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[Meyer]

Greetings fellow Earthling.

[Willard Preacher]

JW, you lovable son of a bitch!...

A new thread, dead in the heart of a time when us BL degenerates need BL the most.

Thank you sir, and keep the tweets coming.

[Cyclic]

We really have to watch Galvis start at SS every game now?

[Juums]

Up is down, left is right, cats and dogs are living in peace and harmony, Ryan Howard's contract is valuable, etc.

[bay_area_phan]

The new thread even awakened Cyclic from his hibernation.

[Cyclic]

@Beerleaguer If the #Marlins can upgrade from Garrett Jones at 1B, as they intend, they're a playoff team. Here's depth chart: http://atmlb.com/13dfIOu

~~~

NOTE: Do NOT look at the Phillies depth chart. It's insanely depressing.

[Cyclic]

I been lurkin, bap. I been lurkin.

I still learn more about the Phillies from the BL comments than anywhere else. It's comforting.

[bay_area_phan]

"Up is down, left is right, cats and dogs are living in peace and harmony, Ryan Howard's contract is valuable, etc."

So, continuing with that line of logic, shall we expect Freddy Galvis to win the National League batting crown, Ben Revere to win the homerun title, and Andrew Oliver & Phillippe Aumont to find pinpoint control?

[Juums]

BAP:
No. The ultimate conclusion of all of this is that Michael Martinez is going to become an inner-circle Hall of Famer.

This is what you've done by making a new post, Weitzel. You're sending Mini-Mart to Cooperstown.

[Willard Preacher]

Re: JW's tweet about Eflin's change up, let's just hang on to Hamels...

[ColonelTom]

John Sickels on the Phils' Rule 5 picks:

9. Philadelphia Phillies, Odubel Herrera, 2B, Rangers: Age 22, from Venezuela, hit .315/.333/.388 with 21 steals in 479 at-bats split between High-A and Double-A. In most systems Herrera would have been protected, but he was surplus behind flashier players with better gloves in Texas. He is a career .294/.354/.377 hitter in six minor league seasons. His bat is effective but shaky defense limits him to second base and even there he looks like a liability at times. He can hit though.

31. Philadelphia Phillies: Andrew Oliver, LHP, Pirates: Age 27, second round pick by the Detroit Tigers in 2009 from Oklahoma State University, posted 2.53 ERA with 85/47 K/BB in 64 innings in Triple-A for the Pirates this year. Oliver has a terrific arm but horrible command and shaky secondaries moved him to the bullpen this year after four years as an enigmatic minor league starter. He still throws hard and still has trouble finding the strike zone.

[clout]

The notion (from Stark I believe) that Herrera can start in CF at the MLB level is pretty amusing.

[Dickie Thong]

Much like Rollins being traded, it makes me a little sad to say goodbye to our longest tenured BL thread.

[clout]

I'm quite pleased with what they got for Rollins. Just because the Marlins GM is a bonehead doesn't mean there are other boneheads out there who'd give up a Heaney-quality prospect for J-Roll.

Eflin is a pitch-to-contact guy who was young for the league and put up good numbers considering that Lake Elsinore is like the moon. Mini-Mart would post a .350, 30 HR line there. It's the place that convinced BL posters that Tyson Gillies would be a star. Anyway, Eflin projects as a #4 innings-eater type. OK fastball, great changeup.

Windle strikes me as a classic college-pitcher with polish but just average stuff. Ceiling is probably as a middle reliever.

[clout]

I could see Eflin having an Omar Daal kind of career: 11 years, career ERA+ of 95, a 16-win season.

[PLM]

Oliver sounds just perfect for us...

[LorecorE]

clout: "just because the Marlins GM is a bonehead doesn't mean there are other boneheads out there who'd give up a Heaney-quality prospect for J-Roll."

The Dodgers are who sent Heaney to the Angels.

I know Rollins wasn't going to bring back that type of return, I just have a hard time thinking Eflin and Windle have enough upside to be considered a help to the future. SS play is pretty scarce in this league, I thought he should be worthy of a higher ceiling player.

[MG]

Did the Phils actually send any cash to the Dodgers then in the JRoll trade?

[jbird]

I'm so excited!

[CJ]

Sad to see J-Roll go... one of my favorite all-time Phillies. I'm surprised we got as much as we did for him. Omar Daal is probably an optimistic comp, but not unreasonable.

