Hits keep coming for Phillies' farm system

First Andrew Knapp needed Tommy John surgery. Then Roman Quinn ruptured his Achilles. Now, two Phillies pitchers with huge upside need shoulder surgery.

Adam Morgan had shoulder surgery this month, reports Todd Zolecki of MLB.com, and Shane Watson will also have shoulder surgery in January, according to Jim Salisbury of CSNPhilly.com.

Morgan, a 23-year-old lefty, has a 3.25 ERA, 8.3 K/9 and 2.4 BB/9 in 56 career minor-league games (55 starts). He experienced shoulder soreness midway through last season and was shut down and prescribed rest. Time off didn't do the trick and he went under the knife this month. He's expected to miss most of 2014, which is a big blow for a deep with such limited starting pitching depth as the Phillies.

Watson, a recent first-round pick, also suffers a setback, though the Phillies expect him to log some innings in 2014.

Comments

[bullit]

could the yankees also get some insurance money from the arod kerfuffle? that's more tanaka money. arod says he plans to show up at SP. should be interesting.

[Dickie Thong]

The 30-years war continues...

Scott Boras, one of the game's most powerful agents, believes the actual appraisal of the deal is worth about $200 million per year to the Phillies. Boras does not have direct knowledge of the Phillies' agreement but has examined similar contracts between other teams and networks.

Boras said the Phillies, like other teams, are taking advantage of a loophole in the sport's collective bargaining agreement.

"Having a percent ownership in the entity prevents them from exposure to revenue-sharing rules," Boras said, "which hurts other teams in the league from receiving the true payment."

http://articles.philly.com/2014-01-12/sports/46116366_1_phillies-deal-the-phillies-los-angeles-dodgers

[awh™]

BL ALERT:

Ryan Howard thread coming...

[Harry Callous]

What do Phillies need from Howard?

[bullit]

a miracle.

[Will Schweitzer]

Rather than spend top dollar on mediocre pitching, I'd rather see them just give Biddle the Kendrick/Happ treatment and see what he can do at the major league level.

He's not a particularly valuable trade chip and he's certainly not the ace of the future. Might as well get some use out of him while he's young and inexpensive. If he pulls a Jose Fernandez, great. If he fizzles out, he has plenty of options to send him back.

Either way, they'll be just as close to contending with him at the back end of the rotation than they would be spending top dollar on a mystery bag like Ubaldo.

[awh™]

Harry, they need a callous disregard for the feelings of the baseball or the opposing pitcher. He needs to callously deposit about 35-40 of those baseballs in the seats (in fair territory). He also needs to get hypnotized so he callously thinks there are men on base every time he comes to the plate.

That should do it for starters.

[Harry Callous]

The article and the people in it are dreaming. He is not "Comeback player of the year" material.

[Phillibuster]

Man, a guy goes away for the weekend and you have a debate about pedophilia detracting from accomplishments "out of the bedroom."

I'm not entirely sure how to take that (tongue firmly in cheek).

[bay_area_phan]

So, if Rickey Bo becomes the Phillies new tv announcer, I guess we can look forward to hearing incisive, erudite observations such as, "I really believe that Ryan Howard is the guy with the RBI experience."

[awh™]

Harry, Ricky Bo just proved to me why he is NOT the answer for the color commentator job.

I rarely go to Comcast, but because Ryno is so important I clicked the link.

Marshall Harris, when discussing Ruf as a platoon option for Howard, brought up Ruf's 69 MLB AB against LHP. Yes, SIXTY-NINE (69) whole AB. (Harris is obviously ignorant of sample size issues.) But Ricky Bo did nothing to educate him on the unreliability of small sample sizes.

Is this because Ricky Bo is ignorant also? Probably.

I have ZERO interest in watching a guy who doesn't have at least rudimentary knowledge of statistics, their reliability, and when to use them and when not to use them.

Baseball is a game of stats, Ricky Bo has played the game so he knows inner workings better than do I, and he quotes certain stats to back up his opinion.

