Off-season shopping list: Starting pitching

Here's what the Phillies have so far ...

Cliff Lee and Cole Hamels will return to anchor the starting rotation. That's a pretty good starting point and still up there along with the great starting pitching tandems in the major leagues. In 2013, Lee and Hamels were the only tandem in the majors to pile up 220 innings and were one of four pairs to pile up 200-plus innings.

Based on the Baseball-Reference WAR numbers, only the Dodgers (Kershaw and Greinke) and Tigers (Scherzer and Sanchez) had two pitchers with a higher combined WAR than Lee and Hamels.

But what is WAR good for when a team is as top-heavy as the Phils were in 2013? After Hamels and Lee, the Phillies' pitching staff is wide open. 

Here's what they have to work with so far:

* Kyle Kendrick will be tendered a contract, according to general manager Ruben Amaro Jr. It will be Kendrick's final year of arbitration and after getting $7.5 million the last couple of seasons and is in line for a raise despite an up-and-down 2013.

* Roy Halladay also could return, but that's still unknown. Halladay's future has been covered pretty extensively here and other places.

* Miguel Alfredo Gonzalez, the Cuban right-hander, is signed for three seasons and reportedly throws six different pitches. But whether Gonzalez is ready for the big leagues or needs some polishing in the minors remains to be seen. Gonzalez is 27, so if he's going to start in the minors it's going to be brief.

Otherwise, the Phillies have 22-year old Jonathan Pettibone, who made 18 starts in 2013 and 24-year old Ethan Martin, who appears to be headed for a role in the bullpen. In the minors, lefty Adam Morgan is a well-regarded prospect and then there is Jesse Biddle, the organization's top pitching prospect. Biddle will be 22 next week and appears to be a year away from cracking the rotation.

In free agency, there are plenty of solid choices for a team to rebuild the back end of a rotation. Though there is no real must-have/stop-the-presses starters set to test the market, there are a few interesting names out there.

Scott Feldman, Josh Johnson, Scott Kazmir, Ubaldo Jimenez, Edison Volquez and Tim Lincecum are among the more interesting. Shoot, the Phillies could put together a reunion with some of the free-agent pitchers that once spent time in Philly. Bruce Chen, Freddy Garcia, Gavin Floyd and Roy Oswalt will be free agents ... 

Shudder the thought.

Comments

[clout]

Every name on that FA list will be ridiculously overpriced and extremely risky, but one or two of them will prove to be great signings (a la Liriano.)

[clout]

Alex Castellanos isn't much of a prospect, but there is a contingent here (call them Kratz-heads) who think that gaudy Triple A stats at ages 26-32 mean you'd be a fine MLB player.

[Phillibuster]

Clout: He put up gaudier AAA stats at 25 than 26.

That said, I don't think anybody's saying he'll be anything more than the 4th/5th OF. It'd just be nice to get Ruf-esque (call it Rufous?) production from a guy who can actually play corner outfield.

[clout]

Philli: Yes it would. But it won't happen. K rate is telling for older minor league power guys like this. Ruf struck out in 19% of his PAs as a minor leaguer. Castellanos is above 23%.

[Phillibuster]

Since 2010, Ruf has K'd in 22.4% of all MiLB ABs. Castellanos has K'd in 25.7% of MiLB ABs in a similar time frame.

3.3% ain't nothin', but neither is their difference on D.

[Willard Preacher]

Is this "off-season shopping list" going to be the first in a series, or do we really think that the offense shouldn't be the first damn thing in need of an upgrade?

[Kendrick Appreciation Society]

If the Phillies do, in fact, tender an offer to KK (and I'm not sure that's the wisest way to spend $10M), then three spots in the rotation are locked up: Hamels, Lee, Kendrick.

I don't think Gonzalez starts in the minors unless he's a disaster in spring. So that's 4 spots locked up.

There's little reason why the Phillies wouldn't just hand the 5th spot to Pettibone who was adequate in that role at age 22.

