With 434 plate appearances in 2014, Jimmy Rollins' 2015 option vests and the Phillies will owe him $11 million. It's an underrated storyline heading into a season full of what-ifs.
Only once in his career has Rollins amassed fewer than 434 plate appearances -- in 2010, when he played in just 88 games. Since his cup of coffee in 2000, he's averaged 681 PAs per year.
Rollins' production dipped significantly in 2013 and, while we can't be sure he's completely fallen off a cliff, it's difficult to imagine some power and speed returning for him at age 35.
Rollins hit .252/.318/.387 last season, with just six homers, a year after hitting 23. He did exhibit improved plate discipline and hit 36 doubles, so there was still some offensive value in there, especially for a position that has suffered as much offensively in recent years as shortstop.
But if the Phillies aren't contending in 2014, there is no need for Ryne Sandberg to play him every day. Committing $11 million to Rollins in 2015, no matter how key he's been to the organization for over a decade, would be another short-sighted move. Freddy Galvis has to get an extended opportunity at some point, right?
The other aspect of this is that Rollins could be more effective with reduced playing time. Let's say Sandberg gives him one night off every 8-10 games to keep his legs fresh. That would limit his PAs slightly and theoretically also give him the chance to avoid injuy and rest his legs enough to regain some power and a step on defense.
Sandberg does not at all seem like the type of manager who would yank a player from the lineup for financial or front-office decisions. But you wonder if, at some point, Phillies management will step in if and only if the team is far enough out of the race that Rollins' vesting options becomes a concern.
Well I'll be...
Posted by: Steve | Thursday, February 06, 2014 at 05:13 PM
What's this talk about 'if' his option vests?
As I've been told hundreds of times, it's a guaranteed option.
Posted by: Iceman | Thursday, February 06, 2014 at 05:27 PM
I thought the site was deceased.
Posted by: clout | Thursday, February 06, 2014 at 05:28 PM
Holy sh1t, a new post
Posted by: Tony | Thursday, February 06, 2014 at 05:32 PM
I'm sure Jimmy's agent and the MLBPA would have something to say about that
Posted by: Steve | Thursday, February 06, 2014 at 05:43 PM
..."at some point, Phillies management will step in if and only if the team is far enough out of the race that Rollins' vesting options becomes a concern."
So, they're going to do this on what day in April?
Posted by: kuvasz | Thursday, February 06, 2014 at 05:57 PM
Injury is the only chance the contract doesn't vest. If the FO sat him down for the last couple months to ensure his contract doesn't vest there'd be grievances flying all over the place, and Rollins would probably win.
Posted by: Kashmir | Thursday, February 06, 2014 at 06:02 PM
At that point, if you are thinking about benching Rollins you may as well think about trading him for salary relief. Why let him sit on the bench at all if you have no intentions of playing him much this season and not at all next year.
Posted by: Shane | Thursday, February 06, 2014 at 06:27 PM
Let's look back and again ask what was the better option to sign when Rollins was a free agent. This is the cost of the contract and let's accept it.
Posted by: CS | Thursday, February 06, 2014 at 06:40 PM
And just think, we might've wasted this money on Michael Cuddyer and had our outfield situation fixed!
Posted by: Jackamac | Thursday, February 06, 2014 at 06:58 PM
Cuddyer draws walks-per our astute GM " we don't need no stinkin walks" Pathetic
Posted by: john procopi | Thursday, February 06, 2014 at 07:04 PM
Well, at least we now know the time limit for any one thread is exactly one week!
Posted by: Conway Twitty | Thursday, February 06, 2014 at 07:15 PM
Its highly against the rules to bench a guy solely to avoid having an option vest...he would file a grievance and he would win.
It would also damage the Phillies long-term with any other contract negotiations as players would fear they would get the same treatment. I mean, if they'd be willing to do that to the best SS in team history and the face of the franchise for the past 15 years, who else would they fvck over?
The only way they can legitimately even think about doing it is if they have a better option available. Galvis couldn't just equal his offense, he'd have to significantly exceed it to avoid a grievance.
At least The Good Phight has regular threads...more interesting too.
Posted by: NEPP | Thursday, February 06, 2014 at 07:19 PM
Gotta love winter, the season of idle speculation.
Posted by: Dennis Atwell | Thursday, February 06, 2014 at 07:19 PM
Hard to believe, Harry. The last thread got 21 likes on facebook, the most since Doc's retirement 2 months ago. Who are these people?
Posted by: Conway Twitty | Thursday, February 06, 2014 at 07:30 PM
When he gets to 400 plate appearances, hire Jeff Gillooly to whack him in the knees with a crow bar.
Posted by: D | Thursday, February 06, 2014 at 07:38 PM
Whoo-hoo-hoo, look who knows so much?
