Phillies vs. Braves: Series open thread

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[bittel]

Heard on the radio broadcast that Howard has 7 IBBs this year. Knew MG was wrong when he said there hadn't been one for awhile, but that's a decent number for a sub .750 OPS guy.

Also: first time I ever remember being impersonated here. Note to troll: I'm left-wing. Please curate your future fake posts with that in mind. Makes them more convincing. Thx.

[MG]

Reality - Somehow either hits for AVG or Power and an OPS at or above .650.

Nieves came into today at .229/.245/.354 (.599 OPS) in 48 ABs and still think he'll end up closer to that.

There were plenty of those guys available this offseason too including Buck, Suzuki, and B. Pena. Backup catchers who have been worse are J. Molina and Arencibia.

[MG]

Bastardo doesn't even look like the same pitcher a month ago.

Working much quicker and his fastball control and command is a lot better.

[Iceman]

And MG wanted them to pay twice as much for Arencibia, which shows that his 'scouting' of backup catcher talent is absolutely worthless.

Arencibia has a .415 OPS with a -0.8 WAR in just 60 PAs this season.

[RK]

As you ought to know I have been begging them to trade the whole bunch for several years and when they were considerably more valuable. And most of you guys thought I was a troll and should be pleased by the fact that they won 100+ games. Actually I was ridiculed , you all thought there was something left in the tank.
Some of these guys are valuable to some teams and also they have to agree to the trade and I just think Howard might agree to go back home.

[RK]

I also think that even though Utley is at home in Philly he has enough in the tank to go back to the west coast.
I don't think we can get much for anyone else.
But the bottom line is we have to get rid of the whole lot of the front office and that is simply not going to happen soon enough.

[bullit]

byrd is looking spiffy in his knickers.

[MG]

Arencibia got $1.8M. Nieves got $1.125M with some easily-obtainable incentives which will probably put him closer to $1.5M.

Salary difference was negligible. Nieves to his credit too has been consistent defensively and a lot better than I thought he would be.

Just wanted the Phils to acquire a catcher who would be able to start 55-60 G this year and give Chooch a bit more of a rest with closer to 110 GS this year

[bay_area_phan]

RK: You WERE ridiculed because you started saying it in like 2010. And you're still being ridiculed because you're still saying "I told you so," based on the fact that they won 97 and 102 games but didn't win a World Series.

[RK]

PS. when I wrote "we can't get much for anyone else" I meant to exclude the pitching staff. There is certainly value there. But guys like Rollins and Ruiz are not going to fetch much an Brown is just an enigma (great start and promise and now who knows).

[Iceman]

MG- you absolutely said 'I would rather give 2 million to Arencibia than give an MLB deal to Nieves.'

I really don't feel like going back and finding the quote. If you deny it, you're just flat-out lying.

[bullit]

killer slider by the kid.

[RK]

BAP Winning is everything and winning games and getting booted out of the playoffs is not a satisfying experience. And BAP it kept getting worse in the playoffs each year after the WS. Only you and others here failed to read the handwriting on the wall. The team peaked and it was time to make some selective changes, that is what the Yankees and Red Sox do and that is why they keep returning to the WS.
They don't come back with the same team the following year or even when they do if things are not working or if they see an opportunity to make a smart move they take it they don't try to milk the team.
I would rather be the team that won 82-79 and followed up with the WS then the team that won 102 and crashed in the first playoff.

[GBrettfan]

Yeah, MG, Bastardo is looking much more comfortable these days.

[Willard Preacher]

Giles shaping up to be a hell of an 8th inning guy (until eventual closer?). All the more reason that Diekman should get LOOGY action only.

[MG]

Iceman - I did and I still wanted a catcher who would cost a bit more & started more games.

Hoping the Phils might trade for Hanigan or sign a B. Pena and look to use them this year and next with Chooch at C acknowledge that Chooch isn't going to be able to start 125+ G and ideally be more at 110 G or so.

[MG]

Even 110 G is a lot too. Chooch has only done that once in his career - (113 GS in '11).

[MG]

Nice hard fastball with downward movement to great the easy groundball to SS.

[Iceman]

RK is one of the morons I referenced a few days ago that took 2009-2011 for granted because, and only because, they were eliminated in the playoffs.

