After Hamels' setback, Burnett, Gonzalez rocked

A day after Cole Hamels realized he needed to "step back and start over" in preparation for the 2014 season because of a "fatigued arm," the Phillies' starting pitching got no better on Friday.

A.J. Burnett and Miguel Alfredo Gonzalez were shelled in Sarasota, Fla., as the Phils were eviscerated by the Orioles, 15-4.

The game was not televised locally, but here were the lines for Burnett and Gonzalez.

Burnett: 3 IP, 7 H, 6 R, 6 ER, 1 BB, 1 SO

Gonzalez: 1 IP, 4 H, 4 R, 4 ER, 2 BB, 0 SO

According to the Philadelphia Inquirer’s Matt Gelb, Gonzalez was burned by a few seeing-eye singles, but was erratic and fell behind five of his nine batters faced, while his fastball clocked between 88-90 mph.

Sure, it's only spring training, but just about nothing has gone right for the club's starting pitching, which, before the team even arrived in Florida, was besieged by question marks.

It's only gotten worse.

At the plate
• Darin Ruf is hitting .316 after clubbing his second homer of the spring

• Marlon Byrd had a hit and an RBI and is batting .368 thus far

• Ryan Howard delivered a two-out, RBI double off of left-hander Brian Matusz

Not just the arms
The Phillies' bats have been just as worrisome as the starting rotation. Among all of baseball this spring, the Phils are dead-last in batting average (.189), on-base percentage (.279), slugging percentage (.301) and extra-base hits (17).

Up next
The Phillies host the Astros on Saturday at 1:05 p.m. Righty Roberto Hernandez will make his third spring start.

Comments

[jbird]

Acquiring Ichiro is like adding deck chairs to the Titanic.

[NEPP]

***Now watch a Ruf-for-Ichiro trade go down in the next 24 hours...***

Now that'd be hilarious.

[Phillibuster]

BAP: That doesn't really apply in ST, though. They're facing split squads, guys who are going to start in the minors, MiLB contracts with early opt-out dates, players who just aren't in game-ready shape yet...

I get that, watching on GameDay, there's little recourse to trying to figure out who's going to make it and who's going to be cut... But I'd place maybe 10% weight on the statistics for early ST games. I'd imagine the Phillies FO places significantly less, and probably rightfully so.

[Phillibuster]

Ah, ah, ah. Remember, you have to include the PtBNL.

[LorecorE]

We should all write a quick paragraph of what Amaro's press conference would sound like after a Ruf/Ichiro swap.

If it happened, I'm pretty sure a handful of people would be able to predict about 95% of the words Amaro actually says.

[NEPP]

****Ah, ah, ah. Remember, you have to include the PtBNL.***

JP Crawford...they cant include him in a deal until 1 year after he signed.

[Phillibuster]

Also, you have to picture a Dennis Nedry screensaver saying that line.

[Jack]

"Ichiro is a proven everyday guy. We know he can play out there every day.

Ruf is a nice prospect, but we felt we needed someone who has a history of production, a guy who knows how to be out there everyday, who can field his position. If you look at his history, Ichiro is one of the best hitters ever, and he's a guy who produces at the plate every year, 200 hits, .300 AVG. When you have a chance to add one of the best hitters of all-time, we felt like for us, we had to do it and it gives us the best chance to win now."

[bay_area_phan]

"I'm pretty sure a handful of people would be able to predict about 95% of the words Amaro actually says."

Any time you've got a chance to add a future Hall of Famer to your team, you've got to do it. Is he the same player maybe he was 3 years ago? Probably not. But he's still got a great arm. He's still stole 20 bases last year. He still does all the little things well. He gives us a true leadoff hitter who can fill in when one of our guys is injured. He adds defensive versatility to our club because he can play all 3 outfield positions. You're talking about a guy who has been the MVP of the All Star Game and who knows what it's like to drive in the go-ahead run in the final game of the American League Divisional Series. That kind of experience is invaluable.