Turns out that this site was only mostly dead.
Posted by: Dave | Thursday, February 06, 2014 at 07:40 PM
Beerleaguer's death was exaggerated. Threads close automatically after a week. Of course, the lack of an active thread was a symptom of the site's ongoing death by starvation. I hate to be critical and I know the offseason has been slower than usual but, this thread's no cure. Why even ask this question before the fvcking roster is set and the actually play enough of the season to 1) see how the team is doing and, 2) see how Rollins performs? No reason. The answer is no. And, oh yeah, what NEPP said. What kind of working stiff wants to live in a world where your boss can fvck you over with impunity regardless of your track record and performance? I know Rollins is a millionaire but, there's a reason we have trade unions and their slow, beerleaguer-like deaths, is nothing to celebrate.
Posted by: Hugh Mulcahy | Thursday, February 06, 2014 at 08:03 PM
The thing this article fails to mention is that Rollins made $11 million in 2012, 2013, and will make the same in 2014. The second thing is that the plate appearance number is wrong.
According to Baseball Prospectus: "2015 option guaranteed at $11M with 1) 600 plate appearances in 2014 or 2) 1,100 PAs in 2013-14 and Rollins is not on disabled list at end of 2014 season (or if he is on the DL, a mutually agreed upon doctor deems him available for 2015 Opening Day roster)."
His potential contract structure: "if option does not vest, Phillies hold $8M club option for 2015 and Rollins holds $5M player option."
Posted by: Brian Parsons | Thursday, February 06, 2014 at 08:16 PM
Rollins had 666 PA in 2013...
..1200 PA
.-666 PA
----------
.434 PA
How is the PA wrong?
Posted by: NEPP | Thursday, February 06, 2014 at 08:24 PM
NEPP: Parsons is the new analytics intern. Rube asked each candidate "How much is 1100 - 666?" Parsons gave the highest answer, 715, and got the job.
Posted by: Conway Twitty | Thursday, February 06, 2014 at 08:50 PM
Should they limit his AB? No. But I would NEVER have him leadoff again. Rollins should be batting 6th or 7th.
Revere, Utley,Byrd,Howard,Ruiz,Brown,Rollins, Asche.
Posted by: philly58 | Thursday, February 06, 2014 at 08:56 PM
One way to limit PA's is to move him down to the bottom of the order. Hit him 7th or 8th. He's still likely to reach 434 plate appearances as that's only about 100 starts.
Hopefully when he sets the club records for hit and at-bats he's willing to waive his NTC.
Posted by: Jeff Miller | Thursday, February 06, 2014 at 08:58 PM
If Rollins comes out and is a .650 OPS guy again with an average-ish glove for April and May, is there any reason not to run Galvis out there everyday? As Rollins would have been in the below-league-average SS bat category in a sample size of ~850 PA over a season-and-a-third. There eventually comes a point where, whatever financial upside there is to a benching, that on-field performance will justify it.
Of course, that'd still leave the Phils on the hook for Jimmy's $5MM player option for 2015, but my mind boggles at how anyone in the front office could've thought that was a good idea.
Posted by: Juums | Thursday, February 06, 2014 at 09:07 PM
So you'd bench a .650 OPS Rollins after 2 months for a career .644 OPS Galvis? That might not go over too well.
Posted by: NEPP | Thursday, February 06, 2014 at 09:09 PM
Now if Rollins is sitting at around a .600 OPS after 2-3 months and Galvis has been posting a .700ish OPS with solid defense at 3B, 2B and SS in a decent sample size, you'd probably have solid leeway to start benching Rollins from there on out.
Posted by: NEPP | Thursday, February 06, 2014 at 09:15 PM
Rollins had 666 PA in 2013...
..1200 PA
.-666 PA
----------
.434 PA
How is the PA wrong?
Posted by: NEPP | Thursday, February 06, 2014 at 08:24 PM
My calculator get 534 PA. The 100 PA could make a difference
Posted by: Pop-Pop | Thursday, February 06, 2014 at 09:47 PM
Problem...I meant to type 1100 PA, not 1200 as that was the actual vesting number...so the 434 is right but my data entry skills suck.
Posted by: NEPP | Thursday, February 06, 2014 at 09:55 PM
NEPP:
The logic of playing Rollins over Galvis is that, while Rollins' age is catching up with him on defense, his positionally above-average bat will provide more value than Galvis's superior glovework. But if Rollins' bat last season is the new normal, after giving him a sufficient sample size in 2014 to prove otherwise (as I postulated in April and May of the season), why in God's name do you run him out there everyday? As at that point Rollins' bat's essentially equal to Galvis's, and Galvis is the superior defender.
