Roberto Hernandez's spring got off to a rocky start in the opener against the Blue Jays, when he allowed two runs on four hits over two innings, gave up a mammoth homer to Jose Bautista and was nearly taken deep twice more. But he rebounded for the Phillies Monday against his former team.
Hernandez struck out three Tampa Bay Rays and allowed just one hit over three scoreless innings.
Jeff Manship followed with two spotless frames of his own, and Phillippe Aumont pitched a 1-2-3 sixth inning.
Michael Stutes fell apart in the seventh, though, allowing five runs and five baserunners to take the loss.
The Phils lost a pair of infielders in the game -- Freddy Galvis and Ronny Cedeno, who started the game at shortstop, both left the game for what the team called "precautionary reasons." Galvis twisted his ankle sliding, but told reporters after the game that he's OK. With Galvis, Cedeno, Cesar Hernandez, Reid Brignac, Kevin Frandsen and Andres Blanco, the Phillies have plenty of middle infield depth behind Jimmy Rollins and Chase Utley.
It was another dismal day for the Phils' offense. They are now 1-5 in Grapefruit League play and are hitting .196, worst among all 30 teams. Maikel Franco was a lone bright spot, going 2-for-4 with a sharp line drive single back up the middle.
Next up for the Phils is a 6:35 p.m. game Tuesday against the Blue Jays on TCN. Cliff Lee will start and pitch three innings. Scheduled to pitch after him are B.J. Rosenberg, Luis Garcia, Cesar Jimenez and Shawn Camp.
If they don't play well in Spring Training, I'm really worried about the regular season, guys
Posted by: Cyclic | Monday, March 03, 2014 at 05:31 PM
I mean the offense.
Posted by: Cyclic | Monday, March 03, 2014 at 05:34 PM
Aumont did hit a guy but it worked out as the next fellow hit into a DP.
Posted by: Meyer | Monday, March 03, 2014 at 05:35 PM
[insert obligatory Shawn Camp/Shawn Kemp joke]
Posted by: Willard Preacher | Monday, March 03, 2014 at 05:53 PM
Maybe Lee will pitch 7 innings tomorrow night.
Posted by: Meyer | Monday, March 03, 2014 at 05:57 PM
This year's Aaron Cook/Chan Ho Park: Jeff Manship.
Posted by: bay_area_phan | Monday, March 03, 2014 at 06:01 PM
At the risk of being inundated with "clout day" references, and "glorified practice/lack-of-importance of Spring Training" rebuttals, I'll loosely throw out there that the injury proclivity, and general lackluster offense in relation to the rest of the league, is a bit concerning thus far. By no means do I expect it to continue, but for a team who really is hanging any and all chances of relevancy on all things falling just right, I'd prefer to see some spark of even a few things going right.
Posted by: Willard Preacher | Monday, March 03, 2014 at 06:12 PM
I'm no more discouraged by them playing poorly through 6 games than I would be encouraged if they'd been playing well. It's just spring training. Let's see how the season goes.
Still rooting for Ruf to do well though, since for whatever reason, I'm pretty sure he's playing for a spot on the big league roster.
Posted by: Cyclic | Monday, March 03, 2014 at 06:30 PM
For instance, if they were 5-1 with a 20+ run differential, I wouldn't exactly be buying playoff tickets.
Posted by: Cyclic | Monday, March 03, 2014 at 06:31 PM
Did anyone see this story about Singleton and his drug problems. http://www.philly.com/philly/sports/phillies/20140303_ap_46c2dd6f8c9040d7b9462a184c6cb1da.html
Sorry if this is old news. I haven't been following the site like I used to. I hope he works things out and I wonder how much the Phillies knew about this when they traded him.
Posted by: gobaystars! | Monday, March 03, 2014 at 06:35 PM
Cyclic, fair enough - Perhaps better stated, what are the highlights of this, albeit very early, Spring Training? Howard's relative health, perhaps?
For a team that literally does need everything to break right, I'd prefer those breaks not come in the way of fastballs off a player's knuckles.
Posted by: Willard Preacher | Monday, March 03, 2014 at 06:52 PM
Care less about the first week of results. Mean nothing.
Only thing that has been worrisome so far is the pitching injuries/news especially around Martin & Pettibone.
Posted by: MG | Monday, March 03, 2014 at 06:56 PM
Just came across this in a Rotowire writeup about Franco:
"The Phillies believe he can stick at 3B, but they also had him take some reps at 1B late last season as they look to increase his versatility a bit."
