Remnants of a slowed-down offseason

This is always the dead period of the MLB offseason -- the 3-4 weeks between the end of December and end of January. A year ago, the Joel Hanrahan-Mark Melancon trade occurred the day after Christmas, but over the next two weeks the only signing of note was Edwin Jackson to the Cubs.

The Phillies have been inactive since signing Roberto Hernandez and sending out a bunch of spring training invites on Dec. 18. There was Jim Salisbury's report about a possible reunion with Ryan Madson. There was a rumor that the Phils kicked the tires on Mark Mulder. And nothing else. 

There is little left on the free-agent market. Some quality relievers -- Jesse Crain, Scott Downs -- have signed short-term, cheap deals. They would have been worth looks, but the Phils will instead go with the young bullpen for another year. 

The Phils could still use some left-handed bench help, but it appears they're willing to pluck that help from their list of non-roster invitees. If they do choose to make another move, a few names to remember are Tyler Colvin and Chris Coghlan.

Colvin and Coghlan were once highly-regarded prospects, and both have had rocky careers.

Coghlan, a perennial Phillie-killer, was Rookie of the Year in 2009 but has since hit .242 with a .659 OPS in 1,017 major-league plate appearances.

Colvin's a little more versatile -- he can play first base and all three outfield spots, and has hit at least 18 home runs in two of four big-league seasons. In 2012 he hit .290/.327/.531 with 18 homers, 27 doubles and 10 triples as a Rockie. Then last year he went 12-for-75 with 27 strikeouts. He's a low-walk, high-strikeout guy, but could be valuable off the bench and give the Phillies insurance in case an outfielder goes down and they don't want to use John Mayberry every day. Colvin made $2.275 million last year but could likely be had for less this winter.

Colvin was outrighted to the minors in September and accepted his assignment but is no longer with Colorado. His career has bottomed out but he's just 28, and a former first-round pick. He's worthy of a low-risk flier for a team that looks like it wants to do nothing but take low-risk fliers.

Comments

[bay_area_phan]

" I have to believe you sit on this Beerleauger Elite Board, no?"

Even if I do, I can't give you that information. It's classified. At least that's what I've heard.

[awh™]

"I'll add Introspect to the categories of Prospect and Suspect."

Hmmmmm, Meyer, what then do we call a guy like mini mart?

Anyone have suggestions?

[Redburb]

A piece of sh!t?

[awh™]

"Why is it that when people talk about "toolsy" players, they invariably mean 4-tool players who don't have a hit tool?"

ramsey, slight correction. If the 5 tolls players are supposed to have are...

Running
Throwing
Fielding
Hitting for Average
Hitting for Power

...then, really, they're 3-tool players, no?

[awh™]

RedBurb, LOL!

I was thinking "Reject".

Prospect
Suspect
Introspect
Reject

[clout]

I concur with BAP's Dugan analysis.

I put Altherr on the likely to fail list because I don't think he'll hit at the MLB level.

[NEPP]

Dugan has done much better offensively since he gave up switch-hitting. That lone skews his numbers along with the injury issues early in his career.

He's not a top prospect but one of those guys that might end up helping them as a corner OF bat.

[NEPP]

I agree on Altherr...he probably wont hit at the MLB level.

[ramsey]

To be fair, "won't hit at the MLB level" is a reasonable guess with just about any prospect.

Personally, I view both Dugan and Altherr as long shots who could be solid regulars if they pan out. I just don't see Dugan as the better prospect. I give Dugan the lead in hitting and power, while Altherr has speed and defensive value, and probably the higher ceiling.

[Jack]

I suspect that most fans care far less about the Hall of Fame than most writers think they do.

That said, this article by Buster Olney explaining his votes and his views is really, really good, and I agree with almost everything in it:

http://insider.espn.go.com/blog/buster-olney/post/_/id/4360/why-i-vote-for-ped-users-for-the-hof

[NEPP]

He voted for Morris out of pity as its his final year?...what an idiot.

Morris would be one of the worst players in the HOF if he were to be elected.