Of course, all of this makes a couple of assumptions above and beyond those relating to Rollins' bat. Specifically, that Rollins really has lost a step and that Galvis will be a plus-defending SS. I think the latter's a safe assumption. The former's a much more debatable one, as single-season defensive sample sizes are notoriously unreliable. I genuinely hope that it was just an aberrant year, for as much as I like Freddy Galvis, I don't think any of us want to seriously debate the merits of Galvis vs. Rollins at SS.
So allow me to restate: Should 2013 Rollins show up for most of the first-half of 2014, the Phils should not let fear of a grievance from the MLBPA dictate their roster decisions.
Posted by: Juums | Thursday, February 06, 2014 at 10:46 PM
A question so provocative it took a week to come up with.
Answer: They can't do that, its illegal.
Posted by: timr | Thursday, February 06, 2014 at 10:53 PM
Just bat him 7th or 8th, then he's have to play 145-150 games to get that number of PA's. Gibe him a day off every week and with the injury that's bound to happen, he'll never make it.
Posted by: Scootch | Thursday, February 06, 2014 at 11:01 PM
PA by Batting Order Position:
#7: 662 (4.09 PA/GS)
#8: 643 (3.97 PA/GS)
Thus if he does indeed play 145 games, that'd be 593 PA for the #7 hole and 576 PA for the #8 spot. He'd have to have no more than 109 GS in the #8 hole for it not to vest.
109 x 3.97=433 PA
Posted by: NEPP | Thursday, February 06, 2014 at 11:12 PM
Benching a player, because you're no longer happy with a contract that you negotiated with him, would be as much an affront to whatever integrity is left in baseball as the players using PED's.
This is the thread of the week?
Posted by: Bubba | Friday, February 07, 2014 at 12:07 AM
No.
Posted by: PLM | Friday, February 07, 2014 at 01:30 AM
Corey: Since you are the senior writer, why don't you address the issues that have turned Beerleaguer into a pathetic excuse for a website, including -
1. Why no one seems to be in charge,
2. Why the same thread appears day after day until it turns yellow like an old newspaper,
3. How can BL allow one or two teenagers to steal the identities of legitimate posters and post simple-minded homosexual references about other legitimate posters that are only funny to young kids, and
4. Isn't anyone at CSN Philly embarrassed to be associated with a blog that has such low standards?
Posted by: derekcarstairs | Friday, February 07, 2014 at 01:38 AM
Because they're so thin on no-hit utility infielders, Brian Bixler is now the property of the Phillies.
Posted by: bay_area_phan | Friday, February 07, 2014 at 01:39 AM
I dont look at advanced stats or pretend to understand some of them. This improved plate discipline i dont see it. His numbers sans the # of HR look almost identical in '12-'13. If memory serves me correct only after Sandberg spoke up on the subject did he seem to be a little more patient at least on the surface.
Posted by: PLM | Friday, February 07, 2014 at 01:42 AM
I think that where Rollins bats in the order and whether or not Howard is platooned are Sandberg's decisions. Sandberg is not locked into Manuel's previous positions. I don't think that Amaro would interfere.
Does anyone disagree?
Posted by: derekcarstairs | Friday, February 07, 2014 at 02:03 AM
Rube is adeptly cornering the market on veteran middle utility infielders despite the fact this team already having Galvis and Hernandez and no corner OF or starting pitching depth organizationally. Like a bizarro Hunt brothers' strategy. Accumulating significant numbers of something he doesn't need or doesn't have much value to anyone else.
The last 2 offseasons along with Rube's comments to the media/public have me convinced he really is an a fool and bordering on grossly incompetent.
Posted by: MG | Friday, February 07, 2014 at 02:11 AM
As a practical matter, if the Phillies are 20 games out of 1st & Rollins is putting up the .667 OPS he posted last year, then there would be a perfectly valid non-financial reason for benching him in favor of Galvis. Even if the Phillies management secretly harbored an ulterior financial motive for the decision, no one could ever call them on it. It's like when the cops stop a car for a traffic infraction, when their real motive is to search for dope. Once the violation occurs, the stop is objectively reasonable and the presence of an ulterior motive ceases to matter.
Posted by: bay_area_phan | Friday, February 07, 2014 at 02:19 AM
I've read every word of the collective bargaining agreement. There is not a single word about any grievance right based on playing time. I've also googled for similar grievance situations and got no hits. Not sure anyone can question managements absolute right to determine who plays...can a bench player complain about his playing time if he OPS's higher than a starter? Are teams hamstrung from giving prospects a chance if they deem it in the team's best interest?
Options are not the same as guaranteed years. That's the risk a player takes. JR could have negotiated the option to vest based solely on his health for 2015. but didn't. Reading a grievance right v. a benching effectively renders moot all the AB stipulations moot.
There are also teams that openly cut players with a year left on their contracts precisely to avoid options from vesting with zero blow back (aka tht NY Muts).