**********************************
Or maybe they aren't quite as bullish on Howard in private as they are publicly...
Posted by: NEPP | Monday, March 03, 2014 at 07:12 PM
Did anyone see this story about Singleton and his drug problems. http://www.philly.com/philly/sports/phillies/20140303_ap_46c2dd6f8c9040d7b9462a184c6cb1da.html
Sorry if this is old news. I haven't been following the site like I used to. I hope he works things out and I wonder how much the Phillies knew about this when they traded him.
Posted by: gobaystars! | Monday, March 03, 2014 at 06:35 PM
"Marijuana?!? Marijuana is not a drug! I sucked dick for coke, now that's an addiction!!!"
Posted by: NEPP | Monday, March 03, 2014 at 07:23 PM
NEPP:
Isn't the consensus of pretty much everyone that, if Howard does suffer a setback, the first guy on the depth chart after him is Darin Ruf? Given Franco's age and lack of exposure to the high minors, it's odd to suspect he'd leap-frog Ruf is something happened to Howard.
Posted by: Juums | Monday, March 03, 2014 at 07:28 PM
Too early to be worried. Waiting to see how they look in the last week or so in Spring Training.
Posted by: Dragon | Monday, March 03, 2014 at 07:51 PM
"Too early to be worried."
Only if you're using spring training as your measuring stick. If you're using the last 2 full seasons as your measuring stick, then you should have been worried months ago.
Posted by: bay_area_phan | Monday, March 03, 2014 at 08:08 PM
And circle gets the square
Posted by: Cyclic | Monday, March 03, 2014 at 08:13 PM
BAP, precisely!
Hence, my "okay then, what positives have we seen" segue...
Put me down for "Ryan Howard is still upright" and "Darin Ruf hasn't yet had a 3 base error."
Posted by: Willard Preacher | Monday, March 03, 2014 at 08:20 PM
Abreu still has a good eye, which should translate to good ABs
Posted by: Cyclic | Monday, March 03, 2014 at 08:21 PM
Juums, I was thinking from a long term standpoint and Rube has already shown he doesn't think much of Ruf.
Posted by: NEPP | Monday, March 03, 2014 at 08:35 PM
http://philadelphia.phillies.mlb.com/news/article/phi/phillies-working-to-shape-versatile-bench?ymd=20140303&content_id=68624660
Yet more rambling about versatility from Amaro in this piece; see if you can count how many times he uses the word; he also makes it pretty plain that his disdain for Ruf is due to the fact that he's "limited to first base." Seriously, this is beyond parody.
Posted by: Allen Thornberg | Monday, March 03, 2014 at 08:45 PM
BAP and WP are correct. With this team, it's guilty until proven innocent. In other words, assume this team sucks unless given reason otherwise.
Posted by: Fatalotti | Monday, March 03, 2014 at 08:50 PM
"We like the fact we have some veteran guys," Amaro said. "Obviously Freddy's versatility, Cedeno's versatility and experience, Brignac's versatility and experience. Frandsen's got experience. His best asset is his bat off the bench. [Darin] Ruf is limited to first base, but he's going to be a good option if we have some breakdowns."
What? I don't even.... Okay, Ruf is starting in Lehigh Valley again. I need to accept that.
Posted by: Cyclic | Monday, March 03, 2014 at 08:54 PM
Like I said, if they had come out like gangbusters this spring, I wouldn't count that as "reason otherwise."
Posted by: Cyclic | Monday, March 03, 2014 at 08:55 PM
Nightmare - the Oakland Athletics (or some other talent-savvy team) somehow heists Darin Ruf for some shiny beads and trinkets. Given the opportunity to relax in a regular role - albeit 1st base or LF - Mr. Ruf clubs 38 HRs with a .350 OBP. Making pretty close to the league minimum.
The sooner the entire front office realizes they are miles over their heads in the proper management of a baseball team, the better. I hope I'm still alive when we see a shrewd Philadelphia Phillies front office.
Posted by: cut_fastball | Monday, March 03, 2014 at 08:59 PM
I read the Singleton article, amazing he was getting high like everyday.
And if his a$$ was a buster, 213 will regulate.
Posted by: WSJ | Monday, March 03, 2014 at 09:01 PM
From Salisbury today. No mention of Caesar?