[PLM]

JMJ sighting..

[Willard Preacher]

If GTown Dave posts a comment today, I'm going to go ahead and call it the best day the Phillies have had in 2014.

[Juums]

Amidst all of the hubbub, the fact that the Mets have given JMJ an MLB deal almost slipped through the cracks. Not to worry, though. I've already got his spot in the Phillie-Killer Hall of Fame prepared.

[clout]

LorecorE: Marlins trade was also bad. Heaney far more valuable than Gordon, Haren & Rojas.

[MG]

Obtain ~$13M in salary relief and get two middling starting prospects with limited ceilings and a fringe LHP relief prospect.

Probably where they need to be in terms of salary but still like to see them add a veteran SP on a 1-year deal. Really liked C. Lewis but he is gone. Morrow on a 1-year deal especially if he ends up in the bullpen possibly

[clout]

Marlins lineup:
Gordon 2B
Yelich LF
Stanton RF
McGehee 3B
Ozuna CF
Jones 1B
Saltalamacchia C
Hechavarria SS

If they upgrade from Jones at 1B, it's a pretty good lineup.

SP: Latos, Alvarez, Haren, Cosart, Eovaldi/Fernandez.

RP: Crow, Dunn, Ramos, Hand.

CL: Cishek.

[limoguy]

Count me in as ok with the Rollins deal if Elfin is part of it.

[Willard Preacher]

clout, no doubt that's a formidable squad (and heads and shoulders better than the Phils). It will be interesting to see if they stay with it. The Stanton deal may prove to be a turning point for a MIA team now investing in the on the field product, but we've seen that before (Reyes, et al), only to be shown the eventual "fire sale version 4 (or whatever)."

[limoguy]

The San Diego version of Beerleaguer is calling the Matt Kemp deal 'a particularly rotten trade.'

http://padrespublic.com/sacrifice-bunt/a-particularly-rotten-trade/

[Willard Preacher]

limoguy, you mean that there are people that actually root for the San Diego Padres to the extent that they can field a blog? Who knew?

[CJ]

Also... I didn't hate the first Rule 5 pick we made today, but CF? Really? Seems like a stretch.

The second Rule 5 pick? Can't see the point.

[Meyer]

Funny, I also thought of GTown Dave and a few others from earlier days. This day has a refreshing air to it, almost equal and opposite to Howard in a heap down the 1B line.

[MG]

Why does every article that is a knockoff of what FanGraphs produces talking about 'surplus value' in regards to every trade/FA/etc as if these transactions exist solely in a vacuum?

[GTown_Dave]

If GTown Dave posts a comment today, I'm going to go ahead and call it the best day the Phillies have had in 2014.

I believe this post, more than anything else, demonstrates just how far the Phillies have fallen.

[bay_area_phan]

"I believe this post, more than anything else, demonstrates just how far the Phillies have fallen."

You are being humble. What it demonstrates is your iconic status at Beerleaguer. Welcome back. Now, if only Iceman would show up and call you names, we'd practically have the whole gang back together.

[GBrettfan]

Thanks for popping in, GTown. It's a BL reunion!

[jbird]

I'd love to see the Phillies use their cost savings on traded veterans for the Colby Rasmus & Brandon Morrows of the world. damaged goods with big upsides. Most likely though, that money will go to equity payouts to ownership.

[Willard Preacher]

Best. Beerleaguer. Day. Ever.

(okay, in the last 5 years, anyway)

[Klaus]

Let this reunion be a kind of wake for J-Roll (tips coffee mug slightly, allowing a few drops of TJ's Block Red shiraz to hit the floor).

[Account Deleted]

Thank the dear Lord for locked down handles!! Post more, GTown... it is a lot of fun here since the site's locked down. BTW, your Twitter site is pretty good - share some of it here!

Back to reality. TGP nearly had a collective meltdown when rumors of the Utley trade were hot. I had to listen a bit to WIP today as I was glued to a set of screens that block general internet access. The JRoll audio highlights were priceless - Harry Kalas' call of Rollins first ML hit (a triple!) gave me chills.

[Account Deleted]

"The notion (from Stark I believe) that Herrera can start in CF at the MLB level is pretty amusing."