So, to anyone dogging the writer based on the idea that benching JR is not even possible: SOURCE?
Posted by: Norma Rae | Friday, February 07, 2014 at 03:50 AM
I think J stroll is gonna play a lot. This team will be hovering again at the buy sell line. If they get AJ (which I don't understand y nothing hasn't been done yet) then he will play play play. Rube should have seen this from the get go. Oh wait never mind talking about rube sorry!
Posted by: Coach Kent Murphy | Friday, February 07, 2014 at 04:43 AM
Ruben has deftly and methodically amassed an army of veteran utility fieldsmen for a spring assault. Something's brewing. There's smoke on the horizon.
Posted by: Meyer | Friday, February 07, 2014 at 06:24 AM
This has been said in similar fashion but signing Burnett at least gives this team a flicker of hope. If we don't, you might as well forget it unless roob somehow has something else up his sleeve the next 10 days, which I highly doubt.
Posted by: Pblunts | Friday, February 07, 2014 at 06:52 AM
Wouldnt Jimmy sulk and hustle even less if he thinks not playing occasionally would cost him the option?
Posted by: Tim | Friday, February 07, 2014 at 07:40 AM
Galvis has made the team and will be able to go through the motions in Spring Training like the old timey starters. He's one of boys now. Hernandez can focus on learning the corner OF positions. Galvis will also make the panel of judges in selecting the finalists for the Ironpigs infield roster.
Posted by: Meyer | Friday, February 07, 2014 at 08:07 AM
This quote on Bixler from MLB Trade Rumors explains why Rube targeted him; pay particular attention to the last sentence:
His career big league line is a modest .189/.249/.269 in 356 plate appearances, and he slashed .259/.323/.372 in 345 plate appearances in the upper minors last year. Bixler's calling card is versatility: he has played every field position but pitcher and catcher at the MLB level, and in fact appeared everywhere but the battery and at first during his 2013 stint at Las Vegas.
He can't hit, but boy is he Versatile(TM)! It's all part of Rube's master plan to field a team of completely interchangeable players who can take up completely different positions in each inning.
Posted by: Allen Thornberg | Friday, February 07, 2014 at 08:49 AM
I think the real question mark here isn't if Rollins is now a 670 OPS hitter, but if Galvis can even be the .650 OPS hitter he has been to this point.
Since the Phillies completely botched his development at the plate by removing him from the minors after just one season of finally making progress at the plate, I bet him exposed to a full season of MLB pitchers would produce a OPS closr to .500 than it does .650 - and thats the real problem in my mind about benching Rollins.
Posted by: LorecorE | Friday, February 07, 2014 at 09:04 AM
And its too late now. You can't send Galvis back to AAA after two years in the bigs and start working on his game.
The best chance this org had with Galvis was to let him build on his plate approach after a hopeful 21yr old season at AA for another year and maybe more, and then introduce to the majors. He could have ultimately sucked anyway, but that at least gives him a shot.
Instead we have a clueless welterwight spinning like a top in the batters box just for a SLG% in the .300s while walking as much as Delmon Young - oh who by the way, all while racking up as many starts in SS as he has in LF.
What a piece of dogshit organization they have become in so little time, from top to bottom.
Posted by: LorecorE | Friday, February 07, 2014 at 09:19 AM
Welcome to the Phillies, where sucking at every position is more valuable than being good at one position
Posted by: Steve | Friday, February 07, 2014 at 09:21 AM
LorecorE's right about Galvis. I fail to understand the optimism about him. Rollins is declining, but from being the best shortstop the organization has ever put on the field. Galvis, at best, is a borderline MLBer.
So long as ROllins is on the team, there won't be a season during which it makes sense to give Galvis the majority of playing time over him on the basis of likely performance.
Posted by: bittel | Friday, February 07, 2014 at 09:34 AM
b_a_p: It's like when the cops stop a car for a traffic infraction, when their real motive is to search for dope. Once the violation occurs, the stop is objectively reasonable and the presence of an ulterior motive ceases to matter.
********
In the current regulatory environment I think it's even easier than you're saying. Keep in mind that we just saw MLB pretty much openly target Alex Rodriguez in order to relieve a member team of its obligation to pay him more than $25M next season. They made a mockery of what was already a dubious arbitration process within the league in order to make an example of the league's highest-paid, highest profile player (FAIAP).
I'm no Lester Munson (thank god), but Rollins has no shot to win a grievance if he's benched.
Posted by: bittel | Friday, February 07, 2014 at 09:41 AM
Most likely confirmation bias, but Galvis does seem to have a knack for late inning heroics. Could explain some of the optimism about the kid.
Plus, ya know... that defense.