Barring a health issue, infielder Freddy Galvis and backup catcher Wil Nieves are locks. That leaves Ruf, Mayberry, Kevin Frandsen and Bobby Abreu competing for three jobs. Non-roster outfielders Tony Gwynn Jr. and Clete Thomas and non-roster infielders Reid Brignac and Ronny Cedeno are also in the mix.
Posted by: WSJ | Monday, March 03, 2014 at 09:07 PM
Based on those comments by Rube, Ruf is not really in the running for a bench spot unless there's an injury to Howard... Okay then.
He should demand a trade to a club that will give him a shot.
Posted by: NEPP | Monday, March 03, 2014 at 09:27 PM
Insane. Just insane. You've got a 1st baseman who can't stay healthy and can't hit lefties, and you've got a young guy in the mix who plays 1st base and mashes lefties... but because he ONLY plays first base you're not going to keep him on the roster, much less platoon him? So frustrating.
Posted by: timr | Monday, March 03, 2014 at 09:58 PM
I dare anyone to make up a fake quote about Cedeno, Brignac, and any other scrub in camp that sounds more stupid than Amaro's actual real quote about them.
Posted by: LorecorE | Monday, March 03, 2014 at 10:21 PM
I wonder if Sandberg is on the same page as RA,jr on Ruf.
His comments the other day on valuing walks are opposite to his GM.
I hope his views on roster construction are as well, and that he has ability to convince the organization.
Versatility is only a phone call away and can be there the next day if needed for injury replacement.
A good PH bat on the bench is needed as a game-time replacement, not a day later call up.
Posted by: Bubba | Monday, March 03, 2014 at 10:26 PM
I don't think people here get how bad this team is. They have the same inept offense as last year but this year their starting pitching is in near disarray. Starting pitching is what has kept them from a complete collapse. Also their defense is worse just because an old team is another year older. They are going to lose 100 games.
Posted by: Jeffrey | Monday, March 03, 2014 at 10:51 PM
I kept my FREE RUF poster when I moved just for such a situation...
Posted by: Muuurgh | Monday, March 03, 2014 at 10:59 PM
Speaking of versatility, I just listened to the David Montgomery interview from this morning on WIP. He called Tom McCarthy versatile and compared him to Harry Kalas.
He also talked about the Wetzler saga and said they should have handled it better, perhaps by going to MLB first, and did not mean it to be directed at the two draftees.
http://philadelphia.cbslocal.com/audio/953-angelo-cataldi-morning-team/
Posted by: Dickie Thong | Monday, March 03, 2014 at 11:42 PM
Here at BL , we compare T-Mac to Harry Kalas all the time.
But T-Mac doesn't fare so well in the comparisons.
But then again , versatile has become a dirty word here as well.
Was Monty using BL secret code to slam T-Mac??
Posted by: Bubba | Tuesday, March 04, 2014 at 12:31 AM
So, Kevin Frandsen, who can't play a single position competently and has a .674 career OPS, is headed for a bench job because, "His best asset is his bat off the bench." And Darin Ruf, who has an .838 career OPS, is headed for AAA because he can only play 1 position competently. Can someone please explain to me how this logic makes any sense at all?
Posted by: bay_area_phan | Tuesday, March 04, 2014 at 12:44 AM
Was this made official BAP? Maybe he needs more practice in the OF?(joking) But I digress...Lets just say there isnt a place for him or what some BL conspiracy theorist suggest Rube doesnt care for him much. Wouldnt it be prudent to showcase him for a few games in the(the ML level) regular season to then trade him?
Posted by: PLM | Tuesday, March 04, 2014 at 01:16 AM
PLM: No, nothing's official or anything close to it. I'm just reading the tea leaves like everyone else.
Posted by: bay_area_phan | Tuesday, March 04, 2014 at 01:52 AM
Amaro is right about Ruf's defensive limitations. he should be on an AL roster. Still this goes back to Amaro's inabilty to remote assemble a competent bench. teams like the A's and Rays do it without nearly the sane resources and manage to generally assemble a semi-decent bench annually. The Phils' bench has been inept and poorly constructed from the get go the last 2 seasons from Opening Day and this year likely won't be any different.
Going to take the next GM nearly as long as it had taken Alderson to clean up Minaya's mess on the field at the MLB level and refill the nearly barren minor league cupboard.
Posted by: MG | Tuesday, March 04, 2014 at 05:36 AM
Time to trade Ruf was this offseason. Highly doubt he was much value but he likely could have gotten this team some starting pitching depth or a bullpen arm if Amaro wanted a piece that would help the MLB club this year.