It's possible Biddle may be ready sometime in 2014 to move into the rotation. I'm not optimistic about Morgan, but I suppose he could show something in spring training to be the "6th starter."

The Phillies have holes to fill in free agency and I don't think that money will be spent on a legit free agent pitcher.

[MG]

If KK is going to be back, Phils will be searching for a cheap signing here ala Lannan.

I dumped on Lannan but understood why Amaro made it last offseason and frankly it was a well-structured deal.

I just really hope that the Phils don't resign Halladay especially to a moderate level signing.

[Phillibuster]

KAS: I have to think that any KK contract is going to be in the 2-year, $8.5MM range. Maybe 3/$11? He's only set to earn $6.6MM in arb, according to MLBTR's (eerily accurate) arb calculator, so there's no way they'll pay him around that much/year for a 2-year deal.

[pblunts]

I still think Lee ends up going for some prospects and/or an established bat to also free up some dollars. Maybe Lee gets enough prospects back coupled with a few of ours to pry Stanton away from the Marlins. But I doubt it so roob the boob can get his latest fixation in pinstripes.

[Willard Preacher]

I hear that Doc has been pain-free, building velocity/strength, and feels 10 years younger. Rumor is, he intends to show up to camp in the best shape of his life (along with Ryan Howard). If you don't believe me, just ask him or anyone in the Front Office or on the Med Staff when the inevitable signing comes to fruition.

[Cole Handsome]

My personal cause is to trade Cliff Lee for Clay Buchholtz, which will drop the Phillies future contract commitments (potentially) by $58 million.

2014 29 Boston Red Sox $7,700,000
2015 30 Boston Red Sox $12,000,000
2016 31 Boston Red Sox *$13,000,000 $13M Team Option, $245k Buyout
2017 32 Boston Red Sox *$13,500,000 $13.5M Team Option, $500k Buyout

[Kendrick Appreciation Society]

That's right... no way KK gets to $10M. For someone reason, I thought he made more this year. He's probably in line for between $6-$7M. Not the worst deal.

[Phillibuster]

KAS: The article was somewhat misleadingly-worded (he made $7.5 over 2 years, not per year), so that's probably it.

[mm]

Hopefully the arbritrator in kendrick's hearing ignores the 8.5 million Joe Blanton made in his age 31 season.

[mm]

My bad, Kendrick will be 30. And unfortunatley, blanton made 10.5 that year. Good God what a horrible contract that was.

[PLM]

Dont think Biddle will be ready next year. Next in line for a audition assuming he is health will be Morgan. It would make sense for the Phillies to bring in someone else in case Petti or the Cuban implodes. PS...Not the Zach Miner org filler types...

[PLM]

I would only consider calling up Biddle for a tea cup in September or whatever its called. Unless he really breaks through next year or some type of emergency spot start. In that case i would probably default to Martin first.

[GBrettfan]

Really good piece, one of those that makes you feel good about being a baseball fan.

It starts off talking about Iglesias' impressive catch, raising applause from Ortiz, the man who thought he'd have a hit, but it goes on from there to talk about some great moments between competitors appreciating the playoffs throughout the years.

http://mlb.mlb.com/news/article/mlb/richard-justice-baseball-has-history-of-gracious-acts-toward-opponents?ymd=20131018&content_id=63106664&vkey=news_mlb

[GBrettfan]

Rumor has it that the Yankees are willing to spend as much as $300 million this winter.

David Murphy ‏@ByDavidMurphy 5m
Yankees, Mets, Cubs...Phillies, LP out of its league RT @HardballTalk: Are the Yanks preparing for a shopping spree? http://wp.me/p14QSL-26ii

[NEPP]

Tanaka alone will probably be close to half of that money given that he's expected to cost $75 million in his posting fee alone. Figure on another $50-60 million minimum to sign. Sure he's not Yu Darvish but everyone is itching for him because he keeps getting called "the best Japanese pitcher since Yu Darvish".

Thus, he'll get paid.

