The manager the Phillies allowed to get away

With the news that Jim Leyland has called it quits as the manager of the Detroit Tigers, it’s fun to reminisce about what might have been had the Phillies gone the way we all expected in the Fall of 2004.

The last time the Phillies had a bona fide managerial search, the job came down to two choices. Either Leyland was going to get the gig as Phils’ manager or it was going to be Charlie Manuel. Sure, there were others who interviewed for the job, like Don Baylor, Buddy Bell and Terry Pendleton among others.

But Leyland was the name. After sitting out for four straight seasons, the fact that Leyland wanted to get back into managing and he wanted to make his return in Philadelphia was significant.

And make no mistake about it … Leyland really, really wanted the Phillies’ job. So much so that he ended up on first-name basis with many of the local writers because he returned phone calls.

Seriously, how could the Phillies not want Jim Leyland?

Let me explain why they didn’t hire him …

Apparently the ideas Leyland expressed to president David Montgomery and then GM Ed Wade were just a little too harebrained. Especially the ones about the corner outfielders – remember that? When asked how he would improve the Phillies, Leyland didn’t give that standard answer about how the team was put together well and just needed some luck in order to get to the postseason.

Leyland actually suggested that the Phillies were a tragically flawed team. He said the Phillies had too many strikeouts in the corner outfield positions, and that they needed a new center fielder, third baseman and catcher.

And then Leyland excused himself from the interview with Monty and Wade, went out to the CVS on Broad St. for a pack of smokes and came back to resume the interview. When Leyland returned, Wade told him he should not cancel his appointment to interview for the Mets’ managerial opening.

Shortly after that, the Phillies hired Manuel, came within a game of the wild card, fired Wade, and hired Pat Gillick. A few months later, Gillick traded right fielder Bobby Abreu, third baseman David Bell, and tried as hard as he could to get left fielder Pat Burrell to waive his no-trade clause. Gillick also allowed Mike Lieberthal to limp away via free agency, traded Jim Thome and found a center fielder who would run through the fence.

Maybe Leyland’s ideas weren’t so harebrained after all.

Leyland didn’t manage in 2005 like he had hoped. But in 2006 he was offered the job with the Tigers. At that point, the Tigers were two years removed from a 119-loss season, averaged 96 losses for the decade and had just two winning seasons since 1988.

Leyland took the Tigers to the World Series in his first year and got them back there last year with two other trips to the playoffs mixed in with three consecutive AL Central titles.

And how did Leyland get the job with the Tigers? He told them how they needed to be fixed.

Anyway, remembering back to the day Leyland interviewed with the Phillies, he wasn’t shy about sharing his ideas. When asked what his job as a manager should be, Leyland didn’t hold back:

“When you have veteran players who buy into your thought process, it eliminates a lot of nitpicking,” he said. “The veterans set the tone. Leadership is production. Putting winning numbers on the board, that's leadership. The manager is supposed to be the leader. That's not ego talking, that's just the way it is. I've said it all my life, you're either the victim or the beneficiary of your players' performance. That's as simple as this job is.”

And what elements make up a good team?

“[It's about] trying to create an atmosphere that's comfortable,” Leyland said in November of 2004. “I'm not as big on chemistry as a lot of other managers. If it works, it's wonderful. I've managed teams that ate together, played together, prayed together, and we got the [bleep] kicked out of us, and I managed some that punched each other once in a while and we won. It's getting the best out of talent. They're not all going to like me. Hopefully, they will, but I doubt it. There's nothing wrong with that, as long as you're working toward the same goal -- win.”

The Phillies ended up doing pretty well with the guy they hired instead of Leyland. Still, it’s fun to wonder about how things would have been had it gone the other way.

Comments

[LorecorE]

bullit: "i would trade brown before i would trade ruf."

Are you saying that because DOM would also give you more return, or do you believe the Ruf is a better player than DOM going forward?

numerous people: "DOM only showed up for a month"

He had a OPS over .765 in every month except April and September.

[Dickie Thong]

Interesting article on the Cardinals. Not sure if this was posted already.

http://www.stltoday.com/sports/columns/bernie-miklasz/bernie-what-it-means-to-be-a-cardinal/article_afc4c8db-5d9d-5815-9c14-e3e77721a50b.html

[LorecorE]

"Since playoff expansion in 1995 there have been 21 100+ win teams. Only 6 made it to the World Series, and only 2 won it."

What a terrible attempt at trying to make a point, despite clout claiming this "proves" something.

7 of the last 19 seasons haven't even had a 100 game winner.

