Will A.J. Burnett's groundballs be wasted with Phils?

The two most appealing parts of A.J. Burnett's game are his abilities to induce swings-and-misses and groundballs. He's second in the majors with a 57.6% groundball rate since 2012. But will that matter as much with the Phillies as it did with the Pirates?

When the Phils first signed Burnett, ESPN's Keith Law opined that it was a waste of a move for a team that likely couldn't contend anyway. I don't agree with that assessment, but I do lend some merit to Law's claim that the Phillies aren't the ideal team to field Burnett's groundballs.

One reason Law cites for that is the Pirates' penchant for infield shifts and the Phillies' lack of shifting. Another is the poor defense from Ryan Howard at first base, the declining defensive skills of Jimmy Rollins at shortstop and the average defense Cody Asche showed in the second half of 2013.

I took a look at the numbers and it is a bit worrisome. 

Since 2012, Burnett has allowed a .222 batting average on groundballs. The league average over that span was .240. 

This past season, the Phillies allowed a .260 batting average on groundballs, second-highest in the majors and better only than the Tigers, who had statues at both corners with Miguel Cabrera and Prince Fielder.

The Pirates, meanwhile, allowed a .224 batting average on grounders, fifth-best in the majors.

Inducing the groundball is only half the battle; fielding it is the other. 

The good news is that Burnett was excellent these last two seasons even while maintaining normal BABIPs. His batting average on balls in play last season was .305, and the year before it was .294. And yet his opponents hit below .240.

Comments

[Bubba]

Howard HR to dead center , off a LH pitcher.
First real game on TV tomorrow.
All is right with the world.

JW- How about a guest appearance to kick off the spring?

[bullit]

glad to hear that the newly svelt howard still has CF power. can't wait until tomorrow @ 1:05.

[Gregm]

Mike Schmidt is allegedly going to be in the Broadcast Booth for all 13 Sunday Home Games. Should make for a nice addition. He seems pretty straight-forward and real.

[Dickie Thong]

I guess losing weight is contagious (I wish).

[PLM]

Not sure if i heard right was on phone and some one was talking to me at same time. Did news say Cole has been pushed back. Is this the typical it isnt that serious of injury mumbo jumbo? Only to get pushed back again then more Zobille Zoo mumbo jumbo? Until they finally have to admit what the real problem was.

[Gregm]

I've heard it will be pushed back one day, PLM. So yeah, R.I.P. Cole Hamels.

[Dragon]

Howard hits a home run off a lefty?! Look out postseason, here we come!

[PLM]

Oh ok lol only caught the been pushed back part thanks Gregm.

[bullit]

learned a new name today - David Buchanan. mcclure was happy with his 3 inning performance today. he'll be 25 in may so i hope he continues to LG. 4-2 last year at LV with an ERA of 3.00. one more ST story. clout will have the scoop on him.

[Lake Fred]

I'm looking forward to spring, but it still seems like winter to me. The colleges have been playing for the last two weekends down here.

I think that last season's Phillies left such a stink that this year's spring training just does not excite me. Posters are making total win predictions already? How does one do that? Take last year's win total and subtract ten?

I mean, really, Abreu was on his downslide when he left, before the golden years and the WFC. Who in their right mind would want him back? Oh, I forgot, Mr. Ruben "Right Mind"!

[clout]

bullit: Buchanan's sub 6 K/9 means he can't possibly have an MLB career as Jack, BAP and numerous other posters here will tell you.

That said, he's really not as good a prospect as was KK, the pitcher he's compared to. He was too often hittable at Reading and he doesn't have a sinker like KK. His best pitch is a 94 mph fastball. He throws a hard slurve, which could raise his chances quite a bit if he could command it consistently, which he can't. He's been working on a changeup too.

But, you never know.

[PLM]

I knew of Buchanan but completely forgot about him. Wasnt till the Pettibone news that i started briefly scouring the Phils options for a 6/7 guy that i glanced at his name again. Doesnt seem to K many batters for a guy that is suppose to primarily be relying on a 94 MPH FB.

[PLM]

Lake Fred maybe their is a secret hand shake deal with former players. We will try and bring you back when you are pushing 40 or at the end of your career.

[WSJ]

Interesting commentary about Sandberg regarding Franco.

http://www.montgomerynews.com/articles/2014/02/25/sports/pro_and_college/doc5306121c97923663666489.txt?viewmode=fullstory

Although he’s only seen Franco for a few days, Sandberg understands why he’s considered the organization’s top position-player prospect and made it clear the 21-year-old’s fielding at third base is better than adequate. “He really moves good at third base — a really good glove,” Sandberg said of Franco, who hit a combined .320 with 36 doubles, 31 homers and 103 RBIs in 134 games last season. “He has a knack for the harder the play it is, the softer he is. I don’t know where he got that. … That’s instincts. That is second-nature stuff.

Sandberg was more vague when it came to how firm a hold Asche has on the job, only saying that there are a lot of jobs up for competition in camp.

