Phillies vs. Marlins: Series open thread

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[Cyclic]

He just said "on cylinders"?

[GBrettfan]

Of course this happens after the month with so many off days.

[GBrettfan]

So Gelb says "at least three weeks, probably"
but the Phillies? Per Salisbury, "Phils hope just a 15 day thing."

[Cyclic]

I was thinking the same thing GBrett.

But then again, we have gone this long pretty much without good Hamels, right?

Hard to fire on cylinders without Lee, but now let's just "tread water" until Lee gets back.

And hope Buchanan (?) or whoever doesn't embarrass himself in however many spot starts are needed.

[MG]

Cyclic - I think so although it could have been 'all'

[Iceman]

"'The Phils are clicking on cylinders' says Diekman. Guess so.

He isn't quite as brutal as Papelbon in his post-game but he definitely belongs in the 'Dude Where is My Car, 2' sequel."

Insulting the guy while bringing consistently awful typos and the syntax of a 3rd grader. Reminds me of when GTown used to call the ball girls ugly.

[Cyclic]

I don't have a problem with it.

3 in a row might be the best this group can do. "All" or any cylinders might be apt.

[MG]

Either way Lee will need at least 1 rehab start and possibly 2.

Even if the Phils make this 15-day DL retroactive to May 19th, I would be stunned if he is back before June 15th.

[lorecore]

Is Pettibone hurt or something? In what world has David Buchanan passed him on the depth chart.

[Cyclic]

Pettibone was recently shut down and DL'd I believe.

[lorecore]

ah sh<>it your right. Out indefinitely with shoulder injury, 5/16.

["Ethan Martin"]

Phone rang...also David B phone..decision will be made soon..

[RT]

As powerful as a mighty two-stroke engine...

[MG]

Pettibone is headed to Dr. James Andrews for a 2nd opinion (which took place today supposedly) after the Phils couldn't do any better than 'labrum irregularities' in their MRI diagnosis.

Entirely possible Pettibone is headed for serious shoulder surgery and is a real question mark going ahead forward.

[PLM]

It looks that way MG, had Petti pegged as a 5th starter.

[MG]

Iceman - There is a huge difference between criticizing ball girls as 'ugly' and Diekman's awkward post-game comments

[MG]

It is a real shame because this team desperately needs cost-controlled starters for next year or two.

Pettibone isn't as good as KK/Hernandez but at $500k and less than $1M the next 2 years it would have filled a hole for the Phils instead of having to spend at least $5-6M on a bottom-tier FA equivalent.

[bay_area_phan]

Biddle would be a more inspired choice than Buchanan, but it's not like he's pitching great at AAA. He's doing a lot better than last year but he still puts up a total stinker every 2 to 3 times out. Still, I have absolutely zero faith that Buchanan or Manship will be anything except automatic losses every time they start.

[MG]

Buchanan might be tolerable. I still have no idea how Manship is on this roster since Opening Day.

Clear Sandberg thinks he is terrible and will only use him in absolute blowouts or out of sheer necessity.

[bay_area_phan]

I guess the other options are Sean O'Sullivan and Greg Smith. Smith actually once pitched 190 innings in a major league season & posted a 99 ERA+. But that was 6 years ago. Still, he has been LV's most consistent starting pitcher over the last 2 years. He's probably a better bet than Buchanan or Manship.

[aksmith]

Here's the problem with Lee. To believe it's only a tendon strain, you have to believe the Phillies' doctors are competent to read an MRI. I have no such belief.

Odds of this being an MCL injury in need of Tommy John? At least fifty fifty. Were I Cliff Lee, I'd be heading for a second opinion somewhere and fast.

[awh™]

"He's doing a lot better than last year but he still puts up a total stinker every 2 to 3 times out."

Sounds like a mid-rotation starter to me.

[awh™]

smitty, MCL or UCL?

[aksmith]

Oops. Quite correct, awh, it's UCL. Technically, in the supinator position, which is the anatomical position, the UCL is also the medial ligament in the elbow, but by custom, the knee is where it's called the MCL because there's less confusion.

[Phillibuster]

Jon Stewart goes on a pretty amusing anti-Philly rant in tonight's Daily Show. Though native-born Philly pride did force me to get a little angry at first.

[Phillibuster]

In reference to Sandberg's run-in with tainted Shake Shack burger meat.

