Beerleaguer for breakfast: Halladay misses Chooch

Comments

[Heather]

That was pretty funny. I've never seen Roy Halladay act in a commercial or anything before, and I'm suprising how natural he is. Most athletes are really wooden and stiff.

Thanks for posting.

[Bedrosian's Beard]

"The Phillies are not an offensive threat in the National League."

Uhhh what?!

[Oliver]

I want a chooch plush!

[Phillies Stadium]

A cutter, a work ethic, humility AND a sense of humor? The only reason I'd go to the zoo with Roy is to see if he can communicate telepathically with animals. I swear, if he wasn't married already...

[Heather]

Re: the last thread and "Larry Anderson will never be allowed on TV"...has anybody (with decision making power) actually said this out loud? It's become the meme, but I don't see how what he says is *that* outrageous. Yeah, he bitches, but it's more amusing than anything else. It's not like he's calling for Bud Selig's head on a platter or anything.

Also, I would love it if they would get Josh Lewin from the Rangers TV broadcasts on Phillies TV. They canned him at the end of last year (supposedly due to "going in a different direction"...rumor is that Nolan Ryan just didn't like him.) He'd be miles better than our TV play by play guys.

[Bay Slugga]

That was awesome.

[Lynsk]

I used to love catching Rangers games on the MLB Package b/c of Josh Lewin and his lisp.

[Iceman]

Will- what are you talking about when you say the Phils aren't an 'offensive threat' anymore? Because they might not be a top-3 scoring offense? Do you have to be in the top 3 to be feared?

Losing Werth will certainly not help the offense. But I don't know in what universe this isn't a top 5 offense in the NL (at least), which puts them in the top third of teams. If you disagree, name 5 teams that will score more than the Phils in the NL.

Put together a top 5 scoring offense with this pitching staff (assuming the big 4 stay healthy) and the results will be pretty outstanding.

[Old Phan]

I'm not sure which is funnier, the Halladay video or this..."The Phillies are not an offensive threat in the National League."

[GM-Carson]

That commercial is phan-phreakin-tastic!

[Schmitty's Stache]

Where did the Giants rank as an offensive threat in 10'???

[Dan]

So Carlos Ruiz has two sons named Carlos.

[RSB]

Ugh, no thanks on Josh Lewin. Just a different kind of generic.

Larry Andersen was on TV, for years. It's obvious why he isn't still there. He doesn't have much of a filter, and his criticisms are not limited to umpires. Keeping him on radio seems to me a concession of sorts, because fans would howl if he was fired altogether.

[MG]

RSB - I don't know if fans would howl but he would be missed. Broadcasters like him just dont' get hired today or if they do they only stick around a year or so before being pushed out.

[clout]

To Jack, Will et al: Which are the 3 (or more) NL teams that you think will be ahead of the Phils in runs scored in 2011?

[Will Schweitzer]

What would have been a truly epic commercial is if he took the stuffed Chooch to the zoo.

[bullit]

that certainly busts the myth that roy is a sullen, uncommunicative sort in the steve carlton mold.

[GM-Carson]

Somewhere Howard Eskin is cursing.

[Will Schweitzer]

It seems that Iceman, Clout and Old Phan missed out on the 2010 post season...or else I was hallucinating and we just destroyed San Francisco pitching.

I didn't say they're a weak offensive team, but they are not an offensive threat. The bats can be shut down by a contending ballclub, and with relative ease. Now take Werth out of the equation and add the myriad of health concerns around the diamond, the steady offensive decline of Rollins, the Howard Shift, etc...

Where they ranked in the NL in offensive categories in prior seasons is not relevant to the discussion. Being 5'5" in a room of midgets does not make you Wilt Chamberlain.

I stand by my statement. This team is built on pitching and (to a lesser degree) defense. It is not built on offense.

2011 is a world of difference from 2008. Offense is not winning the Phillies a championship. This club will win more games scoring 3 runs or less than any team in baseball.

