An updated look at Phillies' salary commitments

The Phillies want their 2014 payroll to be between $165-170 million. That probably means no more moves. Just have a look at the projected payroll:

Already signed

-Ryan Howard, Cliff Lee and Cole Hamels: $73.5 million

-Chase Utley and Jimmy Rollins: $26MM

-Jonathan Papelbon and Mike Adams: $20MM

-Carlos Ruiz and Wil Nieves: $9.625MM

-Marlon Byrd: $8MM

-Miguel Alfredo Gonzalez: $4MM

-Roberto Hernandez: $4.5MM

-Kevin Frandsen: $900,000

Arbitration guys

-Kyle Kendrick: $7MM

-Antonio Bastardo: $2MM

-John Mayberry: $1.5MM

-Ben Revere: $1.5MM

Pre-arbitration guys

Dom Brown, Darin Ruf, Brad Lincoln, Jeremy Horst, Phillippe Aumont, Freddy Galvis, Cody Asche, Justin De Fratus, Jake Diekman, Cesar Hernandez, Jonathan Pettibone, Ethan Martin, Kevin Munson, B.J. Rosenberg, Cameron Rupp and Michael Stutes.

Most of those players figure to earn between $490,000 and $600,000 in 2014. So that adds about $6-8 million more to the payroll, bringing it to just under $165 million.

This is why the Phillies so badly want to move Papelbon. But the only two options there are: a) Trade him for absolutely nothing but rid yourself of the contract, or b) Eat some/most of the money to get a decent return.

Either way ... this doesn't look good. The Phils need help on the bench and in the bullpen, but probably can't afford to add to both areas.

Comments

[jr]

No problem,Rube is going to be creative.

[Ruben Amaro, Jr]

If I can't put together a championship-caliber club at $140 million, then that's my fault.

[Cyclic]

Who are the Phillies supposed to be targeting for the bullpen and bench that they can't afford both?

[GTown_Dave]

Cyclic: "Can't afford" isn't exactly correct. "Won't increase total payroll above '13 levels to sign" would be the more appropriate phrasing.

[awh™]

GTown, exactly!

[curt]

So no Tanaka then? Oh well.

[Phillibuster]

aksmith (from prior thread): The point is that the Rangers couldn't tell Darvish's agent: "Sorry, dude, you're gonna have to settle for less money/year because of the massive amount we posted for you."

Your argument that Tanaka would cost more per year was based on the higher posting fee for Darvish (which wouldn't drop his salary so much that he'd cost half what Tanaka would), and his "superior" numbers - which he doesn't have.

Darvish's career numbers were significantly better - Tanaka had better age 24 and age 22 seasons, but you'll notice Darvish's NPB career ERA is 1.99, while Tanaka's is 2.30. Tanaka has a significantly higher WHIP as well.

[Phillibuster]

Unless you're referring to his W/L record with that statement?

[NEPP]

***Either way ... this doesn't look good. The Phils need help on the bench and in the bullpen, but probably can't afford to add to both areas.***

Corey, they could...they simply choose not to. Were you a fan in the late 90s? Its much the same now as it was then...the only thing we're missing is Giles telling us we're a small-market franchise.

[awh™]

The Muts got "cash considerations" for Seth Rosin.

Figures the Wilpons would do something like that. Must be desperate for cash.

[Kendrick Appreciation Society]

Mini Mart signs with the Pirates!!!!!!!!!!!

That deserves a celebratory post!

[Phillibuster]

Will the Pirates "use him properly," and we'll see why Amaro hung onto him for so long as he goes on to post a .280/.325/.400 slash, along with a 1.87 ERA out of the bullpen?

[awh™]

Overpaid - Underpaid in the NL East:

http://www.thegoodphight.com/2013/12/11/5201122/overpaid-underpaid-in-the-nl-east#comments

Nice article by schmenkman over there.

