On Tuesday, Keith Law called the Phillies' 2013 draft one of the best in all of baseball and ranked their farm system 14th overall. On Wednesday, he included three Phillies prospects in his annual preseason top-100.
J.P. Crawford, the Phils' 2013 meal ticket, checked in at No. 46.
"The Phillies may have just nabbed an impact player in the middle of the diamond," Law wrote. "The Phils aren't afraid of slow-development guys, which Crawford appeared to be as a physically immature player who had present speed and some feel to hit.
"For these reasons his performance in the Gulf Coast League was surprising -- he finished second in the league in OBP and walked as often as he struck out, all while playing above-average defense at shortstop."
Crawford hit .345 with a .443 on-base percentage in 168 plate appearances with the Gulf Coast League Phillies. He earned a promotion to Class-A Lakewood, where he hit .208 with seven walks and 10 strikeouts in 60 plate appearances.
He was believed to be the top SS of the 2013 draft class and he certainly looked like it in his first brief year in professional baseball.
Crawford was the only Phils prospect to make Law's top-50. Maikel Franco came in at No. 63, and Jesse Biddle was No. 77.
Law on Franco: "While his recognition of off-speed stuff is poor, he has enough hand-eye coordination to foul off some of those pitches and keep himself alive to hunt for another fastball. His hands get very high and deep, and between that and his raw strength he has at least grade-65 power, although he doesn't always get to it between that deep load and inconsistent hip rotation.
"Franco's main problem right now is position; he is a poor defender at third, a well below-average runner with thick lower legs whose first step was too slow for the position, although he has a 70 or so arm."
The overall assessment? "[Franco's] an everyday player as a first baseman who should hit .290 or so with a low OBP but 25-30 homers a year, which might get him into the occasional All-Star game along the way."
Law sees Biddle as a No. 3 starter with the potential to be better. He was impressed by the swinging strikes the lefty's fastball induced, and noted that left-handed batters struggle to pick up his slow hook. Law says his changeup needs work, and Biddle said that himself in the Phillies' clubhouse two weeks ago.
"I'm definitely gonna have to ask about Cole Hamels' changeup," Biddle said. "He's got an amazing changeup, one that I've admired for a long time, and I know if mine could be a little bit more like that it would definitely help me."
I advocate a $50M bun. Imagine the room for condiments.
Posted by: LorecorE
Don't forget the f-i-i-i-i-i-i-i-xins.
Posted by: Kenny Powers | Wednesday, January 29, 2014 at 03:51 PM
I mentioned this before, but it's worth noting again.
Here's a list of farmhands who've graduated to the MLB level with the Cardinals the past 4 years:
Allen Craig, Matt Carpenter, Matt Adams, Jon Jay, Pete Kozma, Dan Descalso, Kolten Wong, Shelby Miller, Lance Lynn, Trevor Rosenthal, Joe Kelly, Mike Wacha, Fernando Salas.
How does that group compare to Phillies farmhands who've debuted the past 4 years?
Posted by: clout | Wednesday, January 29, 2014 at 04:01 PM
Definitely respect Klaw and appreciate the commentary, but I find it hard to believe that if he was still with an MLB team that he'd be willing to trade away Maikel Franco for JP Crawford, even though he has JP ranked ~20 spots higher.
Posted by: LorecorE | Wednesday, January 29, 2014 at 04:06 PM
Seeing a list like that, you might think one of three things:
1. Maybe we should poach one of their assistants and put him in charge of drafting. But then there's a problem. If he worked for the Cards, there's little chance he'd be a former Mariner's official. And very little chance that he'd be an aged, former Phillies official. Because the only folks who know how to win are former Mariners and Phillies.
2. Maybe we should have our analytics guy look at those players and see what the Cards are doing, then replicate it. Okay, stop laughing.
3. Maybe we should poach one of their player development guys and put him in charge of the Phillies player development. Okay, stop laughing.
I wonder how many decades of Cardinal excellence it will take before the Phillies decide on any of these three ideas?
Posted by: aksmith | Wednesday, January 29, 2014 at 04:10 PM
The failure rate for players who've never played above single A is far, far higher than for players who've already done well in AA, even among highly rated prospects.
Posted by: clout | Wednesday, January 29, 2014 at 04:13 PM
The Cardinals know "The Secret". Set Wade to the task of filching it.
Posted by: Meyer | Wednesday, January 29, 2014 at 04:27 PM
I'm both an ex-Cardinal and ex-Phillie. Hire me.
