Tough series with power-packed Reds awaits

The Phillies head to Cincinnati in search of their fifth win in six games. The Reds have lost five in a row but remain one of the most talented teams in the National League and the favorite to win the NL Central.

This will be a much more difficult series than the two the Phillies won last week. Cincinnati has a dynamic lineup that makes pitchers work and has power all over the place.

Shin-Soo Choo was one of the best additions made by a contender this offseason. By trading Drew Stubbs to Cleveland for Choo, the Reds essentially subbed out a .312 OBP for a .380 OBP. Choo also has more power than Stubbs and hits for a higher average. Choo's problem has been that he's not a centerfielder by trade, and he's struggled to play the position so far.

With Choo, Joey Votto, Brandon Phillips, Jay Bruce and Todd Frazier, the Reds have a formidable 1-6. A key in the series will be keeping the two-hole hitter -- Chris Heisey -- off base. Heisey has power but is really struggling this season, as has anyone else who has batted second for the Reds. Their two-hole hitters have batted .236 with a .276 OBP through 12 games.

Votto is off to a remarkable start. He has only three extra-base hits and three RBIs, but he's walked 20 times already. That's more than the Chicago White Sox. That's as many walks as Ben Revere, Jimmy Rollins, Chase Utley, Ryan Howard, Domonic Brown and Laynce Nix combined.

Excluding Albert Pujols, no two players in all of baseball have combined for 20 walks. And it's not as if Votto is being pitched around because he has no protection. Phillips, Bruce and Frazier bat right behind him.

Cincy's pitching hasn't met expectations so far. Aroldis Chapman hasn't had a save opportunity since April 7, Sean Marshall is on the DL and Jonathan Broxton was roughed up his last time out.

Tonight's pitching matchup pits Cliff Lee against Bronson Arroyo. Lee has the lowest walk rate in baseball since the start of 2012 and Arroyo is third, behind Kyle Lohse. Arroyo has terrible career numbers against the Phillies (2-7, 6.55 ERA) and his opponents' batting average vs. Rollins, Utley, Howard, Young and Brown is .333.

Galvis starts again

Make it three starts in three days at three different positions for Freddy Galvis. He'll play second base for a resting Chase Utley.

Galvis is 3-for-6 with two walks the last two days, and he avoided a scary hand injury when Jon Rauch hit him there with a fastball Sunday in Miami.

Phillies lineup

1) Ben Revere, CF
2) Freddy Galvis, 2B
3) Jimmy Rollins, SS
4) Ryan Howard, 1B
5) Michael Young, 3B
6) Domonic Brown, LF
7) Laynce Nix, RF
8) Erik Kratz, C
9) Cliff Lee, P

Reds lineup

1) Shin-Soo Choo, CF (.354/.483/.604)
2) Zack Cozart, SS (.159/.174/.386)
3) Joey Votto, 1B (.289/.542/.447)
4) Brandon Phillips, 2B (.327/.346/.653)
5) Jay Bruce, RF (.255/.281/.345)
6) Todd Frazier, 3B (.318/.400/.591)
7) Chris Heisey, LF (.167/.205/.286)
8) Ryan Hanigan, C (.069/.200/.069)
9) Bronson Arroyo, P

Comments

[lorecore]

Jay Bruce doesn't have a HR yet? Uh oh.

[GTown_Dave]

Arroyo has terrible career numbers against the Phillies (2-7, 6.55 ERA) and his opponents' batting average vs. Rollins, Utley, Howard, Young and Brown is .333

Great. Here comes the CGSO.

[MG]

Arroyo so far is back to the meatball throwing guy he was in '10-'11. I really like the Phils tonight.

[Phillibuster]

(From previous)

awh: Because I like seasons (and snow), and burn easily? Also, I like being able to walk places/take public transport, and most of SD's MTA was pretty terrible the last time I was there (light rail excluded).

Also, while I get along with them well, I'm the by-blood-but-not-by-upbringing step-brother once removed. It's about as "distantly" related as you can be while still having the same birth mother/step-mother.

[awh]

"awh: Because I like seasons (and snow), and burn easily?"

buster, sunscreen dude. Sunscreen. :)

[Kendrick Appreciation Society]

Turner Field = Terrible
New Busch Stadium = Worse than terrible

I've been to PNC, Camden, CBP, Minute Maid, GAB, Wrigley, Kauffman, Turner, Busch and would rank them in that order.