But HTF can you claim to have knowledge of the game if you don't even know whether the stats your quoting are reliable in the first place?

More reason I don't watch the discussion shows on CSN and just stick to the games.

These guys are a bunch of gasbags who just ain't that smart and add very little.

[awh™]

bap, yeah, I heard that quote too. I guess he really IS that ignorant.

[awh™]

Hey, bap, is "RBI experience" the same as knowing what it's like to catch the last pitch of the season?

[ColonelTom]

MG: Amaro needs to sign another MLB starter to fill out the back of the rotation if the Phils want to increase their chances of at least putting a competitive team (.500 team) out there this season.

Exactly right. I'm cautiously optimistic that RAJ is waiting out the market and will either get Tanaka or one of the remaining name arms. The landing spots for eight-figure deals are drying up, so waiting for one guy to fall through the cracks and take a short-term "pillow" contract isn't a bad bet.

[awh™]

Colonel and MG, it is possible, of course, that r00b and the FOols only question about MAG is whether his arm will last the season.

They were, after all, willing to sign him to a $48MM contract before his medicals gave them caution and they got him at a reduced rate.

If you haven't seen him pitch:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Py566m8xD6M

So, assuming (I know, I know...) that MAG is healthy and can fill a rotation spot, we could be seeing

Lee
Hamels
MAG/KK/Faunandez
MAG/KK/Faunandez
MAG/KK/Faunandez... in any order from 3-5.

Pettibone, if healthy, provides depth as the #6, and you may see Biddle up before the end of the season.

Still, I think you're right: They do need to sign one more guy to fill out the back of the rotation if they want to make it through the season.

9 guys (not including Valdes' spot 'start') started at least one game for them in 2013, and 9 guys did so in 2012. Even in 2011, the "year of the pitcher", they still sent 7 guys on to the hill who got at least 8 starts.

They need at least one more guy who can toe the rubber.

[awh™]

With regard to starters did anyone see Zo's latest Q& A:

http://philadelphia.phillies.mlb.com/news/article/phi/phillies-inbox-will-jesse-biddle-get-a-look-for-the-starting-rotation-during-spring-training?ymd=20140110&content_id=66463692

Please note the bold type:

"Of the Phillies' top prospects, who will make an impact at the Major League level during the 2014 season?
-- Steve B., Carlisle, Pa.

Biddle has a chance for the reason I just mentioned -- if there is a breakdown in the rotation and he proves to the organization he deserves it. But keep an eye on Maikel Franco's spring. If Cody Asche should struggle and Franco continues to impress with his bat, Franco could get a look. Right-hander Ethan Martin and infielder Cesar Hernandez are still listed as prospects, although they played with the Phillies last season. Both could have roles on the team this season: Martin as a reliever (although the Phils said last month he will be stretched out as a starter this spring) and Hernandez as a utility player.

[NEPP]

I love that we're penciling Fausto into a rotation spot...really makes me feel good about our chances in 2014.

[NEPP]

***Martin as a reliever (although the Phils said last month he will be stretched out as a starter this spring)***

Brilliant!

[LorecorE]

I know Glavine had a better career than Mussina, but they aren't terribly that different.

For 1 guy to get over 90% on his first HoF ballot and the other to get 20% is a bit confusing to me.

[NEPP]

Moose is a fairly solid HOF pick...and he'll get in in a few years I think. Glavine has the prettier numbers (300+ wins, 4-5 20 win seasons, part of a historically great rotation, etc) but that's about it.

[Harry Callous]

Gotta love these highlights:

Hernández started the 2008 season off strong before going down on May 24 with a left hip strain after running to cover first base. He stayed on the disabled list for 2 months before making his return to the starting rotation on July 26.