Posted by: MG | Tuesday, March 04, 2014 at 05:39 AM
that's good news, MG. ruf is home grown. broke howard's reading HR record. and, imho, wouldn't embarass himself any more than burrell did in LF. trading ruf for "some dude" would be insulting to the fan base.
Posted by: bullit | Tuesday, March 04, 2014 at 06:20 AM
Oh ok BAP thought i missed something. I be honest havent been following the Phils much lately. Though i like Frandsden intensity i thought he was a bit redundant. I wouldnt play Ruf much in the OF his value is a PH and to spell Howard.
Posted by: PLM | Tuesday, March 04, 2014 at 06:44 AM
Looks like Ruf will be wearing the new Iron Pigs Bacon scratch and sniff t-Shirt in three weeks.
Posted by: Meyer | Tuesday, March 04, 2014 at 07:13 AM
i agree, PLM. i wouldn't play ruf in the OF unless necessitated by injury or giving brown a day off.
Posted by: bullit | Tuesday, March 04, 2014 at 07:19 AM
NL teams do not typically carry a backup 1B who cannot play OF. Those harping on Ruf's prospects on this team continually ignore this. And, no, he's not as good in LF as Ibanez or Burrell. He's not as good a hitter, either. I like the guy but, I don't get how he's such a cause among some.
Posted by: Hugh Mulcahy | Tuesday, March 04, 2014 at 07:37 AM
Hm- because he's arguably the best rh power bat on the team. Who else have you got? Byrd? And please don't offend me by suggesting Ruiz.
Posted by: Jackamac | Tuesday, March 04, 2014 at 08:10 AM
BAP and Fatalotti having their panties in a bunch over spring training is par for their course people.
Posted by: Reality | Tuesday, March 04, 2014 at 08:10 AM
***And Darin Ruf, who has an .838 career OPS, is headed for AAA because he can only play 1 position competently. Can someone please explain to me how this logic makes any sense at all?***
Versatility™
Posted by: NEPP | Tuesday, March 04, 2014 at 08:22 AM
***NL teams do not typically carry a backup 1B who cannot play OF.***
You know, elite defensive outfielders like Matt Stairs (carried nearly solely as a PH bat for the 2nd half of 2008 and all of 2009. Or the ever versatile Jim Thome...
The Phillies recent history shows that they could carry a guy of Ruf's skillset if they chose to do so...
Posted by: NEPP | Tuesday, March 04, 2014 at 08:30 AM
Amaro is strangely forgiving of Howard's lack of versatility™: can only play 1B, can only hit RHP (when the shift isn't on), frequently injured, can't draw walks. Man, that stretch of 2005 - 2009 sure has bought this guy a lot of good will and charity.
I'd call him one-dimensional, but I feel like that would be an insult to the men who actually have one dimension to their game.
Posted by: Will Schweitzer | Tuesday, March 04, 2014 at 08:57 AM
Ah, but you see, Will, Howard MUST be a good player--Ruben Amaro, Certified Genius, is paying him 25 million a year isn't he? I get the definite impression that one of the reasons Rube sticks his fingers in his ears and screams NANANANANANANA every time Ruf's name is mentioned is because he's afraid that if he admits Ruf is a good player, someone will say he's stupid for paying so much more for Howard, a guy with a very similar skillset.
Posted by: Allen Thornberg | Tuesday, March 04, 2014 at 09:09 AM
Or maybe- and this may be worse- he thinks Howard is able to rebound.
I know- people's minds were just blown.
Posted by: Reality | Tuesday, March 04, 2014 at 09:15 AM
Addict? Marijuana? Whatever. Stuff should be legal already and if it was he would just be a guy who enjoys to relax after a days work with some MJ, with no harm done to him or anybody else. Well maybe some inhaling-smoke related stuff down the line, but not sure how much worse that is than the average persons diet on their health.
Posted by: johnnysanz3 | Tuesday, March 04, 2014 at 09:17 AM
Howard is also one-dimensional but the Phils are stuck to the tune of $25M annually through '16 for him.
Zolecki was on WIP and had a few interesting things to say:
- Howard clearly has a chip on his shoulder and has become short with reporters constantly asking him about his health & his ability to hit LHP.
Refused to answer any questions about it after he hit the opposite field HR last week and since then.