Come now, Clout. Are the 2015 Phillies really at "the MLB level"?

[Phillibuster]

Red Sox rotation still looks pretty rotten, honestly. Porcello's an upgrade, but if he's your #1 in Fenway then those Yankees/Red Sox games will hit 6 hours more often than 4 this year.

They probably feel a little more secure now, but I'm sure they'd much prefer Hamels to anchor that thing. Especially since they have zero lefty starters right now.

[rob]

Since this is a celebration of days/people gone by, my old handle was Oogie Urbina. I prefer my real 1st name now. I actually thought the return for Fausto was better than today's. Windle probably won't see CBP unless he's on a tour. Eflin has 3-4 starter upside. Color me uninspired.

[The Truth Injection]

Oh boy! GTown and Will S are back

The nonsense floodgates are opened

[PLM]

Where the Revere haters be?

[nonamePHame]

getting the gang back together! Where is Revere going exactly? I really like the Rollins trade if its Elfin and Windle. That is a solid return for 1 year of a 36 yo SS, granted he is probably still top 5 in the league at his position. We need the return more than we need him right now!

[Phillibuster]

Revere is going somewhere?

[Phillibuster]

Also, can I say how amusing I find it that, less than 5 hours after JW tweeted about the Beerleaguer consensus being that the Rollins trade was a good one, we get as many new arrivals that say it was terrible?

If there's one thing we know, it's that the BL consensus is that there is no BL consensus. And even if there were, it has to be wrong.

[dragon]

Rollins in Dodger blue, that's going to take some getting used to.

[Fatalotti]

Reunion? Is there cake? Can I have some? Please?

[Chung Russo]

If I might continue something from the previous page, BAP states that the reason that K.Simon, D.Francisco, and P.Lavin were selected by other teams partly because of only having 40 man roster spots to protect them.. Actually they had 78 roster spots to protect them on. They had the MLB 40 man roster and the AAA 38 man roster, as they were taken in the minor league portion of the Rule 5 draft. And only players with the time in service to be selected in the Rule 5 Draft needed to be protected on any roster. I did not look, but I am fairly certain they could have, at least , protected every eligible player on either the MLB, or AAA roster, as most every team could most every year.
So, they simply decided to put these players up for sale, and, I believe they got 25,000 a piece for them. So, with the purported player shortage in the minor league system, why do they put guys deemed worthy of selection by other teams on the discard pile? I have seen nothing that said these guys were malcontents. Is this a mountain out of a molehill?

[Phillibuster]

Chung: They got $50K a piece. If the selecting teams don't keep them on the 25-man for the full year, they must be offered back for $25K per (so, net gain of $25K).

I suppose a question would be: how many of those guys do you believe will spend 162 games on the 25-man roster?

[Account Deleted]

This may or may not make sense. However, I just realized Jimmy Rollins was my favorite Phillie. Jimmy Rollins took 110 years of largely futile baseball and brought us all into the light. After establishing himself as a premier NL shortstop - God forbid, I bring this up, 'cause it was part of the brilliance of Gillick's Abreu-centric dump - Jimmy became the heart and soul of the winning attitude that defined the Philadelphia Phillies.

Could Chase Utley have "jump-started" that '05 team - just missing a WC spot - into the dynamo evolving into the '08 Champions? Could Ryan Howard have, with all his thunderous lumber? Could Cole Hamels have; with his reserve; his sense of place?

I don't believe any of those players could perform what Jimmy did from 2006 on. Who else had the righteous arrogance? The incredible swagger? The fearless plod into the media nuthouse to announce in '07: "We're the team to beat."? Jimmy Rollins was incredibly good at baseball. What broke him out from the pack was his supreme confidence; his sense of the pulse of the game he played.

What the hell am I talking about, you might be saying? it's called leadership, friends. Jimmy had it; with his charm, charisma and incandescent smile he used it; and when he knew that it made not a whit of difference, he moved on.

God bless James Calvin Rollins.

[Fatalotti]

Rally Red, great post! Jimmy is a player the likes of which Phillies fans may never see again. He will be sorely missed.

[bay_area_phan]

I think calling it a molehill is assigning it too much importance. It's more like a mountain out of an ant hill.