[Sam]

Oh my god. I wonder if he did this first take, or if they had to do it a bunch of times, until he smiled enough.

[cut_fastball]

clout -- IMHO:

* Cincinnati (Votto appears to be a man on a mission)
* Atlanta (B. Schneider just rakes and makes the whole lineup feel more dangerous)
* St. Louis (Senor Pujols is on a "Mission from God" to get his 10-year/$300mm)

Sans-Werth and looking more like sans-Chase most of the time, we just may "scuffle" quite a bit this year. Disclaimer: Howard hits breaking stuff and has a monster year.

[nonamePHame]

That commercial is awesome. I love it.

[Bedrosian's Beard]

He's got a little room for his stats to go up, but I'm not sure Pujols' #'s can make up that much of a difference.

B. Schneider?

[Andy]

Thanks for the post, JW. Great stuff.

[Schmitty's Stache]

I think he meant McCann, who still can't see straight after Victorino trucked him in 08'

http://mlb.mlb.com/video/play.jsp?mid=200807273210124

Any answer other than COL = fail, and that's mostly because they play in COL

[CJ]

Phils could certainly fall to 4th or lower in runs scored this year. I'm fairly certain the Reds and Rockies will outscore the Phils. Then a group including the Brewers, Braves and Cardinals could compete. If things go wrong, Phils could be as low as 6th.

That's assuming no other NL team explodes (like maybe Arizona) and that the Phils don't collapse offensively (which I don't see happening).

[Conshy Matt]

i can't take anyone seriously who can mistake mccann for brian schneider. sorry cut-fastball, you lose.

colorado and cinci are the only two offenses in the nl that are better/as good as the phils on paper.

[Schmitty's Stache]

When did Phillips and Rolen get to Cincy?
Other than 10', they aren't even ranked in the top 10 for runs scored. 11th in 09'. The Phils have been consistently in the top 5 since 07'. My money's on the Phils

[Cipper]

Why does every one keep talking about the offense? It's still glaringly obvious the Phils biggest issue is that Polonco isn't tall enough to play third.

[Schmitty's Stache]

Correction...top 3 since 04'...DAMN

[Jack]

Clout: In some order, the Phils, Rockies, Reds, Brewers, Cards and Braves will probably be the top 6 offenses. Any of those teams could score more than the Phils.

I also like the DBacks as a sleeper offense.

[CJ]

As Schmitty's Stache says, the Phils have been a top 3 offense since 2004. To suggest they're no longer an offensive threat or that they're about to fall off the table is just plain dumb. This is a very good offense.

[Schmitty's Stache]

don't forget we lost davey lopes to LA, so subtract another 20 runs scored or so...

[Lake Fred]

I really enjoyed this commercial. I haven't seen this one on the local Houston and New Orleans stations.

[Jack]

CJ: So what's the bet then? You think they'll still be a top 3 offense, I bet they won't.

[timr]

You wait and see, Brian Schneider IS gonna rake this year!

[CJ]

Jack: Haven't you read what I've written? Just a half hour ago, I wrote, "Phils could certainly fall to 4th or lower in runs scored this year."

This team has been a great offensive team for a long time and I don't anticipate that changing suddenly because Jayson Werth is gone. Will they be top 3? I don't know. Injuries are a huge wild card there. I'd be shocked if they weren't at least top 5.

[Jack]

CJ: Ok, cool. I'm with you then.

Obviously if Utley turns out to be more seriously injured than it seems, people would have to project even further downward. Losing both Werth and an effective Utley would really, really hurt the offense. Those are the only two guys who got on base the last couple years at a high level (other than Chooch, who I love, but whose numbers were probably inflated in the #8 spot).

[Andy]

ATL has potential to have decent offensive numbers. But they have to play 18 games against the best rotation in baseball. That oughta cut them down a bit.