[Cyclic]

Rupp time...

[bullit]

oh man. here comes rupp.

[Bonehead]

BL jinx bites Wil

[MG]

Cyclic - Yup. Quad pull and Nieves will be 15-day DL shortly.

[GBrettfan]

Well, that sucks. I hope Chooch enjoyed his partial day off.

[clout]

RK may be the only member of the Moronocracy who doesn't understand that anything can happen in a short series.

[Iceman]

Nice job MG, that's your fault.

[RK]

Speaking of morons just tell me what you would prefer a 82-80 and WS or 102-60 and out on the first playoff?
And I would not have traded the whole team, I would have tried or trade for a real third baseman something we did not have and still do not have. And the following year I would have done something else--doing nothing other than trading Lee back and forth was dumb, the team was not improved management decided to run with it until the tires fell off.

Well now they wheels are falling. So now we face a number of years without real chance. Because these guys had no plan on how to keep the magic going.

[bay_area_phan]

"And BAP it kept getting worse in the playoffs each year after the WS. Only you and others here failed to read the handwriting on the wall"

See, that's why you were ridiculed -- and will continue to be ridiculed. Of all the people on Beerleaguer, you are absolutely alone in your belief that, because they happened to lose a particular 7-game series in October, it foretold that they would lose another 7-game series even earlier the next year (even though they had a better record), or a 5-game series even earlier the year after that (though their record was better again).

To quote Billy Beane, "My job is to get us to the playoffs. What happens after that is f*cking luck." But you apparently don't believe that, because you're still bragging how you were right all along.

[RK]

Anything can and does happen in a short series. But let's recall that after the WS we failed to reach the prior year's playoff achievement. If you keep getting progressively worse by losing short series why not do something about it.

Its not just about a short series its also about the manager (who was completely inflexible) and about a team that was no longer primed for a short series because some of the pieces were no longer as good and could and should have been replaced.

[Cyclic]

Party like it's 2011!!

[M. Martinez]

Record with Revere starting: 21-31 for .404
Record with Revere pined: 11-7 for .611

Winning at a 50% higher clip when Revere is benched.

Coincidence?

[RK]

BAP actually we did worse in each playoff after the WS--check it out.

Please don't cite Billy Beane who brilliantly puts teams together with a third of the budget that Philly has. They don't give him the money to solve all the holes. His objective is to put a credible team given the dollars he has.

[MG]

Always sweet to see the Phils sweep the Braves.

Given the pitching matchups, Phils hopefully split in St Louis.

[Cyclic]

This was an awesome series. Great sweep. Keep rolling.

Hope this season gets a lot funner!

[MG]

M. Martinez has turned into my favorite unique poster because of his singular driven focus (posting anti-Revere posts).

[MG]

If this bullpen hadn't been so awful in April, they would be around .500 and things in the NL East would be really interesting right now with 4 teams all within 1-2 games of each other.

[GBrettfan]

I did not realize there was a formula by which one could ensure a WS appearance and/or victory.

Great series sweep of the Braves! On to St. Louis.

1st up: David Buchanan v. Shelby Miller, about whom phillies.com writes:

"After enduring struggles at times this season with his mechanics and focus, Miller has found a rhythm in his last two starts. He followed up his second-career complete game on June 7 with 6 2/3 innings of one-run ball on Saturday."

[bay_area_phan]

RK: You really don't get it, do you? If anything can and does happen in a short series, then why the hell would a team spend its off-season rebuilding the team based on the results of that short series?

Basketball's playoffs are not nearly as random as baseball's, but look at the Spurs. They won their 4th title in 2006-2007. The next year, they lost in the conference championship. The next year, in the first round. The next 4 times, they lost in the playoffs again. Did they trade away Duncan, Parker, & Ginobli on the theory that they hadn't advanced as far as in previous years? No, they kept the same core that was winning 50 games every year on the theory that they were still capable of winning the division & getting a high playoff seed. And the more opportunities you have to get yourself into the playoffs (especially with a high seed), the better your chances to eventually win some championships. You would have had us trade away the whole team while the Phillies were still giving themselves good opportunities to win championships. Hence, the ridicule that is directed at you -- especially when you starting bragging that you were right all along.