I plan on going to Comerica and Cellular this year if I can.

[awh]

While Corey has written an nice thread header up above, he still has not comprehended the concept and reality of the BL Reverse Jinx.

[awh]

And as far as Votto is concerned, if they walk him every time in this series I'm OK with that.

[GTown_Dave]

In all seriousness, I do hope the Phils come ready to hit tonight. Cliff Lee has decent numbers in Cincinnati, but not great numbers, & it's the perfect venue in which a powerful ball club might take advantage of his major weakness: the long ball. If Cliff doesn't get the corners, watch out.

[Phillibuster]

awh: Given the option, I'd live in Philly. Barred that option, I'd probably live in Lancaster (PA). At the moment, I live in Baltimore (so I was sad the Phils aren't coming to Camden Yards this year).

Either way, no leaf-turning, garden-growing, or snow-falling in SD!

If I had to move to the West coast, I'd probably prefer Seattle, Portland, and SanFran before San Diego. Although SD would definitely would come before LA.

[MG]

Joey Votto is the best overall hitter in MLB. I am definitely going to try to get out of work to catch the game on ESPN tonight.

Here's hoping Lee is at Full Tilt but the good thing is that Doc's outing yesterday gave the bullpen a needed rest.

[Cyclic]

I'm hoping we get to have some more fun with Broxton.

[awh]

buster, I live in the Philly burbs and love it, though CC is great too (hang there a lot).

On the West Coast, I'm wary of the far north because I don't think I'd like the 250 days of rain in Seattle (from what I hear). I also hear Portland can be wet too.

San Fran would be OK, Santa Barbara too, and I also have relatives in Orange County who love it Huntington Beach (Surf City, USA).

[MG]

GTown Dave - Yeah it isn't too hard to see a couple of Reds taking him deep.

There is a 30% chance of t-storms there so I wouldn't be surprised if there is a possible rain delay.

[Phillibuster]

awh: I grew up in CC (right by 12th & Locust) and Fairmount, then head to Lancaster for college and learned to love it a lot more than I had any right to expect I would going in.

Only visited Seattle once, but had a great time. The climate's to my liking (also: seafood) and I don't mind the rain. Portland's in the same general boat. Added bonus is the PNW's restaurant scene is exploding, and that's where I like to spend my discretionary funds.

Technically, I think my better half's mother lives in San Fran, but that's not a household I would really want to live in...

[lorecore]

Casper wells re-dfa'd

[GBrettfan]

Holy crap. There were 2 explosions near the finish line of the Boston Marathon. I'm not sure what concrete news is known yet, but I just saw this horrifying news:

The Boston Globe ‏@BostonGlobe 1m
Eyewitness: "Blood everywhere" after powerful explosions near Boston Marathon finish line.

[NEPP]

Lived in Seattle for 3 years...it really does rain that much but the summers are usually dry and sunny. Stadium is fantastic too

[lorecore]

Wasn't someone just saying that Patriots Day is the best part of living in Boston? What an awful event to mar such a non-controversial celebratory day/event.

[Phillibuster]

Wow... Hope none of my girlfriend's family was out to watch. Although the event was tragic in and of itself, to be sure.

[Joe D]

Now this is a lineup I would have liked to see Doc get a shot at. Going to be a very tough series. I hope Lee can stay hot.

[NEPP]

FWIW, Patiots Day is a great time typically (I lived in Boston for a couple years and loved it).

This is just horrible though.

[Joe D]

And that really is awful about the Boston Marathon. My thoughts and prayers are with those affected by it. I really wish there weren't so many terrible people on this earth.

[Iceman]

They passed over Wells once. I don't think with DYoung ready to come back they'll be interested this time.

I feel the opposite of MG. I'm actually worried about this game. It feels prime for Lee giving up a few long balls.

Not hitting Arroyo wouldn't be as bad as letting Slowey off the hook, but it would still be pretty pathetic.

[NEPP]

NECN is saying a third bang/explosion just happened...

[NEPP]

That's a definite on the 3rd explosion apparently...damn.

[Phillibuster]

Suddenly makes the overreaction a few years back to the advertising campaign that set up dozens of Lite Brites all over town a little less ridiculous.

Though it was still over the top.

[NEPP]

Apparently the 3rd was a controlled explosion by the EOD folks.