Of those 12 possible postseasons where a 100 game winner could make the world series, they did 6 times, or in other words 50%.

[Bob]

"ME" is the Phillies way. Think about it.

[LorecorE]

MG: Dodgers likely out of the Cano running - they finalized a deal with the cuban 2B Guerrero (after original deal fell thru) for 4yr $28M.

[NEPP]

The real Q/A was more about Production and Leyland's inability to define it properly for the Phillies FO.

It's all about Production.

Also, to be fair, UC has just as many WS titles as Leyland.

[LorecorE]

Leyland: "Leadership is production"

He never stood a chance.

[Chris in VT]

Reid was actually a pretty good football coach but with a few glaring weaknesses (fondness for picking friends over more qualified coaches, weak clock management). Other than that, he's always been considered a very good NFL coach. I always thought it funny how much Eagles fans hated him considering just how bad some of his predecessors were (Kotite and Rhodes come to mind).

Posted by: NEPP | Tuesday, October 22, 2013 at 06:53 AM

Not to start an NFL discussion, but Reid's biggest downfall as the Eagles' coach was the job he did as the Eagles' GM/President. He had 4 straight horrendous drafts, and made multiple errors in evaluating talent (Brandon Graham over Earl Thomas with a desperate need at S, Danny Watkins, Jaiqwan Jarret, etc etc etc). And his act had worn thin in Philly, with the fans and media, and the players seemed to have stopped listening to him.

I'm not surprised at all he's succeeding with a fresh start in KC and the slew of talented players he inherited.

[Phillibuster]

Bullit: Darin Ruf is "built for home runs?" Really? Because prior to 2012 he wasn't hitting many of them... And in both 2012 and 2013 the vast majority of his HRs came in a single month (August - coincidentally, the warmest month of the baseball season).

[GTown_Dave]

Phillibuster: I don't know if build has anything to do w/ it, but Ruf has hit a HR every 16.7 AB, & Dom a HR every 23.8 AB. Ruf has also been better at finding a way to get on base, whatever the means. And so far as the weather goes, it's difficult to hit HRs in March, April, May & June when the FO hasn't allowed you to play in those months.

[LorecorE]

chris: very well put

[LorecorE]

gtown: do you think Ruf is a better player than DOM moving forward?

[GTown_Dave]

Chris in VT: You're exactly right. It's amazing how good Reid looks when he's coaching a team full of guys that he didn't choose. For years I dreaded the NFL Draft because I knew the Eagles would out-clever themselves & make us fans miserable (trading the Sean Lee pick to Dallas & taking Danny Watkins is one move I will never forgive). And I imagine the game management weaknesses that NEPP mentioned will come back to bite him once the Playoffs begin.

[Phillibuster]

GTown: Look at his MiLB numbers. They bear out this trend.

HR #s in:
2009 (Rk/A-) - 3
2010 (A/A+) - 9
2011 (A+) - 17

HR #s in 2012:
April (AA) - 2
May (AA) - 7
June (AA) - 5
July (AA) - 4
August (AA) - 20
September (AA/MLB) - 1

HR #s In 2013:
April (AAA) - 4
May (AAA) - 1
June (AAA) - 2
July (AAA/MLB) - 2
August (MLB) - 9
September - 1

[GTown_Dave]

LorecorE: I don't think we've seen enough to decide. However, seeing as how the Phils aren't going anywhere, anyway, I wish Ruf would get the same 900+ AB MLB tryout that Brown has gotten. He's already doing the things it has taken Brown parts of 4 seasons to do, & w/out exchanging OBP for power, or vice versa.

[Phillibuster]

As to Ruf's OBP, let's not pretend that his numbers weren't boosted by a .436 BaBIP in July 2013.

Nor that his best power month (August, unsurprisingly) didn't see him post a .305 OBP.

I'm not saying that Brown is great. He's not. However, I think he's a more complete player than Ruf (he's bad at corner outfield D, but he's better there than Ruf is anywhere, even 1B). Overall, if I had to choose one or the other - and I could ignore injury concerns - I'd probably take Brown.

With injury concerns it becomes a much closer thing, and would depend on how my team was currently constructed.

[GTown_Dave]

Phillibuster: And that may well carry over. Or maybe it wouldn't. All I'm saying is you can't criticize Ruf for not hitting MLB HR in Mar-Jun when he hasn't ever played Major League ball in those months.

[Phillibuster]

GTown: I didn't say "MLB."

[LorecorE]

gtown: Ruf got a Sept call up the very first year he had a good year in the minors, and then was given 300 PA the very next year. Thats more PA than DOM was given in his first two seasons combined.

