Should Phillies take a late stab at A.J. Burnett?

The Phillies have reportedly expressed interest in free-agent right-hander A.J. Burnett, according to the Pittsburgh Tribune-Review. It was previously believed that Burnett would consider only the Pirates or retirement.

I've been pining for Burnett since last summer. He's 37, but would fit the Phillies well on a one- or two-year deal. 

Burnett's been really, really good since returning to the NL after six years in the AL East. In 2012 and 2013 with the Pirates, he went 26-21 with a 3.41 ERA in 61 starts, striking out 8.9 batters per nine and walking 3.0.

His WHIP was 1.23 and his opponents had a .306 on-base percentage. Burnett had a ground-ball rate of 56.7%, which was second-best in the majors to Trevor Cahill.

Burnett's ability to strike batters out and keep the ball on the ground make him extremely effective in high-pressure situations. 

Yeah, he's 37, but the Phillies have so little rotation depth that he would unquestionably improve the team, maybe by as much as three wins. 

Burnett's new-found willingness to play for teams other than the Pirates in 2014 is intriguing. He lives in suburban Baltimore and wants to stay close to home, which is why the pitching-needy Orioles and Phillies have reportedly been in pursuit. Burnett is a neighbor and friend of Phillies assistant GM Scott Proefrock, for what it's worth.

There's a lot of uncertainty regarding Miguel Alfredo Gonzalez. If the Phillies were to give Burnett a one-year deal worth, say, $12 million, they could ease Gonzalez into the majors as a setup man, thereby strengthening their bullpen and preparing him for the rotation in 2015, when Kyle Kendrick may be gone.

Something to keep an eye on as spring training nears. There are still some pretty enticing names on the starting pitching market.

Comments

[Meyer]

Yes.

[Coach Kent Murphy]

Yeah y the hell not.

[NEPP]

Yes they should...and reposted from the last thread as I just spent 20 min on it and I'm not about to waste that time:

Recent Drafts:

2009 - Top pick was Dugan at #75...we had no pick thanks to signing Ibanez. Darin Ruf and Josh Zeid are two guys with MLB action from that draft. We drafted AJ Griffin too but he didn't sign...that would have been nice, eh? You could probably count Singleton as a hit there too but we traded him for Pence of course. We drafted Andrew Susac too and he's a pretty good C prospect...we simply couldnt sign him. We ended up getting Brodie Colvin to take that money instead...oops. Jake Stewart was the other "hard-sign" pick we made that year with Susac and Colvin and he's terrible now...so we had a 1 in 3 chance of hitting there on those hard sign guys and we missed. Dugan still has an outside shot at making it though.

2010 - Jesse Biddle was the top pick at #27 and he's been pretty solid as a prospect so far. He might have been a bit of a reach at #27 but they knew he would be off the board by their next pick at #77 so they grabbed him. Cameron Rupp is the only guy who has made it to the majors so far and his ultimate upside is "defense first backup catcher"...no so impressive. None of the other picks are even prospects anymore and they have all really crashed/burned to include Percy Garner , Gauntlet Eldemare, and Bryan Morgado. We did pop on Scott Frazier but he didnt sign and was drafted by the Cubs last year in the 6th round (we drafted him in the 5th in 2010). He's had an okay debut for them but he's hardly a top prospect.

2011 - Larry Greene was the top pick and he's been brutally bad, not just bad. Roman Quinn was the next pick and he blew his achilles so his entire career is in jeopardy. Harold Martinez was the 3rd pick and he floppped. Adam Morgan was a good pick till the shoulder issue/surgery. Cody Asche could be seen as a good pick (I imagine we'll have a better read on that after this season) and Mitch Walding was another miss (an interesting strategy that year was to go hard on infielders with Martinez, Walding and Asche all picked early on and only Asche has made it out so far...and he was the afterthought pick at the time. Austin Wright was a good pick but injuries took him out and Ken Giles might end up as a good reliever if he can supplement his 100 mph fastball with a good secondary pitch. The rest of that draft was pretty unremarkable.