[Phillibuster]

A "buddy" of one of the ABC reporters just texted him to say they discovered an unexploded bomb in the Mandarin Hotel.

[Joe D]

Oh how I would love to pummel the people who did those bombings.

[Phillibuster]

I'm sure everyone knows, but 22 injured, 2 deceased, according to ABC.

[GTown_Dave]

Utley sits tonight. Galvis at 2B, batting 2nd. Rollins batting 3rd. Nix in RF, batting 7th.

[NEPP]

2 dead, 22 wounded per BPD.

So far.

[NEPP]

***Utley sits tonight. Galvis at 2B,***

Ooh, good to see UC continuing his rotation of Galvis.

Also, Utley clearly needs a day off anyway.

[Joe D]

Yeah it's good that Charlie realized Utley needs a breather. Galvis looks pretty comfortable right now too.

[lorecore]

No problem with Utley getting an off day at all - but not sure how you put Galvis in the 2 hole.

It would at least make sense for Galvis to hit #3 since he's "replacing" Utley. That would be stupid too, but at least has a motive. Acknowledging the need to move the lineup with Utley out, but then putting Galvis #2 is just devoid of logic.

[NEPP]

***but not sure how you put Galvis in the 2 hole.***

Classic UC logic: He played there yesterday and had some hits...therefore, now he's a 2-hole hitter.

[awh]

buster, sounds like you're an F&M alumnus?

[Phillibuster]

AWH: Indeed I am. Class of not-too-long-ago.

[lorecore]

nepp: ha, that was my thinking yesterday... galvis replaces Rollins, so he bats #2. OK fine, if you don't want to disturb the rest of your lineup when you sub someone out - sure whatever.

[Joe D]

Well Charlie likes Galvis 2 because for some reason he thinks he is fast. All batting orders are determined by speed (or perceived speed). Much like high leverage situation involvement is determined by age.

[awh]

Link on Drudge to the NY Post is reporting 12 dead in Boston.

The people who perpetrated this are true members of the Moronocracy.

And Joe D - merely pummeling them would be letting them off easy.

[bullit]

awh: as a lancastrian, i was just going to ask buster if he went to f&m. great school and great surroundings.

[Sil Campusano]

Prelim reports are all over the place - I read 3 dead. One is too many.

[Joe D]

@awh, well true. There really is no punishment that these people will face that will be good enough but death should be a certainty.

[Phillibuster]

What sickens me even worse than the event itself is that I could see some international betting syndicates doing this sort of thing to cover their asses.

I'd not be surprised if bribing FIFA officials/players to rig matches/spreads is the least of their illicit activities.

[GTown_Dave]

I was born at Lancaster General, but I don't believe I've been back to the city proper since.

[awh]

buster, ditto! What year? Me: 1990.

[Phillibuster]

"It sounded like the loudest thunder anyone had heard. Is that a description?"

"Oh, most definitely a description."

Perhaps it's human nature to make light of tragedy, somewhat, to help process it, but the English major in me groaned at that exchange (though it would have chuckled if I thought the second person was being ironic).

[Phillibuster]

GTown: Better LGH than LRMC.

awh: Heh, you've got me beat by a few years. Class of '06, here.

[Phillibuster]

Bullit: In fact, I continued to work for the school for a good 6+ years after graduation (With some part-time work out at Park City).

[bullit]

buster: my dad is a f&m grad ('39) and he advised me against going there as his experience as a "townie" was not that great. so off i went to u of d and have always regretted it.

[4 doos]

So they changed Patriot Day to Jackie Robinson Day? Why not call it antiwhite day?

[Phillibuster]

bullit: I can understand the thought process there, definitely. Although I will say, even coming from Philly, the advantages of knowing some of the cool stuff to do in the area was a huge advantage in enjoying my time there as compared to kids from, say, NYC or Boston (biggest drawing cities among student body after Philly/'burbs).

However, U of D isn't cheap (in fact, I've got a number of friends/coworkers who went there), but F&M is fairly ridiculous without significant financial aid (I was lucky: got out just before the financial bust, so my loan rates and aid were very solid). There's a lot to be said for not coming out of undergrad 40K in the hole.

[awh]

bullit, U of D is an excellent school. I have lots of friends from HS that went there.

[Phillibuster]

Also true. In fact, if I remember correctly, that's Biden's alma mater as well.

[Pblunts]

I'm all for giving Chase a breather, but this lineup is illogical, at best. As someone posted over the weekend, this kind of stuff is why I'm looking forward to someone else taking a crack at the lineup card next season.

