Maybe Jonathan Papelbon was right about velocity

Remember the fastball flung from the hand of Jonathan Papelbon that was causing so much distress — the fastball that’s being thrown at a diminished 92.7 mph and has raised questions regarding the closer’s ability to finish games?

Well, that fastball, lacking its past velocity, is doing just fine.

This season, opponents are hitting a meager .154 against Papelbon’s heater, and it’s been the punctuation on seven of his eight strikeouts.

Since his collapse in Texas, Papelbon has tossed eight scoreless innings, allowing just three hits and converting all six of his save opportunities.

The 33-year-old is hitting spots, mixing and matching and still throwing the fastball with confidence in all counts.

Maybe he was right all along.

"Why do you guys care about velo so much, man?" Papelbon said to reporters after saving the Phillies’ 1-0 win on April 17. "Is that -- does that matter? You think that matters? I don’t understand that. I mean, if a ball has life at the plate and you are throwing 88 miles an hour as opposed to 98 miles an hour, it doesn’t make one damn bit of difference. Whether you throw 93 or 94 or 84. I just, I don’t get it, man."

In fact, Papelbon does get it. And so far, he’s been right.

Comments

[Iceman]

MG should be all over this.

[MG]

Utter nonsense and sabermetrics has proven a clear relationship between a dip in fastball velocity, a decrease in K/9, and an increase in ERA/xFIP.

Papelbon has seen a huge decrease in his K/9 since '12 and a notable increase in his BB/9 so far this year. Also hasn't given up a HR yet on a FB and that will change too.

[Willard Preacher]

What was the least surprising thing you read all day? For me, it was this:

Jim Salisbury ‏@JSalisburyCSN 20m

Tyson Gillies suspended 3 games at Lehigh Valley for undisclosed infraction.

[Cyclic]

However, my 36 years on this earth have conditioned me to prepare for 1-2 or 0-3, all starting with a 10-2 thrashing tonight.

Happy Friday!