We hated to lose a guy like Ruf, because there's no doubt that he can hit. But, unfortunately, we don't really have a place for a guy who can only play 1st base, so if you can trade him away to get a 10-time All Star, you have to do it.

[Kashmir]

Ichiro slashed .262/.297/.342 in 555 PA's last year. The numbers are only slightly better over the last 3 years. But he's old and doesn't walk, so Amaro might do something stupid to get him. The biggest impediment would probably be how much salary they could get the Yankees to take back.

[Jack]

I forgot to add:

"His production has been down a little bit the last couple years, but our scouts are confident they saw enough that he can still get back to the kind of hitter he was before. Is he a little older? Of course, but I don't think that means he forgot how to hit."

[LorecorE]

I would add to the above:

"There's not a lot of left handed bats out there, and most don't have the production or experience like Ichiro does. We really like the added versatility a left handed bat gives us."

[MG]

NEPP - Didn't realize you were an ex-IDX guy.

Agreed that trading for Ichiro makes no sense. He is a clear upgrade defensively and on the basepaths over Abreu but at the plate probably a wash.

No mention of a no-trade clause in Ichiro's deal on Cot's or on articles when he signed last year with the Yanks.

Imagine if Ichiro has any say, he will clearly veto a deal to the Phils. Didn't sign here last year when the Phils offered more money & the Yanks are at least on paper bet set to contend for a playoff spot.

[bay_area_phan]

Ichiro does bat left-handed, but he actually has reverse platoon splits over the last 3 years. Hence, it's not like his left-handedness is some sort of positive attribute.

[Allen Thornberg]

Yeah, but remember this is the same team that played Juan Pierre against right-handed starters for ages despite HIS platoon splits.

[LorecorE]

bap: we'll (hopefully) never know what Amaro says in an acquisition of Ichiro, but if it happens I will bet you anything that his left handedness is mentioned as a positive attribute when explaining his actions.

[Reality]

Ichiro is not going to be traded for.

Olney is almost never right- you are given this way more thought than is necessary. MG could spend his time reading up on issues so he can form a balanced opinion. BAP could get a clue. Jack could go play in traffic. Lorecore could work on saying something interesting.

[bay_area_phan]

"if it happens I will bet you anything that his left handedness is mentioned as a positive attribute when explaining his actions."

Oh, I'm not disputing that. I'm just preemptively noting that it would be a completely stupid thing to say.

[MG]

Reality - It was just mentioned and there isn't much else to talk about.

How about you trying to stop being a curmudgeon for a change?

[Allen Thornberg]

Reality, if you really can't get a chuckle out of the dead-on parodies of Amaro's press-conference-speak above, you're even more humorless than I thought. Lighten up before you explode with rage, man.

[NEPP]

***Didn't realize you were an ex-IDX guy.***

Ah, so you're familiar with what they did to IDX then. Just an utter travesty.

[Phillibuster]

Also, I'm not sure I trust the lack of TV coverage currently cited.

Orioles could end up on MASN (since they're not covering anything else), and when the Phillies host the Yankees I have to think CSN or TCN or MLB will have it, even if only to get the Yankees viewership.

[Reality]

Oh man...guys doing the same material they've been doing for 2 years now...Hilarious stuff AT. When you going to add something to the topic?

Why is humor only allowed when it is at the expense of the organization? Are we not allowed to mock the super sensitivity of other posters?

Plenty of topics to discuss rather than spending a minute of time on a report from a hacky reporter who is almost never right.

[Phillibuster]

To be fair, he's probably right more often than Eskin.

That's not exactly shooting for the moon, though.

[bay_area_phan]

Great start.

[LorecorE]

Olney simply said Ichiro seems to be odd man out of NYY OF, and mentioned PHI lacks OF.

He never said its a trade thats going to happen. Just like no one here said it would either.

[Putin]

I'm observing the comments here and deciding whether to annex it.

[Phillibuster]

Meh. How Lee looks on 3/10 isn't a major concern to me.