I don't know how many roster spots you get or what the service time rules are for stashing minor league players. But the number is finite (you say it's 38 & I have no reason to doubt that). By definition, people will be left out. And, by definition, other teams will deem some of the left-out players worthy of selection. That is the whole point of the Rule 5 draft. Just because some other team felt it was worth a $25K flier to sign one of our minor league players does not mean it was a mistake not to protect that guy. For one thing, scouts can have widely different opinions about prospects -- especially when you're dealing in the realm of Rule 5 prospects, who are, to a man, the longest of long shots. Second, we can't even evaluate if it was a mistake to leave a guy unprotected unless we know the identify of the 38 players we DID protect.

Peter Lavin is a 26-year old 20th round pick, who didn't exactly rake at AA despite being exceedingly old for the league. Kyle Simon is a dime-a-dozen swingman. Francisco is a project who was converted to pitcher only a couple years ago and had a 7.44 ERA in low A ball this year.

Really, I wouldn't sweat this. There are many, many reasons to be down on the Phillies' management. Failing to protect Peter Lavin, Devli Francisco & Kyle Simon isn't one of them.

[Account Deleted]

Fata - much appreciated! Go Phils. Sooner than later! Hope springs eternal...

[BobbyD]

Wow. Gave up on this site with the last thread, but had to check to see if there was any activity with the Rollins trade, etc. And sure enough a new thread. Keep it going.

[GBrettfan]

Rally Red, I loved your post on Rollins, too. You and Fata have written awesome posts about him.

[Tal Venada]

If anyone has any interest, here is "Storyline: Connecting Phillies’ Dots."

http://isportsweb.com/2014/12/11/storyline-connecting-phillies-dots/

Again, thanks for reading.

[epicurean]

I, for one, am certainly glad to have that dizzying pace in my rear-view mirror.

[dragon]

Just hope that when this team finds itself back in contention some day that it has the type of leadership - "we're the team to beat" - that Rollins provided during the winning years.

[Phillibuster]

Hopefully Crawford and Quinn can bring a bit of that, and Utley may step up a bit too - he's already been talking more to the media and (purportedly) his teammates as well in recent years.

[MG]

http://www.complex.com/sports/2014/12/manny-ramirez-strike-out-golf-course

I am definitely saying Manny went down swinging and whiffing on the 3rd swing.

[jbird]

Manny striking out...That brings back great memories.

[Account Deleted]

From the NY Times:

Dodgers’ Transformation Started With Front Office

His general manager, Farhan Zaidi, was Billy Beane’s assistant in Oakland until going to the Dodgers in November...

I've been beating the Zaidi drum for ages - what better FO talent to direct a ground-up rebuild of a team with money? Surely - after the dead money purge has been completed - the Phils' operating budget exceeds Oakland's.

Maybe my zeal for Gillick is misplaced. Surely Zaidi - a younger man who's worked side by side with Beane knows all there is to know about Sabre-smart baseball. And he's snagged by the bleepin' Dodgers.

The rebuild has begun. Second-guessing myself, I hope like hell Gillick's up to the task. If he even has authority.

God, is this team a mess.

[Chung Russo]

Phillibuster, BAP, et. al.

Just to clear up some technicalities and explore some stuff:
those 3 players were not selected in the MLB portion of the Rule 5 draft, they were selected in the minor league portion. According to today's "paper" (Gelb, I believe) they received 12,000 dollars each for a total of 36,000 dollars. I erroneously said 25,000 dollars apiece , before.
The acquiring team is under no obligation to keep them at any level or to return them at any time.
The rules on roster limits for the Rule 5 draft are:
MLB 40 man
AAA 38 man
AA 37 man
The players Phillies lost were really selected by the other teams AAA squad off of the Phillies AA (Reading) roster.

I believe if you check out the total number of players with the requisite service time in the entire organization, it will be far less than 78 (MLB and AAA combined) .
So, I say there would not be a finite number of spots, but, they could have protected whoever they wanted.
So, simply they put them up for sale. Regardless if they are legitimate MLB prospects or not, it seems they will need minor league players and not just prospects, and, remember, other teams wanted them.
So, given the purported need for players in Philly's minor league system, and the established fact that other teams deemed them
worthy of a minor league spot, the question is:
WHY?

[Chung Russo]

Re: the Friedman/Zaidi reference above:

If you notice the results of the minor league portion of the Rule 5 draft, you might see that the Friedman/Zaidi combination made 4 selections to take free shots at free and clear players, including one Peter Lavin. eh?, eh?