- Unless someone gets hurt, Zolecki doesn't see Ruf opening the season with the MLB club. Didn't put it in some many words either but he thinks JMJ stinks.
- Zolecki was laughing about McClure's statement yesterday about MAG 'perhaps he just isn't a practice player' comment when asked about MAG's performance the other day.
Also wondered how bad MAG's bullpen sessions were after Sandberg and Amaro came out and said that MAG's appearance was by far the best stuff they have seen from him so far.
Still wonders how MAG was originally slated for a potential $48M contract and wonders if MAG can contribute at the MLB level.
- Added that there is still a lot of uncertainty in the bullpen after Bastardo & Papelbon and that no one has really distinguished themselves in camp so far.
Posted by: MG | Tuesday, March 04, 2014 at 09:20 AM
Here's a fun game to play: Which late 90s Phillies team will this year resemble?
1996: 67-95
1997: 68-94
1998: 75-87
1999: 77-85
Me? I don't think this team wins 70 games. They're legitimately bad.
Posted by: Jack | Tuesday, March 04, 2014 at 09:24 AM
Good article on ADHD in baseball and that MLB doesn't have an Adderall problem right now and that MLB has potentially become overly strict on their policy regarding players taking it.
Basically about ~10% of MLB players have an Adderall exception but that the numbers in the adult population are 4-5% and potentially unreported/undiagnosed.
http://www.businessweek.com/articles/2014-03-03/no-baseball-doesnt-have-a-fake-adhd-epidemic?campaign_id=DN030314#p1
Posted by: MG | Tuesday, March 04, 2014 at 09:26 AM
Jack - Front-line talent is good enough to push for .500 if they are healthy. Yeah it will only take 1-2 injuries though for this paper mache roster to fall apart though.
Posted by: MG | Tuesday, March 04, 2014 at 09:28 AM
I think they will finally rip the band-aid off and make some trades at the deadline.
Of course, they should have done it a year ago, but because they deluded themselves into thinking they were "still in win-now mode," all they did was delay how long it will take to actually build a winning team.
And by the way, this has nothing to do with the "all prospects" route that Clout will accuse me of advocating. This has everything to do with simply moving on from a failed roster that is getting worse and worse as they get older and older and hasn't shown they're a good team in two and a half years.
Sometimes you have to move on and start building the next team. The longer the Phillies wait, the longer it will be until they win.
Posted by: Jack | Tuesday, March 04, 2014 at 09:33 AM
Jack is negative on the Phillies? Shocking, I know. Stop the presses.
Here is a fun game to play:
Find one positive thing Jack has said in his time here on the blog. Stuff about the Braves doesn't count.
Posted by: Reality | Tuesday, March 04, 2014 at 09:42 AM
Jack: I'll take the over 70.
Posted by: LorecorE | Tuesday, March 04, 2014 at 09:46 AM
Is Reality actually The Truth Injection?
Posted by: Cyclic | Tuesday, March 04, 2014 at 09:55 AM
If everything goes right, we could win 85-87 games...if everything goes wrong, we could flirt with 100 losses. If I were a betting man, I'd probably say around 78-80 wins.
Posted by: NEPP | Tuesday, March 04, 2014 at 10:02 AM
If howard hits 35 HRS
If Utley plays 150 games
If Rollins stays out of the leadoff spot and is still a top 5 defensive SS
If Asche plays replacement level (both sides of the ball)
If Byrd repeats 2013
If Brown repeats 2013
If Revere has a OBP of like .375
If Chooch returns to 2012 form
If Hamels, Lee, and Burnett repeat 2013
If Papelbon doesn't suck
I could see 87 wins out of that team...
Posted by: Nonamephame (Founder of the Cody Asche fan club, no scout-lovers allowed) | Tuesday, March 04, 2014 at 10:10 AM
Optimist Prime!
Posted by: Cyclic | Tuesday, March 04, 2014 at 10:10 AM
***Still wonders how MAG was originally slated for a potential $48M contract and wonders if MAG can contribute at the MLB level. ***
Here's a crazy thought...maybe Rube & Co were actually smart to blow everyone out of the water with a massive offer, get him over the barrel and then pull back once the physical results were in showing the shoulder concerns (or whatever it is with his arm). At that point, much like the RedSox negotiating with Napoli last year, it was a 1 on 1 where they could lowball him and threaten to disclose the medical concerns to everyone else along the lines of how the Orioles tried to screw Balfour. It seemingly worked and they got a low-risk, high reward guy for the price of an average middle reliever. Also, as far as I can tell, they control him for 6 full years regardless of that 3 year deal as he doesnt apparently have any sort of out clause like Aoki had the Brewers put in his deal.