How can you sit there and call for Ruf to be given the same chance as DOM, when he already has been given the better one to start his career?

[Phillibuster]

Also, for posterity's sake...

2011 HR #s in:
April - 2
May - 1
June - 2
July - 6
August - 6
September - 0

[can_of_corn]

Interesting story on the Philies' rejection of Leyland.

Reading about former managers makes me wonder about future MLB managers in general and the career path from player to eventual manager. Of all current/recently retired players, which ones do we think have potential to eventually manage and the connections to make it happen?

[LorecorE]

I would pick Darin Ruf in HR Derby over DOM, by a pretty large margin.

I would pick DOM for my MLB team over Ruf by a larger margin.

[GTown_Dave]

Phillibuster: Apologies. My point being, I don't see how what a guy did in MiLB is particularly relevant to what he does in MLB. I also wonder how power numbers skew across all of MLB once the weather warms up ... Charlie's famed "hittin' season".

[NEPP]

Its a well known fact that Coca Cola Park is situated in a micro-climate where it is often quite brisk well into June there. For example, the average on-field temperature there last June was just 38 degrees F while the surrounding neighborhoods averaged just under 71 degrees.

Thus, if you didn't know this, you might not be nearly as impressed by Ruf's numbers from Apr-Jun there last year.

Study it out.

[GTown_Dave]

How can you sit there and call for Ruf to be given the same chance as DOM, when he already has been given the better one to start his career?

Because he's also had a markedly better start to his career than did Dom?

[Jack]

This whole Dom Brown thing cracks me up. Do people honestly care about this? Seems like it's gone like this:

Phillies fans: "Dom Brown stinks at baseball."

Dom Brown: "Phillies fans boo me, even though I was good this year."

Phillies fans: "See, even though he was good, his comments show he isn't a leader. So he still stinks."

[Phillibuster]

GTown: I'm not sure if you meant it this way, but it seems you essentially just said that the minors are useless for predicting how a guy will do in the majors.

That seems a fairly absurd assumption, on the face of things, since that, and development, are exactly what the minors are for.

2013 MLB Average (team) HRs in:
April - 27
May - 28
June - 27
July - 23
August - 26
September - 25

2012:
April - 21
May - 29
June - 28
July - 27
August - 29
September - 28

[Phillibuster]

NEPP: Are we certain that chilliness wasn't simply due to the number of cold stares towards the home team by those in attendance?

[MG]

So Leyland gave a frank and honest assessment of the organization and his feedback got him immediately dismissed for consideration.

Amaro is just a symptom of what has been ailing this team for a long, long time. It is Montgomery (and Giles when he was running things) and their level of meddling in baseball-related decisions and insular group-think.

Looking back over the past few years, it is frankly pretty amazing that the run from '07-'11 took place and you have to wonder how much of that was just was luck due to hitting on a couple of key drafts picks in the late 90s/early 00s.

[GTown_Dave]

Phillibuster: Never said it was useless, just not equivalent.

[MG]

It is ridiculous to say 'Brown stinks at baseball' after the development he showed last year.

The question if Brown can improve his % BB/OBP this year a bit without sacrificing power and continue to improve his baserunning. Largely given up on him improving defensively in any kind of meaningful way.

If he can, he would turn into a 2-3 WAR player which certainly has value for the next 2-3 seasons as his salary remains low and cost-controlled.

[R.Billingsly]

Hiring Leyland should've been a no-brainer. It blew my mind when they passed on him and hired Manuel. Talk about a clear downgrade.

[Phillibuster]

GTown: I agree it's not equivalent. Notably, because statistics usually erode at the MLB level. Yes, there is the occasional outlier who does better in the majors than the minors, but they are outliers, and you can't bet on any given player being one and still say you're being objective about it.

I just think that it's been pretty apparent through his entire professional career that Ruf is not a consistent power threat. He's definitely a guy you'd want to call up on July 30th, and his OBP in the minors was solid (I'd conservatively say an average of .380 for the minors probably translates to .320-.330 in the majors), but he doesn't seem like a complete player, and his offense isn't good enough to make up for that.

I also don't think you can pencil him in as a 30-HR guy. He was "on pace" to do it this year, but that's because he had his usual torrid August, and he only managed 21 HRs between AAA (against ostensibly easier competition) and MLB.

[MG]

Looking back at how Leyland has been outmanaged in a couple of series the past few postseasons, I don't know how much of a downgrade Cholly tactically was in games.