[Cyclic]

So.... don't feed trolls... unless it's RK?

[Dickie Thong]

> actually we did worse in each playoff after the WS--check it out.

They lost to the eventual WS winner in each of those years -- check it out.

[bullit]

the flaw in the 2009 team was the bench. yanks had an mvp DH. we had stairs?

[clout]

RK: Even a simpleton knows that a 102-win team is better than an 82-win team.

[RK]

BAP you don't read what I write. I am pointing out that the team got weaker each year management should have gotten to work on it. At the point I was advocating a complete makeover they had stopped being competitive (oh I know you think they still are).
DT: That is hardly consolation to the losers. That could have been us headed to the WS had we won any of those series!

Why are the Yankees and Red Sox always in it, are they in a lousy division? Every one of the teams in that division spends the off year trying to improve their chances.

[Dickie Thong]

The Phillies actually outscored both the Giants in the '10 NLCS and the Cardinals in the '11 NLDS -- check it out.

[clout]

bullit: the Phillies 9th batter in the lineup in the 2009 WS was Ben Francisco, not Stairs.

The Yankees had Hideki Matsui, the Phillies countered with Ben Francisco.

Think about that for a moment.

[clout]

RK: "I am pointing out that the team got weaker each year."

In fact, it got BETTER. More wins = Better.

[bullit]

thanks for straightening me out on that, clout.

[bay_area_phan]

"Speaking of morons just tell me what you would prefer a 82-80 and WS or 102-60 and out on the first playoff?"

I think most people would rather have an 82-80 team which won the WS. I also think most people are intelligent enough to realize that, if their team goes 82-80 and wins the World Series, the World Series win wasn't attributable to some master plan of brilliance by the GM; it was attributable to the good fortune of playing in a terrible division & getting hot at the right time.

Winning or losing a particular short series in October should have absolutely nothing to do with how the GM approaches the next off-season.

[M. Martinez]

"M. Martinez has turned into my favorite unique poster because of his singular driven focus (posting anti-Revere posts)."

Focus trumping versatility.

[bullit]

i think eventually rollins' and utley's uni numbers get retired. not sure if howard's does.

[Iceman]

MM would be MG's favorite "unique" (i.e. moronic) poster. Somehow his posts are full of words and content, yet completely devoid of any meaning or coherent thoughts (like many MG posts). You'd have better luck trying to have an intelligent conversation with a See & Say.

[bullit]

i heard that ruf may be joining the team in st. louis. who goes down to LV? cedeno? tgj?

[Cyclic]

Gets quiet in here after a great game and sweep.

Not much to complain about.

Hope the Astros do a job tonight.

[Cyclic]

Gotta be Cedeno, right?

[Bonehead]

If Skip is now saying that Cesar and Brignac can handle SS, then, yeah.

[Cyclic]

http://articles.mcall.com/2014-06-17/sports/mc-ironpigs-knights-0617-20140617_1_steve-susdorf-ironpigs-cody-asche

"Darin Ruf was in the outfield with a glove during IronPigs batting practice. He has yet to take swings with his injured left wrist."

From yesterday's game notes.

Sounds like he won't be back within 4 games.

[Cyclic]

Asche should be back after tonight's game (I think his LHV stint is only 2 games)

So it will be interesting to see what the bench looks like.

Cedeno
Nieves
Hernandez/Brignac
Altherr
Mayberry

could turn into

Rupp
Ruf
Hernandez
Brignac
Mayberry

Pretty soon

[RK]

BAP I agree with your last comment. My point has been throughout that the Phils could easily identify flaws(we did this daily on this site) that could and should have been fixed through trades. I think most of us on this site agree that a major weakness was CMs management style (in a short series he stayed with ball players regardless of the situation) and the bigger weakness RAJ who by now we all agree is clueless.

[Reality]

Iceman: Also- Kurt Suzuki got almost 3 million from the Twins. No way the Phillies would've even tried to match that.

[bullit]

thanks, Cyclic. sounds like it.

[The Moronocracy]

Split squad Clearwater lineup today. They'll need at least 6 IP and 2 or less runs from Hernandez today to even have a shot to win this game.