[ramsey]

Revere and Brown are the only players on the roster who look likely to provide significant surplus value next year. Everyone else is being paid about what they are likely to produce, and in one case substantially more.

But hey, it's not our money, and there's no budget, and they're about to sign a huge TV deal, right?

[NEPP]

YES!!!!!!!

DING DONG, THE WITCH IS DEAD, THE WITCH IS DEAD!!!!

[NEPP]

Per Twitter, Rube is reportedly deep in trade talks with an "unnamed NL Central" club about one of their young versatile prospects...Biddle, Franco and a 3rd piece were supposedly on the table.

[awh™]

KAS, yes.

May he curse the Pirates MLB club instead of ours.

Of course, if mini mart sees any time in Pittsburgh, it will be a sure sign that they have many, many injuries.

[bay_area_phan]

"Mini Mart signs with the Pirates!!!!!!!!!!!"

You'd have to go all the way back to the 2008 WFC to find a news item that is more deserving of its own new Beerleaguer thread. Mini-Mart is to Beerleaguer as oil is to Saudi Arabia.

[NEPP]

Much like that 08 WS win, I think the banner needs to be changed to something special to reflect this momentous occasion.

[Phillibuster]

NEPP: I think you mean "experienced, but still in his prime, MLB player with the capacity to play all 9 positions, plus DH, and a few extra positions to boot."

[NEPP]

Mini Mart is barely in his 30s...in Rube's eyes, that's a young prospect.

[Mike G]

NEPP, who tweeted that?

[Mike G]

Nevermind. I just read the rest of the posts. What an idiot I am.

[GTown_Dave]

I'd like to be excited RE: the Martinez news, but r00b is liable to go & trade Lee to the Pirates mid-July in order to get him back.

[crystal ball]

Major League Baseball Trade Rumors

July 31, 2014

PHILLIES REACQUIRE MICHAEL MARTINEZ FROM PIRATES

In a move to shore up the team's depth, following injuries to Kevin Frandsen and Freddy Galvis, the Phillies have reacquired utility player Michael Martinez from the Pirates. Sources say that the Pirates will receive highly regarded J.P. Crawford, Carlos Tocci, and a player to be named later, rumored to be either Severino Gonzalez or Kelly Duggan. "We're excited to have Martinez back in the fold," Phillies GM Ruben Amaro, Jr. stated, "He adds some youth to our roster and provides us with tremendous versatility that we have sorely lacked since Galvis went down."

[NEPP]

Well played, Mauer.

[Redburb]

Kelly Duggan huh? Is he a new signee?

[bay_area_phan]

Damn. I finally figured out that it's Freddy (not Freddie) Galvis, and then I had to ruin it by misspelling Dugan.

[NEPP]

It's all good.

[Conway Twitty]

ATTENTION HUGH M. in Pittsburg! IT'S FRIDAY THE 13TH!!!

[MG]

$20M invested in Papelbon and Adams bugs me more than the $25M in Howard.

[GTown_Dave]

$20M invested in Papelbon and Adams bugs me more than the $25M in Howard.

I can't say it bugs me more, but at least Howard was a major contributor the recent success of the ball club. The Phillies could & would have sucked out loud whether Papelbon & Adams had ever been here or not.

[The Truth Injection]

I'm fully expecting Martinez to get cut in spring training, and Amaro will be watching out of the complex window in Clearwater when he sees Martinez out in the distance. He then rushes out to Martinez like the father did to the Prodigal Son and says to his advisers "Whatever he wants contract wise give it to him."

[Redburb]

One thing that there is unanimous consent among all BLers: hatred of Mini-Mart. Gotta love it.

[Michael Martinez]

I'm gonna come back and haunt the Phillies and be all-world against them.

[Redburb]

I noticed that Mini got a ST invite from the Buccos. That's perplexing.

[Bedrosian's Beard]

MY EYES! THESE GOGGLES! THEY DO NOTHING!!