[Reality]

Lorecore: Never said a trade would happen. Let me ask- do you actually read or do you type things hoping it responds to some aspect of the conversation. That would make you so much more tolerable- if you didn't realize how stupid you were.

To your other point:

"Olney reporting the Phils are possibly interested in acquiring Ichiro who is an odd-man out in Yankees starting."

"

Phils made an offer to Ichiro last offseason was 2 yrs and supposedly even slightly more than the Yanks' offered him.

Imagine Ichiro is Amaro's prototypical guy - a guy who hits for a high average (or has historically done so), makes frequent contact, and doesn't BB much."

I realize it is hard to take that extra second to hit the previous button on the page but MG certainly seemed to jump to the trade aspect.

Also, these were my comments:

"Olney is right like 1% of the time. Always bet on the 99%."

"Ichiro is not going to be traded for.

Olney is almost never right- you are given this way more thought than is necessary."

I never said a trade would happen either- but man you got your post typed fast and sort of contributed to the discussion. You are one step ahead of AT

[Phillibuster]

Revere looks like he was told to take more pitches. He's still swinging fast at anything remote near the zone, but he's making sure to follow that up by taking a pitch that doesn't look like a guaranteed strike.

[Phillibuster]

Not sure I dig the new lower-case "a" on the Bravos' hats.

[Reality]

There would be nothing wrong with Revere looking to take more pitches and be a more complete hitter at the top of the order.

[Phillibuster]

Certainly there wouldn't. Just noting that he seems to be following an instruction on the subject.

[aksmith]

I think Revere actually needs not to take a first strike. Pitchers throw him fat fastballs right down the middle so often on that first pitch it's getting to be monotonous. And since he doesn't have to work the pitcher to get that pitch since he's getting it right off, I think he needs to actually swing at it. Most guys work the pitcher to get just such a pitch. It's not like he's Utley of old, where he can spit on a first pitch strike and still have a good at bat. He needs to let pitchers know they're sometimes going to have to work from behind in the count against him.

[jbird]

Reality: seriously, you come off as a very unhappy person. Whatever is going on in your life to make you so mad at everyone, I'm sorry. I hope it gets better. If you want to talk about something else, then start talking about something else, there are usually 2 or 3 topics going on at any one time.

[Phillibuster]

ak: In this case, the first pitch was outside and low, but he then took another one about thigh high on the inside part of the zone.

In his second AB, he wrenched himself out of his shoes on a first-pitch swing, but smashed it right into the ground in front of Freeman's glove.

[bay_area_phan]

In theory, Revere taking more pitches is a good thing. In practice, I'm not so sure. Revere's walk total isn't low because he swings at bad pitches. His walk total is low because he's a high-contact hitter and, when he swings, he usually puts it in play. If he takes more pitches, he'll probably draw a few more walks, but he'll also substantially increase the number of 2-strike counts that he gets himself into. And, like nearly every hitter in baseball, his numbers are terrible on 2-strike counts. So, if he starts taking more pitches, his walks will go up only slightly (since, eventually, when he does swing, he'll probably put it in play). But his average will go down, potentially by a decent amount (since he'll be in more 2-strike counts). Doesn't seem like a good tradeoff. If he thinks he can hit a pitch, I'd rather see him try to do it.

[Phillibuster]

Nice, patient double by Byrd. Let Avilan throw the hittable pitch.

[MG]

Gelb's projected Opening Day roster

CATCHERS (2)
Carlos Ruiz
Wil Nieves

INFIELDERS (6)
Ryan Howard
Chase Utley
Cody Asche
Jimmy Rollins
Freddy Galvis
Kevin Frandsen

OUTFIELDERS (5)
Domonic Brown
Ben Revere
Marlon Byrd
John Mayberry Jr.
Bobby Abreu

STARTERS (4)
Cliff Lee
A.J. Burnett
Kyle Kendrick
Roberto Hernandez

RELIEVERS (8)
Jonathan Papelbon
Antonio Bastardo
Jake Diekman
Brad Lincoln
B.J. Rosenberg
Justin De Fratus
Shawn Camp
Kevin Munson

DISABLED LIST (4)
Cole Hamels
Mike Adams
Jonathan Pettibone
Ethan Martin

Phils frontline talent isn't terrible but they aren't good remotely enough anymore either to carry what are the dregs on the rest of the roster.