[bay_area_phan]

Chung: I guess you'd have to ask the Phillies why they reserved the players they did. But this seems a rather abstract discussion since we don't even know who those players were. How can we say that it was a mistake not to protect, say, Kyle Simon when we don't know the guys they protected in his stead?

But, like I said, the fact that other teams deemed these guys worthy of a minor league spot is NOT evidence that the Phillies screwed up. Any team which participates in the Rule 5 draft has, by definition, deemed another team's unprotected player worthy of a major or minor league roster spot. And, since 99% of these guys never go on to have meaningful major league careers, I think it's fair to say that, if any team made a mistake in its talent assessment, it's usually the team that fancied the guy enough to select him in the Rule 5 draft. With the minor league phase of the draft, that 99% increases to about 99.99%.

[bay_area_phan]

And, if the Phillies did have the roster space, couldn't this simply be a case of the team giving up on these guys? If a team waives a player off its major league roster, he goes on the waiver wire & some other team very often picks him up. Does that mean it was a mistake to waive him? It would by your reasoning.

[Conway Twitty]

Will the highlight of the 2015 season be Jimmy's return, or Cole vs. Cliff on Opening Day?

[LorecorE]

After reflecting a little bit, I'm softening my stance on the Rollins trade. I think the buzz and excitement of that entire day got my hopes up too high. First it was Zach Lee, then it was a package with Utley, then it was a package with Hamels, then it was getting players from Miami for Dee Gordon, then it was the getting the Padres haul for Kemp, and so on and so on.

Throw in the other trades and names flying around that nite, and Eflin/Windle just couldn't compete.

The end of the day, we moved one of our veterans on the end of his deal for two prospects with relatively good chances to pitch in the MLB one day in some capacity. Thats something I've been advocating for awhile now, so I'll take my own advice I gave to bap/MG and not whine about it once something I campaigned for finally happens just because it wasn't perfect.

[Juums]

Lorecore:
That's where I'm at, though I was never really down on the return. (As I'm a fan of stockpiling mid-rotation best-case upside, BOR/middle relief-realistic-ceiling types.) Given the ardor that was gone through to learn the returns, it always felt like something big was going to happen, and to learn that Rollins' "only" brought back a pair of fringy OrgTop10 guys was a disappointment.

Had events unfolded as they should've, with the Rollins trade being announced as a leg in a three-team Grandal-for-Kemp swap, there would have been far less drama about it.

[Tal Venada]

Cubs like Ben Revere and Phils interested in Travis Wood.

[Juums]

Got a source of any kind, Tal, or is this just more click-bait?

[rob]

Juims- tht Travis wood rumor comes fromRotoworld vis Gotdon Wittmayet Chicago Sun-Times. Also Phols looking at Wellington Castillo.

[rob]

Wow wtf did I just type? Wood/ Castillo interest the Phils while the Cubs like Revere acc to Chi beat writer

[Juums]

The previous I'd seen from Wittenmeyer was just his speculating that Benji could be a guy the Phils could offer up. It wouldn't surprise me at all if the Phils traded Benji for Travis Wood, because why do we need any position players? I mean, with guys like Odubel Herrera and Aaron Altherr waiting in the wings, Benji's clearly expendable.

I know we need MLB-pitching depth and Wood was a guy I liked as buy-low rotation filler when he was a non-tender candidate. But if you're going to get rid of Benji, at least turn him into something that helps the future rather than just plugs an MiLB FA/nontender/scrap heap reclamation-fillable hole.

[J. Weitzel]

This:

"The Phillies’ total career WAR among all drafted players from 2004 through 2014 is only 27.8 compared to a league average of 100.0. This is not just league-worst, it is less than half of the second-worst Blue Jays at 60.5."

[bay_area_phan]

WTF is there to like about Travis Wood? He's only under contract for 2 more years & he's the epitome of mediocrity. Trading Revere for Travis Wood would be an absolute travesty.

Also, do the Phillies like anyone who isn't a pitcher? Because it seems like the only guys they target are pitchers -- and always back-of-the-rotation guys at that. Do they aspire to field a team comprised of 5 back-of-the-rotation starters & the worst starting 8 in the history of baseball?

[J. Weitzel]

Link to the quote I just referenced.