[NEPP]

The fact that Altherr has taken 6 full seasons to get to AA (presuming he starts there in 2014) should give you pause when considering his future potential. That's a glacial speed for a prospect.

Also, Dugan is supposedly a decent defender who can stick in RF. Granted, its not CF like Altherr but he's hardly a Pat Burrell/Dom Brown type defensive OF.

[Jack]

NEPP: That's basically the only thing in the piece I don't agree with, but even that is just a matter of opinion, not of principles. He likes Morris as a HOFer, I don't.

I find his arguments against the "Rule of 10" and his rationale for voting for PED users to be particularly well-founded and completely sensible.

[NEPP]

I disagree on McGwire being a HOF...without juicing, he's just another also-ran. And that's if you buy into the BS that he only started juicing in STL. Canseco, who has been proven right about pretty much everything else related to steroids, swears McGwire started long before that in the 1980s.

He's not a HOF nor should he be.

[Dragon]

Man is it cold today. It's so cold I saw Gov. Chris Christie wearing his North Face lobster bib. - David Letterman

[bay_area_phan]

I think he's saying that he picked Morris over Mussina and Schilling because he had to limit his ballot to 10 and, while he thinks all 3 deserve to get in, Morris is the only 1 who will not have another chance to do so.

[jr]

Altherr's .200 BA in the AFL should give you a clue.

[Redburb]

Using BA and AFL stats? We're better than that right?

[ramsey]

Didn't Altherr get hurt in the AFL and go home early?

That .200 BA is over like 50 PAs I think.

[ramsey]

Article on Altherr for anyone interested:

http://crashburnalley.com/2014/01/02/the-future-is-unwritten-aaron-altherr/

[Dickie Thong]

Morris definitely belongs in the mustache hall of fame.

[T mac]

The Phillies organization needs to take a step back and realize that with the current contracts they have on the books for the next three years, they actually would have the most chance to win this year. Which is a pretty dire situation, as no one really believes they could be much more than a .500 team this year.
Recognizing this reality, they need to make unloading old, pricey, and unneeded vets their priority between now and trade deadline. That should start with, in order of most tradeable and replaceable, Ruiz, Rollins, Paplebon. They must unload Howard, and should package him with Lee to get a decent return. Then they can think about competing from 2015 on.

[T mac]

I should clarify my previous post. In terms of most tradeable players, in descending order, I would say Ruiz, Lee, Rollins, Paplebon, Howard. Most easily replaceable, in descending order: Howard, Rollins, Paplebon, Ruiz, and Lee.

[TheMick]

T mac: How do you see Ruiz as easily tradeable with the contract he just signed? I don't believe any GM but Amaro was willing to go three guaranteed years on a declining 35 year old catcher who's been on the DL 5 straight years.

[Mick O]

How have we not signed Abreu yet?

[Cyclic]

"Abreu has played in 50 games in the Venezuelan Winter League, hoping to catch the eye of a Major League club, and his stats are certainly impressive. The two-time All-Star has batted .322/.416/.461 with three homers, 10 doubles and three triple in Venezuela." -MLBTR

Exactly, Mick. There's your LH bench bat.

[NEPP]

And defensively, he wouldn't be a problem as he is a former gold glover after all.

With the Indians interested in him, they should probably offer him a 2 year deal to make sure he signs.

[Cyclic]

If Abreu plays in MLB in 2014, I guarantee his OBP will be higher than anyone on the Phillies.

[Cyclic]

MLBTR did a live chat Q & A. Scanning the transcript, saw this nugget.

"What do you think of Cody Asche?

Steve Adams: 15-20 homer pop with middling average and OBP numbers. He can be a respectable everyday third baseman but I don't see an All-Star type breakout or anything this year."

[NEPP]

If he does that, he'll be the best 3B we've had since Rolen.

[Meyer]

Bring Bobby Back. I'm buying into this Dream Team theme. If it works out this season then Rube can extend Howard to include his late 30's years.

[Cyclic]

Who has the better 2014...