A bench of Nieves, Frandsen, Galvis, JMJ, and Abreu is as bad anybody in MLB and a bullpen that is rounded out by a Rule V pick & a reliever (Camp) who should be in AAA. 5th likely will be O'Sullivan or Manship to start.

Last year the Phils had the worst back end of the roster based on fWAR besides the Astros. The year before it was the 4th worst. Really hard to see the back end of this roster again not being one of the worst 3-4 in MLB. Really is a lot of AAA-talent/organizational filler.

http://www.philly.com/philly/blogs/phillies_zone/Phillies-roster-projection-Ver-10.html

[Phillibuster]

Howard catches a pitch inside on the wrong side of the bat, swats it down the 1B line right into the first-baseman.

Liked his approach, though, got the count to 2-1 before he even swung the bat, and it was at something in the zone.

[LorecorE]

phlipper: you agree with almost everything people say here. You think they'll be double digit games out of WC by the summer, that they'll dump Lee at the deadline, and in this instance - that they won't trade for Ichiro.

These are all things that I and others say and agree with. So enjoy pretending that you're here to correct all of the foolish things that are said, when you actually have the exact same thoughts.

[Nonamephame (Founder of the Cody Asche fan club, no scout-lovers allowed)]

O/U 485.5 runs scored in 2014?

[Reality]

Lorecore: You do realize where I differ is where people lose their minds and say stupid ass things.

[Willard Preacher]

There is ONE conclusive statement that I can draw and feel 100% confident in, based on nothing more than this singular game in early-to-mid March: Dan Uggla's face remains among the most punchable in all the game.

[bay_area_phan]

Hollands is looking sharp.

[jbird]

MG: amazing how expensive mediocrity is these days.

[LorecorE]

Beachy left the Phils game in the 2nd IP despite being scheduled to throw 4 IP for precautionary concerns, after only throwing in the mid 80s.

[LorecorE]

Reports are 'bicep soreness'. Bothered him previous starts this spring and worsened today.

[bay_area_phan]

So we were facing a lame pitcher who was topping out in the mid-80s, and we still couldn't score so much as a single run off of him?

[bay_area_phan]

With about 8/9 of our likely opening day lineup, I might add.

[Phillibuster]

BAP: Your concern over early-ST effectiveness seems way overstated. He was throwing a lot of curveballs that were exceptionally hard to square up, and they were (mostly) patient at the plate.

I was actually pretty ok with how they approached Beachy, for the most part.

[bay_area_phan]

Philli: Our offense has stunk for at least 2 full years. The fact that we stink in early spring training games is not meaningful, but it is damn sure illustrative.

[Phillibuster]

BAP: You can't have that both ways. Either it's indicative and means something, or it's meaningless and both too small a sample size and during a time when the actual numbers are misleading.

Early ST is like Whose Line Is It Anyway. The show's made up, and the points don't matter.

[Phillibuster]

That's not to say the offense won't stink during the regular season also, but that's only peripherally related to their ST performance, and the one cannot be used in predictive fashion to the other.

[Reality]

The fact that we stink in early spring training games is not meaningful....

Could've just stopped there instead of saying your same stupid song and dance routine.

[Phillibuster]

Could've. Didn't. C'est la.

[bay_area_phan]

Philli: I didn't say it's meaningful. I said it's illustrative. 2 completely different concepts.

Meaningful means that, if this were the only information we had, we could make predictions based on this information.

Illustrative means that, while it has no predictive value in and of itself, it illustrates what we already knew.

[Phillibuster]

BAP: If it's not meaningful, it actually doesn't do that.