http://www.hardballtimes.com/extending-ryan-howard-is-not-what-killed-the-phillies/

[Juums]

BAP:
That he is the epitome of mediocrity, doesn't have a lot of control left, and was horrid last year are exactly what there is to like. He's a guy you can get without giving away much because he's going to make way too much in arbitration and he's got enough potential upside that an organization which needs warm bodies could take a flyer on him.

But yeah, I absolutely agree. Benji is no great prize, but he's our starting CF and is still somewhere between the third and fourth best OF on a contending team's depth chart. While it makes a certain amount of sense to trade two guys with two years of control left, if the Phils are going to move Benji, you need to get future value for him. Which Travis Wood -- or any other similarly situated arb-2/3 guy -- does not provide.

[Willard Preacher]

"Do they aspire to field a team comprised of 5 back-of-the-rotation starters & the worst starting 8 in the history of baseball?"

We'll know for sure once Kyle Kendrick's FA status is settled, but yeah...

[Willard Preacher]

JW, thanks for the link. Interesting take on things, but it's very hard to argue that the Howard trade didn't have a direct deleterious impact on this team's ability to develop many more young talented players.

I agree that the "win now" moves are just as big an impact on the current state of the team, but without that contract tying up so much $, and the dynamic that BAP often alludes to (Howard's spot leading to his auto-insertion into the cleanup spot, thereby having a domino effect on the rest of the lineup), there's no ability to react and "retool" as opposed to the current rebuild dynamic (and look what that contract does now versus what it did while he was injured).

As long as Howard is under that contract, the team is financially hindered, but even more so they lose any ability to retool "on the fly." This is why even releasing him only has a minor impact, as the $ is still tied up. However, I don't discount all those secondary impacts (lineup construction, inevitable late game LOOGY moves, "blocking" even mediocre but better players, etc.).

I'm just taking issue with the premise of that article downplaying the effect of that contract. I'll agree that it's definitely not the only factor in play, but even mentioning the litany of other factors doesn't discount that it's absolutely an albatross, and continues to hinder even the current rebuild effort.

But, yeah, that WAR stat is effing eye opening and downright disgusting when this team has lived on a "as long as these guys can stay healthy" mantra for the last few years.

[GTown_Dave]

I couldn't agree more w/ that Hardball Times piece if I had written it myself.

[LorecorE]

Very good article JW references about how the Phillies went from #1 in the MLB during their late 90's early 00's drafts in terms of WAR produced, to incredibly so far in dead last from 04-forward.

[Willard Preacher]

Here's another way to think of it. While even MVP caliber Ryan Howard the last three years would likely not have improved the team enough to playoff caliber, a much better team that didn't have the burden of "proving out" the contract would have recognized these other shortfalls and been able to address them much more quickly and even longer term than the "rope" they have now.

For instance, it's noted that a lack of production from young players is actually just as much, if not more, of a problem over the last three years. It's hard to argue that (and we actually even discussed over the last few days about how player development has yielded nothing going back much further than that even...). But, if you don't have the drag of $225M tied up over the life of the Howard contract (say nothing of the regressing talent of Howard himself), you have a hell of a lot more options to acquire young talent to improve in that arena. When you have some sort of leverage (i.e. not trying to dump bad contracts to aging players tying up opportunities), you'd be amazed at how much easier it is to acquire younger talent that is much more likely to produce (Phillies player development competency aside). Just ask the Dodgers or Red Sox, who have been able to "retool" as opposed to having to "wait out" bad contracts.

[Willard Preacher]

But I sure as hell won't argue that the Phillies strategy of drafting "Toolsy McToolshed" hasn't finally bitten them in the ass in an almost unrecoverable way...

Basically, it's a perfect sh8t storm that's been allowed to fester "under the radar" while key players were still in their prime. Now that they're approaching the twilight of their careers, here we are.

[rob]

Just a thought. I understand why CHI would trade Wood for Revere. but would they include Castillo as well? That MAY make it more digestible. Cubs are going to sign Lester's caddy, David Ross. The only thing that makes me think this is purely speculation is that Revere is not the type of player Epstien/hoyer like. Ben is allergic to the walk

[LorecorE]

I would do a Revere/Wellington swap well before one for Wood.

As already stated, Wood borders on nontender status, there's 0 trade value there.

I'm not sure I'd do either however, I'm more optimistic on Revere than most.