Posted by: Tim McCarver | Wednesday, January 29, 2014 at 04:34 PM
JP Crawford only had a PRODUCTION value of 0.65 last year in the minors and Amaro is definitely going to have Joe Jordan make sure that increases.
More contact, less walks.
Posted by: MG | Wednesday, January 29, 2014 at 04:34 PM
Biddle needs to refine his changeup? Go figure they get rid of Dubee and the one thing he was really touted to be able to do.
Posted by: MG | Wednesday, January 29, 2014 at 04:36 PM
WTF is going on here.
2 new threads in less than 24 hours?
Posted by: awh™, Founder, Hire Jamie Moyer Club | Wednesday, January 29, 2014 at 04:39 PM
In fairness to the Phillies drafting and development people, the Cardinals have been on a ridiculous hot streak in terms of their farm system. If they've developed a secret formula for finding can't-miss prospects even when they're picking at the back of the first round, I'm sure every team in baseball would like to have it. More likely, it's a combination of good scouting, good development and good luck. The Phillies themselves had one of these streaks between 2003-2006, when they produced Utley, Howard, Chooch, Hamels, Madson and Bourn, picked up Victorino as a Rule 5 pick, and even had enough surplus to trade 2 future major league starters in Gio Gonzalez and Gavin Floyd for, essentially, nothing as it turned out.
That's 8 future All Stars and two pretty serviceable role players passing through the system in a very short span. Sometimes things just happen like that. Then, sometimes, you just go through a stretch where guys blow out their shoulder, tear their achillies, suffer concussions and contract whooping cough.
Posted by: Andrew Cleveland Alexander | Wednesday, January 29, 2014 at 04:53 PM
I like Law and think he knows a lot about the game. I was a little surprised that he put Franco as low as he did. MLB Network did a top 50 prospect show last Thursday and Franco was ranked 26th.
Franco's numbers at Clearwater and Reading speak for themselves. What impressed me was his BA went up .30 points when promoted and his SO rate went from 13.49% down to 10.62%. The drop wasn't huge but still significant, as I believe going from A+ ball to AA is the biggest jump in the minors. His OPS was the same at both levels. The troubling stat was his inability to draw BB's. His 6.9% BB ratio at Clearwater was bad for a power hitter, but then he dropped off to 3.4% at Reading.
It's important to realize Franco's still only 21 and has just 292 PA's at AA. Given some time and good coaching - PLEASE, I believe Franco can be a force at the major league level starting in 2015.
Posted by: Biggs | Wednesday, January 29, 2014 at 05:13 PM
The lack of walks is a huge concern for Franco, especially because Franco's value is almost completely in his bat. So I think where they have Franco is just about right.
People who say "well who cares about the low walks because he has low strikeouts too," I think are missing the point. Walks are valuable in and of themselves, regardless of how much a guy strikes out. Pure BB numbers are probably more important than BB/K numbers, though of course I think it speaks to his ability to hit for a solid average and his above-average hands that he doesn't strike out very much.
Also, it's incredibly rare for a plus power hitter to be a low-walk, low-strikeout guy, which basically describes Franco last year. So something has to give. Of the top 30 guys in SLG last season, only two had a K rate under 15% and a walk rate under 10%: Robinson Cano and Adrian Beltre. That sort of hitting skillset just doesn't end up happening very often. The ideal scenario, of course, is that the strikeouts stay low, the power stays high, and the walks rise, in which case you have a perfect hitter. But we'll see just have to see about that.
Posted by: Jack | Wednesday, January 29, 2014 at 05:34 PM
I'll echo Jack's thoughts on Franco's bat. Plus, Franco's value is affected if his defense forces a move across the diamond.
LorecorE asks whether Law would trade Franco for Crawford. 1) I doubt he'd argue this is how the list should be used. 2) There are many circumstances in which that trade might make sense.
I believe Law has stated in the past that he has a bias to ceiling. In fact, he writes, "I've made one adjustment in my ranking philosophy in recent years, favoring higher-upside prospects over lower-ceiling prospects who are closer to the majors. This better reflects how these players are valued now by front offices and scouting departments, and gives me a chance to deliver more information on prospects whose names or scouting reports might be new to you."
Posted by: Kendrick Appreciation Society | Wednesday, January 29, 2014 at 06:01 PM
I don't care about walks. I want Production™ dammit!
Posted by: Ruben Amaro, Jr. | Wednesday, January 29, 2014 at 06:23 PM
Jack - Franco had a Production™ value of 3.43 last year.
To insist he is a lower-rated prospect than Crawford is ridiculous.
Posted by: MG | Wednesday, January 29, 2014 at 06:47 PM
Yes clout, the Cardinals have an incredible scouting dept and farm system. I dont think anyone on earth would disagree with that.