Even 1 AB during the regular season, while hardly a significant sample size, is still a data point that affects the whole. Even in the AZ Fall League or Dominican leagues, they're at least playing to win, having already gotten into shape all season long.

In spring training, they're literally using the time to recover from an extended break in playing baseball. Getting timing back, getting a feel for their pitches, working muscles harder than just the off-season workouts, etc. The mental approach of hitters is far more important than the outcome - even if the assumption that a better mental approach will generally lead to better results doesn't appear to be borne out.

Especially on the 2nd day of the 2nd week of live games.

[Phillibuster]

Again, that's not saying they won't stink out loud in the regular season. But until they do, you're treating an early ST sample as predictive if you claim it is indicative of anything other than "they did poorly in ST."

Michael Martinez had an OPS over .900 in 2012's ST, but that didn't tell us something that turned out to be relevant. Same goes for Cliff Lee's 4.74 ERA in 2011's ST.

[bay_area_phan]

I mean, just because ST has no predictive value doesn't mean it's random. If the Cardinals & Phillies played 10 spring training games, the results of those 10 spring training games would have no predictive value in telling us how their 2014 seasons are going to play out. But that doesn't change the fact that the Cardinals would probably win 6 or 7 of those games. If one team is good, and has good organizational depth, and the other team is bad, and has poor organizational depth, the good team is going to win more often than not.

[bay_area_phan]

Philli: So you think it's just completely random that a team which was one of the worst offenses in baseball last year has been one of the worst offenses in ST?

[Reality]

So ST matters except for when it doesn't.

God BAP- you sound dumb just stop. I know your buddy brigade will come in to defend you but you sound dumb.

[Phillibuster]

BAP: Sure. And if one batter faces one pitcher 2-3 times, there's generally around a 65-70% chance the batter's going to fail in any given PA. Even if the pitcher's not showcasing great stuff.

Seeing as most of the lineup only got 2 PAs against Beachy, and made him use a fair number of pitches doing so (think he was over 40 by the end of 2), I'm not terribly upset by the outcome.

[Phillibuster]

BAP: It's not "completely random," it's "completely unrelated," at least when referring to the first 9 games.

In 2013 ST, the Rockies had the highest OPS in the NL, the Padres had the 2nd-highest, and the Phillies had the 6th-highest.

In the regular season, the only reason the Rockies retained the highest is because of Coors Field (their .148 ISO was second only to the Braves'), while the Phillies fell to 12th, and the Padres fell to 13th.

[Phillibuster]

Incidentally, the Pirates and Brewers were 14th and 15th for OPS in ST, then moved up to 8th and 9th in the regular season.

[Phillibuster]

Papelbon looking like he's having trouble staying down in the zone. Lots of his stuff coming in about half a foot higher than Chooch is setting his glove.

[Reality]

But it is important Buster and it means something.

[bay_area_phan]

Philli: Well, ST is obviously not just about the 25 players on the team. If a team has a lousy projected roster, but good organizational depth, I'd expect them to do pretty well in ST.

[Phillibuster]

BAP: Nobody's going to argue that the Phillies have great organizational depth at the near-MLB minors. Or at least, I hope nobody is. However, that doesn't mean the statistics drawn from 2 PAs/game against some of the first live pitching they've seen in 6 months has any major significance.

Am I concerned/depressed that Brown is still swinging at slop and Revere is coming out of his shoes on pitches inside? Definitely. Ditto Papelbon's pitches high in the zone and Hamels' being nebulously tired/injured/behind-in-his-program.

But those are general observations on their styles (or health), which is really the only thing we can examine now. Realistically, we have no idea if they'll carry these approaches into the regular season either, but putting theory into practice is at least something we can try to qualify, even if not quantify.

[Phillibuster]

Giles on the bump. Staying in the zone pretty well, but possibly living dangerously. Lots of flat or nearly-flat pitches. Good speed probably why he's missing bats.

[MG]

Shutting out the Phils in ST:

'All too easy.'