[clout]

Will Schweitzer: "The king of mocking intangibles says that the World Championship is determined by "hotness" and "luck". Interesting."

Most folks understand the difference between intangibles attributed to human beings, like "desire" and "grit" and "wanting it more" and the inherent randomness of streaks and unusual events.

Folks who don't, like you, are dense or willfully ignorant.

As the poster noted, the facts show the best team rarely wins the World Series.

[MG]

http://www.csmonitor.com/USA/Sports/2013/1020/World-Series-2013-why-Red-Sox-run-is-a-revolution-video

This article is foolish as those those who think every attribute can be neatly defined, measured, modeled, and predicted.

[GTown_Dave]

Phillibuster: I'm not arguing for Ruf to replace Brown, & I still think a straight platoon at 1B would be the best place for him. That said, Brown seems to get a pat on the back every time he does what he was ostensibly supposed to have been doing all along, while Ruf does something positive & people say, "Yeah, that'll never last". Maybe so, but it's not as if the Phillies are in a position in which they can't afford to wait & see.

[GTown_Dave]

clout: I'm eager to discover whether Grit is more important than Playing The Game The Right Way.

[Phillibuster]

GTown: I don't think Brown gets the free passes you think he does. Or at least, I know he doesn't from me. I also see lots of "trade Brown now!"s out there, because he stunk it up for a couple of years and people are worried he'll never have more value because 2013 was his outlier (positively) season.

Ruf, on the other hand, gets people popping up all over the place throwing out tidbits like "he was on pace for 29 HRs in 2013!" or "he's the right-handed power bat that we need!" When I point out that he doesn't have a sustained track record of power (especially HR power), and that he's essentially built his reputation as a power hitter off 2 months (in 2 separate seasons), I get a lot of vehement denials or "he just hasn't had a chance yet!"s.

Ruf as a straight platoon for Howard is probably the best use we can get out of him. Maybe coupled with a LF time-share with another poor-fielding power bat (assuming Brown moves to RF - shudder).

Maybe it's just my anecdotal memory, but I seem to recall a lot more people saying things along the lines of "you need to get Ruf those ABs any way you can" than saying "Brown's proven he belongs in the majors as an everyday corner outfielder."

[Phillibuster]

GTown: I'm reasonably certain that The Will To Win (WtW) is the most effective intangible statistic.

[GTown_Dave]

Phillibuster: It's probably fairly evenly divided between the two, although I'd replace "Brown's proven he belongs in the majors as an everyday corner outfielder" w/ "Brown hasn't been given enough (MLB) time to fully develop" ... & there is some merit in each claim.

Question: Am I wrong in assuming that beardedness increases one's WtW?

[LorecorE]

gtown: "I don't see how what a guy did in MiLB is particularly relevant to what he does in MLB"

This ignorance is a good example of why we rarely see eye to eye. Just simple fundamental shortcomings on your part.

[fumphis]

As Ruben Amaro, Jr. and Chris Wheeler know, the WS winner is the team with the highest sum of the following:

Veteran presence
Production
Hustle
Wanting it
Productive outs
Soft hands
Doing the little things
Professional hitting
Grinding it out
Playing the game the right way
Being a student of the game
Hunger [Delmon Young joke goes here]
Leadership
Only knowing one way to play the game--all out

[bay_area_phan]

Fumphis: That's a good list, though I do have 2 small quibbles: (1) Production should be listed first; (2) You forgot versatility.

[NEPP]

Veteran presence
Production
Hustle
Wanting it
Productive outs
Soft hands
Doing the little things
Professional hitting
Grinding it out
Playing the game the right way
Being a student of the game
Hunger [Delmon Young joke goes here]
Leadership
Only knowing one way to play the game--all out
******************************************

Oddly enough, these are the same qualities that pedophiles seek in their victims...

[GTown_Dave]

LorecorE: All playing well in MiLB should get you is a shot at MLB. It's not any manner of guarantee of being able to stick when you get there, let alone play as well as you did in MiLB. Now if you'll excuse me, I'm going to help Tyler Cloyd list his International League MVP award on eBay.

[Phillibuster]

GTown: Honestly, I simply haven't seen that many people saying Brown "still needs more time" or the like. There are a few, but they're obvious Brown aficionados, and their number is severely reduced from where it was a year ago.

Ruf - whether it be because he's shown higher overall power numbers, wasn't a highly-touted prospect but "burst" onto the scene, or other, less savory reasons - seems to have a ton of people who imagine he's the home run hitter we lack. That his offense makes up for any of the glaring deficiencies in the rest of his game.