Posted by: MG | Wednesday, June 18, 2014 at 11:09 AM

[Cyclic]

Wasn't today a big day for Lee?

I assume since we haven't heard that his left arm exploded that everything is going well?

[bay_area_phan]

RK: Even when the team was winning 102 game, I was all in favor of identifying and fixing flaws. That seems pretty uncontroversial.

As for Cholly . . . it's no secret that I was never a fan. But do I honestly think that, with a better manager, the playoff results in 2009 through 2011 would have turned out better? I doubt it very seriously. Which slumping player would you have wanted him to remove from the lineup in, say, the 2011 NLDS? No matter how bad they may have been slumping, no manager was ever going to remove Utley, Howard, Pence, Vic, Ruiz, Rollins, or even Polanco. Maybe you consider removing Ibanez for Mayberry, but Cholly basically did that when we faced a LH starter in Garcia. So I'm not exactly sure what lineup changes a different manager would have done differently.

We didn't lose the NLCS because of Cholly. We didn't lose because of RAJ's failure to identify weaknesses. We surely didn't lose because you could "see the handwriting on the wall" that the Cardinals were the better team. We lost for the same reason that the Phillies just swept the Braves, and the WhiteSox are about to sweep the Giants: because, in baseball, the worse team very often beats the better team. There is no amount of planning that can prevent this from being true.

[Iceman]

They had a .587 winning percentage in the playoffs (46 games) from 2007-2011. That's right in line with their overall winning percentage over that span. They were successful in the postseason. 6-4 in playoff series.

Basically right along the lines of what a reasonable person should expect. Some of the wins and losses just fell in the wrong places.

RK is a special kind of stupid.

[PLM]

Awh lol yes bench player but will any team carry a spare 2B should of thrown that part in..This sweep just shows how up for grabs the division is at this juncture..

[Dragon]

"1973 Mets went 82-79 and won the NL East."

Why can't us?!

[Cyclic]

26 G, 123 PA, 9 HR, 35 RBI
.368/.512/.695/1.207

Yes, I expect BIG things from Howard this series. Maybe he can get his season OPS back over .800.

[MG]

Does Reality/Moroncracy poster have an issue with schizophrenia and isn't taking their Clozaril as recommended by their physician or psychiatrist?

"Many people who prey on others manifest the Dark Tetrad. The Dark Tetrad is defined as psychopathy, sadism, Machiavellanism and narcissism. And those components are made up of others.

A recent paper argues that Internet trolls seem to fulfill at least three (some fulfill all) of the Dark Tetrad. And sadism seems to be the overriding component."

http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0191886914000324

[MG]

Cholly and the playoffs

- Does Cholly's managerial decisions make a difference in the '09 WS?

Absolutely not. Phils got beat by a better overall, Matsui got hot (and to a lesser degree ARod and Damon), and the Phils didn't have a starting pitcher other than Lee would did squat in the series.

- Does Cholly's managerial decisions make a difference in the '10 NLCS or '11 NLDS?

Possibly in the '10 NLCS where Cholly didn't have a good series managing and Bochy pushed more right buttons especially with his bullpen matchups/pulling starters but that series too was the lack of the Phils not getting a timely hit with RISP.

'11 NLDS is on Lee more than any other singular player/manager. Phils were up 4-0 at home and were well-poised to take a commanding 2-0 lead. Maybe the Cards would have still comeback to win 3 straight but I tend it doubt it.

[Cyclic]

Ryan Howard

2011 thru 282 PA (June 11): .238/.326/.463/.789, 13 HR, 50 RBI, .287 BAbip

2014 thru 292 PA (June 18): .238/.315/.427/.742, 13 HR, 47 RBI, .306 BAbip

2011 June 12 - Rest of season (362 PA):
.265/.362/.508/.870, 20 HR, 66 RBI, .315 BAbip

2011 Final Stats (644 PA):
.253/.346/.488/.835, 33 HR, 116 RBI, .303 BAbip, 126 OPS+, 10th in MVP voting.

[Redburb]

Not surprising that the Beerleaguer sociopath contingent (clout, reality, iceman, moron) , plus other nutjobs, were all home watching the Phillies play on Weds. afternoon. Possibly the worst game thread ever produced.

