Phillies vs. Marlins: Series open thread

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[Iceman]

I just have to applaud Sandberg for bunting the best base-stealer on the team over to second and wasting an out. Just brilliant outside the box thinking right there.

Anyone else miss Charlie?

[GBrettfan]

Walk off coming up.

[bay_area_phan]

"Anyone else miss?"

Cholly's legend has really grown as people have seen Sandberg's idiocy. The reality is, they're both idiots. This is the guy who used to start Mini-mart at a corner OF position. What makes us think he wouldn't have bunted there?

[GBrettfan]

That is a good point, Iceman. Let Revere steal rather than bunt him over. Maybe Sandberg feared he'd be caught stealing?

[clout]

Diekman is fine when the Phillies are trailing, but you really don't want to see him in a tie game or when the Phillies have a 1-run lead.

[GBrettfan]

Charlie probably would have PH Ruf or JMJ, hoping for a bomb or at least an XBH.

[GBrettfan]

Idiot Diekman.

[BobbyD]

Howard could be 0 for 30 career against a particular lefty and he wouldn't be pinch hit for. Not by Sandberg. Not by Manuel. Not by any manager in baseball.

[Willard Preacher]

Who ever saw the guy with reverse splits and bases loaded hitting a walk off there?

[kuvasz]

waste of three hours

[clout]

Wait, Diekman blew the game? I was told bullpen doesn't cause losses.

[bullit]

GBf: damn your clairvoyance. lol

[Willard Preacher]

Loss Attributable to Ryne Sandberg?

[Iceman]

BAP- I don't think he would have PH Tony Gwynn Jr. in the 9th inning of a tie game, with Ruf and Ruiz and Mayberry still available, so no, I don't think he would've bunted.

Sandberg's fascination with non-MLB player Tony Gwynn Jr. is one of the more bizarre trends that has emerged this season.

[pblunts]

I get it that Diekman throws hard, but I don't quite get where J-Roll was positioned there. That looked like a fairly routine grounder-albeit a hard hit one- to short off the bat.

[Five-4-One]

This was as badly a managed game as you can possibly have.

The existence of this bullpen in this form makes hoping for any type of sustained success by this team a complete pipe dream.

If the organization, in its current form, is allowed to continue in its current methods with regards to finding, grooming and producing young arms, and acquiring veteran arms then you can forget about seeing a complete product for a long time.

[GBrettfan]

bullit, my prediction was meant to be a reverse jinx. Alas, it only worked for the one batter.

[Five-4-One]

Its actually kind of hard to believe that there could be a bullpen THIS BAD.

There is no fix, there is not end in sight. Amaro literally made almost no effort in the offseason to make them any better. Its bewildering.

[NEPP]

So Diekman's .977 OPS against in "close and late" situations coming into today didnt inspire confidence?

That's what happens when you have a bullpen with only 1 somewhat reliable reliever (Papelbon).

[pblunts]

@Five-4-One it's kind of scary that unless something drastic happens in the next two weeks that this clown will be left in charge of the team's most important draft in a decade.

Right, wrong or somewhere in between, Amaro will go down as one of the most hated and vilified in Philadelphia sports history.

[bullit]

i know, GBf. just kiddin'.

[NEPP]

Dont worry, Amaro is personally scouting guys for the draft. His expert opinion will take us a long way.

If they take Jake Gatewood, you might as well move on to another team. He's the classic "toolshed without a clue how to actually hit" player that shouldnt even go in the 1st round let alone at #7 overall.

[pblunts]

@NEPP You know, when I read the anecdote from Salisbury recently about how Amaro seemed to be more involved in scouting this year, it actually kind of p*issed me off. What, is this pick more important than other years because it's so high? Is he desperate for his job? If this is true, it's just so aggravating as a fan.

[ColonelTom]

On bunting Gwynn - I don't like the move, but Cishek is very, very hard to steal against. I'd rather have seen Gwynn swing, though, since he's hard to double up. Of course, I'd really rather have had a major-league hitter at the plate.