[Phillibuster]

As to beardedness and WtW, I think that's backwards. Beardedness is evidence of WtW. The greater your WtW, the more it forces the hair out of your face.

[Phillibuster]

On a minor technical note, I don't think anybody's arguing that MiLB success necessitates MLB success.

Just that lack of MiLB success would indicate that lack of MLB success is more likely.

[GTown_Dave]

Phillibuster: On a team so pitifully lacking in offense, I rather think Ruf's offensive numbers largely do offset his defensive liabilities. Allowing him to split time w/ Howard at 1B might also help the latter's health & (dare I type the word?) productivity. The Phillies have nothing to lose by giving it a shot.

[Phillibuster]

GTown: That's not strictly true. The team's defense was similarly pitiful in 2013, and for a team built on pitching (as ours supposedly is) that seems to be a worse sin. Remember, 2013 Howard had a tremendously better UZR/150 at 1B than 2013 Ruf.

In addition to having sub-standard defense, my point all along is that his bat is not as good as people like to project it. He puts up a majority of his power numbers in August, and he's been getting those August PAs, which help pad his numbers. I think his real, averaged OPS is closer to .800 (which is still good for most players, and where he ended up this year), but it's not the 1.000 many are ready to anoint him with based on his AA numbers last year and his July/August ones this year (his MiLB career average is .882, and his 2013 OPS in AAA was .749). It also doesn't make up for his terrible defense unless he gets tons of PHs or DH opportunities.

If we're not going to sign or trade for any legitimate starting corner outfielders, then I agree it doesn't really hurt much (unless he doesn't correct his platoon splits from 2013, or Howard unexpectedly recovers against LHP).

[LorecorE]

gtown: your theory is pretty flawless - wait until after a player performs, then make a decision on whether he was good or not.

Unfortunately that theory isn't really much help in the real world.

[awh™]

"As to Ruf's OBP, let's not pretend that his numbers weren't boosted by a .436 BaBIP in July 2013."

Buster, let's also not pretend that his numbers weren't hurt by a .254 BAbip in August.

Should we discount Utley's numbers for the year because he had a .389 BAbip in September? How about Revere's June when his BAbip was .393, or his July when it was .413? Should a team shy away from signing Cano because his numbers were helped by a .372 BAbip in August and September?

Lastly, would you recommend that the Phillies NOT pursue Jacoby Ellsbury because his numbers were boosted by a .404 BAbip in June?

;)

[GTown_Dave]

Phillibuster: My feeling is Ruf has earned the right to get regular playing time throughout a full MLB season. Unless/until that happens, it's all just speculation.

[GTown_Dave]

LorecorE: That's not my theory at all. More like, "If he plays well in high MiLB, give him a shot in MLB ... but don't assume that success in the former will transfer to the latter."

[Phillibuster]

awh: Part of that is because 9 of the balls that would have been hits weren't technically "in play" per BaBIP, since he had his usual August power surge.

I'm not saying that Ruf's OBP is a mirage. I don't think I said that anywhere, actually. What I'm saying is that he benefited from an early OBP lift due to an abnormally high (dramatically higher than all of the other ones you listed, incidentally), and that with a more sustainable number (.436 is a lot more over .300 than .254 is below it, after all), he probably averages out to a less-impressive OBP.

[LorecorE]

buster: "He puts up a majority of his power numbers in August, and he's been getting those August PAs, which help pad his numbers. "

You talk like if we hung up a calendar in Ruf's locker that said "August", he'd somehow play better. "Month" is not a split. "Month" does not affect a player's performance.

Sure, temperature, wind, humidity, etc can affect a player and certain months are more likely to have certain conditions - but actual "Month" has nothing to do with anything.

[awh™]

Buster, I also missed this comment:

"(he's bad at corner outfield D, but he's better there than Ruf is anywhere, even 1B)."

and this one:

"Remember, 2013 Howard had a tremendously better UZR/150 at 1B than 2013 Ruf."

As to the first one, please cite the empirical evidence. As a Sophomore, Ruf won the Rawlings Gold Glove while in college:

http://www.gocreighton.com/ViewArticle.dbml?DB_OEM_ID=1000&ATCLID=1145583

As to the second statement, if you cite that as evidence supporting the first comment, are you really going to use 251 innings at a position as a valid sample size and cite a stat that has its' own flaws?

[LorecorE]

and i just looked at it - ruf's lowest OPS in a calendar month is in...August. So how did this even get brought up?