[Cyclic]

I had fun watching today's game. I was at work, for the record.

[Phillibuster]

Those of us outside the Philadelphia market - who also work on computers - can generally take advantage of MLB.TV, which allows us to stream our games directly to the background of our work.

I can't speak to most other posters, but I certainly take advantage of it.

["Steve Sundorf"]

Im ready for prime time..Lets do this...

[Cyclic]

Someone said Koyie Hill is the likely call up should Nieves need the DL

[Iceman]

Sociopath?

Dick, maybe, but the sociopath label? I dunno about that.

[Unikruk]

Cyclic: thank you for digging up those numbers. There is of course no reason to expect Howard will duplicate that second-half, but I do have hope that he may be in the middle of an archetypal Howard season, which is to say his numbers rise with the temperature.

If he could play a full season at 120 OPS+, the complaining about his terrible contract would likely cool to a simmer.

[Phillibuster]

And hey, if the 'Stros can beat the Nats today, we'll only be 4 games out of first.

And, while the Cubs clubbed us for 2 of 3, they just did the same to the Marlins (and only lost 5-4 in the other game). The Cards, meanwhile, had a nice 5-game win-streak going (prior to losing to the Mets today), but have been pretty schizophrenic for a 39-33 team. If we get a good outing from Burnett, I can see us splitting the series (assuming Cole remains "Good Cole").

[Phillibuster]

8 straight at home against the Fish and bravos could be pretty nice too...

Or it could be absolutely terrible. Tough to say with this division.

[Bonehead]

Our Phils have had plenty of frustrating, ugly, infuriating losses in the last couple years; but Sunday's 0-3 vs. Cubs is really sticking in my craw.

[Rally Red '67]

b_a_p - Strongly disagree with your point of view; the ultimate manifestation of your line of reasoning is that professional baseball is not a meritocracy. It most certainly is - teams with younger, better and hungrier players invariably win more often.

I can't really say about '09 and '10, but in 2011, Tony La Russa had his players flat out convinced they could not lose. Oh, yea - Chris Carpenter could pitch a little, too but by and large it appeared that Cardinals team was destined to win.

The Philies were a bit disheveled at seasons end - didn't they lose 8 straight games in September? Ryan Howard's ankle was ready to go, and Chase Utley's knees did not have the benefit of his upgraded training. Hunter Pence played well, but it appeared he was more of a piece of a puzzle than one who could carry a team.

Ultimately, RK's view that the Phillies progressively earlier playoff exits after '08 has some merit. Wear and tear on their big $$ stars, and La Russa's magic was more than they could stand in 2011. Perhaps a fiery Jayson Werth and a properly treated Ryan Howard could have tipped the scales, but who knows?

All we do know is that 3 progressively earlier playoff exits occurred from '09 through '11. And aside from adding pitchers by the name of Doc and Cliff - and the brilliant Roy Oswalt in '10 - not much was done to bolster the everyday lineup.

[Cyclic]

Exactly, Uni. I was surprised to see how close in line this year was to his last good season (to this point).

[Cyclic]

http://www.csnphilly.com/baseball-philadelphia-phillies/nieves-tweaks-quad-mayberry-drawing-attention

"Revere’s status for Thursday night’s game in St. Louis won’t be known until closer to game time. Cliff Lee continues to recover from an elbow strain and will likely throw a bullpen session or two during the four days in St. Louis, and third baseman Cody Asche could be activated from the disabled list in the coming days while the team is in St. Louis."

[bittel]

Sociopath?

Dick, maybe,

Maybe?

[Phillibuster]

Rally Red: BAP's line of reasoning isn't that baseball isn't a meritocracy, it's that a short series - while tremendously important to determine who wins the World Series - really isn't a great judge of which team is better overall.

Over enough short series, yes, the better team will probably win more of them. However, much like John Mayberry Jr. can have a .901 OPS over 86 PAs, it's entirely possible for lesser teams to win 3 out of 5 games. That doesn't mean they were the better team overall, but they did manage to play better (as a team) at the right time.