[bay_area_phan]

I don't think they'll be top 3, and I'm not even sure about top 5. But I also think it over-simplifies the issue to just look at total runs scored. Last year's Phillies were 2nd in the league in runs scored, but right around the middle of the pack in terms of games in which they were totally shut down (i.e, 3 or fewer runs). Most of you want to write that off as a statistical fluke, but the alternative explanation is that our offense, despite the overall run totals, is far too prone to being shut down by certain kind of pitchers. And I'm not just talking about the kind of pitchers who shut everyone down. I'm talking about average and fringe major league pitchers whose style absolutely befuddles the Phillies (i.e., left-handers, knuckle-ballers, finesse pitchers, guys they've never seen before).

Wherever the Phillies wind up in total runs scored this year (I'd guess somewhere between about 4th & 7th), I think we're also going to see another season like last year, in which we are completely shut down in very nearly half our games. We will win a decent number of those games because of our pitching. But any time you score 3 or fewer runs, you're going to lose the vast majority of those games.

[Brett]

A commercial made my day. Slow day.

GM Carson, why is Eskin cursing somewhere?
I personally can't stand the guy and am waiting for him to say the wrong thing and become a relic of the negadelphia past.

[Iron Joe]

What the Phillies really need is for young fireballer Simon Chamberlain to finally reach his potential. He has monarch-like control & a nasty demeanor.

[Andy]

MIL has lots of offensive minded players who are younger than thirty. They're offense has the potential to improve dramatically.

[CJ]

Dom is back in the lineup batting 6th.

[Jack]

Andy: You're crazy. Haven't you heard? Baseball players are WAY better in their mid-30s than in their 20's. That's what I've learned on BL. Just look at Hank Aaron's career!

[Jack]

CJ: Wild prediction, but I think Dom gets his first hit today. And maybe his second as well.

[Andy]

Sorry, Jack. I forgot.

[CJ]

Well, Phils aren't facing Beckett and are instead facing a very young RHP, so that's ideal for Dom.

In the first, Vic grounded out, Young walked and was doubled up on a ball ripped down the line.

[Schmitty's Stache]

Crawford in the 3 spot = Fail

They do know he's a leadoff hitter, right?

[Willard Preacher]

BAP, you summed up my thoughts absolutely perfectly. I couldn't have said it better.

Being 2nd in the NL in runs scored isn't the key indicator here. Nor, quite frankly, is scoring a bunch of runs and being in the top 5 going to be the key to whether or not this team is successful, thanks to the pitching.

I'm not quite in Will's court ready to say that this team is "not an offensive threat," because against the right pitchers, this team will absolutely explode for some runs.

The concern should basically be exactly what BAP alluded to - those pitchers that the Phils notoriously struggle against, especially now losing their key RH power piece. That said, thankfully there are only so many left handed pitchers in the NL.

To me, it's less about where they'll fall in total runs scored (probably somewhere in the top 5, but that speaks more to the swill that is the rest of the NL), than it is about the number of games they score >3 runs, which I think will be somewhere right around last year's 75 number, which seems to be middle of the pack in the NL.

[CJ]

Another hit for Benny Frank. Come clout day, he's going to be looking like a lock for the RF starting spot.

[Willard Preacher]

BenFran continuing his tear.

[CJ]

Base hit for Mayberry Jr. But should have been caught. High fly ball that the OF moved back on, then the wind stopped it and it dropped.

[CJ]

Dom is up with runners on 1st and 2nd, nobody out.

[Willard Preacher]

JD Drew misplays a ball (windy today).

No report on whether or not the D cell battery heading toward his head played a factor.

[Willard Preacher]

Brown with an infield fly rule out.

[CJ]

Infield pop out for Dom.

[Schmitty's Stache]

You guys agree with each other, great. But I'm still not sure what you're saying, because you haven't said anything yet. Being in the top 5 for runs scored leaves a window of 50-60 runs. Are you saying there is a dramatic drop off from the previous 7 seasons or not? Stop back peddling with statements about the rest of the NL, whom, in case you didn't know is the competition.