Posted by: NEPP | Wednesday, January 29, 2014 at 06:50 PM
Hmmm... and yet since 2008, they've won and been to as many WS as the Phillies.
I rest my case.
Posted by: Cyclic | Wednesday, January 29, 2014 at 06:56 PM
***The failure rate for players who've never played above single A is far, far higher than for players who've already done well in AA, even among highly rated prospects***
clout and I often agree on prospects and this again is 100% correct. That jump to AA is a huge, HUGE barrier even for the best prospects.
Posted by: NEPP | Wednesday, January 29, 2014 at 06:56 PM
***2. Maybe we should have our analytics guy look at those players and see what the Cards are doing, then replicate it. Okay, stop laughing.***
You want to know the big secret with the Cardinals drafting theory? Seriously? I can tell you...
They draft guys that can actually play baseball and hit and then teach them the other stuff (defense, etc). They have superior instructors in the minors and they had a fantastic pitching program that was unified from top to bottom because they simply handed the keys to Dave Duncan on that. Same with hitting...its the same at every level in their Org. There's none of the crap we have where its yet another washed up Good Old Boy at each level with their own plan and the pitching coach at Lehigh saying one thing and Dubee saying another, etc, etc.
Its weird, huh?
Posted by: NEPP | Wednesday, January 29, 2014 at 07:02 PM
NEPP - It's funny, but I have seen that discussed about the Cards system. Maybe that's why they get such good pitching and hitting to the majors and can't seem to find a shortstop without free agency.
But I have to wonder why instruction at all levels, especially in pitching, isn't standardized in every organization. And I know that it's not, especially with the Phils. I remember that the Dodgers used to do this very well with position players. They had standardized their instruction all the way through the system when other teams hadn't. LaSorda used to talk about what a huge advantage it was when players got to the majors.
Posted by: aksmith | Wednesday, January 29, 2014 at 07:15 PM
I hear they just use Tom Emanski videos.
Posted by: Cyclic | Wednesday, January 29, 2014 at 07:17 PM
It is unified in a lot of organizations but when it isn't, it tends to be a sign of organizational dysfunction.
Like what we see in our Organization.
Posted by: NEPP | Wednesday, January 29, 2014 at 07:20 PM
The wide variance on where Franco ranks from list to list is because some people think he has an arm bar in his swing, others don't, so there's some disagreement as to how well his swing will translate to the bigs.
Posted by: jbird | Wednesday, January 29, 2014 at 07:38 PM
The term 'standardization' is like the term 'consistent' (which Cholly used often). Neither means great or good (or bad, for that matter).
Posted by: Bonehead | Wednesday, January 29, 2014 at 07:47 PM
Great, if the jump from A to AA is the toughest, we won't be seeing Larry Greene until 2026.
Posted by: Jackamac | Wednesday, January 29, 2014 at 08:11 PM
I hear they use the Speed Hitter training bat.
Posted by: Dickie Thong | Wednesday, January 29, 2014 at 08:17 PM
Made some homemade meatballs and been gassy all day. Farm system is one Rube move away from 14 to 22nd. We needs more utility fielders.
Posted by: PLM | Wednesday, January 29, 2014 at 10:37 PM
repost:
i like willard preacher's theme for the season: "catch(ing) lightning in a bottle"
maybe the marketing dept can create a give-away based on that. i'd make it an antique-style bottle, in blue glass like the old Ball canning jars. a raised design could feature Ben Franklin's image along with the sponsers info and a prominent P. good for candy or cut flowers.
Posted by: bullit | Wednesday, January 29, 2014 at 10:39 PM
KAS: "1) I doubt he'd argue this is how the list should be used. 2) There are many circumstances in which that trade might make sense."
Possibly, but to me that's what a prospect list should be, ranking of their perceived ceiling/floor and a final value.
What would be the point of the list if #60 is too valuable to trade for #40?
Posted by: LorecorE | Wednesday, January 29, 2014 at 10:42 PM
phillibuster must work for the dodgers:
Their newly signed Cuban 2B Guerrero is being questioned about his ability to field the position well enough to make the team. As an alternative, the Dodgers are attempting to lure Michael Young out of retirement to play 2B.
The ol' "doubt the defense of the better player and then counter with someone defense is evenworse" strategy. Nice
Posted by: LorecorE | Wednesday, January 29, 2014 at 10:54 PM
PADMY goes to TinselTown .
Don't they still have Davey Lopes?
Even with the age difference, he'd have to be the better fielder.