[NEPP]

They also gave Clint Barmes a few million and I'm about as good a hitter as either player...thought at least Barmes has a fantastic glove even as he goes into his Age 35 season.

Barmes career is a good blueprint for Freddy Galvis actually...all glove and zero bat but he's entering his 12th MLB season now.

[SLO Phan]

"Mini Mart signs with the Pirates!!!!!!!!!!!"

There IS a God.

[Phillibuster]

Indians pick up Cloyd (again), although this time on a MiLB deal with an ST invite.

[Scotch Man]

Is Randy Wolf signed up yet?

[NEPP]

Loney back to the Rays for 3/21...pretty solid deal really. Especially for them given their salary constraints. He was asking for 3/30 previously when the Pirates tried to sign him.

[NEPP]

Looks like Infante is going to the Royals now too...the Yankees are losing out on another 2B option.

[Phillibuster]

4/$30MM for Omar? Eh, I'd probably do that, I guess. If we needed someone to be a 2B starter, anyway.

[NEPP]

Looks like he took the extra year from the Royals instead of the slightly higher AAV the Yankees were offering ($8 M vs. $7.5 M)

[clout]

NEPP: I like the Barmes-Galvis comp. I think Freddy's a better fielder, but he'll never have Barmes' power, so it's a wash. People forget that Barmes hit 23 HRs one year.

[NEPP]

Well yeah, no comp is ever going to be exact.

[clout]

Papelbon ($13M last year and this year) had a good season in 2013 yet he's heaped with abuse. Adams ($5M last year, $7M this year) did nothing for the team, yet not a word of criticism. Strange.

[clout]

I cannot imagine any scenario in which Mini-Mart plays a game with the Pirates in 2014 except a plan crash.

[clout]

plane

[NEPP]

Are you kidding about the Adams thing? People have been ripping that contract for a while now...though the whole out of sight, out of mind thing does come in a bit.

[gobaystars!]

This is going to be a very bad team.

[NEPP]

They'll probably come in around 65-75 wins...so yeah, they're a very bad team.

If everything breaks right and they massively over perform expectations, they could break 80 wins but that would be a pretty major outlier given their current setup.

[clout]

NEPP: I meant on last couple of threads. All piling on Papelbon. Not a peep about Adams.

[NEPP]

Oh, yeah, that's fair. At most, someone might lump Adams cost in with Pap but its been pretty heavy on Pap.

[clout]

gobaystars!: No comment on the Darvish vs. Tanaka debate from previous thread?

[Fatalotti]

MICHAEL MARTINEZ IS GONE!!!!!!

[NEPP]

I would be that Tanaka will easily get a higher AAV than Darvish for a few reasons:

1. Lower posting fee means much more money can and will go to the player.

2. Massive contract inflation in the past two seasons.

3. While DiceK's failure to adapt to MLB lowered the value of incoming Japanese players a bit, Darvish's massive success has brought it back up again.

4. Scarcity of SP available this winter.

Thus, while Darvish only got 6/56, I could easily see Tanaka, a lesser pitcher, getting 6/90 or even something like 6/105.

Thoughts?

[gobaystars!]

Re: Tanaka/Darvish
I missed it entirely. I've been in and out of the offseason discussions so far.
I saw Darvish pitch so much more on his way up in Japan than I've seen Tanaka. I moved in with my girlfriend this year so my late night/early morning NPB watching has gone way down.
But based on what I have seen, Tanaka is more conventional than Darvish. Tanaka isn't showing up with 5-6 pitches like Darvish did. Tanaka is a splitter and fastball guy when it comes down to it, although he has a slider too.
Their numbers in NPB are pretty similar but Tanaka had his most dominant season in a year where the NPB introduced an extremely live ball. The league changed balls last season and offenses went wild while Tanaka had an unprecedented pitching season. That obviously counts for something.