[Conway Twitty]

Read elsewhere that AJ threw water cooler after being removed. Anybody else hear or see this?

["Sore Groin"]

Read elsewhere that AJ threw water cooler after being removed. Anybody else hear or see this?

Posted by: Conway Twitty | Wednesday, May 21, 2014 at 02:23 AM

yes but i later rescinded

[Dragon]

Well, we sure as heck did not need to hear about Lee being put on the 15 day DL list just when we were looking like a team on the rebound. Time to see what we are made of.

[GBrettfan]

I hope it really is cured with the 15-day DL. But I feel that we'll be one month without Lee, and then the elbow will flare up again, continuing to bother him throughout the season or until he gets surgery, whichever comes first.

It's going to be a long and miserable season without Lee. Hope for a shot at a WC dies with the loss of him.

[Phillibuster]

I wouldn't think that this is TJ-esque just yet. Most of the guys who have been blowing themselves out are younger, and probably don't know their bodies as well as Lee does his.

He's spent time on the DL before (scroll down to Injury History), but it's never been an elbow issue, so it's not like this is a recurring problem that we can infer has gotten worse over time.

Also, I totally didn't remember Lee taking bat splinters to the face in 2009.

[Dickie Thong]

Phillies Notes: Lee goes on DL with elbow strain

The soreness emerged April 17, the day after Lee threw a career-high 128 pitches against Atlanta.

"Then this last start, I started to feel it the last couple of innings, just about every throw," Lee said. "Obviously, it was pretty sore the next day, and I felt it trying to play catch. It was there on every throw."

Lee said the injury lingered for weeks but was never restricting until Sunday. He said the doctors assured him there was no ligament damage.

http://www.philly.com/philly/sports/phillies/20140521_Lee_has_MRI_exam_on_sore_left_elbow.html

[Dickie Thong]

Matt Gelb (@magelb)
Darin Ruf was recalled.

[Cyclic]

WHAT

[Cyclic]

So, bye bye Cesar on Saturday?

[Bonehead]

With this game schedule ahead of almost no off days between now and the all-star break, I fear that the flaws of this team - bullpen, bench - will be exposed even more than they have so far.

Now, this problem has been further compounded by our starter only lasting five innings last night, and by our most reliable starter going on the DL.

I'm ascared.

[Phillibuster]

Lee's DL is what let them recall Ruf for now.

He's probably getting a (brief) audition. If he looks good, then probably Cesar gets demoted, yeah.

If not, then Ruf gets right back on the bus and spends more time in AAA.

If he does really good, and looks solid in the outfield (assuming they play him there), this could be the swan song for one of JMJ/TGJ.

Both of them have options, so it's not a big deal for control either way.

[Phillibuster]

Those options refer to Cesar/Ruf, incidentally. I realize JMJ and TGJ don't have any.

[Mike G]

Buster, I'm not so sure Mayberry has any options.

[MG]

It was absolutely the right move to lift Burnett when Sandberg did last night & JMJ delivered in a key spot.

If Burnett got that frustrated over it, he is just being a hot head.

[Cyclic]

Gwynn might have saved himself with that catch last night

[Mike G]

Sorry, nevermind.

[MG]

Gwynn also bats LH too and is a true CF. Hernandez isn't.

The issue (and it goes back to the spring) is that having both JMJ and Ruf on the roster at the same time makes little sense. Too much overlap and leaves the Phils thin on the INF although Ruf is a 1B unlike JMJ.

[GBrettfan]

Bonehead - I agree.

* * *

At least they won that April 17 game. But at what cost? Would Lee have strained his elbow tendon if he hadn't thrown so many pitches? Or is this injury just part of being a pitcher? And should Lee have skipped the next start to give the elbow rest then?

[MG]

Elbow strain is somewhat similar to Lee's left oblique strain in late April '12 after he threw 10 IP in a 1-0 loss to the Giants.

Lee was back by May 9th and pitched well after returning. Hopefully something similar here although this sounds like he is out at least a month.

[bay_area_phan]

"Gwynn also bats LH too and is a true CF. Hernandez isn't."