2012 - Shane Watson was the top pick at #40 and he had surgery on his shoulder so he's off the list for now and likely forever. Mitch Gueller was a lottery type pick and he has been terrible in his two minor league seasons...likely not a prospect. Dylan Cozens looks like a decent pick and he's shown real power so far...Lakewood this year will be a real test for him though. Zach Green looks like a decent pick so far too though he's sucked defensively at both SS and 3B so far despite being rated pretty good with the glove in the draft. Andrew Pullin is a bit interesting but he really struggled in his sophomore effort in Williamsport. This will be an interesting year for him too.

So yeah, 09 wasnt a terrible draft but not signing Susac or Griffin and trading Singleton basically zeroed out any real value from it. 10 was a mediocre year even if Biddle does become a #3 SP as hoped. 11 was also a flop even if Asche becomes an okay 3B and Giles somehow makes it as a reliever as neither have real upside...losing Quinn and Morgan like that to major injuries really hurts that year. 2012 looks bad now that Watson's career is in doubt. Cozens is the only guy with a real shot and he's not really that highly rated due to contact concerns.

[GBrettfan]

It's not like we're flush with aces anymore, so sure.

Did anyone comment that the Bleacher Report gave the Phillies an F for their offseason? Was it there, or somewhere else, that I read they're "poised to make a run at .500". That made me laugh. One of those black humor laughs of which I expect there will be plenty again this season.

[NEPP]

Having an esteemed organization like Bleacher Report say that really hurts.

[Hugh Mulcahy]

Yes. And when he does poorly I will p!A's and moan about that game he pulled out of his arose in 2009.

[NEPP]

In that 09 WS game, the moment he dropped that curve through the zone for a strike in the 1st, I knew we were screwed. If he can make that pitch, he's nearly unhittable.

[Pblunts]

Repost from last thread:

"Does anyone know if the workouts at Bright House Field before Spring Training games start are open to the public? Just found out a business trip will take me close (enough) to Clearwater the day before full squads report, so I may take a trip over if practices/workouts are open to the public. Thanks."

[NEPP]

No idea, Pblunts. I somewhat suspect they are not but I've never heard one way or the other.

[Phils Fan in MD]

Yes ma'am. Grab him before the pitching-starved Orioles do (he lives about a 45 minute drive from Camden Yards)

[Hugh Mulcahy]

Agreed NEPP. He established that curve early and brutally slashed our lineup with it. I worry he's blown his load but if 2014 is a hail Mary season, fvcking sign that ugly bastard.

[NEPP]

He literally pitched the game of his life that night.

[Will Schweitzer]

AJ would be a decent signing. I'd even support a patented Amaro two year veteran special. They could do a hell of a lot worse than Cole, Cliff and AJ at the top of the rotation for two years.

I'm not convinced that MAG is a mid rotation starter, long reliever, setup man, closer or useless waste of money who never throws a single inning. We'll know more after spring (and even then, we won't know much), but I'm not willing to say that he can't make a go of it in the rotation. Hell, if he really can throw a decent knuckleball, who knows? It's an interesting lottery ticket.

Still, how bad would he have to be to lose a spot to Fausto, Pettibone or Martin?

[The Truth Injection]

not sure.

I figure I have about 5 days until the next header so I have plenty of time to make up my mind.

[Dickie Thong]

I realize this is from the Bleacher Report, but their 2014 draft prediction for the Phils sounds pretty spot on.

7. Philadelphia Phillies Select Gainesville HS OF Michael Getty

Even though Ruben Amaro's plans at the MLB level leave a lot to be desired, at least he's consistent when it comes to the draft. He—along with the scouting and player development department in Philadelphia—loves athletes and will always bet on upside.

Michael Gettys certainly fits that mold. He's got arguably the best bat speed in the class, plus raw power, running speed and plus-plus arm strength. You put that player in center field, and he could turn into an All-Star.

Of course, like Jacob Gatewood, Gettys hasn't shown the hit tool against velocity in games. It's a raw profile and one that will take time to develop, but if he gets it, we could be talking about one of the best players in this class.

He's also got some upside as a pitcher, having touched the mid-90s with his fastball, but this kind of athlete should be patrolling the middle of the field.

http://bleacherreport.com/articles/1907603-2014-mlb-mock-draft-fresh-first-round-projections-to-start-the-new-year/page/8

[NEPP]

No way they're that stupid to take another raw toolshed who has everything but the actual hit tool.