[Chris in VT]

From my understanding, Darvish was seen as a 2 with the potential to be a 1. Tanaka is seen as a 3 with the potential to be a 2...that makes a huge difference in their values, but a young, controllable through his prime potential #2 is really valuable in today's market, and I agree with NEPP that Tanaka will get more than Darvish. 6/80 sounds about right, maybe a little higher...but I wouldn't expect aksmith's scenario where he sign a 20 mil AAV contract. Those numbers are reserved for the upper-echelon guys, usually.

[gobaystars!]

I am a little surprised that guys like Darvish don't sign 1-2 year relatively high AAV contracts and then become MLB free agents.

[Conway Twitty]

gobaystars!: I've read that Tanaka has small hands, which might not translate well with the larger U.S. baseball. What is the difference in ball size?

[NEPP]

Supposedly, since 2011, NPB uses the exact same baseball as MLB so there is no difference anymore. The ball used to be slightly smaller.

[lorecore]

ha, Pittsburgh, you suck!

Even when you win about 20 more games than the Phillies do this year, deep down, you suck.

[Will Schweitzer]

I predict that Tanaka has a realistic chance of outearning Darvish for three reasons:

1. Mediocre pitchers are pulling in +10m/yr.

2. The market for quality arms is thin this winter (and tied to draft picks).

3. Tanaka has a bit more negotiating power than Darvish (lower posting fee from the winning team, his ability to choose the team that he negotiates with).

Also, if he signs with a NL team, I'm not convinced that he won't outperform Darvish in the AL West.

[Will Schweitzer]

Sorry Nepp. Didn't mean to post virtually the same exact thing. I started writing earlier and my wife distracted me with a long diatribe about the snow tomorrow.

[gobaystars!]

The commissioner of the NPB stepped down this fall over altering the ball to make it more lively. I don't know about the size but they've admitted to changing it for the 2013 season and then keeping it a secret.

[derekcarstairs]

NEPP - I agree with you that Tanaka will be paid more than Darvish even though the latter is considered the better pitcher. Frequently, the best are not paid the most. It's a timing issue, and Tanaka would be coming into MLB at the right time to expect a big salary.

The competition for Tanaka's services should be fierce. In the current climate, I expect Tanaka to be paid a lot more than Darvish. aksmith's number may not be off so much as some may think.

[Whoo Hooo!!!]

I always enjoyed watching Kelly Duggan's father, Hacksaw Jim, hit wrestlers over the head with a 2 by 4 in the WWF.

Hoooo!!!!

[Will Schweitzer]

If he does have a major league career, how freaking awesome would it be if the CBP crowd greeted his at-bats with a hearty "Hooooooo".

[Redburb]

Will - The only way that works is if whoever sets up his walkup music uses Hacksaw's theme song. I bet it would catch on really fast.

[GTown_Dave]

Papelbon ($13M last year and this year) had a good season in 2013 yet he's heaped with abuse. Adams ($5M last year, $7M this year) did nothing for the team, yet not a word of criticism. Strange.

My issue w/ Papelbon isn't w/ how he has performed, it's that he was signed in the first place. At least Adams, if healthy, might have filled a need. Papelbon was an Amaro vanity signing which served absolutely no purpose.

[aksmith]

I'm wondering what the comp is for Tanaka. What major league pitchers are assessed as similar.

Once we have that comp, then make believe they're 24 and they are free agents without draft pick compensation. Then what are they worth?

I will stipulate that nobody is worth the money they're being paid in major league baseball, and free agents even less so. But look at the landscape and what is Tanaka really worth?

I'm guessing the 6/100 or 6/105 would be a starting point these days. Not including the 20 million posting fee.

[Will Schweitzer]

From MLBTradeRumors:
Gavin Floyd Close To Signing

Pitcher Gavin Floyd is close to signing a one-year deal with an unknown team, Eduardo A. Encina of the Baltimore Sun tweets. Encina indicates that that team is not the Orioles, who were known to be interested in Floyd.

-------------------------------------------

So, the was picked up by the Baltimore Sun and it's apparently not the Orioles.

Phillies or Nationals perhaps?