Posted by: Bubba | Wednesday, January 29, 2014 at 11:07 PM
bap: noticed you cited your aversion to signing Burnett because of how you doubt the Phils would get 2012-13 Burnett, and instead a worse version. Without looking at his numbers, I just took your word that his last two years were big outliers, but thats hardly the case.
He's had two seasons in the last 10 years where he's had a ERA+ under 100 (2010-11 with Yanks). Every other year has been between 104-119 ERA. Also had pitched 6 straight seasons of +30 GS.
He had a 107 ERA+ the last two seasons, and a career 105 ERA+. Of course any pitcher can fall apart, especially guys over 35, but Burnett is one of the most consistent guys you can find so I don't buy the 'dont know what you'll get argument'.
Posted by: LorecorE | Wednesday, January 29, 2014 at 11:20 PM
Only 13 pitchers have started at least 30 games each of the last 6 seasons. Burnett is one. To my surprise, Ubaldo Jiminez is another.
Posted by: LorecorE | Wednesday, January 29, 2014 at 11:23 PM
lore: Well, this is going to be one of those "it depends where you put the cutoff line" debates. Over the last 10 years, Burnett has been consistent. Over the last 4, not so much. Nonetheless, Cyclic & NEPP have brought me around on the idea of signing him. But I hate the idea of a 2-year contract to a 37-year old, and that's probably what it would take to get him. And since it's RAJ making the deal, that 2-year deal would likely turn into a 3-year deal with a 4th year option of some sort.
Posted by: bay_area_phan | Thursday, January 30, 2014 at 01:02 AM
Since Burnett has been talking retirement since September there's some reason to believe both he and the market are looking at a one year deal.
Posted by: Hugh Mulcahy | Thursday, January 30, 2014 at 06:37 AM
Like frozen water lines we won't the gush of Starting Pitchers surfacing until Spring Thaw.
Posted by: Meyer | Thursday, January 30, 2014 at 07:19 AM
i'm all for a 1 year deal. mb with an option for a second.
Posted by: bullit | Thursday, January 30, 2014 at 07:37 AM
My fingers are frozen. Ok, let's get it done Ruben. 1 year with an option. $14.9M. Kendrick will have a number to strive toward next year.
Posted by: Meyer | Thursday, January 30, 2014 at 08:03 AM
just 28 days to the first televised ST game vs blue jays @ 1:05. we better sign jamie soon.
Posted by: bullit | Thursday, January 30, 2014 at 09:35 AM
just 28 days to the first televised ST game vs blue jays @ 1:05. we better sign jamie soon.
I nominate this for the best off-season Beerleaguer post.
Posted by: Edmundo | Thursday, January 30, 2014 at 09:40 AM
I should have added "in spite of my feeling of dread concerning this upcoming season."
I'll just keep replaying "Lightning in a Bottle" (sung to the similarly named Police tune) in my head in hopes that it comes true.
Posted by: Edmundo | Thursday, January 30, 2014 at 09:43 AM
The entire idea of a Burnett signing is that he'd be open to a one year deal. Maybe he'd even be open to a one year option for a low buyout. When a guy is considering retirement, short term contracts should be possible. I guess Andy Pettitte would be the example. I think he went one year at a time the last couple of seasons, then retired. Good way to go out.
Posted by: aksmith | Thursday, January 30, 2014 at 10:06 AM
Colon got a two year deal pitching at age 41 and 42. There's no reason to believe if Burnett's going to pitch he'll settle for one year. It makes no sense. He could probably get a 2 year deal with a third year option. At the very least he could get two guaranteed years. If he doesn't want to pitch beyond this year he can retire. If he does want to pitch he maximized his two good years in Pittsburgh and doesn't have to negotiate again next year. The Phils have no moves left unless there's a minor league deal they want to sign with someone.
Posted by: steve | Thursday, January 30, 2014 at 10:24 AM
Fangraphs' Marc Hulet posted his Phillies top 10. No surprises (franco/biddle/crawford/mag) but I like the blurbs that he accompanies with the ranking. One of the better summaries not behind a paywall:
http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/2014-top-10-prospects-philadelphia-phillies/
Had Ceasr at #8 but called him a 'very good defensive 2B that flashes above average CF'. Sounds like the more recent scouting reports are all touting his defensive value a lot more than they had in the past. Anything pre-2013 usually have him as just average.
Posted by: LorecorE | Thursday, January 30, 2014 at 10:26 AM
"Had Ceasr at #8 but called him a 'very good defensive 2B that flashes above average CF'."
I must have been looking away during those flashes. For that matter, I must also have been looking away during the very good defense at 2B.