[Willard Preacher]

I'm one of Benji's biggest detractors and "haters" and even I wouldn't trade Revere for Wood without quite a bit more thrown into the mix.

The Phillies should be making trades for one of two reasons:
- stock pile young talent, even if just a calculated risk or borderline gamble - Wood doesn't fit this bill
- free up salary to invest in younger (slightly more proven/higher ceiling) - Revere's salary does not fit this bill

Basically, unless the trade can have some sort of payoff in that 2017 time frame, it's not worth the Phillies' time.

[Juums]

Benji for Welington Castillo and Travis Wood would have been the type of move that fit the zeitgeist of last off-season: A move to avoid big contracts will still putting a vaguely presentable product on the field which, if everything broke right, might compete for a Wild Card spot. As everything the Phils have done so far this off-season indicates they've accepted they're going to be bad for a couple of years, Castillo doesn't really add much to the mix, as he's only got three years of control left and is already older than a rebuilding time would like. (He's closer to 28 than 27.)

Castillo wouldn't be a bad piece, but he probably walks in free agency by the time The Next Good Phillies Team is actually a reality. One would think if the Phils really were looking at the future, they'd try to extract an OrgTop10 guy for Benji. (Though, given how deep the Cubs system is, it'd probably be an OrgTop20. Prying loose McKinney or Vogelbach is almost certainly too much to hope for from Benji.)

[MG]

This guy's comment nails it on the

"The logic makes total sense: the best picks to find talent easily are the first five picks or so, and the best way to ensure you get such a pick is to crash and burn the talent on the 25-man roster. You do that by trading away all your best players to get prospects for your team’s rebirth and not spending much on free agent add-ons. You lose a lot and then get a chance to shoot fish in a barrel, while everyone else is fishing in the lake. I’ve been calling this the Phoenix Rebuilding strategy for ten years now and it seems like teams are being copycats of each other now, as this tactic has been spreading.

It would be great to see you do a comprehensive study on the draft, I’ve not seen anyone do that yet, and I loved your work with free agency and trading, which showed that teams know what they are giving away and what they are keeping, among others."

This guy's comment nails it and at this point this is no reason the Phils shouldn't move Byrd this offseason & take what they can get while he a bit more value.

Phils should explore more Utley & even Chooch too. The only exception would to hold on Hamels and see if he gets you a better deal at the trade deadline.

Phils should use some of the money free up to gamble on a 1-yr deal for a veteran starter looking to rebound to round out the rotation a bit more this year and sign a stopgap middle utility infielder potentially.

[MG]

Matt Schwartz aricle

[bay_area_phan]

For sure, the Phillies' terrible drafts have been the single biggest reason for their demise. The Howard contract has been a factor, for reasons laid out by WP. But I agree with the article's premise that the demise would have happened anyhow. You can;'t go a full decade without drafting a single plus everyday player or starting pitcher, and expect to remain relevant.

On the other hand, I would argue that, as of today's date, the Howard contract is the single biggest impediment to their turnaround. The Phillies desperately need offense & 1st base is one of the few positions (arguably the only NL position), where you have the luxury of just finding a bat, without having to worry much about what he brings, or doesn't bring, defensively. As long as Howard's here, the Phillies are never going to look for that big bat who can only play 1st base. And if, by chance, they should happen to find someone who might be that guy, they're never going to give him the chance to prove it -- as we've already seen with Ruf (and for the record, I am pretty bearish on Ruf, but think he deserves the chance to prove me wrong). In short, being locked into Ryan Howard greatly diminishes the Phillies' chances of finding a big bat. They already backed off Tomas, supposedly because they didn't like his defense. If their explanation is genuine, and they truly liked Tomas's bat but not his defense, then the place to play him was 1st base. But they can't do it because of Howard.

Ryan Howard wasn't the biggest reason they're in this situation, but he's the biggest impediment to getting out of it.

[MG]

If the Phils don't want to move salary because it is self-defeating and they don't get prospects, then they just play their way through the next two with Papelbon and Howard.

Both will be off the books and possibly move trade candidates at the '16 deadline.

I'm sure they will try and move Lee at the deadline this year.

If the Phils are going to stuck, then suck hard enough to get a Top 5 pick and free up some payroll to make a run at a foreign player or two. Increasingly optimistic they contend in '17 under any circumstances though.