[GBrettfan]

This is cheerful:

Matt Gelb ‏@magelb 8m
The Phillies are 20-24. They were 21-23 through 44 games in 2012 and 2013.

And we'll get to see more of our BP without Lee in the rotation, while AJ's pitching hurt, KK hasn't won since last August, Hernandez can't go more than 5IP....Meanwhile, our offense too frequently sputters, with or without runners on.

[Dickie Thong]

Don't worry. Amaro is sending Sarge and Wheels to represent the Phils in the draft.

[Willard Preacher]

Iceman, I was explaining to my fiance that Gwynn is the son of one of the best all around hitters of my lifetime (and nephew of another big leaguer), so I didn't know why he sucked so bad. Her retort was something along the lines of "well, genetics are genetics, so he probably just needs some more experience."

That, in a nut shell, is likely the Ryne Sandberg/TGJ dynamic. Only thing I can think of.

[NEPP]

"I assure you, we're scouting as fast as we can. I need more men!"

"Perhaps The Amaro can find new ways to motivate you when he arrives. He's most displeased with your apparent lack of progress"

"The Amaro is coming here? We shall double our efforts!"

"I hope so, Marti, for your sake. The Amaro is not as forgiving as I."

[ColonelTom]

The Pirates just DFA'ed Wandy Rodriguez. He's been reduced to "crafty veteran" status at this point and has been knocked around this year (6.75 ERA), but his xFIP is only 4.39. Given our current sad state, it's probably worth at least kicking the well-worn tires once he's released.

[bullit]

tyson gillies may have self-control problems. but at least he hasn't bitten off a piece of a teammate's ear.

[Five-4-One]

NEPP, thanks for bringing up Gatewood. Read TGP's draft prep article on him. I fully expect to have nightmares this evening.

From TGP:

Gatewood could end up your cookie cutter AAAA guy who can mash, but Strikeout far too often to stick in the Majors.

and

Whether the Phillies draft Gatewood says a lot about how fixable they think his swing is.

[NEPP]

Gatewood would be a disaster pick at #7 but a solid pick at #50.

You dont roll the dice like that in the first 10 picks.

[bay_area_phan]

"I don't think he would have PH Tony Gwynn Jr. in the 9th inning of a tie game, with Ruf and Ruiz and Mayberry still available, so no, I don't think he would've bunted."

Well, neither one of us can do anything except speculate, so this isn't a debate that can go anywhere. But Cholly's the guy who used to start Galvis & Mini-Mart in the OF, and who found 350+ PAs for Bruntlett & Mini-Mart over separate 2-year spans. The idea that he would have banished a AAA caliber player simply doesn't hold water. Cholly also did plenty of bunting. In fact, I can remember being exasperated on many occasions when he bunted in the 1st or 2nd inning.

I do think Sandberg's idiocy has caused people to adjust their memories of Cholly. Many of the idiocies of which Sandberg is guilty are things which started under Cholly. They're both terrible game managers. In fairness, so are 90% of the managers out there.

[Five-4-One]

Of course, in the interest of full disclosure, the article was not completely negative on the kid, saying that scouts are basically 50-50 on him and that what he does possess is elite, in the sense that his power is already extremely well developed.

That being said, I see the Phillies drafting him and applying their tried and true, time tested methods on him-

If its already broke, don't fix it.

[Five-4-One]

do think Sandberg's idiocy has caused people to adjust their memories of Cholly. Many of the idiocies of which Sandberg is guilty are things which started under Cholly. They're both terrible game managers. In fairness, so are 90% of the managers out there.

Posted by: bay_area_phan | Thursday, May 22, 2014 at 03:51 PM

So what you're saying is that the idiot GM and the cadre of idiot "baseball people" have now employed two idiot managers? Just wanted to make sure I have that down.