Tanaka and Cano alone would be nearly all of that I'd bet...

[GBrettfan]

Cardinals up 2-0, still batting, in the 3rd. Looks like a rematch of either the '06 or the '07 WS.

[NEPP]

As long as the Dodgers lose this series, I'm good. I cant stand the Dodgers.

[GBrettfan]

I decided to call my dad and offer the obligatory congratulations early this time. Get it out of the way. Are the Cardinals men or machines?

[NEPP]

Kershaw: 3 IP, 81 pitches, 7 H, 4 ER, 2 BB, 5 SO

Rough outing for him...reminds me of the Game 1 of the 2009 NLCS where we rocked him.

[NEPP]

No way a team could blow a 4 run lead in a must win playoff game...well, at least a team where Cliff Lee isn't pitching.

[GBrettfan]

I know the Dodgers can come back, NEPP, but I figure it's a decent bet that the Cardinals go on to win.

Cliff Lee blowing that 4-run lead was so disappointing.

[NEPP]

Lee blowing that lead is easily the most disappointing moment in Phillies history for the past 5 seasons. I really think we would have won the WS that year if we made it past that red hot Cards team.

[bullit]

clayton is pitching like his cousin, doug.

[can_of_corn]

I wonder how this game might impact Kerahaw's CY chances.

[NEPP]

In case you were wondering as to a big part of why our future is so bleak right now...here's a list of Phillies draft picks that have accumulated at least 5.0 bWAR from 2003 to Present:

Michael Bourn: 22.3
Brad Ziegler: 9.6
Kyle Kendrick: 5.8

Obviously, Bourn was traded before he became an established GG winning CF...but that trade led directly to a WS win so its hard to get upset. Ziegler was released after 1 minor league season because they thought he sucked and KK has been a serviceable 4/5 starter for several years.

But that's it...in 11 draft seasons. Granted, its too early to tell on the more recent seasons but that dearth of impact draftees is killing them right now.

To compare to another team's drafting record since then...let's go with the Cardinals:

Daric Barton: 9.0
Brendan Ryan: 15.9
Colby Rasmus: 12.6
John Jay: 8.6
Allen Craig: 7.0
Matt Carpenter: 7.4

This is just guys they signed...so you cant count Max Scherzer or Ian Kennedy, two guys they drafted but weren't able to sign...the only guy of note we have in that period would be AJ Griffin. This also doesnt count a good handful of 3-4 WAR guys that simply are too young to have hit 5 WAR yet...like Michael Wacha and several other of their younger pitchers/hitters.

Just ridiculous how well they've drafted in the past decade and how poorly we have in comparison.

[NEPP]

@can: It can't, the award votes were made right after the regular season ended so the playoffs dont affect them either way.

[PLM]

I concur but then again we could of purposely lost to not let the Cards in Nepp.

[can_of_corn]

Thanks NEPP. I should have remembered that. But wow, how bad must he feel right now.

[GTown_Dave]

Turns out watching L.A. lose the NLCS is quite enjoyable even if the team to which they're losing isn't the Phillies.

[Conway Twitty]

So far, we've eliminated cowbells, the chop, and beachballs. I'm running out of things to root against.

[NEPP]

In that same time period, the Red Sox have 9 picks with a bWAR =/> 5.0 and the Yankees have 8. The As and Rays also have 8 or 9.

The gap increases significantly if you drop it down to 2.0 bWAR as we were below average there as well.

Whatever internal rating system our Org is using is clearly substandard.

[NEPP]

A Tigers/Cardinals series or a RedSox/Cardinals series would be good baseball between 2 very established franchises that do things the right way...particularly the RedSox/Cardinals as both are pretty model franchises.

Better than the Dodgers trying to buy a WS at least. The Tigers are trying to buy one too but its more desperation from a very old owner who just wants 1 ring before he dies.

[Sil]

Conway: the squirrel. Enough said.

[GTown_Dave]

Conway: Beards.