In front of a sellout crowd of 41,721 fans at Cleveland's ballpark Progressive Field, Hernández started the 2011 season for the Indians.[6][7] Hernández posted the worst opening day start in Major League history, as he became the first starting pitcher to allow 10 runs in a team's first game.[8] Hernández was the losing pitcher as he threw 88 pitches over 3.0 innings, allowed 11 hits, surrendered 2 home runs, walked 1, had 10 earned runs and left the game with an earned run average of 30.00.[9] When pulled from the game, he was booed by fans.[10] In that game, he became the first starting pitcher to allow 10 runs in a team's first game in over 60 years.

That and Howard stroking 50ish homers and 125 RBI. We are cooked

[Brian G]

RIP Bill Conlin ... what he did with those kids does not erase a career of great sports writing.
Posted by: steve | Sunday, January 12, 2014 at 12:06 PM

Not to beat a dead horse's ass, but...
Maybe what he did to those kids does not erase his writing career, but what he did to those kids should most definitely erase your desire to wish him to rest in peace. Great sports writer or not, he did horrible things to innocent children for which he should rot in hell. RIH Conlin.

[LorecorE]

Glavine vs Maddux

http://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=all&stats=pit&lg=all&qual=0&type=c,4,5,13,8,9,10,-1,36,37,43,42,48,38,-1,6,45,62,-1,59&season=2013&month=0&season1=1986&ind=0&team=0&rost=0&age=0&filter=&players=90,837

Glavine with the edge in postseason success as well, even though Moose had his share.

Maybe the 90%-20% comparison isn't a good way to judge how they are viewed as pitchers, since I could easily see why people would vote Glavine and not Mussina for the first year and might even myself - just first look at those % made it jump out.

[LorecorE]

sorry should be Vs Mussina

[ColonelTom]

Enough with Martin as a potential starter already! Even if he's unhittable on a given night - and usually he's very hittable the second time through the order - Martin can't get much past 5-6 innings because he consistently runs deep counts. That puts a heavy burden on the bullpen and creates a cascade effect on the next game or two, as the bullpen is often gassed, forcing the starters to pitch deeper into games than they should.

FanGraphs had a good piece recently on "The Myth of the Five-Man Rotation." RAJ would do well to take note. Besides, our #3 through 6 options (Kendrick, MAG, Fauxto, Pettibone) are fairly weak, and displacing more than one of them is hardly a tragedy.

I'd love to see MAG begin in the bullpen. The Cards have done very nicely stockpiling potential starters in the bullpen, and the Phils could learn a thing or two from them. I've said it multiple times - depth is a feature, not a bug!

[NEPP]

You'd think they would have learned their lesson with Madson...he sucked when they tried to get him to start too but was an awesome reliever.

Just let Martin be a reliever and hope he can grow into a guy that can replace Papelbon cheaply once that deal is off the books.

[LorecorE]

As much as I might despise people for bringing up Howard's past numbers as chance for future success, it doesn't even come close to how ridiculous it is for people to have the slightest shred of thought about Carmona's 2008 season having any relevance to 2014.

[MG]

At this point, Phils have to stretch out Martin and likely prepare for him to enter ST as a starter given the lack of organizational depth and the issue of rounding out the rotation at Lehigh to start the year.

[MG]

Part of me almost wishes at this point this year is a complete disaster and the Phils are forced to make some real changes instead of just trying to go status quo this year and next.

[NEPP]

It's still a bad decision, MG given that we've already seen that Martin probably can't hack it as a SP. They'd be better off taking fliers on 2-3 SP then making Martin a starter. He's young and he has the potential to be a very good to possibly elite relief option. There's more value in that than there is in 15-20 mediocre to terrible starts in 2014.

[CS]

Phils sign ronny cedano to MiLB w/ST invite. More depth and UT competition.

[Jack]

MG: Yeah, because if there's one thing the Phillies have shown over their history, it's a willingness to make bold changes to try and avoid mediocrity.

[ColonelTom]

Surely the team's new analytics guy can understand this (stats from Martin's Baseball Reference page):

Times Facing Opponent in Game, 2013:

1st PA in G: .211/.291/.300, .591 OPS
2nd PA in G: .306/.404/.551, .955 OPS
3rd PA in G: .364/.533/.955, 1.488 OPS

[awh™]

"You'd think they would have learned their lesson with Madson...he sucked when they tried to get him to start too but was an awesome reliever."