[GBrettfan]

Read:

David Murphy ‏@ByDavidMurphy 1m
So the NY Post dropped Ruben Amaro Jr.'s name as a candidate for MLB commish. Did you handle this already, Twitter? http://pagesix.com/2014/05/21/disneys-bob-iger-could-be-the-next-mlb-commissioner/ …

[bay_area_phan]

CT: That's a quick hook by the Pirates, considering that Wandy has been a solid 2- / 3+ starter for like the past 8 years. If I were RAJ, I'd be all over it. Wandy Rodriguez is an inner circle Hall of Famer compared to the likes of Buchanan, Manship, and O'Sullivan. Then, when Lee gets back, you can move either Wandy or Fausto to the pen.

[Five-4-One]

Wow, Prince Fielder is likely to undergo season ending neck surgery.

Seems like somebody is going to be desperate for a lefty power hitting first baseman. I wonder who could possibly fit that bill?

[clout]

I've been saying this for 3 years, but Diekman just isn't a very good prospect. You should expect inconsistency, which adds up to an overall career of mediocrity.

[ColonelTom]

GBrettfan, I'm 100% in favor of making RAJ the new commissioner. Hell, I'm on board with declaring him Overlord of the Known Universe if it gets him out of the Phils' front office.

[Curt]

Indeed, is there a petition I can sign?

[Curt]

Unfortunately, the other teams, and particularly the NL teams, would veto the idea.

[Meyer]

They already have a candidate from a Mickey Mouse organization.

[Five-4-One]

They already have a candidate from a Mickey Mouse organization.

Posted by: Meyer | Thursday, May 22, 2014 at 04:10 PM

Thread, meet winner.

[bay_area_phan]

Diekman reminds me of J.C. Romero. Romero was wild as hell, very tough on lefties, and generally terrible against righties but with an ability to induce ground balls which sometimes enabled him to bail himself out of the jams created by his weaknesses. Diekman has the same traits, except instead of bailing himself out with groundballs, he does it with strikeouts. In a good bullpen, he'd be filling the role currently filled by Hollands, who has no business being on a major league roster.

[Dickie Thong]

Wandy is 35, so there is a good chance Amaro tries to get him.

[PLM]

They lost ugh!

[ColonelTom]

Texas already increased their payroll by $11M this year to $135M. Unless we cover almost all of Howard's salary going forward, I don't think they'd take him.

Ruf, on the other hand, might be a very good fit for them. If they're desperate enough, the Phils might be able to swipe Ronald Guzman (19-year-old, lefty-hitting 1B prospect currently in low-A) or another solid lower-minors prospect.

[Five-4-One]

Tom,

I was kidding. The Piece is less trade-able than Solyndra stock.

Hard to believe that huge lumbering power hitters are prone to breaking down in the middle of monster contracts. Just didn't see that coming.

[NEPP]

Ian Kinsler is probably laughing his arse off right now.

[GBrettfan]

On Amaro for commissioner: It's a time-honored tradition to promote someone you want to get rid of. Phillies should enthusiastically recommend him. Do we trust the owners to choose a plum replacement, however?

[GBrettfan]

Matt Gelb ‏@magelb 7m
It's official: David Buchanan on Saturday.

[StairsTalksTooMuch]

Sure, bring on Wandy and his old 35 year old arm and high priced salary.

Maybe we can get our payrol above 200 million and still finish 76-86.

[bay_area_phan]

It brings me no joy to dump on a guy who's getting the chance to live out his dream and pitch in the major leagues . . . but Buchanan is awful. He walks too many, doesn't strike anyone out, and doesn't induce ground balls. Opposing AAA hitters are hitting .301 off of him, and he has a WHIP of 1.574. And he's already 25, so he's no spring chicken.

Best case scenario is that he manages to have a few passable games for us while Lee is out. But he is far more likely to turn out like Tyler Cloyd or Andrew Carpenter than Kyle Kendrick.

[bittel]

Cholly's legend has really grown as people have seen Sandberg's idiocy. The reality is, they're both idiots.
***************

Sad but true. JI'm dumbfounded about Sandberg, after he gave lip service to base running, holding runners on, defense, etc.

Revere steals second, and THEN if you want to bunt, it's not a disgrace. Maybe not the right move, but to get Rollins up in that spot with Utley behind him I'd live with it. But given that Gwynn isn't likely to DP, how do you bunt??