Can we stop with this "Gwynn bats LH" nonsense? Batting LH is not a virtue unto itself. It is a means to an end. The end is to give the hitter an advantage against RHP, which right-handed hitters don't have. But, despite that advantage, Gwynn's career splits against RHP are a putrid .246/.320/.325/.645. And, in recent years, he has gotten even worse. For the season, he is OPSing .598 against RHP. The last time his OPS against RHP topped .600 was in 2011.

John Mayberry, who everyone agrees is terrible against RHP, still has a better career OPS against them than Gwynn does. The idea that we need to hang onto Gwynn because it gives us a LH hitter off the bench is as nonsensical as the idea that Michael Martinez was valuable because he was a switch-hitter (with a .480-ish OPS from both sides).

[Dickie Thong]

Chris Sale has been on the DL with the same issue for over a month. He made his first rehab start last week and should return before month's end.

[PLM]

If we let Gwynn go chances are pretty good that he clears and ends up in minors...I know he sucks but if we just need someone to catch, throw and run we still have Gillies as a emergency call up.

[Phillibuster]

PLM: I dunno, some of the guys on the big league squad might be protective of their equipment. Last thing we need is them going up with their "backup" bats/helmets just because the kid got peeved again.

[PLM]

Hahaha nice one Philli..

[Dickie Thong]

@PLM: As long as Gillies doesn't assault the Phillies' team pilot in mid-air, it guess he'd be OK.

[Juums]

BAP:
I agree with your fundamental point, but I initially thought OPS is the wrong metric for making it. As one point of OBP is not equal to one point of SLG. So, while Mayberry's got a career .223/.291/.366 line against RHP, he does it at the expense of nearly thirty points of OBP, and I figured that the OBP loss outweighed the SLG gain in terms of value.

Digging into Mayberry's advanced metrics, he's got a career 80 wRC+ and .291 wOBA against RHP. Gwynn? 80 wRC+ and .289 wOBA. So not only was I wrong, the advanced metrics actually quantify that Tony Gwynn Jr. is as bad as John Mayberry Jr. at hitting RHP.

[J. Weitzel]

Trivia: Name all the former Phillies participants in this year's HOF Classic:

http://baseballhall.org/hofclassic

[Dickie Thong]

Talk about bad omens...

Matt Gelb (@magelb)
The Phillies will be represented at the MLB draft by Gary Matthews and Chris Wheeler.

[PLM]

@PLM: As long as Gillies doesn't assault the Phillies' team pilot in mid-air, it guess he'd be OK.

Posted by: Dickie Thong | Wednesday, May 21, 2014 at 12:56 PM

CTHU...Might have to get Dom Brown to sit on him..

[bay_area_phan]

I keep hearing that, if we moved Marlon Byrd to CF, the defensive results would be disastrous. But I'm not sure where this is coming from. He's an excellent defensive right fielder and he has been predominantly a centerfielder throughout his career. He played the position regularly as recently as 2011/2012. Though based on a SSS, his CF UZR since 2011 gives no reason to believe that he has disgraced himself when he has played there. You need only watch Ben Revere to know that OF defense is about a lot more than speed.

If the Phillies aren't satisfied with Revere's CF defense, just move Byrd to CF and end this Tony Gwynn, Jr. crap. Between Dom, Ruf, Cesar, Mayberry, and Revere (whose RF defense is still very good), they ought to be able to mix & match for the two corner OF spots.

[bay_area_phan]

Juums: Except that Mayberry can hit LHP very well, and Gwynn can't hit them at all. The absolutely only thing that Gwynn is good for is defense. But the 1 or 2 catches that Gwynn has made, which Revere/Mayberry/Byrd would not have made, is not nearly enough to offset the 73 PAs in which he has hit .180 and slugged .213.

[PLM]

I be curious to see but Byrd looks a little slow too me. I remember not long ago some BL'ers posted how Shane(in the next year or two) would decline as a CF as he gets slower and older. I do realize instincts, reaction, experience and positioning play a big part. Speaking of Gwynn he did pretty well for himself in the minors (last year) you think the guy could pull it together enough to be a 4th OF/PH/PR at the MLB level.

[Juums]

BAP:
It's because much of the calling to move Byrd to CF is by folks who aren't a fan of Revere's bat and that the best offensive OF we could run out there is Ruf/Byrd/Dom. Which would be, if not disastrous defensively, certainly a rather significant downgrade. (If only because it involves two -10 UZR/150-grade guys in the corners instead of one.)