I've got the Phils > 116 Ws

[Shawn]

Top 5, top 3, top 7, at the end of the day, what matters is top 1 in the NL east in Wins to secure homefield advantage, something that will obviously be extremely important if we're lucky enough to head to the world series. Oh, and we need to kick butt in the All Star game just in case.

I'd rather have the '11 team than the '08 team in a playoff series. That much is obvious.

[CJ]

Phils take a 2-0 lead on a double by Larish.

[Jack]

Schmitty: Yes, there is a drop-off from the past seasons.

2005: 807 runs
2006: 865 runs
2007: 892 runs
2008: 799 runs
2009: 820 runs
2010: 772 runs

My guess is the Phils will score even less runs than last year. Which means they will be scoring easily their fewest runs in the past seven seasons.

[Willard Preacher]

Schmitty, how about this? - The 2011 Phillies will struggle to score as many runs as they did in 2010. (I don't know what you define as "dramatic")

Whether or not that puts them in the top 3, top 5, or whatever, is largely based on what the other noted teams do.

To be quite frank, however, I believe that what I'm saying (and I think what BAP is saying) is that the position in runs scored in the NL in 2011 is essentially a meaningless indicator as to whether or not this team is winning.

I don't think I'm going out on a limb to state that the Phillies will rely primarily on pitching as the key to their success this season.

[Shawn]

Jack: Don't forget to include MLB avg runs in each of those seasons as well. Then you'll really get to see the extent at which the Phillies excelled in scoring runs all of those years.

[Willard Preacher]

All this talk about being 2nd in the NL in runs scored last year (despite the gawd-awful drought that we all suffered through), yet nothing about how the Phillies led the NL in Perfect Games (tied with OAK for all of MLB) and post-season No-hitters.

[Schmitty's Stache]

So then you're stating the obvious by using a not so obvious argument. You're saying the team is going to win with it's SP...Thank You Captain Obvious.

And you explain that by saying the offense is going to score less runs than 10', or they might score runs, but other teams will score more...Got It

I think

[Jack]

Shawn: The Phils' offense was fantastic those years (2005-2007). Just really a tremendous lineup that got on base and hit for tons of power.

Doesn't do either thing nearly as well anymore. Luckily, we no longer have Jon Lieber as our #1 starter, though.

[Willard Preacher]

Schmitty, what I'm saying is that you guys who want to qualify this team's ability by offensive potential by using where you project they'll rank in total runs scored are missing the boat.

I know I'm stating the obvious that pitching is where they're hanging their hat. So, meaningless as it also is, isn't runs scored against (to account for pitching/defense) a better indicator? In 2010, the Phils were 4th, behind SD, SF and ATL. I think that we'd agree that they should improve here (again, the merits of the metric as an indicator are also debatable).

Net/net, the improvement in pitching is more than enough to offset the probable decline in runs scored. But more than that, the pitching staff's consistency SHOULD be much more predictable than the offense, which is precisely why RAJ has chosen to formulate the team in this manner.

Also, pitching typically is a better key to success in the playoffs, mostly because of the lesser variation in consistency vs. offense. Ask the Giants how that phenomenon works.

[Schmitty's Stache]

Jack - There is a dropoff, league wide. The point you're missing, is even if the most runs scored in the league is high 800's or high 700's, the Phils have been either 1st, 2nd, or 3rd.

If 10' is a dropoff compared to the previous seasons, then there is also a dropoff for every other team, because we still scored the 2nd most runs

[Willard Preacher]

"If 10' is a dropoff compared to the previous seasons, then there is also a dropoff for every other team, because we still scored the 2nd most runs"

2010 is widely recognized as a pretty abysmal offensive year for MLB, so yes, this is exactly right. I can't see where 2011 will be significantly better with MLB basically doing all they can to temper offense, for some reason I can't fathom.

[Kutztown Fan]

Did clout just ask people to predict which teams will score more runs than the Phils this year? I thought predictions were idiotic.