Posted by: Cyclic | Friday, February 07, 2014 at 09:55 AM
Speaking of potentially shady tactics. Say Rollins gets a minor injury 3 weeks from the end of the season.
Could the Phillies keep him on the bench for a week or so "day to day" before deciding to put him on the 15 day DL, just so he ends the season on the DL?
Same question, I guess, with the 60 Day DL if he gets hurt close to 2 months from the end of the season.
Posted by: Cyclic | Friday, February 07, 2014 at 10:01 AM
Any thought on Dave Schoenfield having the Phils 29th in the majors this season? Projects a solid 66 wins.
http://espn.go.com/blog/sweetspot/post/_/id/44022/ranking-the-teams-30-through-25
Posted by: Bill | Friday, February 07, 2014 at 10:05 AM
Hopefully when he sets the club records for hit and at-bats he's willing to waive his NTC.
Posted by: Jeff Miller | Thursday, February 06, 2014 at 08:58 PM
-------------------------------------------
Would never happen b/c using r00b logic: if Rollins is hitting well enough to break team records, he's too valuable to trade away.
AKA, the Howard Paradox.
Posted by: nokwurst | Friday, February 07, 2014 at 10:05 AM
"Could the Phillies keep him on the bench for a week or so "day to day" before deciding to put him on the 15 day DL, just so he ends the season on the DL?"
There's no advantage to putting a guy on the DL in September, since rosters are expanded anyhow. So that would actually be fairly blatant.
Posted by: bay_area_phan | Friday, February 07, 2014 at 10:06 AM
Bill-- And that's.... why they play the games.
Posted by: Cyclic | Friday, February 07, 2014 at 10:07 AM
bap-- Yeah, I guess so. 60 day would be less blatant.
Posted by: Cyclic | Friday, February 07, 2014 at 10:08 AM
"60 day would be less blatant."
But moving him from the 15-day DL to the 60-day DL wouldn't change anything with regard to his option. They could just keep him on the 15-day DL for the rest of the season, and it would have the same effect. The 60-day DL is just a vehicle for removing the guy from your 40-man roster.
Posted by: bay_area_phan | Friday, February 07, 2014 at 10:12 AM
Juums: "Specifically, that Rollins really has lost a step and that Galvis will be a plus-defending SS. I think the latter's a safe assumption."
You ignore the far bigger question: Can Galvis hit enough to be an everyday player? If he posts a .225 BA and .245 OB, the answer is no, regardless of how good his glove is.
Posted by: clout | Friday, February 07, 2014 at 10:18 AM
I would echo the issues derekcarstairs brought up, but I think it's clear Corey and the other writers don't read the comments and discussion since I remember reading the commenters discussing this exact topic about Rollins at length a week or two ago. This is a fairly pointless topic anyway. It won't happen, and it would make the Phillies look very bad if they did purposely bench him so that the option doesn't vest.
Posted by: DE fan | Friday, February 07, 2014 at 10:21 AM
Bit the bullet and signed up over at TheGoodPhight...Sad to see the slow and pathetic demise of Beerleaguer over the past year or so.
As for Rollins, there have been grievnaces in the past for benchings for non-performance related reasons that cost players bonuses/options, but it doesn't look like it happens a lot. The most recent one I could find with a quick google search was Roger Cedeno over a decade ago.
Posted by: Chris in VT | Friday, February 07, 2014 at 10:26 AM
http://www.csnphilly.com/baseball-philadelphia-phillies/aj-burnett-phillie-not-likely
Citing team policy, general manager Ruben Amaro Jr. refused to talk specifically about any remaining free-agent pitchers. He acknowledged that he’s always on the lookout for potential upgrades, but didn’t sound like a guy planning for one in the short term.
“I don’t suspect we’ll be doing anything,” he said Friday. “I think we’ve got what we’ve got. I suspect we’ll go into the season with what we’ve got – or at least spring training with what we’ve got. We’re always looking, always trolling. I know there are guys out there, but I don’t suspect us having anything major coming through.”
So what else is new? Just a fitting end to another piss-poor off-season. I hope they do win only 66 games. Maybe that'll send a message to the FO that 1: You have to have good GM and 2: You have to be committed to winning (which obviously they are no longer) and 3. Just because the payroll is high, it doesn't mean you don't try.
They deserve exactly what they get.
Posted by: D Pat | Friday, February 07, 2014 at 10:32 AM
This whole season hinges on Larry Bowa and how he handles the delicate situation that is Jimmy Rollins.
Posted by: Meyer | Friday, February 07, 2014 at 10:33 AM
Phillies 2014: We've Got What We've Got"
Posted by: Cyclic | Friday, February 07, 2014 at 10:34 AM
Beerleaguer: Do you expect us to post when you give us no headers for a full week?
Komkast: No, Mr. Beerleaguer. I expect you to die.