[GTown_Dave]

The only thing that could make this any better is Nelson Muntz running onto the field, sticking his finger right in Puig's face & saying "Ha ha!"

[Conway Twitty]

Dave: Sorry, I've got one myself.

[GTown_Dave]

Conway: Yeah, so do I at the moment. But our beards aren't gimmicky BS!

(Honestly, it has nothing to do w/ beards. It's NE sports fans. The beards are a convenient target, though.)

[GTown_Dave]

Amazing how good a team can be when they're able to spot & develop talent.

[derekcarstairs]

I have nothing but admiration for the Cards, a well-run organization with few breaks in the last 90 years.

I do not feel the same way about baseball's other great franchise, the Yankees, since the bombastic George Steinbrenner took over the team and just threw money around in vulgar fashion.

[NEPP]

Since 1995 (Picks period regardless of whether they were signed):

Phillies: 19
Red Sox: 24
Rays: 24 (didnt draft in 1995 though)
Cardinals: 20
Athletics: 26
Yankees: 14
Braves: 22
Dodgers: 17
Nats: 18
Pirates: 22
Royals: 12
Tigers: 16
Reds: 17
Angels: 22
Astros: 14
BlueJays: 21
Brewers: 18
Cubs: 19
DBacks: 23
Giants: 14
Indians: 12
Mariners: 18
Marlins: 13
Mets: 17
Orioles: 12
Padres: 12
Rockies: 20
Twins: 19
White Sox: 18

As you can see, if you include their golden age of drafting (the Myers, Howard, Rollins, Utley, etc years), the Phillies stack up pretty well...its the last 10 drafts where it hasn't been pretty for them and we're seeing it on the field as a result.

This doesnt even begin to get into their historic lack of international talent due to not spending in Latin America but it does show a part of their recent issues.

[NEPP]

# of 5.0 bWAR or higher players since 2004: 0...ZERO.

Just brutal.

[GBrettfan]

I have nothing against Puig, especially if the Cardinals were going to be all self-righteous like the Braves. Maybe I simply missed all the plays where he was being obnoxious, I don't know.

9-0 is a pretty embarrassing score with which to go down in the NLCS.

I'm still rooting for whichever AL team makes it to the WS. For Detroit, it would be nice to win after losing to St. Louis in 2006 and to the Giants last year, and for the Red Sox, I'd be happy for Shane (and have nothing against his teammates, either).

[GBrettfan]

NEPP, how 'bout you mail that info to the Phillies, because I think they're the last to realize they have a problem with drafting/scouting/development. You're preaching to the choir here, I believe.

[GBrettfan]

(I don't mean that flippantly.)

[Iceman]

Puig has done nothing to deserve any scorn. God forbid a guy has fun on the field. He's young and he'll hopefully learn to cut down on the mental mistakes.

Still glad to see the Dodgers go down, though. I find it increasingly difficult to root against St. Louis, and if they end up playing Boston, that will be the easiest decision on who to root for in a World Series (non-Giants or Phillies related) in quite a while.

[PhxPhilly]

Hopefully KK costs less than $6M then pitches like the first half. I'd slot him as #4.

MAG has not pitched much in the last few years. I cannot imagine him lasting over 150 innings in 2014. So I think Phillies should plan on him being a reliever, especially at his salary.

Somebody needs to be signed to be #3.

Then for depth, I'd sign a high risk guy to be #5 with Pettibone in the wings when that guys fails.

Most likely Phillies will need another starter about midseason and MAG could be moved into the rotation.

[aksmith]

If KK were healthy, tendering him would be a no brainer. But he ended the season injured, as did Pettibone. And Morgan's shoulder is a huge question mark.

This team very likely needs two starters who are not dog crap, ala Lannan. MAG should probably be eased in. No idea what his elbow problem is, but the odds of a healthy season with the Phillies track record seem slim. They just aren't lucky.