[bullit]

awh: u of d is a great school. my mother's niece attended at the time and i qualified for early admission, so the decision was easy.
but compared to the history and aesthetics of lancaster, newark, del. sucked royally.

btw it cost only $6K/yr(2 semesters)in 1965 and that included room and board.

[Phillibuster]

3rd explosion was at the JFK Library.

[NEPP]

Wow...takes this from the realm of amateur douchebag (aka 1996 Olympics) into serious terrorist attack (either domestic wackadoos or foreign bad guys).

Not cool.

[Phillibuster]

Last I heard, a year, with room & board, at F&M was in the $54K range.

When I was there, it was in the 34-40 (progressively increasing each year) range.

[NEPP]

***at F&M was in the $54K range.***

Ouch.

[Phillibuster]

ABC was quick to point out that Patriots day (4/19) is also the anniversary of the Oklahoma City bombing, and the storming of the Waco compound (although the timing of that had less to do with the people inside than the people outside, I would think), so there's definitely precedent on the domestic front.

[Phillibuster]

NEPP: Indeed. I got out relatively light, by comparison.

[Phillibuster]

Didn't realize JFK was UMass Boston's main library.

My girlfriend attended UMass Boston.

[bullit]

i hope this was homegrown terrorism. the southern poverty law center, who monitors hate groups says the rise is phenomenal. time we turned a strong lens on these bastards who are itching to fight the government with their bushmasters. sorry for the politics.

[Phillibuster]

In somewhat-relevant-to-this-forum thoughts: I wonder if tonight's games will start/start on time.

ABC reporting a number of metro areas are delaying/postponing/canceling events where large crowds will congregate. Have to think stadiums apply there.

[Phillibuster]

JFK Library explosion not yet linked. Allegedly smaller, and a fire started in the mechanical room.

Can't rule out boiler explosion, electrical fire blowing door open, etc.

[Phillibuster]

(Being a former college library employee, I've got my own emotional connections there)

[Phillibuster]

JFK explosions being considered a "confirmed attack" (source: Boston Herald).

[bullit]

now the reports say the jfk explosion was unrelated.

[Phillibuster]

Probably shouldn't trust the Herald, I hear.

[Lake Fred]

bullit, you are out of line. They have a Person of Interest with schrapnel wounds, a Saudi National according to the NY Post. Sorry to throw cold water on your wishes that it be a disgruntled American.

As for baseball, all these high priced contract players will be in bad moods as their accountants have called, telling them to write a big check to Uncle Sam on tax day. Will Cliff Lee be mad and wild, or mad and focused?

[DPatrone]

Everything takes a back seat to the explosions in Boston today. I hope the person (or persons) responsible for this are brought to justice. My thoughts and prayers go out to all the people and families affected by this tragedy.

[bullit]

i apologize, Lake Fred. i was out of line.

[Phillibuster]

No offense, Lake Fred, but I imagine anyone from the Middle East would end up as a "person of interest" there at this point.

He may turn out to be related, but I wouldn't bet the house on that being anything other than a case of Being Arabic Near An Explosion (BANAE, in the tradition of cops pulling over cars for a DWB).

[Phillibuster]

Also, the only source I see for the Person of Interest is Fox (or Sky, which is also owned by NewsCorp). I'd wait for corroboration from at least one other source before believing that - especially given Fox's track record with such things.

[Will]

Bullit, brilliant! The $PLC obviou$ly ha$ nothing to lo$e from blindly blaming what they define a$ "hate group$." Moron$ like you will take their word a$ Go$pel.

[GTown_Dave]

While I appreciate the well-meaning nature of those attempting to disseminate information RE: Boston, I respectfully argue that it is well nigh impossible to do so as events continue to unfold. For example, how long did Richard Jewell get dragged through the mud by an increasingly reactionary media before being forced to sue to clear his name? And that was going on 17 years ago now. The rush to judgment is even more rapid & vicious now. While shameful, this sort of violence is hardly unprecedented. The responsible party or parties will be identified in due time.

[awh]

bullit, what you don't realize is the people that you describe don't hate their country like the small minority of Islamic terrorists who do.

They also understand that provoking the people's ire with another Oklahoma City type attack will only hurt their cause, not help it.

BTW, the Southern Poverty Law Center defines hate groups as anyone who doesn't politically agree with them. Or so it seems.