[WSJ]

I know it was likely just an emotional tweet, but I cannot honestly recall a young Phillie who has been given a lengthier rope with which to hang himself.

2010 .210/.257/.612
2011 .245/.333/.725
2012 .235/.316/.712

Dom was basically handed the starting job in 2013 after a good spring training (despite playing bad defense and posting the above slash lines during his prior three years worth of tryouts). And the Phillies had to put Ruf in RF (to the detriment to overall team defense) to accomodate Dom's fear of/inability to play RF.

And to say no love from the fans? After a standing "O" during your first major league at bat? After we put aside three disappointing years from you and cheered for you more than almost any other Philadelphia atlete so far in 2013?

I mean, I'm not sure there has been a more coddled Phillie in the past 10 years. As I said, probably just emotions getting in the way, but Dom, don't make yourself hard to like - too much potential good ahead to ruin it already.

[awh™]

Buster, the purpose of my BAbip post was to show you that almost ALL PLAYERS have streaks where their BAbip could be called abnormally high.

I found those examples at b-r.com in less than 5 minutes by randomly looking at players' game logs.

I'd be willing to be that I could find hundreds of such months if I kept looking. In short, I think your point carries little weight because of the randomness and variability of all players' success.

Additionally, if you look at Ruf's minor league and college numbers, he's always gotten on base. I'll bet he had "BAbip assisted" months before.

I would respond to that by saying "So what?". All players do.

Next.

[Hugh Mulcahy]

Is there some empirical study that supports the suggestion that a high or low BAbip in a given time frame is purely random? Like, a .410 BAbip typically involves 5 Texas leaguers and 3 swinging bunt singles per 100 PAs, whereas a .300, involves a total of 3 of these combined? Is it just possible that a high rate of balls falling in reflects perhaps a period in which a hitter is swinging at better pitches and making better contact, i.e., helping himself rather htan being helped by the guardian angel of random distribution?

[awh™]

Hugh, that's entirely possible, but the point is that statistically, at least, the results are random. There could always be physical or mental (confidence) reasons a player performs at a high level.

[LorecorE]

wsj: DOM got 13 starts in 2010. In 2011 he was demoted for a Hunter Pence trade. In 2012 he came up after the trade deadline.

How is that a very lengthy rope? His entire 3 season tenure combined wouldn't even qualify him for a batting title during 1 season.

You are so ridiculously wrong.

[LorecorE]

DOM gets 62 starts combined in 2010 and 2011.
Darin Ruf gets 70 starts in 2013 alone.

Yet we've had multiple people complain that Ruf deserves the same chance that DOM has and complain how long he's been given to prove himself.

[The Truth Injection]

This new narrative that Dom Brown was given a long rope with which to hang himself is kind of silly.

He was called up briefly in 2010 because they had injuries.

In 2011 they had him playing right and then decided it wasn't enough to be far out in front of the division and they replaced him with Pence (further making that a bad trade).

2012 they waited until the trade deadline to call him up.

(Yes I know there were some injuries scattered throughout those years)

But they never really gave him rope to hang himself. They were always looking for something new and better and thus he never got a real shake until 2013.

[Richard Nixon]

" I don't think anybody's arguing that MiLB success"

At first I read this as "MiLF success"

[GTown_Dave]

LorecorE: I think you're looking at it rather backwards. Using your numbers, my question would be why shouldn't Ruf continue to get starts after playing fairly well in his first 70 G if Dom continued to get starts after playing poorly in his first 62 G?

[Redburb]

I think I said this before but when a poster says Brown didn't live up to the expectations from 2010-12 - who's expectations are they speaking about? Their own expectations or some other expectations that were put out there?

[GTown_Dave]

Redburb: I apologize for answering a question w/ a question, but do you find it unreasonable for fans to have expected that the "untouchable" top prospect in the Phillies' system would put up better than a .236/.315/.388 line?

[The Truth Injection]

I'll speak for myself but I think any top prospect who is being conditioned to be always looking over his shoulder is probably going to have a hard time adjusting.

[Redburb]

Gtown - Don't you think that slash line needs a little context though? The Pence trade in 2011 and sitting on the bench in 2010 didn't help him. It's also a slash line for 492 PAs over parts of 3 seasons.

Also just because a prospect is labeled as "untouchable" by the FO doesn't mean that that prospect needs to perform up to the expecatations of the fanbase.

[Redburb]

I just had a thought too. If the frustration was because of the FO's labeling him as "untouchable", shouldn't the anger/frustration be directed at the FO instead of the player?

[LorecorE]

gtown: I'm not against Ruf getting a shot - my whole argument has been that I think DOM is the better player going forward.