Even if he spends all this year in AAA (not likely), its still not a bad signing.
Posted by: NEPP | Tuesday, March 04, 2014 at 10:11 AM
"NL teams do not typically carry a backup 1B who cannot play OF."
Well, our own GM gave a guaranteed contract to a career .674 OPS hitter because he likes his bat off the bench. And Frandsen plays every defensive position about as badly as Ruf plays LF. You see no inconsistency there?
Posted by: bay_area_phan | Tuesday, March 04, 2014 at 10:12 AM
Frandsen is actually a pretty solid 2B defensively. Granted, we dont need a backup 2B and we already have better options for that on the roster in Galvis and Cesar (who will sit in AAA).
Posted by: NEPP | Tuesday, March 04, 2014 at 10:14 AM
"Is Reality actually The Truth Injection?"
No. Phlipper is the one with the history of name changes and passive-aggressive trolling behavior. He stayed off Beerleaguer for awhile and came back angrier than before, but it is unmistakably Phlipper.
Posted by: bay_area_phan | Tuesday, March 04, 2014 at 10:20 AM
I'd rather have a versatile hitter than a versatile fielder.
Posted by: norbertods | Tuesday, March 04, 2014 at 10:26 AM
"NL teams do not typically carry a backup 1B who cannot play OF"
How many teams have a starting first baseman like Howard (huge splits, bad injury history) just crying out for a platoon? How many have a history of happily starting atrocious outfielders like Delmon Young and late-era Pat Burrell? Ruf isn't worse in the OF than those guys, and there's a clear need on this team for a backup first baseman/ RH power off the bench. In this situation, I wager MOST teams would be thrilled to have a guy like Ruf basically just appear out of nowhere.
Just not this team.
Posted by: timr | Tuesday, March 04, 2014 at 10:28 AM
Has the hairdresser pitched yet this spring? How did he look?
Posted by: Cyclic | Tuesday, March 04, 2014 at 10:29 AM
Hugh: The other thing that you're leaving out of your analysis is that this backup 1st baseman is right-handed and we have a starting 1st baseman whose OPS against LHP the last 3 years has been .539, .604, and .634. If you send Ruf to AAA, what you're saying is that Howard is going to start against LHP and, when he doesn't, the pathetic John Mayberry is going to be the one taking his place.
Posted by: bay_area_phan | Tuesday, March 04, 2014 at 10:34 AM
I still don't understand the fawning adoration that Ruf seems to engender around here.
But I guess haters gonna hate. By which I mean me.
Posted by: Phillibuster | Tuesday, March 04, 2014 at 10:35 AM
Same old story, guys. Over the last 2 years, corner OF defense has cost the Phillies at least about 237 winnable games. Whereas the offense has consistently been excellent, scoring more than enough to win most games. If only that OF defense wasn't such an Achilles heel.
Posted by: Cyclic | Tuesday, March 04, 2014 at 10:37 AM
'buster (and other Ruf "haters")-- Who are the 3 better bench options for the 2014 Phillies? (assuming Galvis and Nieves as givens)
Try to answer without sounding like Amaro.
Posted by: Cyclic | Tuesday, March 04, 2014 at 10:40 AM
"Who are the 3 better bench options for the 2014 Phillies? (assuming Galvis and Nieves as givens)
Try to answer without sounding like Amaro."
That's like trying to name the 9 planets without using any words that start with "M." It's impossible.
Posted by: bay_area_phan | Tuesday, March 04, 2014 at 10:44 AM
Cyclic: I don't hate Ruf at all. As I've previously indicated, I'm more bullish on his 2014 prospects than Oliver (.717 OPS) or Steamer (.724 OPS). I just think that some people here have unrealistically optimistic expectations for what he'll provide.
As for "not sounding like Amaro," how about what I've said dozens of times before?
It's a lot easier to carry Matt Stairs when your entire roster is in its mid-to-late-20s and has no significant injury history. When you have to factor in for likely regular time off at at least 3 positions (not including catcher), the ability to regularly play the field becomes much more pertinent.
And incidentally, I don't concur with the assertion earlier that Ruf is better in the outfield than Burrell or Ibanez in the outfield. When factoring in all of their deficiencies and advantages, I think he's possibly better than Delmon Young, but likely not too much, and he would/will have to prove it.