[ColonelTom]

STTM, Rodriguez will be available for a pro-rated portion of the major-league minimum as soon as he clears waivers and requests his release.

[bay_area_phan]

Who cares if Wandy is 35? It's not like he'd be blocking even a halfway decent prospect. And he's a FA after this year. We're, hopefully, talking about a 3-week stop-gap. If he stinks in those 3 weeks, you release him. If he's good, you move Fausto to the pen, where he'd probably be one of our 3 best relivers.

[MG]

Bet against 'Road/Day' Hamels you ask at +105 for the Fish today? Bet your a$$ I did.

No single MLB wager has made me more the last 4-5 years in MLB.

[MG]

Sad thing about the bullpen has been that Papelbon and Adams have pitched so well. It just emphasizes just how piss poor the rest of the bullpen has been and that includes Diekman & Bastardo.

[MG]

Ruben Amaro Jr as commissioner? I pray not given what an operational f@ckup he has been as the Phils GM and how poorly he handled his public persona the first 3 years here.

[aksmith]

MG- You're being shortsighted. You can have him as GM of the Phillies or Commish. There does not appear to be a third choice with this ownership group. So, get on board. Rube for Commish! Yeah!

[aksmith]

Oh, and by the way. Pettibone was offered an injection of PRP (platelet rich plasma) for his ailing shoulder and turned it down. His sanity should be questioned. That would have been the smartest thing to do, and the fact that he turned it down will be very sad form him when he's on the operating table later this year. I'm thinking stupid rubs off on everyone in this organization.

[Iceman]

What is wrong with 'road' Hamels?

MG talking out of his a*s again, nothing new there.

[PLM]

Im not big on the Ethan kid (hopefully hell surprise me) get the kid another outing or two an get him up and Manship outta here.

[Iceman]

"Home Hamels" (2011-2013): 3.173 ERA
"Road Hamels" (2011-2013): 3.128 ERA

[Iceman]

"Night Hamels" (2011-2013): 3.091 ERA
"Day Hamels" (2011-2013): 3.264 ERA

[MG]

Career Hamels:

Home: 123 GS, 3.35 ERA, 1.10 WHIP, 8.4 K/9, 2.1 BB/9, 4.0 K/BB, 1.12 HR/9, .234 BAA, .279 BABIP, .673 OPS

Road: 127 GS, 3.45 ERA, 1.20 WHIP, 8.7 K/9, 2.4 BB/9, 3.6 K/BB, 0.96 HR/9, .245 BAA, .300 BABIP, .695 OPS

As you would expect, Hamels has given up more HRs at CBP than on the road because CBP is a HR-friendly park which hurts a pitcher like Hamels who gives up his share of HRs (1.04 HR/9 career).

Despite that his numbers are better across the board despite allowing 14% more HRs at CBP during his career.

[clout]

In terms of prospects, Buchanan's closest comp would be Tyler Cloyd and that's being generous. He's a pitch-to-contact guy who is effectively only when his control is near-perfect. His stuff is less than mediocre and he's mostly gone unrated as a prospect because he really isn't much of one.

Should be interesting.

[Iceman]

The last three years, Hamels has been better on the road than at home. In his ENTIRE CAREER, his ERA has been 0.10 better at home.

MG says he's made more money the past 4-5 years on what is basically a statistically negligible difference (and in the past 3 years has actually gone the other way). I don't think anyone here buys that BS.

[clout]

If the Phils could've picked up a few good pitchers in that 2010 draft (when Buchanan was their 7th rounder), that would pay off now.

Looking back, here's the pitchers they took: 1. Biddle (shows promise) 2. Perci Garner (looks like failed prospect or fringe guy at best) 4. Bryan Morgado (Indy league now) 5. Scott Frazier (did not sign) 8. Steven Malcolm (Indy league) 10. Mario Hollands (nuff said.)