Ibanez or Abreu?

[NEPP]

Ibanez.

[TheMick]

The PED issue for HOF balloting is a tough one. As Olney points out Gaylord Perry bragged and wrote a book about how he cheated, and he's in the hall. Whitey Ford's admitted to scuffing the ball with his wedding ring. The list goes on and on.

Tom House was an obscure relief pitcher for the Braves in the early 70's who said many players were juicing and doing HGH back then.

http://usatoday30.usatoday.com/sports/baseball/2005-05-03-steroids-house_x.htm

House never anyone singled out anyone by name, but the stats sure seem to indicate ole Hammerin Hank was juiced up. In his age 35-39 seasons (1969-73) Aaron hit more HR's than any other 5 consecutive year period of his career - 203 in 2,399 AB's. That's a HR for every 11.81 AB's over a 5-year period when every power hitter in history not on the juice is declining. In his age 28-32 seasons, supposedly most players prime years, Aaron hit 189 HR's in 2,966 AB's, or one every 15.69 AB's. In Aaron's age 39 season he had one HR per 9.8 AB's. What's wrong with this picture?

Below are the home run totals of some other great HR hitters in their age 35-39 seasons.

Mike Schmidt - 123
Reggie Jackson - 120
Harmon Killebrew - 86
Willie Mays - 123
Jim Thome - 159
Ken Griffey Jr. - 129
Frank Robinson - 108

Aaron's 209 HR's blows them all away. Aaron had three 40+ HR seasons in those five years. The seven players listed above had ONE 40 home run season in their combined 35 years of play in their age 35-39 seasons. That was Thome, in his age 35 season.

I may lie and you may lie, but the numbers never do. Is there any other reasonable explanation that would account for Aaron's incredible power surge near the end of his career?

[Meyer]

Hank started juicing in the fall of 1956.

[awh™]

T bag, here's the problem with your prescription:

Rollins has 10-5 rights and isn't going anywhere. He has stated as much. He has said he will not agree to be traded. That stated, I disagree with your analysis as to who the most easily replaceable are.

Papelbon, given his dip in velocity and effectiveness last season, is probably the most replaceable on that list. There are/were a lot of closers available on the market this offseason who are just as good as he is - if he doesn't rebound and 2013 is the Papelbon we can expect.

Howard is next on the list only because 1B is usually a spot on the field where there isn't a lot of positional scarcity from a defensive standpoint. Also, it remains to be seen whether he can come back from his leg injuries. If he does, he's less replaceable. If he doesn't, he's a dime a dozen platoon player (*hyperbole alert*).

Rollins, Ruiz and Lee, in that order, is probably correct, though Rollins, despite his down year at the plate, was still in the top half of MLB SS in 2013.

See here:

http://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=ss&stats=bat&lg=all&qual=450&type=8&season=2013&month=0&season1=2013&ind=0&team=0&rost=0&age=0&filter=&players=0

That's not so easily replaceable. Yes, there is the availability of Stephen Drew, who comes with his own baggage and issues, but he's reportedly looking for a long term big bucks contract.

Ruiz is one of the better catchers in MLB, IMHO a spot of extreme positional scarcity. The money that catchers are starting to get paid (Ruiz included) is starting to reflect that.

Lastly, Lee would definitely be the hardest to replace.

AAMOF, at this time Lee is irreplaceable, and Ruiz, if he rebounds, might fall into that category as well.

[NEPP]

Offense exploded when the mound was lowered from 15 to 10 inches in 1969...might that have something to do with Aaron's offensive surge at the end of his career (1969-1975). His OPS jumped 151 points from 1968 to 1969 as a result.

[NEPP]

Its called the 2nd deadball era...look it up if you're curious. When you do, you'll realize just how ridiculous Aaron's numbers were in context.

[awh™]

TheMick, where was Aaron playing during the seasons you reference?

If his age 25-29 seasons were in Milwaukee, what was the ballpark like for power hitters?

In Atlanta, where he player from 1966 onward, Fulton County Stadium, IIRC, was a pretty good HR ballpark.