I mean come one...not at #7.

[lorecorn]

I'd rather overpay ($15m) this year than get a 2yr ~$25m deal.

[NEPP]

I dont really feel that 1/$15 million would be an overpay for AJ Burnett...

[PLM]

Perhaps on a one year with a option for a 2nd. However Rube will hand over a 2 year deal with a option for a 3rd. No mas $14 Mill.

[Bubba]

I was reading over the last thread and ,in particular, the discussion of the utility infielders potential to adequately play defense at 3B.

Amazing was the lack of respect given the rich historical heritage of our beloved blog.

No one, in all those posts, played the "tall enough to play 3B" trump card.

[Toolsy McShitbag]

Hey, Rube, pick me, pick me!

[jbird]

I'll never forgive AJ Burnett for that 2009 WS game or the phillies hitters sticking with their "don't swing at the 1st (or 2nd or 3rd) pitch" strategy to the bitter, bitter end. It was fairly obvious early that Burnett had miraculously found his control. I'm getting depressed just thinking about it.

[DufDaddy]

Phils are gonna lose 90 games this year, Cy Young himself won't stop that. There is no point paying anyone to pretend that they are trying to win. Let Pettibone, Martin, Gonzalez and Kendrick fight for the jobs.

This season is over before it starts, might as well see what we've got on our own shelves first.

[LorecorE]

dufdaddy: so you'd rather the owners pocket money and lose 90 games then the team spend as much as possible and lose 90 games?

As long as they don't use future resources, theres no reason not to want them to acquire players this season. I'd rather see them sign a bun on a 1yr $50M deal than the owners bank an extra penny in their wallet.

[bay_area_phan]

"Even though Ruben Amaro's plans at the MLB level leave a lot to be desired, at least he's consistent when it comes to the draft. He—along with the scouting and player development department in Philadelphia—loves athletes and will always bet on upside."

The irony is that he's exactly the opposite when it comes to free agents. He'd rather sign 10 Ronny Cedenos than one unproven 25-year old with upside.

[Biggs]

The Phils should pursue Burnett, but with what we've seen this offseason it's very hard to see them signing him.

Good analysis of the Amaro regime drafts NEPP. I had a response regarding the Phils top 10 prospects as rated by Baseball America when my browser crashed and I lost what I wrote. I won't re-write it, but the crux was once you got past Franco, Biddle and Crawford there were more question marks than players with good looking futures.

Here's a decent site where you can look at team's top 10 prospects with scouting reports and ETA's.

http://www.rotochamp.com/baseball/TopProspects.aspx

[Biggs]

Here's the team by team prospect analysis

http://prospect361.com/nl-team-prospects/philadelphia-phillies/

[Meyer]

Filling out the rotation with another name seems like a champion idea. What a great time to open up the wallet for a starting pitcher.

[squads]

Seems like a great move for a decent quality pitcher for a short contract. I get the feeling the Phillies are really pinching pennies at this point though.

[Cyclic]

He's got a better chance of making the playoffs with the Phillies than the Orioles. I say this would be a good move.

[LorecorE]

I have a feeling that Burnett will go to 'not pitching in 2014' to 'only pitching in Pitt' to 'pitching other places but still in the mid atlantic' to 'pitching only for a contender' to the eventual...'hey im just a normal free agent who will play for the highest bigger'

if his price tags inches up everytime he designates himself with a new label, he's a genius.

[bay_area_phan]

"He's got a better chance of making the playoffs with the Phillies than the Orioles."

The Orioles went 85-77 last year. The year before that, they won 93 games & a WC spot. They play in a tough division, but their playoff chances are surely better than the Phillies.

[Jackamac]

Burnett is a lot better than Hamels. He has 147 wins. You know how many wins Hamels has? 99. #RAJLogic

[bay_area_phan]

I don't find myself sharing the Beerleaguer love for A.J. Burnett. He's had a couple of nice (though hardly great) years, which followed on the heels of 2 very bad ones. At 37, and with his commitment to pitching in question, I'm not terribly confident that 2014 is going to be like the last 2 seasons, as opposed to the 2 years before that. Plus he's a jerk.