[aksmith]

Floyd would be well served to get back to the NL. But Philly may not be the place for him. He was treated pretty harshly in Philly.

And the pitching coach in Philly is not just a question mark. He is a huge, flashing neon question mark.

[GTown_Dave]

*checks '04 Phillies roster*

Here we go ... Floyd, Gavin.

It's a lock.

[DPat]

Eskin reporting per Twitter Phils agree to new TV deal over 1 billion. Starts in 2015.

[bullit]

i hope it not for more than 10 years. how long is the recent LA Dodgers tv contract?

[GTown_Dave]

Hey, remember that time Eskin was right about something?

Yeah. Neither do I.

[chapulin colorado]

You know how this works people. Now Mini will go on to hit .280 and hit 10 HRs for the Bucs.

[Corn]

Love seeing this in the winners/losers of winter meetings so far.

LOSERS:
Philadelphia Phillies -- What we have here is a team that can't say the word "rebuild." So the Phillies have signed three free-agent position players (Marlon Byrd, Carlos Ruiz and Wil Nieves) who all will begin next season 34 or older. They signed a 33-year-old starter (Roberto "Don't Call Me Fausto" Hernandez) whose 5.03 ERA the past six seasons is the second-highest (behind Luke Hochevar) in baseball among pitchers with 800-plus innings. And amid all of that, they floated the names of Jonathan Papelbon, Cliff Lee and Domonic Brown as potential trade bait, to the confusion of many.

"I just don't understand exactly what they're doing," one AL exec said. "If you're seriously trying to win, you don't do it this way. And if you're trying to get younger, you don't do it this way. At some point, they've got to pick a direction and go with it."

[bullit]

and the direction for amaro is out the door. time to get a job in human biology.

[PLM]

Agreed their is no one direction that Rube is going.

[Chris in VT]

aksmith - I've seen comps for Tanaka that are as varied as Kuroda, Lohse, and Haren for Tanaka...he doesn't throw particularly hard ( average FB is about 90), throws a lot of splitters, and has a decent slider. Also throws a slow curve and kinda throws a couple other pitches.

If he's somewhere in between Lohse and Haren (at his best), I'm not real sure that pitcher, as a 25 year old FA, is pulling down a 120 million dollar deal.

[MG]

- this offseason has been like an old WB cartoon where Amaro plays the role of Wily E Coyote and is pursuing the more nimble NL competitors played by the Nats/Braves. Poor old Rube has gone off the cliff and my mid season he will realize it before he plummets again with another summer swoon.

- Dugan need to give the crowd the 'thumbs up' sign whenever he drives in a run, hits a HR, etc. it would instantly become the most popular sports based thing in the city.

- sure Selig as one of his last acts as commissioner will ensure the balls are juiced with a bit of Flubber in order to revive the sagging offensive numbers. Of course he will deny it and day he had no idea that there was some magical green goop in the balls which lead to a dramatic offensive increase in '16.

- as for mini-mart, as dr.loomis would say, "the evil, the evil is gone from here"

[derekcarstairs]

MLBTR estimates that Santana and Garza will get five- and four-year deals with an AAV of $15 million. If they sign first, I can see Tanaka getting a higher AAV, say, $17-18 million on a five-year deal, i.e., five years at $85-90 million.

[Bob]

- as for mini-mart, as dr.loomis would say, "the evil, the evil is gone from here"

Yeah, and when he returns this summer to Philadelphia via some Rube Goldbergesque scenario, Dr. Loomis will tell the Pirates' fans who are stunned by the havoc Mini-Mart has wrought, "That, in fact, was the boogeyman."

[awh™]

ex-Phillie news:

MLBTR is reporting that the Dodgers are "considering" signing MYoung as their regular 3B.

No, that's not an error.

Good luck to him.

[awh™]

Matt Gelb has an article up over at philly.com about the Phillies and what they are doing:

http://www.philly.com/philly/sports/phillies/20131215_Amaro_has_Phils_stuck_between_rebuilding_and_contending.html

Good job by him and an interesting read.