The view that the Phillies exited the playoffs earlier has merit because it's what happened. The view that their earlier exits indicated a team that was becoming significantly more flawed each season is the part that doesn't have any merit. The team kept doing better and better over the larger sample size (162 games), regardless of how the smaller sample size (5 games or 7 games) turned out.

If all it took to win the playoffs was getting your team psyched up to an obscene degree, all teams would hire cult founders as managers. The whole "younger and hungrier" argument doesn't hold much water with me either, because there is no baseball player alive who doesn't want to win the World Series every year. That applies to a 50-year-old Jamie Moyer as much as a 19-year-old Mike Trout.

I also find it difficult to wrap my head around "aside from adding 3 of the best starting pitchers in baseball, not much was done to improve the team." We had the best record in the game 3 years running, improving on our previous win total each year. That doesn't necessarily mean that we were getting drastically better overall each year, but it does imply that whatever steps were being taken were yielding positive results. Everybody knew that it was mortgaging the future to get those results, but that had nothing to do with how good those results were - and they were phenomenal.

[GBrettfan]

Jim Salisbury ‏@JSalisburyCSN 1h
Nieves tweaks quad; Mayberry drawing attention? http://bit.ly/1pjkAbA

* Nieves felt something in his quad "pop" but still hopes to avoid DL.

* Red Sox & Yankees could be interested in Mayberry

* Revere's status for tomorrow's game won't be known 'til closer to game time.

* Lee will probably throw another BP or two while in St. Louis; Asche may be activated during the series.

[GBrettfan]

Good post, Phillibuster.

[bittel]

Random thoughts:

--play of the game was Byrd's hustling up the 1B line to beat out that swinging bunt. You forget that he can run (SB of 3rd yesterday, etc.)

--Is Utley hurt? He's been pretty terrible and virtually entirely lacking in power.

--As good as the bullpen has been, it may get even better. Giles has barely been integrated, Martin isn't even up yet, and the detritus is completely gone. Assuming Martin can pitch (big if) and the second half being poorer for Papelbon than the first, Pap could get traded with the Phils experiencing only marginal dropoff in bullpen quality.

--Think Brignac is due for his reversion, right in time for Asche's reinsertion at 3B. Don't want to see Brown benched while he's showing first signs of life.

[bittel]

thx for updates, GB.

What will Mayberry bring? He's cheap and currently a good stick.

[Cyclic]

Who is the backup CF if Mayberry is traded?

[bittel]

Byrd? Hernandez? If Mayberry goes, Altherr gets recalled?

[Cyclic]

Martin is up. And De Fratus (detritus) isn't gone.

[GBrettfan]

De Fratus hasn't been pitching like detritus. I say, let him stay.

* * * * *

Backup CF if Mayberry is traded = no good option. So I figure the Phillies would feel they were trading the present depth for future depth, and crossing their fingers that none of the three OF starters will go down for long with an injury - or will be willing to throw in the towel on this sesason should that happen.

[bittel]

My mistake on Martin. I don't think DeFratus is garbage. He's vastly superior to the flotsam known as Aumont, Garcia, Jimenez, Manship, and Durbin.

DeFratus
Giles
Martin
Bastardo
Hollands
Diekman
Papelbon

That's pretty darn good.

[Reality]

Yeah the Phillies lost in 2011 because laRussa's guys wanted it more...just silly.

Also MG- I notice you didn't have a response to the Kurt Suzuki thing. You just gave a complete red herring. I know from you that means I had a valid point.

[Bonehead]

If we all agree that the window is closed and that we should be selling any asset of value if the deal is good; then, having a proper 2014 backup CF is not a big worry.

[bittel]

The timing is rather poor, but it's time Gwynn Jr. was sent packing. Everyone knows it. Ruf, Altherr and whoever Mayberry brings, in exchange for Mayberry and Gwynn Jr. is a net positive this year and beyond.

[Jake]

The Houston Phillies are up 4-2 in 6th. Josh Zeid on the bump.

[MG]

Suzuki signed with the Twins with the expectation of being a possible backup catcher and how did that change what I said? He is getting $3M and not being paid anywhere close to what a FA starter at catcher would normally expect.

[MG]

Suzuki is making $2.75M and was the #8 highest paid AAV FA catcher last season.