Posted by: Phillibuster | Tuesday, March 04, 2014 at 10:51 AM
Considering Ruf had a better OPS last year than Howard...maybe he could at least get a bench spot as this team desperately needs offense.
Posted by: NEPP | Tuesday, March 04, 2014 at 10:51 AM
If you go deeper, Ruf's effort in a half season last year was nearly equal to Howard's overall OPS for the past 4 season. Howard just edges him out with a .816 OPS to Ruf's .806 OPS
Posted by: NEPP | Tuesday, March 04, 2014 at 10:53 AM
***When you have to factor in for likely regular time off at at least 3 positions (not including catcher), the ability to regularly play the field becomes much more pertinent.***
Remember that when Bobby Abreu makes the roster.
Posted by: NEPP | Tuesday, March 04, 2014 at 10:53 AM
ZiPS is also, apparently, more of a hater than I, since they project a .732 OPS.
Posted by: Phillibuster | Tuesday, March 04, 2014 at 10:55 AM
What is the "front-line talent" the Phillies have?
Hamels, Lee, Burnett, Utley? Anyone else?
Posted by: Jack | Tuesday, March 04, 2014 at 10:57 AM
Oliver has Howard at a flashy .727 OPS, ZiPS has him at a .763 OPS and Steamer at a .753 OPS.
They're not exactly bullish on an oft-injured aging 1B with a bad achilles either for some reason.
Posted by: NEPP | Tuesday, March 04, 2014 at 10:57 AM
NEPP: I've said before I wasn't a big fan of the Abreu signing, and I haven't had a change of heart on that.
However, I'll bet you Abreu still plays corner outfield at least as well as Ruf (which I believe to be a low bar, obviously). He's also likely to have at least an equivalent OBP, whether as position player or PH.
Posted by: Phillibuster | Tuesday, March 04, 2014 at 10:57 AM
***He's also likely to have at least an equivalent OBP, whether as position player or PH***
And he's just as likely to have a SLG% around .350 too...at best.
Posted by: NEPP | Tuesday, March 04, 2014 at 10:59 AM
"When you have to factor in for likely regular time off at at least 3 positions (not including catcher), the ability to regularly play the field becomes much more pertinent."
Basically straight from Amaro's lips.
You'd rather have light hitting Versatility™ on the bench than the possibility of genuine offense?
Tell me again, how many games has the inability to play competent corner OF defense cost the Phillies over the last 2 years? Okay, and how many games has inept offense cost the team over that same period?
I've never said he's better in the field than Burrell or Ibanez. But why does he have to be? I'm not advocating for him so he can improve the defense. I'm advocating for him because I believe he's the best option to help the offense (which needs a lot more help than the defense).
Posted by: Cyclic | Tuesday, March 04, 2014 at 11:00 AM
NEPP: And yet they're still higher on him than Ruf.
And again, I don't understand why the first "fall-back" on the discussion about Ruf is to talk about Howard. The fact that Howard is the starter at 1B and probably won't be removed from that role barring injury (or "injury") is a priori knowledge for this whole conversation.
If Howard stinks royally, or gets injured (or "injured"), then Ruf can easily be called up from AAA to take the spot. Whether he is or not is another story, and has nothing to do with realistic expectations for what Ruf could provide.
Posted by: Phillibuster | Tuesday, March 04, 2014 at 11:01 AM
Defensive limitations:
Ruf can't play LF yet the Phils apparently have no issue with Brown who is still a piss-poor defensive OF and the strong likelihood of Delmon Young-redux in RF if Abreu is forced to play there often.
That to me is the puzzling part.
Posted by: MG | Tuesday, March 04, 2014 at 11:01 AM
Cyclic - Those comments are baffling and part of the larger issue with Amaro's efforts to assemble a Bottom 5 bench the last 2 years in MLB as rated by fWAR.
This year likely won't be much different either.
Posted by: MG | Tuesday, March 04, 2014 at 11:03 AM
***And again, I don't understand why the first "fall-back" on the discussion about Ruf is to talk about Howard. The fact that Howard is the starter at 1B and probably won't be removed from that role barring injury (or "injury") is a priori knowledge for this whole conversation.***
Or they could platoon the RH bat with the LH bat who simply cannot hit LHP at all and should pretty much never see LHP ever.