[Jack]

Clout: If it makes you feel better, I was against *both* the Papelbon and Adams signings at the time, and continue to think them both silly moves made by a GM who doesn't know what he's doing.

[Iceman]

JTroll with one of the biggest lies ever told by anyone on this site.

Oddly enough, Jack actually has some room to gloat, as he was one of the only people cautiously optimistic about the Adams signing- as opposed to wildly optimistic. But he absolutely was in favor of the signing and called it a good move at the time.

[Dr. Freud]

Anyone who gets up and spends his Saturday morning fact checking a statement by an anonymous poster on an obscure baseball blog about what was said a year ago about Mike Adams needs to spend time on my couch.

[Jack]

Iceman: Ok, maybe I was hyperbolic. I was strongly against Papelbon. I guess I was only *relatively* against Adams, as I was at best lukewarm on it, while everyone else was head over heels. You're right, though, that I called it a solid enough move at the time. I think I also become more against it once I saw that Uehara signed for only 1-year and $5 million with the Sox, considering I preferred him to Adams anyway.

Here is a quote I made on the day Adams was signed:

______________________________

How can you all be so sure that Adams will be good? Have you looked at his declining K rate and declining velocity and the fact that he's coming off surgery?

I don't get this "well, now the 8th inning is solved." The 8th inning is only solved if Adams is healthy and very good. How can all of you be so sure that he will be, knowing what we know about him and about reliever performance being so random?

Posted by: Jack | Saturday, December 15, 2012 at 10:33 AM

[jr.]

Gelb used a lot of words to say politely that Rube is a Boob and a Moron. His press pass may be in jeopardy.

[lorecore]

"How can you all be so sure that Adams will be good?"

The Phillies medical staff told me so.

[Coach Kent Murphy]

It's a shame. If rube and Davy would have followed the plan in 2012. Then this yr would be the year we trend upwards. But handing out multi M contracts like it Halloween. This is a Drek. I can't even type all I want to say. So disgusted with this team. Would have been better keeping Shane and hunter in OF.

[curt]

I imagine Rube will be gone after another bad team experienced a substantial decline in attendance next summer. The only real question is whether the Phils will reach for an outsider again, or use one of the in-house losers.

[aksmith]

Ed Wade - The Return

Ed Wade - The Revenge

Ed Wade - Faster and Furiouser

Dumb and Dumber and Even Dumberer

Working on a title for my latest horror screenplay. Anyone have a favorite?

[GTown_Dave]

Gelb's column absolutely nailed it. The situation in which the Phillies find themselves is entirely one of Amaro's making. He has been w/ the club long enough to understand that payroll will NEVER exceed projected revenue in any given season, & he squandered the flexibility gained by multiple years of overflow crowds, merchandising bonanzas & trips to the Postseason by blindly throwing money at dubious FAs, & a rapidly aging core.

What the idiot fails to grasp is that the time for "creative thinking" was 3-4 years ago. There is zero chance this franchise competes again unless/until r00b gets canned, & the FO discovers someone w/ both the brains & balls to admit defeat & begin rebuilding from the farm system up.

[cut_fastball]

If David Montgomery is making all these inane, panic-stricken decisions ("sell"! "buy"! "build"! "dump those salaries"!) with hardly a lick of rhyme or reason - and I seriously believe that he is - Amaro's brio and bluster works perfectly as Montgomery's foil.

The Phillies could be a 70 win team for 8 - 10 years (pray hard they somehow draft well!) and we'd still have RAJ "at the helm". What needs to go - and I can't stress this enough - is the bleeping' ownership group. Every. Last. One.

If John S. Middleton has some serious coin and loves baseball, let him buy in with another team. He's seriously tainted here by too many years of stupid personal moves.

If the current ownership group sold (yay!) would Mike Arbuckle consider returning as GM?