While no one has came out and clearly said they think Ruf will be better, there's been a whole lot comments hinting at it, including how Ruf just 'needs a shot like DOM got'.

[LorecorE]

Question: If the Phillies acquire a corner OF who is clearly better than DOM and Ruf, how do you think the Phillies should split playing time in the opposite corner?

My answer would be DOM gets 100% of the PA, and you plug in Ruf elsewhere if possible.

[The Truth Injection]

Lorecore: As I've advocated numerous times. Brown should be the other corner outfielder in that scenario. Ruf then takes the Mayberry role as being Back-up Corner OF/1B/First RHB off the bench.

Then sign a back up center fielder as your 5th guy, or let Hernandez slide into the Back-up CF/2B role.

[Phillibuster]

Lore: Honestly, I only mention that it was August in particular because it was a statistical quirk (or at least I assume as much) that he did it in the same month both years. The larger, and I would hope more obvious, point is that while he's capable of going on a bit of a hot streak vis-a-vis power, it's not sustainable for him.

Two years running now he's had a single month where's drastically outperformed his season HR totals. In 2011 it was 1.3 months (August/September). This is across all levels of his game, not just the last year.

Thus I find it incredibly disingenuous to posit things like "he was on pace for 30 HRs!" He wasn't. In 2012, he would have been in line with the same gradual HR increase that he'd demonstrated the previous 3 years. Then he hit August and turned into Mark McGwire Jr. In 2013, he was "on pace" for a grand total of around 17 HRs across AAA and MLB with 643 PAs across the two levels (more at AAA). Then he outperformed in August again, and made it just over 20.

If it's not evidence of a general lack of consistent HR power, then someone certainly should be flipping all the posters in the clubhouse to August.

[awh™]

Lorecore, I'll offer this:

I think it is within the realm of possibility that Ruf could put up a higher OPS than Dom going forward. The reason: It's possible that he has better OB skills and that could translate to a higher OPS.

Would that make him the "better" player? Probably, but how much "better" depends on where Ruf plays - that is, how he's used defensively.

Dom should be the better baserunner and better OF defender, but if Ruf sees the majority of his time at 1B and not the OF, and puts up an OBP that's .020+ higher along with a SLG that's comparable, Dom's "superiority" overall might be marginal.

[awh™]

Oops, the above should say:

"Would that make Dom the better player?"

[LorecorE]

tti: agreed. And I think Ruf is well suited for such a role.

[awh™]

Interestingly, Dom's HR/PA in 2013 was exactly 20 (540 PA).

Ruf's HR/PA was 20.92 (293 PA).

Looks like they could have similar power numbers (SLG) going forward, so whoever wins the 'OPS contest' might be the guy that gets on base more.

[Phillibuster]

awh: And my point was that Ruf's were abnormally higher. .254 is not drastically low, but .436 is drastically high. Some of that you can credit to his hitting prowess, but since he wasn't exactly smashing XBHs left and right in July (8), I don't think you can credit that exclusively.

Yes, everybody goes through streaks, but here's Ruf's slash and BABip for the months of the 2013 season in which he sat at the MLB level:

.297/.408/.484 with a .436 BABip
.229/.305/.505 with a .254 BABip
.232/.354/.378 with a .320 BABip

As to the defensive numbers, I can only cite what we've got. Minor League Central doesn't post defensive statistics (not even fielding percentages and/or RF). I can say that while the eye test gives Ruf the better throwing arm, he doesn't seem to stretch as well as Howard (possibly due to having to reach across with the glove), and he didn't look noticeably better going back on pop-ups in foul territory. Brown, similarly, definitely doesn't look good in the outfield, but he looks more competent than Ruf by a wide margin, if only because he can actually make up for some of his positioning miscues thanks to his speed.

[Phillibuster]

And to Nixon: I'm pretty sure we're all arguing for MILF success.

[awh™]

"If it's not evidence of a general lack of consistent HR power, then someone certainly should be flipping all the posters in the clubhouse to August."

And we could make the same argument about Brown, who has hit most of his HR in May/June. Also, looking at his MiL numbers, he hit more HR early in the season as well.

He hasn't, to my eye, demonstrated "consistent HR power" throughout a season at any level. Prior to 2013, the most HR he hit in the minors in any year were 20 in 2010 at Reading.

It's amazing, isn't it? Just like BAbip "randomness" there seems to some randomness with regard to players' HR.

[NEPP]

I'm queer.