Hole problem with this though is that they have a rudderless FO. It is far and away the biggest issue looming over the club and not remedying it this offseason is likely I bet to really haunt this team for another year.

[MG]

Bigger issue than Howard's contract was investing heavily in starting free agent pitching.

Halladay crumbling so quickly and essentially being a worthless starting pitcher after '11 had a far bigger impact on this club's fortunes than Howard.

Also not being able to trade aging veterans and hitting on a single prospect from either the Lee/Pence trades.

If they had gotten one solid player out of each, this team wouldn't be quite behind the eight ball right now.

[clout]

Glad to see the appallingly bad scouting and drafting over the past 10 years called into account. And I don't buy the excuse that winning gave them bad draft position. The Braves won for more than a decade and continued to produce a steady stream of quality prospects.

[Juums]

As we are debating the team's biggest albatross at the moment, I would argue that the biggest impediment to the team's long-term improvement is Cole Hamels. Which I'm fairly certain is a form of blasphemy, so give me a chance to explain before breaking out the pitchforks and torches.

Cole Hamels is really good. Him eating a fifth of the Phils' starts keeps the Phils in a fifth of the games they play. If the surest path to rebuilding is to be bad to improve our draft stock, then his being on the roster is counterproductive, and he should be moved for solely that purpose. That he can bring back several pieces useful to the rebuilding is just an added bonus. This is why, incidentally, I'm perfectly fine with getting between half- and three-quarters of a loaf for Hamels. Whatever value you forfeit by not getting Pederson or Soler or Bogaerts you'll (most likely) still realize from the improved drafting position.

[Juums]

Clout:
The role of bad luck, or karma, or however you want to put it, probably had the most to do with the Phils' terrible drafting from 2004-2012. Drafting at the bottom of the first-round more often than not, as well as forfeiting a few first-round picks, did not help. But the Phils always pursued a high-risk/high-reward drafting strategy prioritizing toolsy athletes with the hope of teaching them baseball skills.

As Jimmy Rollins is leaving Philly, it seems apt to recognize he was probably the greatest success of that drafting strategy. But for every high like Rollins, there's going to be some colossal flameouts, and their names have been myriad. Like Greg Golson. And Anthony Hewitt. And Larry Greene.

One would hope that the Phils would have learned their lesson, which they only belatedly seem to have, though the 2014 draft probably went too far in the other direction.

[bay_area_phan]

It's always fun to play "Who They Picked & Who They Passed Up:"

2003 1st pick: Tim Moss (3rd round). Subsequent picks: Matt Harrison, Jonathan Papelbon.

2004 1st pick: Greg Golson; Next 2 picks in the draft: Glenn Perkins, Phil Hughes; Other later picks: Gio Gonzalez, Huston Street, Hunter Pence, Dustin Pedroia.

2005 1st pick: Mike Costanzo (2nd round); Very next pick: Chase Headley.

Subsequent 2005 Phillies picks (and round): Matt Maloney (3rd), Michael Durant (4th), Brett Harker (5th), Justin Blaine (6th). Guys picked after Justin Blaine: Doug Fister, Micheal Brantley, Will Venable, Jonathan Niese, Austin Jackson, Peter Bourjous.

2006 1st & 2nd round picks: Kyle Drabek and Andrew Carpenter. Guys picked within the next 10 picks after Andrew Carpenter: Trevor Cahill, Justin Masterson, John Jay.

2007 1st pick: Joe Savery. Guys picked after Savery: Rick Porcello, Ben Revere, Todd Frazier.

2007 2nd round pick: Travis D'Arnaud. Guys picked after D'Arnaud: Josh Donaldson, Jordan Zimmerman, Giancarlo Stanton, Freddie Freeman, Jonathan Lucroy, Matt Harvey, Corey Kluber.

2008 1st pick: Anthony Hewitt. 4 and 5 picks later: Gerritt Cole, Lonnie Chisenhall. Subsequent picks: Lance Lynn, Wade Miley,

2008 2nd round pick: Anthony Gose. Subsequent picks: Tyson Ross, Charlie Blackmon, Craig Kimbrel.

2009 1st pick: Kelly Duggan (2nd round). Subsequent picks: Patrick Corbin, Kyle Seager, Wil Myers.

2010 1st pick: Jesse Biddle. Later picks: Taijuan Walker, Drew Smyly, Andrelton Simmons.