[bullit]

thanks, clout. i saw the interview with buchanan on the phillies home site, and he seemed like a great guy. drafted by the mets in 2009 and again by the phils in 2010. yesterday, iirc he gave up a HR to caesar and then struck out the side, including franco.

[bullit]

biddle has been picking doc's brain, particularly about the mental aspect of the game. roy characterized jesse's ability as "off the charts." if doc wants to show his coatching moxie, he should make aumont a project.

[NEPP]

***if doc wants to show his coatching moxie, he should make aumont a project.***

We walk before we run...

[bullit]

could manship really be the first pitcher out of the box today? crank up ELO's "10538 Overture."

[PLM]

Wow scary me an Clout post are similar and at the same time.

[bullit]

best version i could find on youtube w/ lyrics.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zAYOAHz-N08

[PLM]

if doc wants to show his coatching moxie, he should make aumont a project.

Well hopefully Doc can psychoanalyze him in the process.

[RK]

Better unfielded groundballs than unfielded fly balls!

[Bonehead]

Season = saved

http://www.philly.com/philly/blogs/phillies/Hamels-confident-after-first-bullpen-session.html

[bullit]

thanks bonehead. are you a fan of jody (son of joel) mcrea's "bonehead" character in the avalon & funicello beach and surf movies?

[Cyclic]

Hamels will miss 1 start. The instead of using a 4 man rotation, they will use a spot starter, who will get shelled. The Phillies miss the 2nd wild card by 1 game.

Season = Over

[bullit]

while we're all waiting for the show to begin here are 2 more of ELO's greatest with jeffrey lynn. lennon used to say, if the Beatles had stayed together they would have been ELO. he called them "Son of Beatles."

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mEh3RJ5apIo

[Kashmir]

bittel, what sports book posted the over/under at 78 games? I've been looking at futures bets and found some early WS lines, but no team O/U's yet. Bovada has the Phils at 33-1 behind 16 other teams. Dodgers are the early favorites at 13/2 followed by the Tigers at 9/1.

[Kashmir]

Posted at 12:28 by GregM:

"Mike Schmidt is allegedly going to be in the Broadcast Booth for all 13 Sunday Home Games. Should make for a nice addition. He seems pretty straight-forward and real."

I'd like to hear that. I always enjoy listening to Schmitty talk baseball.

[bullit]

both stairs and moyer will be in the booth with the jabberwocky today.

[Phillibuster]

Fred: I'm not really in love with the Abreu signing either, but let's not make mountains out of molehills either.

Even if he makes the 25-man roster, he's not going to be a starter. He's not going to be an everyday player. Odds are good the only way he takes the field is in the event of an in-game injury.

The bar for a player being useful in that situation is significantly lower than "starting RF."

[Kashmir]

Philli, agree on the Abreau situation and don't expect he'll get more than 100-150 AB's this year. With another manager and another team I wouldn't see him getting that many AB's, but I think Sandberg intends to use his bench more than most managers if for no other reason than to give the older guys a break. I see Abreau's role as mostly pinch hitting and spelling Byrd every now and then. He plays no position other than RF, limiting the ways he could work himself into the lineup even with injuries. He's the 25th man on a 25-man roster.

[MG]

So Sandberg is going to use Revere-JRoll-Utley-Howard as his top of the order?

Ugh. Boggles my mind after watching teams trot out LHP reliever specialists the last few years when the Phils don't split Utley-Howard.

JRoll is a low avg/low OBP guy (sub .250/sub .320) at this point and has no business hitting higher in the order. On a really good lineup, he would hit 8th and on most 7th. JRoll also can't hit LHP anymore, Utley has notably dropped off, and Howard is a dead man walking against any lefty reliever with a decent slider or gas on the high cheese.

Literally can use a lefty reliever starting with Revere and let him go through the order including down to Brown.

[Phillibuster]

Kashmir: I imagine he could play LF, but since Domonic is pretty bad at D, I wouldn't want him playing RF as a general rule.

I guess in the event of a Brown injury, he could slot in at LF for a brief period... But I'd think Mayberry would be more likely to get that job, and he'd probably do it better (his bat being a caveat, of course).

[Phillibuster]

MG: Revere does not have very drastic career splits between LHP and RHP (less than a .030 OPS difference - in favor of LHP).

In 2013, Rollins had an identical BA and nearly-identical OBP (.002 difference) against LHP as RHP. He had a massive split in the three years before that, but 2013 didn't follow the same trend (182 PA against LHP, so statistically-significant within a single season's results).

In 2013, Utley had a very noticeable platoon split. Utley also had a .753 OPS against LHP (170 PA), complete with a much better K/BB ratio than against RHP.

I'm not going to disagree that setting up 4 would-be lefties (Rollins probably should bat LH exclusively now, for power if no other reason) in a row has the potential to get mowed down by LOOGYs, but the situation is not as dire as you have presented it.

[bittel]

Saw 78 wins as 0/U number at vegasinsider.com, as of Feb 13. Via Atlanis Sportsbook in Reno, NV. Others have seen as low as 76.5 elsewhere.

http://www.vegasinsider.com/mlb/story.cfm/story/1510868

[Mike G]

I am out of the closet sucking cock