Posted by: bay_area_phan | Thursday, January 30, 2014 at 11:11 AM
I must have been looking away during those flashes. For that matter, I must also have been looking away during the very good defense at 2B.
_________________________________________-
Or you are just generally down on everything
Posted by: The Truth Injection | Thursday, January 30, 2014 at 11:22 AM
thanks Edmundo. quite a few of the ST games are on TV. i can hardly wait.
Posted by: bullit | Thursday, January 30, 2014 at 11:46 AM
If it makes anyone feel better, the Dodgers seem to have some people as blind/deaf/dumb as the Phillies FO.
"Saxon said the team is so concerned about Guerrero's fielding abilities that they're trying to convince Michael Young to put off retirement and return as the team's stopgap second baseman"
Posted by: PhillyCuban | Thursday, January 30, 2014 at 11:55 AM
PhillyCuban... link please.
Posted by: awh™, Founder, Hire Jamie Moyer Club | Thursday, January 30, 2014 at 11:57 AM
Didn't think M. Young was as bad as advertised defensively but after watching him last year at 3B for an extended stretch you realized he was.
Literally it seemed every ball hit to the right was an automatic hit and very close to being an a double. Occasionally he would stop a ball and hold the runner to a single.
Curious to see how Asche does this year. He seemed to struggle the most making relatively routine plays but had soft hands and an above average arm. Also is athletic enough right now to have above average range there too.
Posted by: MG | Thursday, January 30, 2014 at 12:09 PM
the vast majority of asche's throws seemed to be very accurate, chest high.
Posted by: bullit | Thursday, January 30, 2014 at 12:14 PM
I would pay to watch Michael Young field 2B...just for the sheer hilarity of it.
Posted by: NEPP | Thursday, January 30, 2014 at 12:26 PM
My favorite part of M. Young fielding 3B would be when a ball would literally be hit 12 inches to either side of him and he'd react too late to even knock it down. Utley's lawnchair had more range than him.
The only plus thing he did down there was cleanly field balls hit directly at him. Add in Rollins' declining range at SS and then Dom's adventures in LF and way more balls went for hits on the left side than ever should have.
Posted by: NEPP | Thursday, January 30, 2014 at 12:28 PM
Burnett will go somewhere other than Phila.
Posted by: D Pat | Thursday, January 30, 2014 at 12:38 PM
You know it was bad last with M. Young even when LA/Franske would sarcastically make a comment about balls hit to him that should have been outs and weren't.
Posted by: MG | Thursday, January 30, 2014 at 12:48 PM
D Pat - It is certainly likely that Burnett will go somewhere other than Philadelphia. In fact, it is likely that every good free agent player will go somewhere other than Philadelphia. Philly has become a second class destination only a couple of years after it had become a prime destination. But Burnett wants to stay near Baltimore and it's likely he'll want to stay in the NL. So, unless the Nats are looking for their 10th starter, the Phillies would be a somewhat logical choice. All that's necessary is for Rube to get off his duff and ownership to okay the payment, or we'll never find out if he would have come to Philly.
Posted by: aksmith | Thursday, January 30, 2014 at 12:50 PM
Incredibly, Young was actually a defensive upgrade over one of the 3rd basemen the Phillies used in 2012 -- namely, Ty Wigginton.
Posted by: bay_area_phan | Thursday, January 30, 2014 at 01:03 PM
Atlanta to Baltimore is under 2 hrs by air...and they could definitely use another SP.
They're only at a projected payroll of $90.9 million right now too.
Posted by: NEPP | Thursday, January 30, 2014 at 01:06 PM
Ticket sales:
I have received 4 email tickets offers the last 4 days from the Phils and a ton the last 2 weeks. Did renew my Sunday ticket package but I bet sales have cratered this offseason.
Last year they were just a bit over 3M (8th in MLB) and a tad over 37,190. That is way down (over 18%) from when they averaged 45,440 in '11.
I bet their ticket renewal rates have been horrendous and as bad as any time since CBP opened this offseason. Terrible season comign off the most boring offseason they maybe have had in 20 years.
Best-case scenario is the team gets out to a solid start, their competitive through the summer (above .500), and overall their ticket sales decline modestly overall. Say 5-7%.
Worst-case scearno is the team has a slow start in April, tailspins during Interleague play, and is in a pure sell mode at the trading deadline. Worst case is 18-20% decline in ticket sales.
Likely will fall somewhere in between even a 12-15% drop would mean they end up at around 2.5-2.6 which would likely mean they finish at 13-15 in overall MLB attendance.