Rube really needs to take the original MAG money and add a little more to it, and get Tanaka. If he's a number three, all it costs is money. And his Japanese numbers were otherworldy. There is no excuse to go into another season praying for the health of damaged pitchers.

[derekcarstairs]

If Kendrick is in the rotation, then the FO will not be making a serious attempt at post-season play in 2014. Same with Pettibone.

[derekcarstairs]

The Phils' highest priority should be to build for the future. Among other things, that means not trading prospects unless the return is good, young talent. It also means not losing any draft picks by signing FAs who receive QOs.

[derekcarstairs]

Building for the future does not mean the Phils cannot be competitive in 2014.

To be competitive, the team needs to improve in all departments - pitching, hitting, and fielding. Currently, the team is at or near the bottom in all three areas.

The only sure things for the rotation are Lee and Hamels. To reverse fortune, the Phils need good performance from the other three starters. With luck, MAG may be one of the three.

The other two could be drawn from a pool that includes Tanaka, Jimenez, Josh Johnson and maybe Garza. Three of these four come with question marks, but those three have the highest upside. IMO, for the Phils to be successful in 2014, Lee and Hamels must pitch like no. 1s, and the other three must pitch like no. 3s or better.

My guess is that Tanaka and Johnson would have the lowest AAVs for luxury tax purposes. If Johnson is healthy, he could perform like a no. 2. With luck, MAG and Tanaka could pitch like no. 3s. So, with a lot of luck, the Phils' rotation would have two no. 1s, a no. 2, and two number 3s. Without a lot of luck, any one, two or all three of these additions could flop or just be OK, in which case the team doesn't make the playoffs.

Because of the presence of Lee and Hamels, I think that the rotation is where the team can make the greatest progress. The Phils already have the no. 1s. They need to add some 3s or better.

[derekcarstairs]

Improving the Phils' hitting significantly will be difficult because of existing contracts.

The biggest change to improve the infield would be to go to a first-base platoon with Howard and Ruf. Rollins and Utley will be back. Looking to the future, Asche needs to be given a long look at third. If Asche continues to develop, that would also give the Phils' better IF production.

Bringing Hernandez and Galvis off the bench should also boost IF production, but that's about it for the IF in 2014.

The team should re-sign Chooch to catch.

I would not sign McCann. He will be expensive; he will require a long-term contract; there's risk that McCann will not be able to remain behind the plate for the duration of his contract; and he will receive a QO from the Braves, which would cost the Phils their second-round pick.

The team can make its biggest offensive splash in the OF, but at a cost. Ellsbury, Beltran, Cruz, Granderson and Hart are the names. I am inclined to think Beltran will re-up with the Cards, but he's a guy I would like for a couple of years. Ellsbury would have the biggest impact, both offensively and defensively.

Some, if not many, of the OF FAs will receive QOs. I would be reluctant to sign any OF that does, but there may be no other choice.

If the Phils were to sign Ellsbury, they might also sign Hart or trade for another corner OF since Revere lacks the punch the team needs from its corner OFs.

I think it's possible for the 2014 team to move up a few notches with these moves, but the team will probably still be in the bottom third offensively.

With the Youngs gone for a full season, the defense should improve some. Minimizing Ruf's appearances in the OF should also help, but OF defense will probably still be a weakness. If they were to sign Ellsbury, CF defense would be strong again, but the corners may still be weak.

[dons]

They don't need no stinkin OF. They have MM

[Rob]

We can knock the Phillies draft record and farm system. Imagine this '14 line-up sans pitching. All except Revere are home grown. Hopefully, it could produce a lot of runs. Your FA money then goes to SP.
1b Howard
2b Utley
ss Rollins/Galvis
3b Franco/Asche
1f Ruf
cf Revere/Hernandez
rf Brown
c Ruiz

[Chris in VT]

Well, Kershaw's performance last night didn't help my argument that he could become one of the all timers...ugly outing in an elimination game.

[Chris in VT]

Rob - First of all, that lineup assumes perfect health (HUGE assumption at this point).