Those factors could have something to do with it.

[NEPP]

They played in County stadium in Milwaukee...it was a pretty pitcher friendly park at that point.

http://www.baseball-reference.com/teams/ATL/attend.shtml

Enjoy.

[NEPP]

Hank Aaron:

Age 20-29: .947 OPS
Age 30-39: .941 OPS

Just a massive offensive explosion in his 30s...MASSIVE.

[TheMick]

Nepp: I know about the mound being lowered after 68, but why would that affect Aaron's numbers so drastically and not everyone else who batted against pitchers from the lowered mound...i.e Killebrew, who played in the almost the identical years Aaron played? Same thing applies to the 2nd dead ball era. There were great power hitters then too, not just Aaron. Willie McCovey was in his early 30's when Aaron was in his age 35-39 seasons.

Awh: Aaron's 25-29 seasons were in Milwaukee, as were 4 of his 5 prime years from age 28-32. From age 32 on his Atlanta days were all spent in Fulton County Stadium.

There a lot of "explanations" like the lowered mound that I've heard before, but Aaron didn't play in a vacuum. There were great players before him and great players since, but none that had the power surge he experienced that late in their careers.

Players have done whatever they could to get an edge since they've been playing the game. The steroid era gained notoriety in the late 90's, but lots of athletes were juicing long before that.

[awh™]

TheMick, look at NEPP's link:

The park factor jumped by about 10, from mid-90's to mid 00's.

[awh™]

Add that to the lowering of the mound and you have a recipe for someone being able to maintain his performance a lot longer.

[awh™]

Also, I saw you reference Mays. Mays played at Candlestick Park, one of the worst HR hitting ballparks at the time.

I personally saw one game (I'm sure I'm older than you), where Mays hit three long fly balls that all died on the warning track in LF in the face of a 20mph wind. they would have been HR most everywhere else. That happened there a lot.

[awh™]

Hank Aaron was the best RHH ever.

Take the HR away and he'd STILL have 3000 hits.

[awh™]

"If he does that, he'll be the best 3B we've had since Rolen."

Since Rolen, the bar isn't set very high on that (coughs Helms coughs Dobbs coughs Nunez cough coughs Pete Happy)

[The Truth Injection]

That feels very bullish on Asche's prospects.

[Will Schweitzer]

Anyone who even attempts to play devil's advocate in a discussion that links Hank Aaron to steroids has forfeited any credibility they could ever claim to have in a discussion about performance enhancing drugs.

[TheMick]

NEPP: Aaron's age 35-39 OPS was.997. Those are the years I specified as being abnormally high, especially for his age.

[HammRadio]

Babe Ruth age 35-40 OPS 1.116

[limoguy]

37 days to pitchers and catchers.

[clout]

Fulton County Stadium in the 1970s was known as The Launching Pad. It was a hitter's park.

[clout]

In 1973, Davey Johnson, in his first year with the Braves, hit 43 HRs at age 30. His previous high (in Baltimore, a pitcher's park) was 18.

[clout]

That same year, Darrell Evans hit 41 HRs for the Braves. His previous high was 19.

[CS]

Couple of ideas

Phillies trade:bastardo, s.gonzalez, c.asche
Yankees trade: B Gardner and Z Almonte

Phillies Sign the below with MiLB deals w/invite to ST
Grady Sizemore LHH CF
Andres Torres SH CF
Ryan Madson RH SU
Pat Neshik RP
Tommy Hanson SP
Kevin Gregg RP

[clout]

CS: Who is S. Gonzalez?

[The Truth Injection]

Trading Bastardo and Asche are bad ideas.

Signing any of those guys- let alone all 6 of them to minor league deals is worthwhile.

[awh™]

TTI, yeah, a MiL deal for anyone is no risk.

As far as trading Bastardo and Asche is concerned, who plays 3B, and why would you trade one of your only two experienced RP?

Besides, the Yankees have made it pretty clear they want a decent SP for Gardner, and are actually leaning towards keeping him anyway.