[Meyer]

Good to see the Phillies getting to Hursh.

[Cyclic]

Stop getting hits, Mayberry.

[Putin]

This is sad. There will be no interest in annexing this team by me.

[PLM]

Ive noticed theres seems to be a general dislike of Nieves. In the same vein of Humberto Q last year. I just dont seem to understand why. One is a backup catcher and one was a 3rd stringer. Humberto fulfilled his role as a 3rd catcher when he was here. I also believe Nieves should be a capable backup catcher. What gives/

[LorecorE]

PLM: Because he is terrible? What other reason do we need?

He is the same/worse than a crop of catchers who all got minor league deals while he got $1.2M guaranteed. He's also 37, so he has basically 0 chance for improvement/upside and is a big risk to even stay healthy enough to backup anyway.

Guys like John Buck got less than he did. Even flameouts like Taylor Teagarden have a better chance of being a contributor than Nieves does.

[Will Schweitzer]

If the Yankees are willing to pick up a chunk of the money, Ruf or Mayberry for Ichiro wouldn't be as bad as everyone's making it out to be.

Ichiro would at least be the 4th best OF for the Phillies, and considering Revere's poor arm, an argument could be made that Ichiro would be in the top three.

All snark aside, I don't see a downside. They're obviously not going to utilize Ruf, so they might as well get something of value for him.

[Willard Preacher]

It's been made patently clear to me that I am to draw nothing from the Spring thus far, so I suppose it's irrational to have even the slightest bit of optimism regarding Chooch's bat. Too bad, because it's rare where I find much to be optimistic about with regards to this current iteration of the Phillies.

[Phillibuster]

WP: Actually, pretty sure the argument has been that spring stats should be ignored. Especially from the first 10 games.

I've liked Chooch's approach in the PAs I've seen, but I haven't seen that many of 'em. He was relatively patient, and his swing looked pretty easy - not much whip action or defensive swings.

[MG]

Nieves is a stiff and the Phils will begin Opening Day with two better catchers at Lehigh (Marson and Rupp).

[MG]

Quintero is better than Nieves too.

[denny b.]

Yes, these games don't matter and the stats don't matter and blah, blah, blah...

But this team has looked terrible for the better part of 2 weeks. In every area.

Manship makes the roster over Rick Camp too.

[Juums]

On the subject of what Spring Training games mean, I'll just add this: We just saw Reid Brignac pinch run for Ryan Howard, stay in at 1B, and then actually get a PA.

That is a thing that actually happened. I'm fairly certain up is also now down, left is now right, and water is no longer wet.

[Phillibuster]

Human sacrifice! Dogs and cats living together! Mass hysteria!

[aksmith]

Can't take away much from these games really. But what bothers me is the really obvious things that should not happen. During that last at bat, Howard swung through a straight as a string fastball right down the middle of the plate, from a righty, ahead in the count. Of course, it's Spring. But if we see that happening in the last few Spring games, alarm bells should be sounding, even in that wasteland of a head belonging to Amaro.

[bay_area_phan]

"Manship makes the roster over Rick Camp too."

I think Gelb is going on the assumption that we won't need a 5th starter until the 2nd time through the rotation. If that's true, it would make more sense to let that would-be 5th starter go make a start at AAA, while an 8th reliever or 6th bench player takes his roster spot.

[PLM]

Interestingly Buck and Quintero will be team mates according to Wiki...Buck would of probably been a better..

[Reality]

I love sucking cock.

[Michael Martinez]

Spring training stats are meaningful.

[MG]

Beatings to continue until morale improves!

[Delaware Avenue]

I love sucking cock.

Posted by: Reality | Monday, March 10, 2014 at 05:50 PM

-----------------

I just love the plethora of meaningful and insightful comments coming from this particular poster...

[CS]

What would the point of a trade of JMJ for Ichiro be? The yankees want an infielder for depth or a bullpen arm.

Ichiro w/the phillies paying 2mil or less
for
Stutues, Galvis, etc type players

Is what we are taking about