The defensive problems are further compounded by the fact that, if you're down on Revere's glove, the only place to put him is LF. As all of the complaints about his arm will play-up in RF just as they did in CF, even if Revere's range will still let him post fantastic numbers on advanced metrics. The problem is that, for all of our outfield options, we have exactly one guy who can both hit and play the field as a corner OF in a league-average manner. And that's the guy we want to move to center.

Incidentally, that could be part of what's motivating the team to look at Asche as an outfield piece. As while a good chunk of his surplus value is eaten up by moving off of 3B, there's still value to be had in a LHB who can post a 110 OPS+ and play average-ish corner OF defense. A second well-rounded OF in the mix is also what's been missing from the mix for the past couple of years.

[Iceman]

I'm actually on board with BAP's plan of Byrd in CF.

I still think Revere should be the starter (and bat at the bottom of the order), but if he's been officially benched, you might as well do it to get more offense. Because they certainly aren't gaining anything by putting the god awful Mayberry/Gwynn combo out there.

I'd have to see Byrd in CF to see how bad he truly is. He might be as terrible as people say, and if that's the case, then it isn't feasible. But statistics don't really show him to be that terrible.

[Juums]

Re: Byrd's actual ability in CF, a lot of the presumption of badness is because of his age and that he's not playing there anymore. As, the conventional thinking holds, one doesn't move down the defensive spectrum until such time as you can no longer occupy the spot you are in competently. As he moved off in his age-34 season, it's not unreasonable to assume it was because age had eroded the tools that let him be a competent CF.

Whether he still can play CF competently...well, we'll have to see, won't we?

[jr]

Gwynn brings nothing to the offense. However if JMJ or Revere were playing last night the Phils would have lost. No way either of them make that catch.

[MG]

http://grantland.com/features/brad-ziegler-appreciating-submarine-pitchers/

Great article on submariners (baseball type and not the Das Boot type).

Used to love watching Tekulve throw as a kid when I went to games at the Vet. Always was a bit underrated and never knew how good his numbers were in '86 and '87 for the Phils.

Classic longman reliever who had heavy workloads both years (110 IP in '86 and 105 in '87) and was very effective. Definitely an underrated Phils' reliever during his ~4 years here.

[MG]

Needs editing but Tekulve was a 2+ bWAR reliever in '86 and '87 and nearly ~3 bWAR in '86. 7.1 bWAR in under 4 years here.

[johnnysanz3]

Interesting from that article that Papelbon and Adams are #3 and #5 on that list of lowest ERA with 350+ innings pitched.

[Ben Revere]

.

[MG]

Would Ben Revere be aided by watching Ben Revere defensive highlight video clips? Is that more of a philosophical than baseball-oriented questions?

[GBrettfan]

Same lineup tonight as last night.

[bullit]

ben certainly wouldn't try that catch just 15 feet to the left, where a chain-link window for the bullpen creates an altogether unsafe section of wall.

[The other Ben Revere]

.

[MG]

Phils originally drafted Ziegler too although he did have a very unconventional route to the majors.

Bradford was one of my favorite pitchers to watch live. Literally got to the point when he was with the A's that his release point was just above the pitcher's mound with his knuckles almost scrapping it at times.

Not even sure if his pitches fit the conventional norms either given their really funky movement given the release point too.

[Cyclic]

Great. Haven't seen enough of this Tony Gwynn Jr. fellow.

He was such a crucial part of last night's victory.

[Phillibuster]

In much the same vein, I doubt Tony Gwynn Jr. makes that catch on a second attempt.

In other words, it was a great catch and should be lauded, but that doesn't mean Revere wouldn't have made it... Or that he, or TGJ, would be able to do so, given another opportunity.

["Ben Revere"]

taking more practice catching balls over my head...Not a natural thing to do...Sandberg has me taking 20 a day...

[Stweie]

The Jon Stewart show is as funny as a revival meeting. I never understood him but I understand why certain people watch it, the same reason people attend a revival meeting.

["Ben Revere"]

Ask not If i can make the catch but if Mayberry can...I bet you 2 bits that he doesnt..One of these sub .200 hitters must go..

[Phillibuster]

What I found bemusing was the 'rant' about Philly. Like I said, I've got a bit of a chip on my shoulder about NYC looking down on Philly, so I initially was angry, but when it became obvious he couldn't keep a straight face about it, it was more funny.