[ramsey]

clout:

Severino Gonzalez, I presume.

[CS]

Just thinking out loud...

[awh™]

I don't know about trading Severino Gonzalez either.

He's got a Cliff Lee like K/BB ratio, albeit in the minors.

If he has a good ST he'll probably start the season there, and it will be really interesting to see if he can sustain his 2013 success.

[bullit]

i think minimart belongs in the "sus-pect" category.

[Redburb]

I forgot about Severino Gonzalez. Probably back of the rotation starter, but that has proven to be a valuable trade piece in recent years.

[THeDude]

I'd prefer to go outside and pick my @$$ of all its dingleberries in the freezing cold then tie up significant money in any of this year's crop of free agents. We have learned that top talent gets locked up early so that by the tine they reach FA status they are past their primes.

Ruin it Tomorrow needs to blow it up and rebuild with solid drafting and low risk signings which do not boggle you down in the future.

[Jack]

Julio Rodriguez had sick K/BB numbers at low levels, too.

Guys who dominate low levels without good stuff usually don't end up making it very far.

[NEPP]

Yohan Flande was my favorite "flavor of the week no stuff/good results" minor leaguer that people starting raving about here and on PhuturePhillies.

[NEPP]

RJ Swindle was another fun one.

[ramsey]

Sev Gon is interesting because supposedly his stuff took a big leap forward, and his peripherals suggest dominance. Hard to fake big strikeout numbers.

I really don't know what to make of him, but that makes him like most prospects.

[NEPP]

Swindle had a SO/9 ratio above 11 in our system for 2 straight years.

[Bedrosian's Beard]

Wasn't the SGon=JRod thing debunked already*? Come on, guys.

*Dumb Beerleaguer disclaimer: No, this isn't to say I think Severino Gonzalez is going to be the next Pedro Martinez, or top prospect in baseball.

[bay_area_phan]

One key difference between Severino & our many flavor-of-the-week minor leaguers with gaudy numbers is that Gonzalez's walk rate is extremely low. If you've got pinpoint command, you can get away with lesser stuff. Of course, his walk rate did rise significantly at Clearwater. It was still really good but not quite what I'd call exceptional. So that's something that bears watching at AA this year.

[Jake]

http://www.rotoworld.com/content/playerpages/playerbreakingnews.asp?sport=MLB&id=7573&line=417410&spln=1

Todd Zolecki of MLB.com reports that the the Phillies have contacted Casey Close, the agent for Japanese right-hander Masahiro Tanaka.
While the Phillies should have the money to compete with the big-budget clubs in the mix, Zolecki suspects that they are likely doing their due diligence by checking in and are more likely to take on some lower-cost fliers. The Mariners, Cubs, Yankees, and Angels are among the other clubs with known interest in Tanaka, though the list is surely much longer. Jan. 8 - 9:45 am et

For the love of God, just do it. Give us some hope for 2014.

[ramsey]

I'd say the biggest difference is a 94 mph fastball, if the reports are true.

[awh™]

Phils have a good relationship with Casey Close.

He's Howard's agent... :)

[MG]

Do it! Do it now!

Rotation of Lee/Hamels/Tanaka gives you a certifiable strength the next 2 years, generates some badly needed positive buzz and ticket sales when Tanaka pitches this year, and gives this team a chance to finish above .500 and be competitive.

[MG]

"The Braves aren't finished making moves yet, team president John Schuerholz tells Jim Bowden of SiriusXM (via Twitter). "I like our team but [General Manager Frank Wren] is not done yet," Schuerholz said."

There only move this offseason of any substance was Floyd at 1 yr/$4M. Been even slower than the Phils.

[bay_area_phan]

That it's January 8 and RAJ hasn't done anything to meaningfully upgrade the Phillies' lineup is unfortunate, but was inevitable given the mismatch between the Phillies' needs & what is available in free agency.

That it's January 8 and RAJ hasn't done anything to meaningfully upgrade the Phillies' starting rotation is disappointing but unsurprising.