Posted by: clout | Friday, February 07, 2014 at 10:34 AM
Not even taking a stab at Burnett is extremely disheartening if true. To me, it means they honestly believe they can't compete in 2014. He costs only money, which they have, and wouldn't require a long term commitment.
As I've said before, if even they don't believe the team can contend in 2014, why the heck should I?
And even if they are sticking to their guns, hedging their bets on the core turning back the clock like it's 2006-2009, why not get Burnett anyway and try to run away with this thing?
It really makes no sense. But actually, for them it probably just makes cents.
Either way, I look forward to Burnett signing somewhere else, having a sh!tty year, followed by the deluge of Beerleaguer posts... "2014 Phillies savior Burnett ERA back over 6"
Posted by: Cyclic | Friday, February 07, 2014 at 10:41 AM
As for Rollins, there have been grievnaces in the past for benchings for non-performance related reasons that cost players bonuses/options, but it doesn't look like it happens a lot.
****************
It doesn't happen because teams aren't that stupid and don't operate like that...because they know they'd lose.
There was talk about the Tigers trying it with Magglio a few years back and there was talk of the mets doing it with KRod before they traded him to MIL....but both situations resolved themselves.
Posted by: NEPP | Friday, February 07, 2014 at 10:43 AM
"Bit the bullet and signed up over at TheGoodPhight...Sad to see the slow and pathetic demise of Beerleaguer over the past year or so."
Chris, I've been there for a couple months, since new threads here became as frequent as Sunday church services.
For anyone interested, TGP has an interview up with the new Phils analytics guy:
http://www.thegoodphight.com/2014/2/7/5387436/tgp-exclusive-phillies-analytics-employee-scott-freedman#comments
It's well worth the read.
Posted by: awh™, Founder, Hire Jamie Moyer Club | Friday, February 07, 2014 at 10:50 AM
As to the topic of this thread, it's completely pointless. I didn't even read the header because it's not worth spending the brain cells.
It won't happen.
Posted by: awh™, Founder, Hire Jamie Moyer Club | Friday, February 07, 2014 at 10:57 AM
You would think that someone could just look at Cot's Contracts. If Jimmy's $11 million option doesn't vest the Phillies have an $8 million option. If the Phillies don't exercise that option than Rollins has a $5 million option. Regardless, if the Phillies purposefully bench him--without him having a valid injury--so that the option doesn't vest then the MLBPA will have a pretty crystal clear case on their hands and the Phillies will be disciplined. This isn't rocket science.
Posted by: MPNPhilly | Friday, February 07, 2014 at 11:03 AM
DPat, has it ever occurred to you that Philly might be Burnett's preferred destination if he wants to stay in the NL?
Did it occur to you that Amaro's quotes might be a bit of posturing?
I'm not saying that they'll sign Burnett, just that I wouldn't jump to any conclusions based on r00b's public pronouncements.
Since when has he been totally honest in the past?
Posted by: awh™, Founder, Hire Jamie Moyer Club | Friday, February 07, 2014 at 11:05 AM
and, oh yeah, since Jimmy had 600 ABs last year he only needs 500ABs this year for the contract to vest as long as he doesn't finish the year on the DL. And even if he is on the DL if a mutually agreed upon doctor says he will be ready to play in 2015 then the contract vests.
Posted by: MPNPhilly | Friday, February 07, 2014 at 11:06 AM
I have a hard time getting worked up about this subject matter on a day when the Phillies signed Brian Bixler.
Posted by: bay_area_phan | Friday, February 07, 2014 at 11:10 AM
I agree, awh. Hope Rube's just playing it close to the vest.
Posted by: Cyclic | Friday, February 07, 2014 at 11:10 AM
The thread should be about where Bixler sits on the futility infielder depth chart. He may be like 7th.
Posted by: Hugh Mulcahy | Friday, February 07, 2014 at 11:14 AM
So, let's see . . . that makes Brian Bixler, Ronny Cedeno, Reid Brignac, Andres Blanco, Freddy Galvis, Kevin Frandsen (he of the guaranteed deal). And I feel like I'm forgetting someone.
They're not going to sign A.J. Burnett, and they're apparently not going to add a single decent reliever to the major's 2nd worst bullpen. But if the 11th string 2nd baseman gets injured, they are totally covered. RAJ has his priorities in place.
Posted by: bay_area_phan | Friday, February 07, 2014 at 11:14 AM
Bap - Jim Negrych.
Posted by: Meyer | Friday, February 07, 2014 at 11:27 AM
Meyer: I actually think of him as more of an outfielder. But, yeah, he has played all over the field. Problem is, he has actually hit pretty well in the minors, which puts him behind all the other guys on RAJ's depth chart.