[Schmitty's Stache]

Cole through 3 IP, 16 strikes and 4 balls. He might have to pitch the 4th just to break a sweat

[bay_area_phan]

Hamels usually pitches awful in spring training but he has looked really good so far this year. That can only mean that a bad year is in the cards.

[Willard Preacher]

KF, the predictions, themselves are not idiotic. Just those who make them. It's a test.

[clout]

KF: You obviously didn't comprehend my post about the meaning of Clout day. It has nothing to do with predictions.

[krukker]

WP: If I had to guess, it's because high offense is being closely associated with PED use, fairly or unfairly. MLB wants to shed the image of a roided McGwire, Sosa and Bonds putting up artificial numbers.

What's ironic though is the McGwire/Sosa home run race in 1998 is exactly what MLB needed to rejuvenate interest in the sport after the strike. Now it's the exact opposite - something they want to distance themselves from.

Aside from that, offense comes and goes in cycles in MLB history. The period of 1995-2005 or so was a very high peak. Over the past 5 years or so, there's been a greater emphasis on pitching and defense, and scoring is down as a result. I would imagine that this will continue for another 5-10 years and then overall offense will start to trend upward again, but probably not to the levels of 1995-2005.

[CJ]

Dom Brown gets a lefty in his 2nd AB and he hits a weak, broken-bat liner to 2nd.

[bay_area_phan]

Andrew Miller against Domonic Brown. Any predictions about the outcome?

[bay_area_phan]

Oh, I guess my post was too late. For the record, I predicted a weak, broken-bat liner to 2nd.

[Willard Preacher]

Brown down again (flair to 2B). He's putting the ball in play, to his pull side, but nothing smoked as of yet.

Any idea on why they have him batting so low in the order? Why not move him up to get him an extra AB or two per game?

[CJ]

Schmitty's Stache: Those pitch counts aren't accurate. Cole has looked very good, but he's thrown more than 4 balls... after all, he walked one guy.

[Willard Preacher]

krukker, I think you're right. I'd have to imagine that there's a direct correlation between offense and interest in baseball, but it's probably tough to quantify, as "interest" is pretty subjective. Attendance will largely be dictated by the strength of the key teams (NYY, PHI, BOS, etc.). Perhaps ratings?

At any rate, the layman type of fan is probably not blown away by the current state of the game. Chicks dig the long ball, right?

I understand the safety concern, but the direction MLB has given the bat companies relating to maple bat manufacturing is yet another example of how they're inhibiting offense. I won't even get started on the strike zone controversy.

[CJ]

The Great Dane is swinging the bat well early in the preseason. I'm guessing he was top choice for the first callup at catcher going into the season and come clout day, he'll likely have that locked up.

[Willard Preacher]

Hamels out to pitch another inning.

[Schmitty's Stache]

figures...the phils site says listen for free, and it takes you to an MLB login page, so I'm stuck watching the gameday recreation thing a ma gigger...it did say 20 pitches, 16 strikes, 4 balls though. thanks, fool me once...

[CJ]

Another 1-2-3 inning for Cole. His stuff was apparently really good as well. After 4 innings, I'm sure he's done. Great outing.

[Willard Preacher]

Schmitty, it's a cruel joke, anyway. Yeah, we get to hear Franzke, but they threw in Wheels, too. Bittersweet.

I'm going to guess that ST gameday ignores real pitch count and just uses 4 balls for every walk, and probably 3 strikes for each K, and maybe a pitch for each other hit/out. Cole has definitely thrown more than 20 pitches through 3 innings.

[Willard Preacher]

CJ, any idea who else is on the slate to pitch today? I think Lidge went yesterday.

[clout]

WP: 12-11 games are the equivalent of arena football. HRs become cheap when everyone hits them (or everyone who takes steroids.)

You don't want to go back to 1968, but I think intelligent fans like games in which offense and defense is in balance. It creates a greater drama on each decision and play, whether it's a pitcher's decision on what to throw or a manager's decision on which pinch hitter to use.