[GTown_Dave]

Redburb: It's a poor line no matter what the circumstances. That Brown finally showed signs of becoming that player in the first half of '13 shows those expectations couldn't have been entirely out of whack. And I've certainly never shied away from criticizing the FO. :-)

[awh™]

'buster, since you're taking that position define and quantify "abnormally higher".

Some empirical evidence would be helpful - you know - like a distribution chart that shows how many players have had a BAbip in a month (which, as was pointed out above, is an arbitrary time period to begin with) that is as high as Ruf's was, and those on the other end of the chart - say .164 for a month.

My guess is that there have been many other players who have had those type of results in the past over a 76 PA stretch.

But just out of curiosity, how come you didn't comment on his 76 PA stretch from July 14 to August 8 when his BAbip was .341?

[GTown_Dave]

I'm such a fag for you NEPP.

[Phillibuster]

awh: I would agree that Brown hasn't demonstrated consistent HR power. In fact, I never argued that he did.

My issue is with those who claim that Ruf has, because he had one awesome month in 2012, and one good month in 2013.

[Phillibuster]

Can I join? We can have a three way.

[Phillibuster]

awh: Yes, congratulations, you discovered that the endpoints of the sample are arbitrary. Well done.

Of course, since all endpoints outside of the first and last of the season are completely arbitrary, we might as well go with the ones that fit neatly within the categorization method that literally the entire world uses to divide up the whole into a sum of parts. No? Especially since it happens to divide his MLB season roughly into thirds?

Of course, since July was the month in which he had the fewest PAs, it's understandable that his BABip would be more volatile. In the month with his most PAs, it was slightly below standard.

[awh™]

'buster, the problem with your position is that you can look at any player's stats and make the argument that his HR power has not been "consistent".

Even players like Pujols and Howard - proven power hitters - have had periods where they experienced significant power outages and have had periods where they hit HRs in bunches.

We haven't seen enough of either Brown or Ruf at the MLB level to know anything about their power "consistency".

AAMOF, I can't think of any player who is "consistent" when it come to HR power.

[Phillibuster]

Incidentally. Among qualified hitters (by month) in the 2013 Season...

NL BABip in July:
#1 - Chris Johnon, .470
#2 - Darin Ruf, .436
#3 - Hanley Ramirez, .423
#4 - Marlon Byrd, .420
#5 - Freddie Freeman, .403
#6-49: Sub-.400
#50-75: Sub-.300
#76-80: Sub-.200

In April, 3 qualified batters had a higher BABip than .436 (Johnson, Hundley, Castillo). 7th-highest was .400.

In May, Votto had a .436 (highest of the month). 5th was a .391.

In June, Puig had a .500. Everybody else sub-.400.

In August, 2 had over .436 (Gennett, McCutcheon), and only 5 had over .400.

In September/October, 2 had over .436 (Yelich, Cuddyer), nobody outside of the top 7 had over .400.

So in other words, it was rather rare to have a BABip as high as .436 in any given month.

[Shane]

On Leyland: *sigh* if only...

[Shane]

MG: "Looking back over the past few years, it is frankly pretty amazing that the run from '07-'11 took place and you have to wonder how much of that was just was luck due to hitting on a couple of key drafts picks in the late 90s/early 00s."

THIS ^^^^^

And don't forget the Rule-5 lottery ticket wins on Vic and Werth.

[Phillibuster]

awh: We have 5 years of PAs to go on.

During that time, he has averaged 513 PAs/year over all levels.

During that time, he's hit 91 HRs, averaging out to 28.19 HRs/season. 20 of those 91 HRs came during one month of 2012, over 133 PAs. A further 9 came over 118 PAs in one month of 2013.

22% of his HR numbers came during 5.2% of his PAs (20 HRs in 8/12). If you factor in August of 2013, that becomes 32% of his HR numbers over 9.8% of his PAs.

You can call the endpoints arbitrary if you like, and it's true. But there's a finite number of PAs in a month, and it's not like Ruf was seeing drastically more or drastically fewer PAs/season - on average - than most players in the minors.

[Cyclic]

I don't even know what this argument is anymore.

[Phillibuster]

Was Werth rule 5? I thought he was just broken and nobody wanted to give him a chance.

[Jack]

If we're living in the "what should the Phillies do?" world, the answer is fairly obvious:

They should sign a corner OF, play Dom in the other corner, and run a straight platoon of Howard/Ruf at 1B.

[Conway Twitty]

Phillibuster: You must have conducted your eye tests on different games than I did. Ruf looked 100% better than Howard going back on foul pops, and actually catching them.