Posted by: Willard Preacher

~~~

Totally agree, WP. But go Phillies!

[GBrettfan]

I'm all for Papelbon proving all season long that velocity doesn't matter.

[Willard Preacher]

As a general rule, Paps is right, "velo" (I punched myself in the d8ck 13 times for even typing that) doesn't matter. Just ask Trevor Hoffman.

But, Paps has established himself to this point in his career as a "power pitcher," as have the vast majority of other closers. It's less about the current velocity than it is that the drop is typically an indication of something else. So, the "velo" loss isn't the root cause in and of itself, so much as a symptom of some other issue. And because Paps has never really been known as a "control pitcher" learning that aspect on the fly isn't a great recipe for a closer's success. So far, so good, but not sure how sustainable it is. Here's hoping.

I am intrigued that Mr. Hamels was already exceeding this level of velocity in his first start of the season! The Dodger Stadium gun had him at 93 a good bit of the night.

[Cyclic]

Well. If the rules of the Beerleaguer jinx are still in effect, that means Papelbon will blow at least one save this weekend.

[bay_area_phan]

"I don’t understand that. I mean, if a ball has life at the plate and you are throwing 88 miles an hour as opposed to 98 miles an hour, it doesn’t make one damn bit of difference. Whether you throw 93 or 94 or 84."

I do tend to think velocity is a bit overrated, but there is a hell of a lot of difference between 98 and 88. For that matter, for a guy whose fastball is his bread and butter, there is a huge difference between the 91-92 that he has been throwing of late, and the 87-88 that he was throwing last September. Maybe a guy who has pinpoint command and/or fabulous secondary pitches can get away with throwing 88 MPH, but Jonathan Papelbon cannot. At 91-92, on the other hand, he should be perfectly fine -- and has been.

[MG]

Gillies has repeatedly had problems each season but he proved what a scumbag he was when he tried to verbally berated and threatened the bus driver in Reading '12 which drew a lengthy team suspension.

[Bonehead]

You guys are going to hurt yourselves if you try to get inside Pap's head and break down his comments.

[NEPP]

Tyson Gillies suspended 3 games at Lehigh Valley for undisclosed infraction.
**************

What a shock.

[Meyer]

Gillies struck out 4 times leading off last evening. I'll guess it was a performance related infraction.

[bay_area_phan]

I could understand why a team might put up with these kinds of repeated off-field incidents if we were talking about someone who was even a halfway decent player. But how Tyson Gillies has still managed not to get cut is beyond me.

[NEPP]

From the last thread, I see no issue with a QS being 7 IP/3 ER. The stat should mean something and going 6 and giving up 3 or less is pretty "meh" as far as I'm concerned...especially these days.

[NEPP]

One thing that is probably helping Papelbon is this:

Slider velocity:

2013: 75.9 mph (11.1% usage)
2014: 80.7 mph (9.7S% usage)

He's tightened up his slider considerably and its much more of a true slider this year whereas last year it was very slurvy and he was hanging it quite a bit. And, as a result, his slider is once again a plus pitch whereas last year it was getting hammered:

wSL
2013: -0.5 runs
2014: 0.2 runs

FWIW, his overall FB velocity is actually down 0.5 mph from last year...though it is up from where he was at last Sept.

[bay_area_phan]

"The stat should mean something and going 6 and giving up 3 or less is pretty "meh" as far as I'm concerned...especially these days."

My only problem with the stat is in the nomenclature. 6 and 3 is more like an "Acceptable Start" than a quality one. Otherwise, I think of the stat as kind of like the lodging approval ratings that AAA gives out. They don't give you any way of knowing if a particular hotel is really nice or merely a clean, decent place to stay. But they at least give you some degree of assurance that you won't have cockroaches crawling in your bed.

[Jonathan Papelbon]

Velo don't mean nothing', man. Just look at some of the turds in our bullpen. They got plenty of velo.

[BobbyD]

Papelbon could convert his next 30 save opportunities, and people would still rip him the first time he screws up.

[PLM]

I think its a little premature for this article. Would like to have seen a few more appearances to see if this holds true. I do think velocity is slightly overacted a 1 MPH drop is probably not a huge deal. This is assuming the movement and command arent affected. Now of course when a guy was throwing 93 then has a 4 MPH its a possible indication of another more major problem.

[PLM]

4 MPH drop i meant...

[DUCK Dynasty tm..]

I hopes you not referring to our #1 fan Papelbon.

[BobbyD]

Dodgers Stadium report:

It's an amazing setting like everyone says. But the fan experience is probably better at CBP. Tailgating is strictly prohibited at Dodger Stadium. There are a few dive bars about a mile away. Nothing outside. No Ashburn Alley type thing obviously. And of course the wave and beach balls. Fans arrive late and leave early because of traffic, not the la la land thing.

[Bonehead]

BobbyD, I would be curious of what you think of my humble observations:

Boy, I'm glad I'm not a Dodgers fan.

- Many of the players seem unlikable to me.
- Many of the players seem not to respect the game - lack of hustle, poor fundamentals, take plays/games off (Even Magic endorsed that NBA-style practice when, last season, the team all stayed out all night in Miami, and were unfit to play the next game.)
- Poor defensively, which looks bad aesthetically.
- Traffic sucks
- Stadium sound system is annoying
- The fans seem stupid. Every time a ball is hit in the air, a roar goes up like they think it is a home run. Then there's beachballs and waves.

[Will Schweitzer]

This may be the end of Tyson's Phillies career. He doesn't bring enough to the table to put up with his attitude, and he's been given multiple chances to straighten up his act.

Every inning he plays from this point forward is just stealing from someone who's more deserving of the time to develop.

[NEPP]

Another note on the QS stat...Nolan Ryan has proposed calling a 7 IP/3 ER start a "High Quality Start" and to track those as well.

I like it.

[Bonehead]

Watching the Flyers game makes me pine for the intensity of playoff baseball.
So do I hope against hope that this team puts everything together and makes a postseason run? Or should I bite the bullet, and hope for a freefall, followed by a new, competent FO regime?

[BobbyD]

Bonehead: Nothing jumped out at me regarding the Dodgers overall style of play and attitude. But funny cause I did notice how the fans think every fly ball is a homer. And I was along the 3rd base line halfway up some it was easy to tell. The fans get up and down and talk a lot. The sound system is interesting because that big rack of speakers in centerfield is the extent of it. Nothing near the seats. So they have to blast it. Some might be surprised to know that the section I was in was like 90% Mexicans. But not like they just crossed the border yesterday. Mexican the way a lot of us are German or Irish, etc.

[NEPP]

Side note on that, one of the things that threw me at first when I moved to Seattle from Philly was that the major minority there was Asian (whether Korean, Chinese or Japanese, etc) Coming from Philly where its basically African-Americans and then Latinos, it was a bit of a oddity to me at first. I'd imagine southern California is the same way with Latinos/Hispanics.

[Mark in Delaware]

"Another note on the QS stat...Nolan Ryan has proposed calling a 7 IP/3 ER start a "High Quality Start" and to track those as well.

I like it."

I like it too. This 6 IP, 3 ER = a quality start is bull crud. That's a 4.50 ERA. Not quality at all!

[bittel]

How bad did Vance Worley have to be in order to be judged inadequate to help the Twins' rotation?

[BobbyD]

Talent evaluators can evaluate a quality start anyway they want can't they? It doesn't need to be some official stat. The dumbest thing about the 6/3 qualification is that it doesn't even follow through to 8/4 or even 9/4.

[Mark in Delaware]

The quality start was surely a stat designed by agents so as to get their clients mucho dinero.

[bay_area_phan]

If Arizona continues to stink it up, and the Phillies can somehow stay at least on the fringe of contention, Martin Prado is a guy who would be an excellent midseason addition. You would think RAJ would love the guy because he's versatile. Except that, unlike all these other versatile guys whom RAJ signs, Prado can actually hit enough to improve the team at whatever position he plays, rather than making it worse.

[NEPP]

Fausto once again on pace to maybe go 5 innings.

[bay_area_phan]

That strike 3 to Byrd was like a foot outside.

[If the Schu fits]

Bobby Abreu came this close to hitting a game-tying pinch hit in the 9th inning for the Mutts.

[Five-4-One]

Collmenter looks like the guy that services the vending machines at my office.

[Five-4-One]

Another laser beam by muscles.

[awh™]

Damn, I hate DP's.

[If the Schu fits]

Someday Revere will hit an inside the park HR at the very least.

[awh™]

Schu, don't bet your life on it.

[NEPP]

Revere somehow hit 5 HRs in the minor leagues and IIRC, none of them were inside the park jobs.

Without eye witnesses though, I just dont know that I can believe it.

[Dickie Thong]

Looks like there's zombies on the field, too.

[Chris in VT]

Papelbon could convert his next 30 save opportunities, and people would still rip him the first time he screws up.