Posted by: NEPP | Tuesday, March 04, 2014 at 11:05 AM
Cyclic: There's a difference between being able to play 5 positions and being able to play 1 that's more difficult to field than first base.
Do I think I'd rather have Cedeno on the bench than Ruf? No. Do I think that drastically more situations will arise when it's important to have someone who can play 2nd, or SS, or RF (not to be confused with someone who can play 2nd and SS and RF) than a pinch hitter? Yes.
Posted by: Phillibuster | Tuesday, March 04, 2014 at 11:08 AM
I look forward to seeing switch-hitter Freddy Galvis getting multiple PH opportunities while Ruf plays in AAA. It wont be as bad as when UC would throw switchhitter Michael Martinez out there to PH but it will still be "fun" to watch.
Sadly, playing Galvis and his career .713 OPS against LHP at 1B over Howard against LHPs is still a better move than letting Howard start against them.
Posted by: NEPP | Tuesday, March 04, 2014 at 11:08 AM
"The fact that Howard is the starter at 1B and probably won't be removed from that role barring injury (or "injury") is a priori knowledge for this whole conversation."
If you view it as a non-negotiable point that Ryan Howard must be the full-time starting 1st baseman (regardless the handedness of the opposing pitcher), then your entire argument starts from a false premise.
Posted by: bay_area_phan | Tuesday, March 04, 2014 at 11:13 AM
NEPP: I've got no problem with a platoon, but it's difficult to carry a no-glove bat on any NL team, let alone one who likely needs regular fill-ins at positions other than first.
If the schedule works out such that we have a bunch of games in AL stadiums interspersed with some series where we face more LHSP than RHSP, then that'd be an awesome time to have Ruf on the bench at the expense of someone who can play one of the other positions that may need fill-ins.
However, the odds of that are low. Not least because between 70% and 75% of all SPs are right-handed, which Howard is likely to hit better than Ruf.
Posted by: Phillibuster | Tuesday, March 04, 2014 at 11:14 AM
"When you have to factor in for likely regular time off at at least 3 positions (not including catcher), the ability to regularly play the field becomes much more pertinent."
Is 1B not one of the three positions that will require time off? B/c Ruf has the ability to regularly play the field there.
If they carried Ruf and even just gave him 1 start/wk at 1B by cherry-picking against a LHP, plus PH duties the other games, it would vastly improve the Production of the offense. Also would give Howard the regular breather he needs to try to stay healthy.
Posted by: nokwurst | Tuesday, March 04, 2014 at 11:14 AM
***vNot least because between 70% and 75% of all SPs are right-handed, which Howard is likely to hit better than Ruf***
Good point about SPs...and thankfully this is the 1930s so all those SP will typically go 8-9 innings and those teams dont have bullpens full of Lefty specialists who will completely neuter our 1B.
Posted by: NEPP | Tuesday, March 04, 2014 at 11:17 AM
"Do I think that drastically more situations will arise when it's important to have someone who can play 2nd, or SS, or RF (not to be confused with someone who can play 2nd and SS and RF) than a pinch hitter?"
Really? I'll put my money on the pinch hitter and I'll give you 100 to 1 odds. I'd say there were 50 to 100 games last year where the Phillies had to send up some sh*tty pinch hitter in a critical situation because that was all they had on their bench. I remember very few games in which they needed a SECOND backup to play 2nd, SS, RF, or anywhere else. Remember, we already have someone who can play all over the field: Freddy Galvis. The issue is whether it's more important to have a 2nd guy who can do that (i.e., Frandsen, Cedeno, Brignac) than it is to have a guy who can pinch-hit.
Posted by: bay_area_phan | Tuesday, March 04, 2014 at 11:18 AM
"If they carried Ruf and even just gave him 1 start/wk at 1B by cherry-picking against a LHP, plus PH duties the other games, it would vastly improve the Production of the offense. Also would give Howard the regular breather he needs to try to stay healthy."
Exactly!
Posted by: timr | Tuesday, March 04, 2014 at 11:19 AM
BAP: I don't view it as non-negotiable at all. I just pointed out I have no problem with a platoon.
However, Howard can't play 2 positions unless you count DH. Ruf can't play 2 positions unless you count DH. It's really, really hard to make that much roster flexibility for maybe 25% of all 1B PAs (plus maybe 30 PH PAs).
Prediction: The Phillies will face more than twice as many RHSP as LHSP.
Posted by: Phillibuster | Tuesday, March 04, 2014 at 11:19 AM