Also: the comparison of the cheesesteak to the Shake Shack burger.

[Phillibuster]

And by 'angry' I mean "that combination of inferiority complex and justified/unjustified loathing of another locale that tries to belittle my own hometown."

Something Philadelphians seem to get a bit more strongly than a number of other regions, being so tightly packed between "The Important Government Place" and "The Important Financial/Cultural Place."

[bay_area_phan]

Since I missed the early part of last night's game, I finally decided it was time for me to find the video of this historically great catch that everyone keeps talking about. Now that I've seen it, I stand underwhelmed. I mean, it was a nice catch. But it was hardly spectacular, & I'm not sure how anyone can say, with any degree of certainty, that Revere wouldn't have made it. He has made catches like that plenty of times and he'd probably make this one at least as often as TGJ, if not more. The difference is, when Revere makes that catch, he doesn't have to do it over the shoulder. He makes it look much easier because he's a lot faster than Gwynn.

[Ryan Howard]

Shake Shack? Puh-leeze. Subway's Big Philly Cheesesteak puts burgers to shame. It oughta be enshrined in the...mmm...Hall of Fame.

[Willard Preacher]

That Ruf got the call up, with the open roster spot, is a good step (what we view as a no-brainer doesn't always seem to resonate with those making the decisions).

However, if it's a 3-day call up and he'd sent back down while the dregs of the bench continue to fester, I'm abandoning any hope that this team employs a single human being that possesses common sense.

[bullit]

i noticed that shorly after the subway pcs ads started running, that they reworked it to remove the word "fresh" from howard's ode, since there is nothing "fresh" about it. subways lacks the equipment to make it's cheese steaks from raw sliced steak on a flattop griddle. so, i assume they are buying already cooked and frozen steak, heating it up and adding cheese. total blasphemy.

[Willard Preacher]

Bueller?

[Willard Preacher]

Surely I'm not the only one here, and there's something effed up with TypePad again, right?

[Juums]

Not really much to comment on. The Phils've come out and put up a little bit of offense, and KK's in the process of giving it back.

While I wasn't happy with the way the Asche PA ended, the 6-pitch Ks are much preferable to the 3-pitch Ks where looked clueless in Spring Training. (Also, do you think he reads Beerleaguer? If so, he probably agrees with BAP re: TGJ, as the bat apparently homed in on him in the dugout.)

[bay_area_phan]

That looked like a Ben Revere throw.

[Willard Preacher]

This recent trend of the Phils scoring in the first inning is pretty sweet. The recurring trend of giving that lead back up, however...

And HOLY EFFING HELL with the "Day-Oh" chant in Miami. They play it virtually every batter.

[Cyclic]

Hope the offense is ready to score a lot more

[Willard Preacher]

Oh, and STILL PLENTY OF GOOD SEATS AVAILABLE IN MIAMI!

[Cyclic]

DAYYYYYYYYY O

[bay_area_phan]

Why does Gameday keep referring to a play at 1st as a "force play?"

[Cyclic]

If Brown touched the front of the bag, he'd have been safe.

Can he do anything right?

[Juums]

Dom looks like he was out by a quarter-step, owable entirely to his cutting his last stride to the bag to begin decelerating despite not actually having tagged it yet. And there's the confirmation of it.

On a night when we need every baserunner we can get, that just irks. Unless I'm just seeing things, which is also possible.

[bay_area_phan]

Kendrick's actually getting really nice movement on his pitches tonight. He had some bad luck in the 1st inning, plus a lousy call on the walk to Stanton on what should have been strike 3.

[Juums]

...did Carlos Ruiz just try to bunt? That's the kind of smallball ridiculousness you try when you've got Freddy Galvis in the two-hole. Not someone who actually knows what to do with the stick in his hand.

[bay_area_phan]

Why wouldn't you walk Stanton?

[MG]

Brown really got a hold of that one. Still waiting for him to show any kind of consistency.

[Cyclic]

Brown needs to go to AAA when the starter gets called up on Saturday.

[Phillies Fan]

Every baseball analyst reviewing highlights over the past 24 hours has said Gwynn's catch was extremely difficult and pretty spectacular, but "bay area phan" is underwhelmed so I guess the debate is over.

[MG]

C'mon Asche. Needed to score on that ball.

Nice job by Gwynn.