Attendance dropping by almost one third in 3 years and translates to 1.0-1.1M fans. Conservatively I would assume $50/revenue per fan that attends a game on the top-line and more likely ~$80. Maybe even a bit higher when you include all revenue streams and the high price of Phils' tickets (4th in MLB last year)
Even with the additional TV revenues and other sources that is a gate revenue decline of $50M at least in just 3 years and possibly close to $70-$80M.
Posted by: MG | Thursday, January 30, 2014 at 01:07 PM
LorecorE: I'd say that all things being equal, Keith Law would rather have the 15th prospect over the 16th prospect in his system, but when you discuss trades, all things are NEVER equal.
Franco may be perceived as more important to some than others if they have a greater need at 3B... or if they believe Franco could stay there... or if they need help sooner.
Crawford may be perceived as more important to some than others if they have a greater need at SS... or if they have time to wait on a prospect.
Keith Law is ABSOLUTELY saying he believes Crawford's ceiling is higher than Franco's... but ceiling isn't the only consideration, Law also recognizes a degree to which a player is likely to achieve that ceiling.
Posted by: Kendrick Appreciation Society | Thursday, January 30, 2014 at 01:07 PM
MG's annual analysis of ticket sales revenue rivals Keith Law's prospect rankings for most looked forward to analysis of the offseason.
Posted by: Redburb | Thursday, January 30, 2014 at 01:11 PM
aksmith, getting ownership to OK an eight figure contract for Burnett will be a tough sell. All the FO actions and inactions this winter say they're not overly concerned with the product they put out on the field.
Posted by: Biggs | Thursday, January 30, 2014 at 01:11 PM
THE FCI (Fan Cost Index) was $76 and change last year. That's what the average MLB fan spent at a game, including the ticket. The Phils lost 6,831 fans per game compared to 2012, not including no-shows. This comes to a 42 million dollar decline in revenue.
Posted by: Biggs | Thursday, January 30, 2014 at 01:18 PM
Biggs: Not sure how it works in Philly, but ancillary costs are not always revenue sources for the teams.
Posted by: Kendrick Appreciation Society | Thursday, January 30, 2014 at 01:24 PM
Redburb - I always though the numbers Forbes put out every year annually stink.
http://www.forbes.com/teams/philadelphia-phillies/
They had the average fan revenue at just $44 last year which seems a piss poor estimate (kind of what most of what Forbes puts out which is largely sensationalist trash and capitalism fanboy stuff without much analytical or journalistic rigor).
Fan Cost Index puts out a weighted-cost average for tickets prices every spring and last April the Phils #4 in MLB at $37.42. Only the Red Sox, Yanks, and Cubs were more expensive. There number is probably off a bit due to the variable pricing the Phils introduced by I would bet it is within 5-7% of the average.
They had the average experience at $257.16 for a family of 4 ($64.29). I would imagine that is a lot more accurate than the laughable Forbes number although a bit lower because I see a ton of fans who brings their own concessions or a large part of them.
Posted by: MG | Thursday, January 30, 2014 at 01:29 PM
***but ancillary costs are not always revenue sources for the teams.***
Exactly. They likely dont get 100% of the parking revenue and things like food get split with the vendor obviously to cover costs. MLB Merchandize revenue gets thrown into the big pot and divided evenly between all 30 clubs, etc etc.
Posted by: NEPP | Thursday, January 30, 2014 at 01:35 PM
MG - I like the ticket revenue analysis you do. I wonder how much it factors into what the team will do going forward with the additional ad revenue from the TV deal.
For those who don't go to Fangraphs often, there's a good Q&A with Jesse Biddle.
http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/qa-jesse-biddle-philadelphia-phillies-pitching-prospect/
Posted by: Redburb | Thursday, January 30, 2014 at 01:39 PM
Below is where I got the $76.53 figure for MLB's Fan Cost Index. I don't know if the Phils are higher or lower than the average team, but by clicking on the Team Marketing Report it opens up a .pdf file where the info is more detailed.
http://www.crainsdetroit.com/article/20130402/NEWS/130409967/whats-a-tigers-fan-worth-to-the-team-73-85-per-game-index-says
As to the actual amount of the money the Phils lose from lesser attendance that's a good point Kendrick AS. I obviously don't know all the arrangements and the number I posted was total lost revenue, not necessarily Phillies lost revenue. Thanks for pointing that out.
Posted by: Biggs | Thursday, January 30, 2014 at 01:46 PM
What strike me the most notable about Franco when I saw him at Reading last year was how hard and violently he swings especially for a guy who still somewhat more lanky than your classically-chiseled power hitter with a huge upper body.