Posted by: bay_area_phan | Friday, February 07, 2014 at 11:33 AM
BTW, Cyclic, I happen to agree with this(bold emphasis mine):
"Not even taking a stab at Burnett is extremely disheartening if true. To me, it means they honestly believe they can't compete in 2014. He costs only money, which they have, and wouldn't require a long term commitment.
As I've said before, if even they don't believe the team can contend in 2014, why the heck should I?"
Posted by: awh™, Founder, Hire Jamie Moyer Club | Friday, February 07, 2014 at 11:37 AM
There is one scenario I could see in which Rollins doesn't vest, even if he plays 140 games.
He's been worse against LHP than RHP. What if he gets platooned with Galvis and bumped down in the order? In 2013, Rollins played in 160 games, with around 24.5% of them coming against LHP (in which he posted a .648 OPS). Assuming that about 25% of those came against relievers, that's 138 PAs against LHSP.
Small sample size, but Galvis' career splits are much friendlier against LHP (.713 OPS) than RHP (.616).
Batting Rollins 7th for 150 games would result in an average of 602 PAs, but if we face LHSP in the same proportion of his starts as last year (~21%), that's 31 games to drop, leaving him at
Posted by: Phillibuster | Friday, February 07, 2014 at 11:37 AM
487 PAs. Assuming he doesn't spend time mid-season on the DL, or get rested more than 15 games (against RHSP) out of the year even if he's totally healthy.
Of course, I'm not really a proponent of having Galvis take regular starts, even against LHSP...
But there's some creative math to be done, if you truly wanted to avoid the vesting option at all costs (without making it into an unwin-able grievance against the team).
Posted by: Phillibuster | Friday, February 07, 2014 at 11:38 AM
I'm convinced RAJ has a plan.
Posted by: Meyer | Friday, February 07, 2014 at 11:39 AM
Clout:
That's being a little facetious, isn't it? As the entire context of this discussion is a hypothetical where Rollins comes out and posts a .650 OPS, I thought it was obvious that the corollary was the assumption that Galvis would perform to his career .644 OPS line. If Galvis were to come out and stink up the joint with a .220/.245/.320 line, the benching math certainly changes.
But given that Galvis is entering his age-24 season, isn't it a little early to write off his .234/.283/.375 line from last year as a fluky career year? Isn't it generally better to bet on youth finding its upside than in veterans managing to turn back the clock? Especially when, in this particular discussion, Rollins would have been a .650 OPS guy through April and May of 2014 to avoid a bad-faith grievance. Galvis probably won't hit enough to be an everyday SS, but if all other things are equal in 2014 (as Jimmy's declining would make them, if the decline is indeed not just an off-season), wouldn't it be preferable to try and find out?
Posted by: Juums | Friday, February 07, 2014 at 11:47 AM
Juums: To be fair, Galvis' 2013 was the second-best season of his career at any level (the only better one - his .716 OPS 2011 - coming between AA and AAA, when he was almost certainly doping).
He's young enough that an improvement isn't crazy... But I think the odds of him regressing are probably higher. Especially with regular playing time.
Posted by: Phillibuster | Friday, February 07, 2014 at 11:55 AM
Phillibuster:
Oh, that's more than fair enough. But it's the dead of a cold winter in which there's been precious little to be excited about as a Phillies fan. The gauzy warmth of upside, even as limited as it is in Galvis's bat, should be appreciated while it can.
But there is a constant clamor on Beerleaguer about the Phils' perceived institutional preference for veterans and an unwillingness to let young talent sink or swim on the big stage. It's amusing that, when we get a hypothetical that might justify actually using such a young talent over a veteran, it's greeted by hand-wringing about the youngster's track record in limited playing time to date and questions as to his ability to ever reach his ceiling. Hand-wringing of the sort that, almost undoubtedly, is used by the front office to justify the derided institutional preference for veterans.
Posted by: Juums | Friday, February 07, 2014 at 12:03 PM
i too have bitten the bullet and signed up at TGF. i'm pretty impressed with the place and the posters. i still much prefer BL's aesthetics. happily, it looks like old animositys will be left behind, here. that will be nice to see. but, for now i'll be haunting both.
Posted by: bullit | Friday, February 07, 2014 at 12:08 PM
The fact that Amaro says no signings are on the horizon doesn't necessarily mean a thing. He'd only be risking driving up the price on Burnett if he says they really like him.
That said yeah, I'd be surprised (pleasantly) if he offers Burnett the money it would take to sign him. This team is deeply saddening.
Posted by: bittel | Friday, February 07, 2014 at 12:08 PM
I like Galvis, but the reason he equaled Rollins' OPS last year was because he hit 6 homeruns in 222 PAs, while Rollins had a career-worst season in homeruns. I'm willing to believe that a power surge from a 23-year old is real. And I also think it's fair to assume that Rollins has probably lost some power at age 35. But, given that he hit 21 homers in 2012, and 16 the year before that, you can color me dubious that Rollins is going to repeat that 6-homerun, .348 slugging season from 2013. I think his 2013 power numbers will prove to be an outlier.