That it's January 8 and RAJ hasn't done anything to meaningfully upgrade the league's worst bullpen is utterly shocking and is reason, in and of itself, to can RAJ on the spot.

[Redburb]

Wheeler and Sarge have been canned.

[CS]

matt gelb ends Phillies chat as news breaks that Chris Wheeler and Sarge Matthews are not returning to Phillies booth in 14

[AL]

Only saw in on CrossingBroad (unreliable but this is their expertise) and some random Twitter accounts. Interested to hear details. Thought Wheels was a lifer.

[MG]

Wonder if they will let TMac fly solo this year or not in the booth, move LA back to TV (where he isn't as good of a fit), or bring back someone else.

For as much grief as Sarge/Wheeler got, they didn't affect the TV ratings one way or another.

[MG]

ESPN reported it too. Doubt there will be a post on here one way or another.

[NEPP]

How is this not worthy of a new thread!!!

I wonder if that was a requirement by Comcast for the tv deal.

Sure, we'll give you $2.5 billion but you need to whack Wheeler and Sarge

[CS]

Franske and McCarthy would sound great. Corey to the radio ha.

[NEPP]

Please tell me this means Franske is bumped up to tv...just do it as a simulcast with him on tv and radio. It'd be awesome

[Redburb]

I'm sure Wheeler and Sarge were canned because of TV ratings.

/eye roll

[NEPP]

Who will explain the no doubles defense to me now???

[Kevin]

Gotta admit that I'm surprised about Wheels. While Franske is great & deserves the TV opportunity, I really enjoy the back-and-forth he $ LA have, so I'd hate to lose that.

According to the AP story, the decision was driven by the network, not the team. It says that both Wheels & Sarge will take jobs with the team.

Link: http://www.pulse.me/ap/cc1da3425c724e91a45bc1bc901a3bd7

[NEPP]

Clearly someone at Comcast doesnt like them...that person must actually watch the broadcasts then.

A shame that T Mac wasn't canned also.

[Redburb]

T-Mac isn't bad on radio. He's just not good on TV because he doesn't shut up.

[GTown_Dave]

While the move appears to be a minor fan win on the surface, I'm skeptical. If Franzke & L.A. are split up I'll have even less reason to follow this mess of a ball club. At any rate, TMac is worse than Wheeler & Sarge combined. I'll hold my applause.

[GBrettfan]

I'd rather have lost TMac than Wheels, but I'm not sad to see a change. In fact, it's the most exciting news of the offseason so far. I routinely listened on radio while having the TV muted.

Happy New Year, everyone!

OT: The Assets is a very interesting miniseries, in my opinion, about catching Aldrich Ames. Its first ep had very low ratings, so I'm plugging it here because I know there are others interested in history (and probably in spy stories, too). It's on Thursdays 10PM ABC. If you're interested. If you aren't, I hope you don't mind my saying something here.

[NEPP]

Worst case scenario is that they'll just move Greg Murphy into the booth as the color guy and hire some other idiot to do the "in the stands" crap.

[Redburb]

My bet is Ricky Bo goes into the booth.

[pblunts]

It's pathetic that this will likely be the best move of the off-season.

[GBrettfan]

Funny tweet:

Zoo With Roy ‏@zoowithroy 5m
Meanwhile, Tom McCarthy sits in a lonely studio apartment, working on his fake excited voice.

[Nonamephame (Founder of the Cody Asche fan club, no scout-lovers allowed)]

Worst case scenario is that they'll just move Greg Murphy into the booth as the color guy and hire some other idiot to do the "in the stands" crap.

Posted by: NEPP | Wednesday, January 08, 2014 at 01:07 PM

That would be a phillies move (see moving D Brown to left and signing D Young to replace him, thus making both positions worse). Comcast is probably pulling the strings here.

[GTown_Dave]

"Comcast: We'll do for the Phillies what we've done for Beerleaguer!"

#EpicFacepalm

[NEPP]

I wonder if they brought Wheels and TMac into a room and forced Rube to choose which was gonna be whacked.