Posted by: BobbyD | Friday, April 25, 2014 at 07:59 PM

That's the drawback to being an unlikable loud-mouthed jerk. He made his bed.

[GBrettfan]

Hernandez definitely does not masquerade as an ace.

[Bowa Constrictor]

Losing to the D'backs is inexcusebale.

[NEPP]

Not just losing as we will almost certainly lose 2 of 3 or get swept outright.

Its just how this team plays.

[Bowa Constrictor]

Not only is it inexcusebale. It's inexcusable.

[bittel]

The DBacks were not going to play .300 ball forever. With Hernandez on the mound, this figured.

Game's not over yet either, of course.

[NEPP]

Its been a very interesting strike zone tonight.

[Iceman]

BAP's love affair with Prado spanning several years is bizarre on many levels. He's called better players than Prado all kinds of awful names.

[GBrettfan]

Chase being Chase. Awesome.

[Bowa Constrictor]

Chase is playing great.

[NEPP]

Chase looking like vintage Chase.

[Chase fan]

Chase is good.

[bittel]

A tying-run-at-the-plate moment!

[Iceman]

Wow. Nice AB by Asche but I thought he was struck out 1-2.

[Curt]

Asche might get another start.

[Iceman]

Asche you f*cking idiot.

[NEPP]

That was fvcking inexcusable by Asche...WTF kid, pay attention on the bases.

[Bowa constrictor]

The D'Backs true colors are coming through.

[NEPP]

Looks safe.

[Bake McBride Was Here]

Just as Asche planned it.

[bittel]

Not watching. Asche get picked off and a challenge?

[Iceman]

Still stupid. Fortunate he was a split second fast there.

[kuvasz]

you bet NEEP. i was screaming at him to look at the third base coach.. safe!

[Iceman]

Still stupid. Fortunate he was a split second fast there.

[Iceman]

Still stupid. Fortunate he was a split second fast there.

[Iceman]

Still stupid. Fortunate he was a split second fast there.

[NEPP]

He took a big turn at 2B and almost got caught getting back...it was initially ruled out.

[Bowa constrictor]

What the hell is it with these west coast stadiums and music?

[Bowa constrictor]

What the hell is it with these west coast stadiums and music?

[Curt]

You know, history would be a whole lot different had they had replay. Overturned calls on big plays are almost the norm.

[Iceman]

Revere limping.

Woohoo! Tony Gwynn, your new CF.

[bittel]

thx NEPP.

[Iceman]

Still stupid. Fortunate he was a split second fast there.

[GBrettfan]

bittel, Gwynn's hit (which was ruled an error) went through and Asche thought about going from 1B to 3B, thought better of it (or belatedly noticed the 3B coach) and dove back into 2B as the ball came in and the 2Bman tagged him. But Asche's hand got in before the tag touched him.

[NEPP]

A wild pitch would be awesome here.

[NEPP]

That was a pretty crappy, weak swing there given the circumstances.

Weak sauce by Rollins.

[Bake McBride Was Here]

"Jim Salisbury ‏@JSalisburyCSN 20m

Tyson Gillies suspended 3 games at Lehigh Valley for undisclosed infraction."

At first glance, I thought that said " . . . for undisclosed infection."

[bittel]

thx, GB. I really would have felt better if we'd tied the game there. I'm thinking it's a second-tier bullpen night because of it. Hopefully not.

[NEPP]

I really wish Asche was a better player than he appears to be.

[Bowa constrictor]

That was a tough play.

[NEPP]

It wasnt that tough...3B make that same play all the time with zero issues. Asche seems to have major issues barehanding balls and charging balls in general.

[Bowa constrictor]

The ball probably had a lot of spin on it and was bouncing. It wasn't a slow roller like when one bunts and you see a 3B make a barehanded play.

[Bowa constrictor]

Here we go with the weird music again.

[GBrettfan]

Gameday has this "Color" feature now that gives commentary.

About the last inning, I read:

Diamondbacks Gameday @ARIGameday
Innings like these are how you get to be 7-18. Pitching and defense disappoint when all you need are shutdown innings w/ a lead.

Sounds like something we'd say about our Phillies, no?

[Bowa constrictor]

I remember this guy having meltdowns vs the Phillies as a Met and walking the ballpark.

[GBrettfan]

Of course, they ARE still winning....

[Bowa constrictor]

What was that all about?

Watch Perez meltdown now!

[GBrettfan]

We're complaining about Ollie's sleeve?

[GBrettfan]

Just trying to rattle him, you think?

[NEPP]

Watch Perez put one in Howard's ear to get back at us.

[Conway Twitty]

Gillies destroyed dugout equipment after going 0-5 w/4K's.

[Bowa constrictor]

Ollie's a piece of work.

[GBrettfan]

Right, NEPP, I was thinking Ollie would be and does look pissed. Pretty sure he can K Howard with or without sleeves.

[GBrettfan]

Or not.

Good for Howard.

[NEPP]

Damn, a hit?!?

Way to go, Ryno.

[Bowa constrictor]

Jeez, Gibson doesn't look so good walking. I guess all those injuries caught up with him.

[bittel]

Byrd in a favorable spot. Make them pay.