If the Phillies had a reasonable chance of contending next year, I'd be all for giving a 1 or 2-year deal to Burnett. But even if we get the good A.J. Burnett, he's not going to put them over the top, and he's going to take a rotation spot away from someone like MAG or Pettibone who could use the experience. I'll pass. And I assume RAJ will pass too. Burnett's definitely in the right age range for RAJ, but his price tag will be too high for the Phillies' penurious owners.

[Jack]

Here's Law's writeup on JP Crawford, his highest rated Phils prospect and #46 overall:

"Crawford could have gone as high as 10th in the 2013 draft, as he was one of the Blue Jays' final choices for their pick in that spot, and was in every team's mix on down to the Phillies at 16, who were on him all spring as one of the draft's only true shortstops.

"The Phils aren't afraid of slow-development guys, which Crawford appeared to be as a physically immature player who had present speed and some feel to hit. For these reasons his performance in the Gulf Coast League was surprising -- he finished second in the league in OBP and walked as often as he struck out, all while playing above-average defense at shortstop. He even held his own in a brief trial in low-A, an aggressive assignment for an 18-year-old just out of high school.

"Crawford needs some help with his first step and actions around the bag at second base, and he's going to have to get stronger so he can continue to hit as he faces better fastballs, but the Phillies may have just nabbed an impact player in the middle of the diamond."

[Redburb]

No surprise KLaw ranked Crawford the Phils top prospect.

[PLM]

It seem like the Phillies have been penny pinching but as some eluded before perhaps they where saving it for one move.

[aksmith]

PLM - A lot of people felt the same way last season. "The offseason isn't over. Let's see how they spend that money now!" And this classic, "The Phillies are going to blast through the luxury tax threshold this year. They're going to be getting a new TV contract and that will blow other teams' contracts out of the water!!!"

Ah, those were the heady days.

[NEPP]

***For these reasons his performance in the Gulf Coast League was surprising -- he finished second in the league in OBP ***

I'm gonna go with "small sample size and a definite regression in 2014" for $2000, Alex.

[NEPP]

It seem like the Phillies have been penny pinching but as some eluded before perhaps they where saving it for one move.

Posted by: PLM | Wednesday, January 29, 2014 at 11:18 AM

They're saving it to make a big run at Tanaka who should be posted any day now.

[Bubba]

Moyer comes back on an 80% announcer/20% starting pitcher contract. In the booth on days he doesn't start.
Ushering in a new era of collaboration between teams and cable operators-- taking the CBP experience right into your family room.
The evolution of baseball into entertainment is now complete. Monty has gone one up Bill Veck as baseball showman.

[Chase Trillo]

I understand the arguments for and against this move, but the Phils definitely need some SP depth! 1 year at 12-14 mil with a team/player option for 2015 sounds about right. He would slot in great between Hamels and Lee. Besides, he's a nice trading chip should everything fall apart by the deadline.

[Meyer]

The big jerk should sign with the Phillies with an opt-out clause to Baltimore at the deadline.

[Cyclic]

"The Orioles went 85-77 last year. The year before that, they won 93 games & a WC spot. They play in a tough division, but their playoff chances are surely better than the Phillies."

I'm not saying the Phillies have a good shot. Just think that because of their division, the odds are more stacked against Baltimore.

[Meyer]

Burnett probably would like to stay in NL. Washington will probably pad their staff. Then, at the end of August when the Phillies are only 6 games back with 2 crucial series'coming up with Nats, A.J. will get another opportunity to display that hook.

[LorecorE]

NEPP: We'll never know, since Crawford won't ever see the GCL again.

[NEPP]

Well I meant in his full-season debut this year where he'll likely start the year off in Lakewood. He might very well struggle mightily. Even if he does, he's still a good prospect but perhaps one that overachieved a bit last year in a smaller sample size.

[pblunts]

You know, signing Burnett would at least give a slight glimmer of hope that we could contend for the second WC spot while simultaneously making me feel better about the off-season. It's not impossible with those top three at the top this team could hang around .500 until around the All-Star Break *IF* a lot of other things break right, namely the health of the old guys and we return to having at least a competent bullpen. And as we know, Burnett doesn't cost a pick- nothing but dollars and the obligatory extra and vesting option year special from Rube.