[Willard Preacher]

Iceman, I certainly won't disagree, but as far as making $ goes, it's actually # of games the Phils won and lost (day/night) in that time frame, and not necessarily ERA.

Sure, he pitches roughly the same, but the meme is that the Phils lose his day games, for whatever reason.

[MG]

You have to look at the cross-section of day/road and day/home and night/home and night/road to get the legit numbers.

[NEPP]

At least Biddle is doing pretty well in AA on his 2nd go around. So that pick was fairly solid at least.

[PLM]

Not mentioned but it if wasnt for the injury Adam Morgan was looking like the better prospect and was slightly ahead of Biddle.

[Willard Preacher]

So the Dodgers series (and JW's autoposted thread header) is on deck. Is this the beginning of the end for BL?

[Iceman]

WP- the last three years, Cole is 22-13 on the road and 17-16 at home. I'm not sure what the team's overall record is in his starts, but in games where he's pitched to a decision, MG is even more wrong.

I'm not going to go back through game logs to see which were during the day and which at night, because it's fairly clear at this point that he's full of it. The idea that he's only bad on the road during the day is such a random comment that I'm not sure anyone in their right mind could figure out whether or not the claim is true. And even if it is somehow true, it's so statistically insignificant that it doesn't warrant a post every time he pitches on the road during the day.

I'm going to miss this type of stuff when BL gets put down, though.

[Phillies Fan]

When a random anonymous poster on a blog calls the winningest manager in Phillies history an "idiot" the anonymous poster is making a very big fool of his/her anonymous self.

[Willard Preacher]

Iceman, I actually started perusing some game logs, but couldn't find "time of start" among them. Now I'm curious. Though, to the bigger point, I do think the day/night thing is something that's blown out of proportion - and I'd never heard the home/away piece before.

So, let's put the burden of proof on MG. MG, can you find records for each of day/night at each of home/away? Better yet, Phillies records in those same scenarios (as those would be the Vegas wagers).

[Meyer]

ultra marathon runners Lehigh valley

[Meyer]

Oops, I was working on a theme for the future. Please ignore.

[Juums]

So, as draft-day fears are starting to come up in conversation, allow me to voice mine. Per Baseball America's latest mock draft, they've got the Phils taking Tyler Kolek with the seventh-overall pick. Which gives me the willies, given how the Phils' luck with these sorts of things goes.

Now, Kolek has upside worthy of the pick: He is, by all accounts, the hardest-throwing high schooler of the draft era. But at 6'5", 250 lb., there's a lot of risk there in terms of the sustainability of his mechanics. And that there'll be a lot of miles on the arm as he works through the lower minors. He's such a unique combination of mass and velocity that, with the Phils' luck, he's tempting fate and asking to blow out his shoulder halfway through his first year of Rookie ball.

Most mock drafts have Kolek going higher, which would remove the Phils' ability to find a cloud to every silver lining. But if he falls to 7th overall, do you take him? Or do you hedge with someone with less upside but fewer question marks?

[Curt]

So Lee gets replaced by someone named Buchanan. Try to imagine who will replace Rollins. Utley? Ruiz? The complete and utter lack of any depth is why Rube's Juggernaut is headed for 95 losses.

[NEPP]

Kolek will be a very dangerous pick for a team that has terrible luck developing pitchers.

Hopefully they avoid having to make that choice and a guy like Nick Gordon falls to them.

[Juums]

NEPP:
I more or less agree. Any hesitation I have is due to not being all that up to date on Kolek's profile beyond his being a big dude who throw hellaciously hard.

And if we're being hopeful, go big or go home: Hope that Alex Jackson falls that far. But as we're probably not that lucky, Gordon would be a fine pick-up.

[StairsTalksTooMuch]

Hard to have depth when your depth was traded for guys like Roy Oswalt, Hunter Pence and Cliff Lee (who all helped lead the Phils to 0 world series championships).

Be nice to still have Jarred Cosart and Jonathan Villar and Santana and Jon Singleton still around. But when you "go for it" and come up short you are left without much left in the cupboard at the AA and AAA levels for a while. And that's where we are at. We have no depth and as soon as somebody gets hurt, we are screwed.