Second of all, even if they all stay healthy all year, that's more than likely still a below-average lineup offensively and defensively.

[cut_fastball]

Chris in VT, re: Kershaw. Agreed. An absolute shocker. Games such as last nights are where the Schilling's; the (Jack) Morris's et. al. really shined.

I really wish Doc was part of the quick list of money pitchers, but that's really complicated....

[Iceman]

What's complicated about it?

[aksmith]

When Doc got to the post season, he certainly looked money to me.

[cut_fastball]

Oh, yea. I flat out forgot how many rings Doc has. Let me look it up.

[cut_fastball]

I hate to show any derision whatsoever regarding Doc Halladay. However, I believe he fibbed about his injury in '12 - torpedoing that season (giving the Phils no shot at healthy replacement while he could have been worked on that year).

It really sickens me how the '11 team was flat out shut down in Game 5 of the National League Division Series. I hate tough luck losses; I'd rather have seen Doc lose 11-0 than 1-0. What a brutal way to exit the playoffs. Howard's injury was the nightmare you can't wake up from.

It's my WAG that Halladay's got less than a 1 in 100 shot to start any playoff game in the future. Until the "red face" syndrome is diagnosed and successfully treated, I think he's done as a ML pitcher.

[GTown_Dave]

Halladay has been excellent in what little Postseason experience he has. Kershaw, on the other hand, has been somewhat less than the sum of his hype. And as much as I dislike Schilling, he'll most likely remain one of the best Postseason pitchers any of us will ever see.

[Iceman]

I'm not sure what rings have to do with it. Schilling has those rings because his team scored runs for him. Why is Halladay excluded from the list because his team choked in 2011 (and to a smaller extent in 2010)?

Schilling only has one of those rings because after he gave up a go-ahead HR in Game 7 against the Yankees, his team picked him up in the 9th. That doesn't make his accomplishment any less significant. He just played on a better team.

Halladay and Lee are both excellent playoff pitchers that played on teams that weren't good enough to win the World Series. It isn't that complicated. Not sure how much better they could've pitched in 2009-2011 (Game 2 NLDS notwithstanding) to earn the designation of 'money.'

[Chris in VT]

cut_fastball

Player A has a career postseason ERA of 3.80, 1.245 WHIP, 3.1 BB/9, 3.2 K/9 and a BB/K ratio of 2.00

Player B has a 2.37 career postseaon ERA, with a .737 WHIP, 1.1 BB/9, 8.4 K/9, and a BB/K ratio of 7.00

Which one is the "money" pitcher in the playoffs? Which would you rather have starting game 7 for you?

[Chris in VT]

Just noticed a typo...Player A has a 6.2 K/9, not 3.2

[Iceman]

Jack Morris (Player A) had one legendary start in Game 7 of the World Series that was really only legendary because his counterpart, John Smoltz, was almost equally great. So Morris got to pitch the 10th. I doubt we'll ever see that again and it is one hell of an accomplishment.

The rest of his postseason career was pedestrian and his legend (and hall of fame case) is constantly lifted up by that one game. Halladay (and Lee) are the better pitchers in the playoffs by far, in their limited opportunities.

I won't give an argument on Schilling.

[Iceman]

Forgot how ridiculous Lee's playoff numbers are.

2.52 ERA in 82 innings. Allowed just two HR in those 82 innings and has a 8.9 K/BB (just a ridiculous ratio). He has more complete games than HR allowed in the playoffs. When you put into context that those numbers were actually better before his last 3 playoff starts (all mediocre to poor efforts), I'm not sure how much more 'money' you can get. Certainly more 'money' than Jack Morris.

Michael Wacha is on his way to some numbers like that if his run keeps continuing. Anyone think Mozeliak would have been as courageous as Rizzo to Strasburg him before October started?

[norbertods]

Don't know how anyone could argue against schilling. His postseason ERA is over a run lower than in the regular season. Also, call me crazy, but I'd take Hamels over Lee and Doc. Other than his abysmal 09 playoffs, he's been great. World Series MVP doesn't hurt his case either.