Otherwise? The new over/under of "season over" isn't Memorial Day, it's the Eagles draft, which is now about 30 days after Opening Day after the NFL moved it to the first week in May.

[Cyclic]

bap, to your 1046, I offer Lore's 1204.

"So you'd rather the owners pocket money and lose 90 games then the team spend as much as possible and lose 90 games?

As long as they don't use future resources, there's no reason not to want them to acquire players this season. I'd rather see them sign a bun on a 1yr $[15]M deal than the owners bank an extra penny in their wallet."

[Cyclic]

Now that I notice he was referring to a bun (he meant bum) and not Burnett, I shouldn't have changed his "50" to "15"

[LorecorE]

I advocate a $50M bun. Imagine the room for condiments.

[D Pat]

AJ might help this team, might not. They have nothing to to lose except money. And that's the problem. I don't see them paying what he'd want.

[Dragon]

If Amaro and the ownership break down and sign A. J. Burnett it might give a little credence to their line that they believe the team has a chance to snag a wild card should everyone stay healthy. Not signing a starter like Burnett will just reinforce the notion that they are just blowing smoke.

[NEPP]

I'd much rather they pocket that money and buy a yacht with it than invest it in the onfield product. I mean, these are struggling small-market owners here with very limited cash. Its not like they just signed a massive tv deal officially valued at over $2 billion and unofficially estimated to be worth maybe 2.5 times that by some sources.

[bay_area_phan]

"As long as they don't use future resources, there's no reason not to want them to acquire players this season."

I agree in concept. But is there anything in RAJ's history which makes you believe that he's capable of giving out a one-year contract to a marquee player? And even a 2-year contract would constitute a use of future resources. That would be fine if we got the A.J. Burnett of 2012-2013, but I have significant doubts that we would.

[NEPP]

If they go into the season with this basic lineup and a rotation of Hamels, Lee, Kendrick, Pettibone/MAG and Fausto, they are very clearly not serious about competing.

[Cyclic]

I agree with NEPP, Dragon, and even bap in the last couple posts.

I guess I'd just like to see them try something that suggests they honestly believe the team can compete. (regardless of whether they can or will)

[Smaug]

Should Phillies take a late stab at A.J. Burnett?

No question about it. Two years, 30 million and a third year vesting option for winning 20 games total, or a 7.5 million dollar buyout for 2016. Twenty games is all Lee's won the past two years. I mean come on this guy has 147 wins!!! That's more than Cliff Lee and over twice as many as Kendrick in their careers. This would be the RAJ pitcher evaluation model in action, as he so eloquently pronounced when asked about pursuing Garza.

Also you needn't worry about Burnett's age. Another RAJism

“I don’t care how young they are. You can have the youngest guys on the planet, but if they don’t win baseball games, what good does that do you? My whole job is to try to win baseball games. Our fans want us to win.”

[Iceman]

"is there anything in RAJ's history which makes you believe that he's capable of giving out a one-year contract to a marquee player?"

This isn't what's being discussed, of course. What's being discussed is if a one-year deal for Burnett would be 'worth it,' and lorecore laid out why it obviously would be worth it. BAP responded to it by saying "If the Phillies had a reasonable chance of contending next year, I'd be all for giving a 1 or 2-year deal to Burnett [...] I'll pass."

I see while BL has changed, BAP changing the argument in midstream is still a constant.

[bay_area_phan]

Cyclic: "I guess I'd just like to see them try something that suggests they honestly believe the team can compete."

NEPP: "If they go into the season with this basic lineup and a rotation of Hamels, Lee, Kendrick, Pettibone/MAG and Fausto, they are very clearly not serious about competing."

Yeah, signing Burnett won't likely turn the Phillies into playoff contenders. But it would at least lift the possibility of a playoff run into the realm of plausibility. That's actually a pretty persuasive argument. I think you might have convinced me.

[aksmith]

I always wanted to write in italics, but didn't know how. Thank you.

[Yo New Thread]

Yo new thread.