If you assume that Rollins & Galvis are about equal when it comes to power, then that makes Rollins the vastly superior offensive player because of Galvis's heinously bad OBP.
Posted by: bay_area_phan | Friday, February 07, 2014 at 12:12 PM
Juums: Yeah, I can understand the desire for speculation on the subject... I just think that, given his career trajectory and the PED suspension, Galvis probably isn't a legitimate candidate for significant improvement on his career numbers (MiLB career .615 OPS).
I think the only way you can get away with running him out there at SS on a semi-regular basis is an injury, or maybe a Rollins platoon. Even that's a stretch, but at least it's not so much of one that the team would lose the grievance before it was filed.
Posted by: Phillibuster | Friday, February 07, 2014 at 12:16 PM
AWH~ Yes all that has occurred to me. But based on what little has happened this off-season, I tend to believe RAJ in this case. Also, as I've said many times, he's been told not to increase payroll.
This is extremely disheartening to me as far as the pitching goes at least. The staff as a whole is little changed. Sandberg was on MLB radio yesterday morning. I didn't catch all of the conversation, but he pointed that MAG hasn't pitched in 2 years but there is starting pitching depth around him. Really? Where?
This oraganization clearly believes this team can contend if they stay healthy. Fat chance of either happening.
Posted by: D Pat | Friday, February 07, 2014 at 12:24 PM
Juums: I absolutely support the idea of giving Galvis as much PT as possible to see what he can do. I just don't share your optimism about him.
Posted by: clout | Friday, February 07, 2014 at 12:57 PM
DPat's posts make zero sense. Reading them and trying to comprehend what he's saying hurts my head.
Posted by: Redburb | Friday, February 07, 2014 at 01:14 PM
Even I wouldn't stoop as low as to bench Rollins to avoid the option vesting. Well, maybe.
Posted by: Jeffrey Loria | Friday, February 07, 2014 at 01:28 PM
This will be my last post here for a while probably because my posting allegiances have jumped ship and "I'm taking my talents to Good Phight."
However, before I leave I want to say I appreciate the input of guys like clout, Juums, Iceman, MG, and Redburb- and implore you guys to come on over to The Good Phight.
The site is a little less aesthetically pleasing compared to this one (as far as posting and reading threads) but the content and headers are much better AND lorecore, BAP, and NEPP and I have agreed that past animosities stay here and we all start fresh. That will devolve at some point but hey- we got a few days in us.
Also, the guys who write the headers actually get involved in discussions and seem like great guys.
Thanks JW for the work over the years- your insight, humor, and commentary was always welcome and a joy to read. It is a shame to see what this place has become and I will no longer watch the place burn to the ground.
I wish you all the best and hopefully one day we meet again on another website to discuss another consecutive year playoff run.
Even you DPat. In fact, you come over too.
Posted by: The Truth Injection | Friday, February 07, 2014 at 01:31 PM
To be fair Jeffrey, you'd never keep a player long enough for him to obtain 10 and 5 rights, nor would you sign a contract with a no trade clause, now would you?
Posted by: Hugh Mulcahy | Friday, February 07, 2014 at 01:34 PM
That interview with the Phillies new "analytics" guy is not particularly enlightening. The guy gives no insight whatsoever except to say, over and over, that Ruben is "inclusive" and "listens to what I say."
It reads like a press release. Not that I would expect anything different from a team employee, but I fail to see what is particularly interesting about the interview from a fan's perspective.
Posted by: Jack | Friday, February 07, 2014 at 01:48 PM
Honestly, I find TGP overall much more upbeat about the team and organization than BL. I'm a little surprised some of the folks who went there did so, given that.
Posted by: Phillibuster | Friday, February 07, 2014 at 01:52 PM
TTI: "lorecore, BAP, and NEPP and I have agreed that past animosities stay here and we all start fresh."
On the other hand, when you come back to post here, it's on!
I think a few of us are in sort of a blog transition phase. I signed up and have been posting on TGF, but the layout of the site simply baffles me. Instead of just listing the posts in chronological order, every thread has a series of sub-threads, depending what post you're responding to. You do get an alert when there's a new post, but if you don't click on it within a few seconds, it disappears & then, if you want to read it, you have to figure out where exactly it appears in the thread -- which is a hopeless endeavor, since they're not in chronological order. Plus, there can be like 5 threads going at once -- each with its own sub-threads. But maybe I'll get used to it after awhile, like in a hot tub.
Posted by: bay_area_phan | Friday, February 07, 2014 at 01:58 PM