[GTown_Dave]

norbertods: You're crazy. In a practically even number of Postseason IP (82 to 81.2), Lee's numbers are unquestionably better than those of Hamels. The real shame of Halladay's career is that we'll never know how he would have performed given a similar number of Postseason GS.

[norbertods]

Dave: Fair enough. Lee has been lights out in his postseason career. I guess my lasting memory, however unfair, is of Lee blowing a 4 run lead. Hamels then proceeded to shut out the same Cardinals team over 6 innings. Doc, in an unfairly short postseason career, was just as good as he was over the rest of his career. I'm just partial to Hamels.

[GTown_Dave]

norbertods: Nothing wrong w/ being partial. Certainly I am in the case of Lee. That said, I do believe Hamels' reputation has benefited from his having a great Postseason when the Phils won it all, whereas Lee's equally great '09 Postseason ended in defeat for the Phillies.

[Iceman]

http://crashburnalley.com/2013/10/19/2013-phillies-report-card-john-mayberry/

Agree with pretty much everything in that article, though I would go F on the grade.

[PLM]

Bruce Chen seems like the type guy Rube will give a flyer to just because he is old and been in the league for many years. Also had a decent season which of course Rube will automatically think he'll replicate. These 3 criteria get Amaro nice and hot.

[MG]

Really hard to argue about great postseason starters because so many great pitchers only had 1 postseason to shine.

3 starters of the last 25 years that come to mind right away to me with impressive postseason performances (multiple appearances) are Schilling, Smoltz, and D. Stewart.

[GTown_Dave]

PLM: You forgot the most important criteria for being employed by the Phillies: having previously been employed by the Phillies. Chen is a lock.

[PLM]

That is true G-town. Although he probably come back as a pitching coach in the near future or something of the sorts.

[NEPP]

Regardless of W/L record, I think Sanford Braun has them all beat:

8 G, 7 GS, 57 IP, 36 H, 11 BB, 0.825 WHIP, 1.7 BB/9, 9.6 SO/9, 5.55 SO/BB.

4 CG, 2 SHO in those 7 starts...somehow he went just 4-3.

[GTown_Dave]

NEPP: Poor guy. Winning a ring in 3 of the 4 World Series in which he played probably went a long way toward easing the pain of not getting credit for those W's, though.

[NEPP]

LOL...true. Its just hard to believe his offense was that bad.

His 3 loses:

6 IP, 1 ER
6 IP, 1 ER
7 IP, 1 ER

What a bum. All 4 wins were CG.

[Chris in VT]

Hamels really only had 1 bad postseason, if you take out '09 (yes that's cherry picking, but he really wasn't right that entire year), his playoff numbers are spectacular.

And Lee hasn't been the same postseason stud since the '10 World Series. It's probably just the numbers normalizing over a larger sample size, to be fair. It's virtually impossible to be as good as he was in '09 over the long haul.

[NEPP]

Hamels had a WS hangover for all of 09 and it probably cost us a repeat WS. Had he been even solid instead of crap, we probably ride Lee/Hamels to another WS.

What could have been...

[NEPP]

Flipside: If AJ Burnett hadnt made a deal with Satan to pitch the game of his life in the 09 WS, we also probably win in 6 instead of lose in 6.

[MG]

NEPP - That and the Phils losing Game 5 in NLCS. Still feel that team would have won the Series if they had won Game 5.

[NEPP]

If Burnett doesnt pitch that game, we go home to CBP up 2-0 in the series.

So damn frustrating. It just shows how special 08 was when you think of our playoff frustrations in the next 3 seasons afterwards.

[GTown_Dave]

I go back & forth debating whether '09 or '10 bothers me more, although '10 usually "wins". If only the FO had sprung for both Halladay & Lee that year ...

