of SEC/ACC country, college sport is king down there, none of there pro sports teams have ever done well.

[CJ]

Not sure why the link didn't work. Here it is:
http://www.philly.com/philly/sports/phillies/102208309.html

And here it should be clickable.

[Jim]

Doc on the hill tonight against Dave Bush.......Johnson Vs. Jurjens......we have a great shot tonight to get even.....lets hope the offense was just tired and they can carry over the success they had on the second half of the trip...

[Jim]

I read the article......Savery the next Ankiel LOL

[Old Phan]

Jim, didn't the Braves win the division 10 years in a row? Granted, they only won the WS once, but that still looks like a successful franchise.

[passinthru]

thanks CJ..

Maybe the Phils can call SAvery up as well in a PH role ( well maybe next yr)

[Noah]

OP: I think Jim meant in terms of drawing fans, their pro teams are unsuccessful.

[Jim]

I meant at drawing fans old sorry

[Jim]

There fans got bored by the late 90's eventhough they were in the playoffs everyyear, it's one of those areas.....I lived in south florida for a year and it made sense why no one goes to marlins games every bar I would go to watch Phils games, had either phils, mets, yankees, or red sox fans.....I don't think I knew a marlins fan.....the south is just more into college sports

[passinthru]

re: Hewitt: I kinda of think so far - he has more hype than hit... who knows...so far, he is not the 5 tool guy they thought they drafted

[Old Phan]

Jim, gotcha. Very true.

[Jim]

Regardless it is still embarrising when Georgia State playing there first game ever on thursday night drew 30,000 fans and the braves in the middle of a pennant race for the first time in 5 years drew 25,000

[Marley]

With 3 hours until the game, I'm gonna throw this out there:
Ruben Amaro Jr. is not the most likeable guy in the world, but he's been an excellent GM.

[Marley]

too late, new thing >>>

[CJ]

Yo, new thread.