Plus our draft in 2010 was pretty uninspiring. Plenty of other teams we are battling with in the NL either have players already on their ML roster from that draft or close to it in AAA or AA (ready to be called up soon and contribute at the big league level).

Also, get Garcia and Manship out of here already. Bring up DeFratus and Ethan Martin. Garcia is a joke and Manship obviously could only get hitters out in spring training (or isn't good when he only works once every 10 days). Its not like the options at AAA are marketedly better but DeFratus and Martin are better options and at least have some potential.

[clout]

NEPP, Juums: Everything I've seen says Kolek is a Top 5 pick, so Phils won't have a shot. Gordon's doubtful to fall to 7 as well although he's the kind of toolshed Phils love. Kyle Freeland is likely to be there and he projects as a LH mid-rotation guy.

["Prince Fielder has a neck"]

Also, get Garcia and Manship out of here already. Bring up DeFratus and Ethan Martin. Garcia is a joke and Manship obviously could only get hitters out in spring training (or isn't good when he only works once every 10 days). Its not like the options at AAA are marketedly better but DeFratus and Martin are better options and at least have some potential.

Posted by: StairsTalksTooMuch | Thursday, May 22, 2014 at 09:42 PM

Right on...its a darn shame as everyone wants to blame the Core, but the actually been holding their own.

[Dickie Thong]

> So Lee gets replaced by someone named Buchanan.

Buchanan being replaced by Lincoln. Now that would be historic!

["Prince Fielder has a neck"]

Im going out on a limb a bit here. Im going to say that Rube is going to get Manship outta here very soon.

[Iceman]

'Road/Day Hamels': The facts

2011- 6 starts (3-3) with a 3.098 ERA

2012- 5 starts (4-1) with a 2.605 ERA

2013- 5 Starts (2-3) with a 3.446 ERA

From 2011-2013: 16 starts (9-7) in 110 IP with a 3.027 ERA

MG, you are full of crap.

[bullit]

with the arrival of buchanan, can civil war be far behind? don't we have a johnson that could oversee the reconstruction?

[bay_area_phan]

For the record, I would have called up Greg Smith. He's no great shakes, but he has been LV's best starting pitcher since the beginning of 2013. He even had one pretty decent year in the majors, though that was eons ago.

[NEPP]

NEPP, Juums: Everything I've seen says Kolek is a Top 5 pick, so Phils won't have a shot. Gordon's doubtful to fall to 7 as well although he's the kind of toolshed Phils love. Kyle Freeland is likely to be there and he projects as a LH mid-rotation guy.
****************

I agree that Kolek wont fall. Also, Gordon is far more polished than the "toolshed" guys we tend to love. Gatewood is that guy, not Gordon.

Freeland wouldn't be a bad pick. He's not an Ace but his floor is still pretty high even if there isn't a ton of upside. He's a guy that could actually contribute at the MLB level in 2-3 years.

[limoguy]

Tyler Cloyd currently struggling at AAA Columbus. 1-3 with a 6.38 ERA in 8 starts. Opponents hitting .330

[GBrettfan]

No surprise about Cloyd.

* * * *

Dave Murphy this morning. He thinks Dom could benefit from time in AAA and that the Phillies need more offense without Lee in the rotation (I agree). Says if not Dom, then Revere. I guess the only reason he doesn't advocate shipping Garcia down is the argument for offense. Lord knows Garcia isn't helping us in the 'pen.

David Murphy ‏@ByDavidMurphy 11m
Might the Phillies consider sending Dom Brown to AAA? Should they? YOU WON'T BELIEVE WHAT COMES NEXT: http://www.philly.com/philly/blogs/phillies/Might-the-Phillies-consider-sending-Dom-Brown-to-the-minors.html …

[Phillibuster]

Bullit: Well, we just sent Lee to the DL. Should we start looking to trade for Grant Balfour? Maybe Kyle McClellan?

[bullit]

well done, buster.

[Pandfuldell]

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[Olunnime]

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