Just wonder wonder when he starts to see breaking ball MLB caliber stuff if he will be able to generate that kind of raw power he did last year by swing so violently. Still alot of guys at AA with marginal breaking stuff or working on a 3rd pitch (changeup, slider, curve) especially in the rotation.
Bet bottom dollar too given how backwards the Phils minor league organization appears to be run that he has received different instructions and his head has been swinging from what he has heard at 3 different stops in the past year plus.
One thing that did strike me about Aumont's comments last year was how radically different the instruction he received at the MLB level from Rod Nichols and what he got at Lehigh last year. Probably not that uncommon in MLB but it seems to be a real problem with the Phils.
From listening to the Cards' GM last year and articles they right out there, there is a very and highly structured organizational philosophy that is implemented from the top-down, reviewed on a very regular basis, and progress tracked on a player-by-player basis and across the team to see how things and progressing & what has deviated. Also heavily rely upon video analysis too and have 1 person who job is to do that full-time.
That really isn't 'analytics' per se. Just really more a supply chain logistics optimization and standardization approach that reminded me of what ERP vendors were pitching in the 90s and what I have read a bunch of case studies on.
Bet that the Phils track little to nothing in a similar fashion and even their 'organizational draft philosophy' is largely generalist and inconsistently applied across the organization once a player is drafted.
Posted by: MG | Thursday, January 30, 2014 at 01:50 PM
AK~ You're absolutely correct. And if RAJ wanted to get off his duff and sign AJ, he would have done it already.
Posted by: D Pat | Thursday, January 30, 2014 at 01:55 PM
Or Burnett is angling for the best possible deal. Things don't happen inside a vacuum except in DPat world.
Posted by: Redburb | Thursday, January 30, 2014 at 02:01 PM
Dang, the Phillies missed out on Bruce Chen.
1 year/$4.25 million to KC
Posted by: Cyclic | Thursday, January 30, 2014 at 02:05 PM
Different instruction at different levels. It's been discussed here recently and I'm trying to find examples of this other than Aumont. Are there any other recent examples? I honestly cannot find any other recent examples of different instruction being taught at different levels. I remember someone saying on here that Gio Gonzalez made a comment one time, but that would've been 7 years ago.
So 2 players in 7 years and now it's accepted as gospel that every minor leaguer is being told something different at each stop within the Phillies farm system? I find that very hard to fathom and I'm wondering if someone here can shed a little more light on why this keeps being brought up.
Posted by: Redburb | Thursday, January 30, 2014 at 02:08 PM
Gavin Floyd was just a late bloomer.
Posted by: Meyer | Thursday, January 30, 2014 at 02:19 PM
MG - Other than Aumont, what other minor leaguer has explicitly stated he has received conflicting instructions from different levels of the minor leagues?
There have been quite a few posters who have mentioned this recently and I would really like to hear examples of why they believe this.
And saying that the system isn't producing anyone is an example of conflicting instruction is a totally separate issue. That in no way is indicitive of conflicting instruction.
Posted by: Redburb | Thursday, January 30, 2014 at 02:30 PM
Dom Brown clearly stated that with 8 years instruction he has made great strides in the art of snagging a fly ball.
Posted by: Meyer | Thursday, January 30, 2014 at 02:51 PM
With Dom, every time fielding a fly ball is like the first time.
Posted by: NEPP | Thursday, January 30, 2014 at 02:55 PM
Not to be snarky, but the way Dom Brown fields fly balls looks like the reason some ballplayers take adderall.
Posted by: aksmith | Thursday, January 30, 2014 at 03:02 PM
I think your right. Dom seems to lose focus on all slicing balls. I think he closes his eyes when he runs or just blinks a lot.
Posted by: Meyer | Thursday, January 30, 2014 at 03:06 PM
So did a little research and interestingly enough, over the past two years there's been an effort to have Franco go more to the opposite field than to be pull happy. Franco has moved 3 levels in 2 years. So this actually goes against what MG said in his 1:50 post. There is a consistent level of instruction across multiple levels.
Posted by: Redburb | Thursday, January 30, 2014 at 03:16 PM
Should probably be worded that there was a consistent level of instruction for Franco across multiple levels.
Posted by: Redburb | Thursday, January 30, 2014 at 03:26 PM
Todd Zolecki (@ToddZolecki)
Matt Stairs will interview for Phillies' broadcasting job. http://atmlb.com/1baZPoX
Posted by: Dickie Thong | Thursday, January 30, 2014 at 03:39 PM
I have no opinion about Matt Stairs' bona fides as a tv analyst, but I definitely have an opinion about a process in which all 5 candidates who have been interviewed are ex-Phillies players. I think you can guess what that opinion might be.