Yeah, true NEPP, but the problem with Madson as an example is that he was a starter in MiL, and did OK.

I question whether he was really given an adequate chance to start, given the Phillies needed help in the bullpen too.

Both Lee and Halladay got sent to the minors in their careers because they sucked as a starter at one time or another. Koufax had a 4.16 ERA after his first 77 starts. through his first 32 starts, Randy Johnson had a 4.48 ERA. Glavine, through his first 43 starts had a 4.76 ERA. Want a lesser guy?: Gavin Floyd sucked too through his first 29 starts - 6.30 ERA.

The list is a lot longer.

IMHO, if they really wanted to find out whether Madson could start, he needed more than 17 starts in 2006 to prove himself.

I'm not saying he would have made it as a starter, just that I don't view 17 starts as enough of a sample size/chance for anyone to really know.

[bay_area_phan]

I recently devised a sophisticated computer program, which factors in thousands of data points, in an effort to come up with the absolutely most prototypical Philies player in all of baseball. In an amazing coincidence, the name that my program spit out was Ronny Cedeno.

[NEPP]

Defensively, Cedeno sucks but he can suck at SS, 3B and 2B so there's that.

Not a bad ST invite signing actually. His bat is about what you'd expect from a crappy utility infielder of course.

Rube must have been itching to sign another versatile middle infielder.

[ColonelTom]

Maybe Cedeno can allow them to trade Galvis for something meaningful before his range starts to decline due to age. It's not like we'll have an opening at SS until 2016 anyway.

[Jack]

BAP: If the computer program is sophisticated and factors in thousands of data points, it's inherently flawed in trying to predict what the Phillies will do.

[LorecorE]

I actually thought Cedeno would have been a good sign last year so that Galvis could stay in the minors. But now that Hernandez and Galvis are up, he is just pure milb signing.

[NEPP]

Come on now guys, Cedeno is a career .289 hitter.

Oh wait, that's his OBP.

[Jack]

I think I understand what has spurred the Phillies fascination with "utility" players in recent years.

It all goes back to when Charlie managed the All-Star team, and put Omar Infante on the team because the league told him they wanted a designated "utility" player on the rosters. Excited, Charlie went back to the Phillies front office and told Rube and his cohorts that the league was introducing a new position, because why would they have an All-Star spot for a position that wasn't real? Rube, always mindful of being ahead of the curve, saw an opportunity to get an All-Star player. After all, if the All-Star team had a designated "utility" player, and the Phillies were the only team signing utility guys, then the Phillies would be getting an All-Star player! And if you've read the back of enough baseball cards, you know how valuable All-Star appearances are.

And so it began.

[awh™]

Ronny Cedeno = NOT Michael Martinez

:)

[LorecorE]

The Phillies are acting like Martin is going to be a surefire reliever no matter what, so they are going to just experiment with this starting thing for awhile since there's no downside.

Morons. All signs point to him being a reliever, so lets actually pursue that angle for now. He's far from a lock to sticking even throwing one inning at a time, let along +6. How about you develop him to at least do 1 thing right, and then maybe go from there.

[bay_area_phan]

"BAP: If the computer program is sophisticated and factors in thousands of data points, it's inherently flawed in trying to predict what the Phillies will do."

I was waiting for that comeback. The only question in my mind was whether it would come from Jack, Lorecore, GTown_Dave, or NEPP.

[ColonelTom]

Well, with Cedeno on board, at least Freddy Galvis can see what his future looks like. Cedeno's pretty much a perfect comp for Galvis.

[awh™]

Yo, new thread!

(amazing, no?)

[The Truth Injection]

AWH: Ricky Bo didn't educate Marshall Harris because it would have not fit with the program. It wasn't necessarily him being an idiot. It is actually him doing what he needs to do in a television medium.