Of course, baseball has no desire to attract intelligent fans, which is why they sell the ballpark experience, booming scoreboards to lead cheers, carnival attractions and overpriced parking and food.

It is far, far more lucrative to market your product toward a wider audience, most of whom don't particularly care about baseball but do like an exciting time out. Seeing a bunch of guys you couldn't name hit HRs adds to that experience.

[Jack]

Not to get into the steroid debate, but FWIW, more pitchers, I believe, than hitters have been suspended for steroid use.

There are many people who think that expansion, new stadiums, and a possible change to the ball played much more of a role in the power explosion of the 90's and early 00's than steroids.

[CJ]

Delwyn Young fails the "Polanco" test. After a leadoff double by Vic, Young flies out to left field, failing to advance the runner, who would have scored on a sac fly by the next hitter.

[Willard Preacher]

clout, I agree, which is why it befuddles me that MLB (who should be looking to attract fans, rather than detract) continues to work to diminish the offense. Perhaps the Jumbotron and racing sausages more than compensates?

[clout]

krukker: There have been some good articles written about the cyclical nature of offense in baseball, including one in the latest Hardball Times annual.

Worth mentioning is that these cycles are almost always prompted by a change in rules or conditions. The strike zone has been changed more than few times, balls wrapped tighter and looser, the mound raised and lowered, small ballparks replaced by big ballparks etc. etc. etc.

The current decline in offense is almost certainly partly caused by the crackdown on steroids, HGH etc.

[Jack]

Surprised there hasn't been more discussion of Utley on here today. Amaro said that his condition is the "same" as it was last week.

That really doesn't sound good.

[CJ]

Jack: Your point about pitchers vs. hitters doesn't really tell us much. It's possible that the benefits of steroids for hitters far outweigh the benefit for pitchers.

After all, we still have tiny stadiums and too many teams, but offensive stats are declining. What other explanation is there than stringent steroid testing?

[Willard Preacher]

Personally, I love a good 2-1 well-fought pitcher's dual, but I'm not who MLB should be targeting, as I've always been a die hard fan of the game.

With the uncertainty of NFL/NBA, now would be the time to curry the favor of Joe Blow Common Fan guy. Further inhibiting offense isn't exactly the way to do that.

BTW, Valdez into the game in CF. Mathieson on the mound.

[bay_area_phan]

Jack: Intuitively, though, it's much easier to see a causal connection between steroid use and homerun production than steroid use & pitching performance. I'm not saying steroids don't improve a pitcher's performance. I just wonder if they would help it to the same extent that they would help a hitter's.

[CJ]

Willard: I haven't heard who else is slated for the mound today. Pitching now is Mathieson. Not sure who's next.

[Schmitty's Stache]

WP - I think it has to do with perception. We can't even celebrate the McGwire and Bonds marks. Clemens? These guys should be the receiving accolades and commentating, but instead, they are almost forgotten.

MLB network did a top whatever moments of the 90s, and McGwire breaking the single season record was #1. When was the last time you saw that replay? Does the average fan even know how many HRs Barry Bonds hit in a season, or how many career HRs he has.

Ask the question, who has the most career HRs, and see how many people answer Babe Ruth.

[Jack]

CJ: Actually, very recent stadiums such as PETCO and Citi Field have been strong "pitchers parks", as opposed to the smaller ones that were built in the 1990s and early 00s.

But yes, your point is valid. We really don't know. What I object to is merely the presumption that it MUST be steroids-related. Steroids might have played a part, but without proof, I am skeptical that it is the only reason for the offensive explosion of the 90s and the recent decline.

There's always statistical outliers in an era of expansion, which then normalizes after a time (think it's coincidence that Maris hit 61 in a year of expansion?).

[Willard Preacher]

Wheels gushing over Valdez because he made a catch in tough wind.

He's already in mid-season form. A comment about Jose Reyes' skill set should be forthcoming any minute now.