Posted by: bay_area_phan | Thursday, January 30, 2014 at 03:43 PM
"Different instruction at different levels. It's been discussed here recently and I'm trying to find examples of this other than Aumont. Are there any other recent examples?"
RedBurb, most players keep their mouths shut for fear or "organizational repercussions".
Keep this in mind:
Despite the lack of "examples" the Phillies did recently replace their minor league pitching coordinator. That suggests something was amiss, despite the hard evidence of multiple public complaints.
It suggests to me that after Aumont's outburst, "perhaps" the FO was mature enough to "look within" and quietly polled players at the different MiL levels as to how consistent is the instruction and coaching. Then, upon hearing the responses they decided to take action.
Pure speculation on my part, but maybe the org isn't quite as dysfunctional as they appear.
Posted by: awh, Founder, Hire Jamie Moyer Club | Thursday, January 30, 2014 at 03:45 PM
Matt Stairs? I'm on the Moyer bandwagon, but Stairs could be good too.
Posted by: awh, Founder, Hire Jamie Moyer Club | Thursday, January 30, 2014 at 03:47 PM
In other news, Pat Burrell and Eric Bruntlett are also in line to be interviewed...
Pretty much any ex-Phillie who is now retired and who had a pivotal part of the WS blue-ray will be part of this process.
Posted by: NEPP | Thursday, January 30, 2014 at 03:52 PM
Put me in the "Stairs and Moyer" camp. I'd rather have 2 color guys and jettison TBag. On TV I can see what's going on and don't need anyone explaining it to me (or droning on and on about Phanatic dangle hats).
Posted by: Willard Preacher | Thursday, January 30, 2014 at 03:54 PM
awh - Good point. I'm not leaning one way or the other. It just didn't seem sound enough for me to see the position MG and others were taking based on Aumont. I want to see more examples of this.
Did they ever replace that position by the way?
Posted by: Redburb | Thursday, January 30, 2014 at 03:55 PM
The Phillies prospective TV color guy candidate list only confirms what we all have suspected about the on-the-field product, as well. They're looking to get by on nostalgia for a year or so to keep some semblance of attention while they wait out some of these awful contracts they, themselves, doled out.
Posted by: Willard Preacher | Thursday, January 30, 2014 at 03:56 PM
I guess no one realizes that Comcast is doing the hiring of the color guy.
Posted by: Redburb | Thursday, January 30, 2014 at 03:59 PM
WP, I'm with you. Bag TBag, and ho with Moyer and Stairs.
The back and forth could be tremendous!
Posted by: awh | Thursday, January 30, 2014 at 04:22 PM
Redburb, yes. IIRC they replaced him w another org guy, so I'm not sure how much difference we'll see.
Posted by: awh | Thursday, January 30, 2014 at 04:24 PM
On paper, Moyer seems like he would be a terrific color analyst. But I'm reminded of the Simpsons episode where Smithers seeks Mr. Burns' permission to speak frankly. I suspect the Phillies have a similar arrangement with their tv announcers.
Posted by: bay_area_phan | Thursday, January 30, 2014 at 04:33 PM
Red~ I'm sure he is angling, but Roob ain't bitin'. This is a no-brainer move. They need rotation help & AJ fills a need. Seems like a match. But they way the Phils have operated this off-season, it doesn't seem likely. Only callin' it like I see it.
Posted by: D Pat | Thursday, January 30, 2014 at 05:12 PM
Zolecki thinks they should pursue Burnett. Make it so.
Posted by: aksmith | Thursday, January 30, 2014 at 05:15 PM
Oh, and I can already tell you why they won't sign Burnett, at least the reason they will give. "He wanted a no trade clause and we only do partial no trades."
Of course, this is crap. For one season, or at worst two, they need to bite the bullet. And I'm sure they could work out a partial no trade that includes only clubs on the East Coast as trade partners. Put a pin in the map on Baltimore and draw a reasonable circle and that's that.
Posted by: aksmith | Thursday, January 30, 2014 at 05:17 PM
A.J. BURNETT OR BUST!!!
Posted by: eksmithe | Thursday, January 30, 2014 at 05:22 PM
Well, Hindquarters has returned. How about your ideas to improve the team. Am I to assume you don't want Burnett?
Posted by: aksmith | Thursday, January 30, 2014 at 05:26 PM
It is completely unheard of that teams bring back ex players of theirs to be color analysts. Never seen that happen ever.
Posted by: The Truth Injection | Thursday, January 30, 2014 at 05:36 PM