I don't even think about '11. I knew the Phillies were doomed after the way they completely shut down during the stretch, mustering just enough strength for a meaningless sweep to secure a meaningless regular season team record, which soon proved their undoing. Hell, if they had just bothered to go better than 1-3 in their Sept. series vs. St. Louis, who knows ...

Sh*t. And now I'm thinking about it again.

[Chris in VT]

I was expecting that game out of Burnett, TBH. The Phils' hitters had a terrible game plan against him.

A solid Hamels performance would have won us that series though, no doubt. A solid Lidge performance could have also, though. Losing game 4 that way was just atrocious.

[NEPP]

2010 bothers me for that reason and because we were simply the better team and we choked against SF. 2011 bothers me too for a ton of reasons as once again we choked and our idiotic arrogance had us pave the path for our opponent to make the playoffs over the Braves (who we would have steamrolled had they made it to the NLCS and we matched up well against the DBacks (our opponent had we not let the Cards into the post-season).

Oh well, at least we won in 08 (with the worst team of the bunch on paper ironically).

[cut_fastball]

Is it possible that 25 of 40 on the Cardinals' 40-man roster are "home grown"? Someone who's usually right about those things cited that stat. Geesh.

[NEPP]

***I was expecting that game out of Burnett, TBH. The Phils' hitters had a terrible game plan against him.***

I knew going in that if he could locate his curve, we were screwed. If he had his typical command problems like he had been having up to that point, we would have won. He simply pitched the game of his life that night.

He had a 5.27 ERA that post-season including that start. Take that start out and it balloons to 6.64 with 14 BB in 20.1 IP. He was basically terrible all post season other than that otherworldly outing.

Its one thing to get hammered by the staff Ace...its quite another to see Burnett in that season just obliterate our offense.

[NEPP]

****Is it possible that 25 of 40 on the Cardinals' 40-man roster are "home grown"? ***

Probably but it might be misleading given that most of that 15 not on the 25 man are likely drafted prospects so its not really a major deal. A huge chunk of their current 25 man is from recent drafts (as I noted yesterday when I talked about their drafting success since 2003 which is the mirror opposite of our own complete lack of success).

[GTown_Dave]

What really gets me about '09 is friggin' Pedro Martinez. Watching the Yankees slap the crap out of him yet again was sickening. If he had managed to show up in even one of his World Series starts ...

[cut_fastball]

Thanks, NEPP. It's my guess the Cards are the "new normal". That makes the Phils about oh, say 6 years away from being about 2 years away - if the limited partnership focuses on home-grown talent. Like, starting tomorrow.

Geesh, twice.

[cut_fastball]

GTown - I'm still outraged over the 130 pitches old man Chollie let Pedro throw on September 13 '09 versus the Mutts. Sure he went 8 in a 1-0 win. Regardless, Manual had to know Martinez was integral to the post-season and Pedro was 37-freaking years old.

WTF was wrong with Manual? How does he get an eternal "free pass"?He was a hitting guru, and his last playoff appearance was a 1-0 loss. He also was completely clueless in managing his pitching staff - I can't begin to describe the "gut" bullpen decisions. Damn.

[NEPP]

Lance Lynn
Shelby Miller
Joe Kelly
Trevor Rosenthal
Seth Maness
Michael Wacha
Kevin Siegrist
Adron Chambers
Daniel Descalso
Kolton Wong
Matt Adams
Matt Carpenter
Tony Cruz
Pete Kozma
Yadier Molina
Shane Robinson
Jon Jay
Tyler Lyons
Jason Motte*
Jorge Rondon
Keith Butler
Jaime Garcia*
Eric Fornataro
Sam Freeman
Fernando Salas
John Gast
Jermaine Curtis
Ryan Jackson
Audry Perez
Allen Craig

I count 30 but that includes 2 that are on the 60 man DL and thus not on the 40 man...

Still impressive.

[GTown_Dave]

cut_fastball: I remember that game well. I'm still surprised Charlie didn't leave him in for the 9th, too. I will not miss watching that man fumble pitching decisions.