[Phillibuster]

It's difficult to assess responsibility, surely. I think it best to stick solely with the facts of what occurred (so much as are known).

As I said, I'm perhaps inordinately interested in the JFK Library, for purely personal reasons.

[awh]

buster, I'm not surprised they have a suspect.

Anyone ever get a ticket from a traffic cam in a major city? I have.

Now, with the enhanced security there are cameras all over major cities.

If they have a "person of interest" it may very well be that they have a good reason for it.

OTOH, they could just be "round[ing] up the usual suspects."

[epicurean]

As a Boston resident, I was hoping to find a break from this circus with some Phillies talk. I think you guys are better analysts of baseball than terrorism.

Glad to see that Galvis is not only okay, but able to start after taking that nasty pitch on the hand. That looked awful.

[Phillibuster]

Don't entirely agree with you there, awh, on either front, but that has nothing to do with the facts of the situation, which as of yet have no discernible party responsible.

[Phillibuster]

Epicurean: I haven't heard how any X-Ray or MRI on it went, but I did hear that it was pretty swollen. Hopefully that's gone down a bit.

[awh]

This link:

http://boston.cbslocal.com/2013/04/15/several-hurt-in-explosions-at-boston-marathon-finish-line/

Has this quote:

"Orr is reporting that authorities have recovered surveillance video from the area which shows a man with what looked to be two backpacks near the scene just moments before the blast."

As I mentioned, you probably cannot do anything in public in a major city anywhere anymore - at least in areas that draw crowds - without being under some type of surveillance.

[GTown_Dave]

epicurean: I'm shocked that Galvis doesn't have broken bones in his hand. I thought for certain he'd be missing time. Glad that's not the case, however. I shudder to think how close He-Who-Must-Not-Be-Named is to yet another stint in MLB ...

[epicurean]

Phillibuster: Yeah, I hope so too, and a start for him is a good sign.

[Phillibuster]

awh: traffic cams aren't great at determining anything except the license plate on your car, however. It's why tickets issued as a result of them don't count against your driving record - so long as you pay them.

There definitely are plenty of surveillance cameras around (and, in fact, Lancaster has the highest density of CC cameras linked to the police/public safety of any city in the United States), but they're far from comprehensive (for better or worse), and with the ridiculously huge crowds at a major marathon, I could imagine them sifting through the footage for days even if they did have the perfect angle.

[bullit]

sorry i opened this can of worms.

[Phillibuster]

GTown: To be fair, he's not even on the 40-man. Have to think at least Orr is in the way of him - and possibly some of the waiver-wire retreads too.

Heck, Jermaine Mitchell might even be.

[epicurean]

Yeah, but I think Martinez is next in line on the shortstop depth chart and would probably have to replace an injured Galvis.

Then again, Orr has (curiously) played half of the IronPigs games this year at SS. That could be due to his being blocked at 3B (by Asche) and 2B (by Hernandez).

[Phillibuster]

epicurean: Well, so long as his hand isn't actually messed up too bad... Was it his glove hand or throwing hand?

[GTown_Dave]

Phillibuster: Your lips to God's ears. Personally, I never cease to be horrified when Charlie likes a guy. And Charlie likes that guy. Here's hoping Galvis just stays healthy.

[epicurean]

It was his throwing hand, I think.

[Phillibuster]

So the question is whether the FO thinks that the need for a SS or a 2B will become more important. Considering the injury situation, I imagine 2B would be the more pressing concern, but I can see them being leery of not having a "legit" backup SS too.

[Phillibuster]

GTown: See, I'm not so sure Charlie likes him as much as it seemed. We simply had diddle-all available as backup last year. Yes, we could have brought up some guys, but I don't think they figured there was any point in starting any clocks (or increasing any salaries) when they probably wouldn't have done that much better than him.

[epicurean]

Yeah, I imagine the projected length of the injury would factor into it, too. I don't think you could get away with more than a few games with Frandsen and Orr as your backup shortstop, especially considering the defensive problems they've had in the last year.

Fortunately, it's pure speculation at this point, since all signs point to Galvis being fine.

[Fatalotti]

Is MG a Boston resident? I think I've seen him say that a few times. I hope he's OK.

[awh]

buster, I wasn't saying traffic cams are good sources, but merely using them as an indication that these cameras are everywhere, and many are in places that you cannot see.